Saturday, June 21, 2014

Alberto Moreno isn't worth £16m

Sure, he's 21, but will he develop into the all-round left back we need? Let's compare him to Jon Flanagan and Jose Enrique over the last two seasons.

MorenoFlanaganEnrique
2012-1313-1410-1213-1412-1313-14
app(subs)12(3)27(2)122325(4)6(2)
mins10832414100418902257604
goals030120
assist100142
chances819513268
gcp900.80.1100.10.240
ccp900.670.710.450.621.041.2
pass%78.178.979.483.780.480.4
bp%4536.5-42.63740.8
sacc%2017042.936.433.3
shot%013014.39.10
tack pm1.91.81.73.42.51.3
tack %37.839.6-45.775.353.3
int pm3.12.51.81.71.21.1
off won pm0.300.20.10.20.1
clear pm2.81.51.53.32.52.5
dribb past pm1.10.80.81.70.30.3
bs pm0.30.30.20.20.10.1
adwon pm0.70.90.51.30.40.3
adwon%47.85052.646.838.222.2
own goals000000
TTI9010.48.569.215.611.3
*Note: Jon Flanagan's '1st season' are his stats from league appearances from 2010-12.*

At a glance, Moreno is not much of an upgrade from Flanagan and no where near as good as a healthy Enrique.  All he really brings to the table is a better interception and blocked shot rate, which is admirable, but not worth £16m.

Enrique does turnover the ball significantly more than the other two, but his back pass rate tells me that it is probably primarily in the opposition third and his chances created per 90 somewhat makes up for his risk-taking.

We definitely need more coverage at left back, but I don't think Alberto Moreno is the answer.  He would probably be a solid addition to the squad, but if you are going to spend £16m, you should be buying a Sakho and not an Aspas.

Friday, June 20, 2014

Suarez was not even the best LFC player on the pitch for England vs Uruguay

In fact, I would argue he was the worst.  It's amazing how a little luck and a lot of skill can cloak such a poor performance.  Not to take anything away from his brilliant finishing, but if it wasn't for a great pass from Cavani and an errant header from Gerrard, Suarez would probably be ridiculed for his erroneous-filled effort. A look at the stats is even more damning:

SuarezJohnsonSturridgeSterlingGerrardHenderson
mins889090649087
goals200000
assists010000
chances130011
gcp902.0510000
ccp901.0230011.03
pass%678373867489
bp%65.232.234.65029.321.7
cross att1131171
succ cross000020
cross %000028.60
sacc%5006000100
shot%5000000
take on0/11/23/55/61/11/2
take %0506083.310050
dispo321501
offside201000
fouled113100
fouls301310
tack 120031
tack %5067006050
int000011
off won000000
clear230043
clear %10010000100100
shot blk000010
adwon221221
adwon%50405066100100
TTI17131610128

Suarez was the inferior passer by a mile, completing only 67% of his passes despite 65.2% were towards his own goal.  He also attempted and failed 11 crosses, that's the same amount of all the other LFC players combined considering Gerrard had two successful.  He also had the highest TTI and that doesn't even account for crosses that changed possession.

If I had to pick the best player, statistically speaking, it would be Jordan Henderson.  His passing was outstanding, especially considering his incredibly low back pass rate and the fact that he lead all players with 60 attempts.  If he had only scored on his lone attempt, we would be talking about him today as the MotM instead of Suarez.

The only player who gave Suarez a run for his money was Sterling.  Had he not been subbed out in the 64th minute, he very well could have had a higher TTI, but his passing and take-on numbers were both superior.

The decline of Glen Johnson? I think not.

A recent comment spurred my interest on whether or not Glen Johnson is actually 'in decline'.  He does turn 30 years old this August, so it's probably time to start shopping for a long term replacement. Martin Kelly is unreliable with all his injury issues and I guess the jury is still out on Andre Wisdom.  It wouldn't hurt to have 3-4 players vying for the starting job.  Let's take a look at his stats from the Prem for his duration at Liverpool:

2009-102010-112011-122012-132013-14
app(subs)24(1)2822(1)3629
mins21372437195232262515
goals32111
assist32042
chances3728224731
gcp900.250.150.050.130.11
ccp901.61.031.011.311.11
pass%81.678.583.982.284.1
bp%---44.445.6
sacc%28.62818.518.525
shot%10.784.51.95
tack pm32.51.92.52.2
tack %---61.355.9
int pm2.41.71.91.61.7
off won pm0.20.20.10.20.1
clear pm2.62.91.93.32.4
dribb past pm0.80.60.50.80.8
bs pm0.10.30.30.30.3
adwon pm0.91.10.81.81.4
adwon%73.38061.357.445
own goals10001
TTI901310.911.212.311.9

Well, at first glance, it looks like the reports of his decline are unfounded, but he is wholly inconsistent throughout the past five seasons.  The only stat that actually declines each season is aerial duels won percentage, but he still won more aerial duels per match last season than he did 3 of the other 4.  More effort as he gets older?  That's just odd.

He did record his best pass percentage for a season last campaign and his 45.6 back pass percentage is not that bad, he is a defensive player after all.  There really isn't any clear indication of his 'decline', but do his stats hold up against some of the top right backs in Europe?

JohnsonDebuchyAlvesJantschkeBeriaDeSilvestri
age292931243126
app(subs)2928(1)26(1)312635
mins251524922385274522433082
goals112102
assist233102
chances312338111435
gcp900.110.140.190.0700.06
ccp901.110.831.430.360.561.02
pass%84.172.887.390.173.277.2
bp%45.626.842.835.331.738.8
sacc%2537.12542.93033.3
shot%52.96.314.3011.1
tack pm2.23.331.81.92.1
tack %55.955.543.243.658.646.9
int pm1.72.422.32.91.8
off won pm0.10.10.10.50.20.3
clear pm2.44.81.26.13.24.3
dribb past pm0.80.81.30.70.70.7
bs pm0.30.400.70.20.1
adwon pm1.441.23.12.93.3
adwon%4569.742.755.272.169.5
own goals110000
TTI9011.912.611.96.81410.4

Though Johnson takes last in four major categories here, he pretty much holds his own against these guys.  Dani Alves, who is certainly one of, if not the, best right backs in the game is by far the best on attack, but woeful on defense.  He tied for or was worst in 7 of the 9 defensive categories, but took 5 of 9 on the attacking end.  Talk about bipolar.

Tony Jantschke of Borussia Mönchengladbach is probably the most impressive of the group, his lack of chances created appear to be hindered by his exclusion from the Gladbach attack.  Why that is I have no idea, maybe he likes playing defense, he certainly excels at it, but his passing is on point (without having to back pass much I might add) and his shot selection is the best of this group.  Maybe Rodgers should bring him in so his centre backs can go forward when they get bored, he doesn't seem to mind staying back and he's valued at a meager £5m.

The bottom line is Johnson still looks to have a couple of more seasons left in him.  Bringing another right back in may prolong Johnson's career, but he also might look to leave and get more playing time at a smaller club.  Unless we are going to bring in a young, dynamic right back who excels on both sides of the ball and doesn't cost an arm and a donkey, why not let Kelly and Wisdom deputize for a season?

Thursday, June 19, 2014

Alexis Sanchez for £20m is too good to be true

Though it's hard to believe anyone would offer £26m for Adam Lallana, what's even more unimaginable is Barcelona letting Alexis Sanchez go for only £20m.  Considering that they paid £22m for him from Udinese, it is probably only media-created rubbish.  According to SkySportsBarça has come out and said Sanchez is not for sale.  Juventus apparently offered £12m for him, that's just insulting, but I bet Barcelona would have second thoughts if someone came in for £30m and would probably jump to sell at £35m.  But is he worth it?

The thing about Sanchez is that he's a goal creating machine, not only for himself, but for his teammates as well.  His chances created per 90 is only a 1.8, which is not bad, but his goals created per 90 is a solid 1.1.  For some perspective, Suarez' gcp90 is 1.3 and Sturridge's is the same as Sanchez at 1.1.  Adding the Chilean would be devastating to opponent's defenses as those three could average 3.5 goals created per match just by themselves.

He is also a deadly shooter.  52.8% of shots were on goal and 20% overall found the back of the net.  He bettered both Suarez (44.8%) and Sturridge (42.4%) in the accuracy department, but Sturridge bettered him on shot percentage at 21.2 with Suarez having a very respectable 17.1%.

Sanchez does have his faults though, his back pass percentage is a horrid 63.7%, which means even his meager 79.7% passing rate is not even that good going forward.  Also his TTI90 is 13, which would put him behind only Suarez among regular starters for Liverpool.  Surprisingly though, he's a decent tackler with a per match rate of 2.2 and a success percentage of 47.6.

The bottom line is that Alexis Sanchez will not turn 26 until December, which means he has plenty of productive years in front of him.  I don't think we'll try and buy him, but I don't see how it would hurt to put £25-28m on the table to see if they budge.  We can add Borini and Assaidi to the deal, so we can save face when they sell them to Sunderland and Stoke at a discount.

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