Iago Aspas was bad business

In my post about TTI per 90, Iago Aspas came in 2nd at 14.7 last season.  Considering his diminishing minutes as the season progressed, I decided to take a look at the stats from his last campaign at Celta Vigo to see if maybe there was an indication this would happen.

apps (sub)	34
goals	12
assists	7
chances	69
shot acc %	57
shot %	11.8
pass %	77.3
back pass %	61.5
take on %	33.3
TTI per 90	15

Wow, we paid £7.7m for a guy who needed 9 shots per match to score, who passes the ball towards his own goal two-thirds of the time, gives the ball away frequently, and can't dribble passed anyone.

Brendan Rodgers clearly didn't do his homework.  Aspas will turn 27 in August, if he was in his early 20s, I'd say send him out on loan and see if he can improve, but I don't think that's an option anymore.  Celta Vigo must have laughed all the way to the bank.  Rodgers clearly can't continue to spend that kind of money on fringe players without analyzing their game thoroughly.

Who turned over the ball most last season? UPDATED

One thing that drives all football fans crazy is when your team gives away the ball.  Peter Crouch, Luis Garcia, and Momo Sissoko used to bring out the worst in me when they constantly gifted the ball to the opposition.  So I got to wondering who has the worst TTI from last season?  Just for laughs, before I do the research, I'm going to guess either Glen Johnson or Luis Suarez, so let's find out.

	TTI Per 90
Suarez	15.7
Aspas	14.7
Toure	13.4
Sterling	12.1
Enrique	11.3
Coutinho	11
Sturridge	11
Johnson	10.9
Gerrard	10.9
Allen	10.4
Moses	9.9
Henderson	9.5
Flanagan	9.2
Cissokho	8.8
Kelly	8.5
Lucas	7.9
Agger	6.3
Mignolet	6.2
Sakho	6.1
Skrtel	5.3

I found a site that keeps track of minutes played by competition and have re-done the TTI chart accordingly.

Sterling jumped a bunch of spaces to basically second among regulars.  Suarez is still first, but he only went up a little since he plays so much.  Coutinho went from second to 6th, but still 3rd among regular starters.  And what can you say about Aspas? No wonder he rarely sees the pitch.  I think it would be interesting to see if he showed signs of this kind of performance at Celta.

The Centre Back Dillema

One thing that Brendan Rodgers has to address this offseason is the issues at centre back.  Kolo Toure is old and should really only be used as a squad player.  Skrtel and Agger will both turn 30 in December and are starting to show their age.  Sakho has the ability to be all-world, but he appears to lack the discipline.  Sebastian Coates days as a Liverpool player are probably over, which is probably for the best.  That means, unless Tiago Ilori or Conor Coady are ready to step it up, or Rodgers wants to use either Martin Kelly or Andre Wisdom as centre backs (which both are fully capable, just not where they primarily play), we're going to have to bring someone in.  The players who seem to be high on Rodger's list are Dejan Lovren, Steven Caulker, and Mateo Musacchio.  Let's see how they stack up against our current group of centre backs.

	Skrtel	Sakho	Agger	Toure	Lovren	Caulker	Musacchio
app (sub)	36	18(1)	16(4)	15(5)	31	38	32
goals	7	1	2	0	2	5	1
assists	1	0	1	2	1	0	2
chances	7	2	2	7	4	9	8
shot %	46.7	12.5	33.3	0	9.9	14.7	14.3
pass %	90.8	92.5	89.1	86.4	82	74.4	79.5
bp %	23.7	22.6	18.7	20.5	21.5	20.3	16.4
tackles	1.4	1.5	1.4	1.7	2	1.2	2.4
tackle %	50	71.4	55.6	65.1	57.8	55.4	50.9
fouls	0.8	0.6	0.5	0.6	0.8	0.2	1.2
clearances	11.4	7.6	5.7	7.4	7.7	8.6	6
blocked spm	1.1	0.4	0.4	0.7	0.3	1.6	0.5
interceptions	1.7	1.5	1.1	0.8	2.7	1.2	3.4
drib past	0.4	0.3	0.3	0.6	0.5	0.3	0.8
off won	0.4	0.3	0.3	0.1	1.4	0.9	0.6
adwpg	3.6	2.6	2.3	2.2	3.3	3.8	2.2
adwg %	70.1	56	65.2	50.6	61.2	59.3	48.3
de (g)	4(2)	2(0)	3(0)	3(2)	1(1)	0(0)	4(2)
own g	4	0	0	1	0	0	1
TTI	5.2	5.6	5	5.8	10.9	10.1	9.5

First, the surprises: Sakho's 92.5% passing rate is phenomenal while Skrtel's 90.8% is skewed by his back pass rate of 23.7%.  Sakho is also the most consistent tackler with a 71.4% success rate, while Skrtel is worst at a mere 50%.  Steven Caulker took (or tied for) the most categories with 7, but his piss poor pass %, tackle rate, and TTI really hurt him.  Speaking of TTI, I was very surprised to see Lovren be the worst here, errant passes are his biggest fault.  Musacchio's tackle rate is outstanding at 2.4 and a bit unforeseen considering he plays in the less physical La Liga, unfortunately he appears to take too many risks with a 50.9% successful tackle rate.

The Captain Obvious award goes to Kolo Toure, who is old and plays like it. He took home the raspberry for shot %, interceptions, offsides won, and aerial duels won per match, and came close to bottom in three other categories.

We can really tell each player's strengths and weaknesses with these stats, Skrtel is a poor tackler who likes to back pass, but makes up for it by dominating the air and clearing the ball.  Sakho is a great passer and tackler, but not that great in the air, which is probably why those two are paired together.  Agger takes care of the ball, but is not a fan of clearances.  We know what Toure doesn't do, but he did tie for most assists and the third most chances created.

So what about our three potential signings? Well, as I stated before, Lovren's TTI can be a deal breaker, he makes a lot of bad passes and his pass rate of 82% is not impressive.  The other stat that stands out is 2.7 interceptions, which is solid.  He also turns 25 in July.

Caulker seems a bit bipolar.  He can create chances, but he's not a very good passer.  Maybe he's trying too hard or maybe he needs better teammates to feed the ball too. He's only 22 though and his passing can be improved.  Defensively, he doesn't seem to like to tackle, but he's not afraid to block shots nor commit to the air and he's hard to dribble past.  I'm not sure Cardiff can afford to keep him now that they were relegated, but they will probably want to recoup the £8m they paid for him.

Finally, we have Mateo Musacchio, who will turn 24 this August.  His back pass rate (16.4%), tackles per match (2.4), and interceptions per match (3.4) are exemplary, but he is foul prone, only succeeds at 50.9% of his tackles, easily dribbled past, and not very aerial-minded.  He also tied Skrtel with 4 defensive errors that also lead to 2 opposition goals.

Of those three, I honestly think Caulker would be the best.  Lovren is too turnover prone and I don't see Musacchio's game adjusting well to the Prem.  Of course, the dream signing would be Mehdi Benatia from Roma, but he would cost at least £20m.

Glen Johnson vs Kyle Walker

A recent comment stirred my interest.  I'm actually a big fan of Kyle Walker, but I'm not sure if he's more effective than Glen Johnson.  Let's take a look at the stats.

	G. Johnson	K. Walker
apps (sub)	29	26
tackles/pm	2.2	2
interceptions/pm	1.7	2.2
offsides won pm	0.1	0.3
clearances pm	2.4	2.6
dribbled past pm	0.8	1
blocked shots pm	0.3	0.2
aerial duels won pm	1.4	1.8
own goals	1	0
goals	0	1
assists	2	2
chances created	28	31
shots pm	0.7	0.7
passing %	84.1	82.2
passes pm	50.2	53.7
back pass %	45.6	34.9
crosses pm	0.2	0.7
cross %	9.8	20.2
long balls pm (total)	2 (57)	3.8 (100)
long ball %	54.3	60.2
key passes pm (total)	1 (28)	1.2 (31)
successful dribbles pm (total)	1.6 (46)	0.8 (22)
fouls drawn pm (total)	1.3	1.2
dispossessed pm (total)	1.2	1.3
turnovers pm (total)	1.1	0.6
TTI	11.9	12.7

Well, I was wrong.  Walker is more effective and the overall better right back.  He is just as turnover prone as Johnson, but he at least makes it up more on the defensive end.  The stats that stand out most for me are his 34.9 back pass percentage, 20.2 successful cross percentage, and especially his 60.2 long ball success percentage with 100 attempts.  The latter is just ridiculous when you consider he only played in 26 matches.

How is Kyle Walker not in the England side for the WC?  Apparently Phil Jones is second choice and that's just laughable.  Might as well put a cardboard cut-out of a donkey out there, it will do the same as 'El Terminator'.

Was Glen Johnson really that bad against Italy?

There are calls for Johnson to lose his place in the England side due to his 'dismal' performance against Itay at the World Cup, but is it really warranted?  Let's compare him to Leighton Baines, who can step on a puppy and the English press would publish articles about the state of his injured foot.

	Johnson	Baines
chances created	2	2
pass %	90	93
back pass %	36.2	50
tackles	3	2
tackle %	40	33
fouls	1	0
interceptions	0	2
blocked shots	0	0
clearances	0	0
dribbled past	1	1
key passes	2	2
true turnover index	9	4

This is a great example of how my 'true turnover index' can be skewed, especially when it comes to defenders.  Glen Johnson has a higher TTI simply because he had more possession of the ball.  He possessed the ball 15 more times than Baines and England's attack was 15% more from Johnson's side of the pitch.  Of course, that doesn't excuse bad shot selection.

Defensively, Johnson did little if nothing, but he also had less opportunity than Baines.  Italy's attack was more focused on the right side of pitch than the left, 38% to 27%.  He did have more tackles and a higher tackle % though, despite Baines' 2 interceptions.

Where Johnson is clearly better is passing.  Baines had the higher passing percentage, but half of his passes were toward his own goal, which is really not a good thing when you are a left back.  Johnson's 36.2% back pass rating is outstanding to say the least, especially paired with his 90% success rate, but his attacking abilities have never really been questioned.

The bottom line is, if Johnson should be dropped, so should Baines and probably most of the first team for that matter as really only Sturridge put on an outstanding performance.  He never has been and never will be a top class defender, but he is an above average attacking right back.

Pepe Reina or Simon Mignolet?

Since Napoli have admitted they won't be able to pay Pepe Reina to stay, he may be sold to Arsenal at a discount of £5m.  I think most would agree it would be bad business to sell Reina to a competing club like Arsenal, but what if a lesser club like West Brom or even Villa come knocking?  Should Reina be given the chance to be our number 1 again?  Should we try to keep him as a back-up? I don't know about anyone else, but I wasn't exactly blown away by Mignolet last season.  Let's look at the stats, two seasons ago for Reina and last season for Mignolet, league matches only.

	Reina	Mignolet
matches (sub)	31	38
clean sheets	14	10
goals allowed per	1.1	1.32
saves per match	1.35	1.97
saves per goal	1.27	1.7
avg claim success %	89	96
dist. success %	75	69
pass success %	70.8	67.3
aerial duel win %	85.7	83.3
long ball success %	45.8	39

The most important stats here are saves per goal and average claim success percentage, both of which go to Mignolet.  The 7% difference between the two keepers in ACSP is crippling to Reina if he has any aspirations to win his old job back.  It is an indication of what many think of the 31-year-old Spaniard: he takes unnecessary risks and has frequent momentary lapses of reason and concentration.

In his last couple of seasons, Reina appeared to be more interested in trying to create goal scoring opportunities instead of trying to prevent them.  The thing is, he's quite good at contributing to the attack, much more so than Mignolet, but what's the point if you can't do your primary job as a keeper?  I would even argue that Reina had a better defense in front of him than Mignolet does now.

Reina had Jamie Carragher and a healthy Jose Enrique for most of the season.  Though Carra was in his twilight year, he knew his limitations, made few mistakes, and was in command of Liverpool's defense, even when he wasn't on the pitch.  When he was, Carragher rarely went forward as much as Agger, Skrtel, and Sakho tend to.  The thing about Mignolet is that he doesn't take command like a keeper should and if that doesn't change, he should find his way somewhere else soon.

Sterling showed his strengths, but exposed his weaknesses vs Italy

There's no doubting that Raheem Sterling did an outstanding job introducing himself to the world yesterday.  It is nothing new to us Liverpool fans who have followed his progression the past four years.  Unfortunately, what he does worse was just as apparent as what he does well. His defense and ability to hold on to the ball left much to be desired:

chances created	1
back pass %	57.6
errant passes	3
shots	3
shot %	0
dispossessed	2
take ons	4
unsuccessful to	3
turnovers	1
true turnover index	13

He basically did two things good, albeit very good, he set-up England's only goal with a brilliant pass to Rooney and he treated the Italian defenders like orange cones, dribbling pass them at will.  That's all fine and dandy, but most of it was all for nothing.

A back pass % of 57.6 for a winger is abominable.  That means of his 33 pass attempts, 19 of them were toward his own goal and at least one of those fell into Italy's possession going in the direction they so desired.  True turnover index takes in effect whenever a player gives possession over to the other team either by shots that lead to opposition possession, errant pass, dispossession, unsuccessful take on, or offensive foul (including offside).  Sterling had the worst TTI of Englishman on the pitch.  In comparison, Rooney had a TTI of 10, Henderson and Sturridge each had a 9, Gerrard had an 8, and Welbeck had a 7.

As I stated in my last post though, I'd much rather have a player who takes risk, but the results have to prove positive.  Sterling's back pass percentage severely skews his stats and makes it seem that he is not as risky and turnover prone than he actually is.  He is only 19 though and a whole lot of fun to watch: http://vimeo.com/98246489.