Southampton must be laughing all the way to the bank

What a terrible bit of business.  Buying Lallana for a reported £27m may end up being worse than United buying Herrera for £32m.  He wasn't even the most efficient attacking midfielder at Southampton last season and furthermore he didn't separate himself enough from his teammates to justify his price tag.

	Lallana	Rodriguez	Davis	Ward-Prose	Ramirez
age	26	24	29	19	23
app (sub)	37(1)	30(3)	28(6)	16(18)	3(15)
mins	3082	2561	2492	1616	526
goals	9	15	2	0	1
assists	6	3	7	2	3
chances	68	20	57	39	14
npg90	0.26	0.53	0.07	0	0.17
gcp90	0.44	0.63	0.32	0.11	0.69
ccp90	1.9	0.7	2.1	2.2	2.4
ap90	0.21	0.11	0.25	0.11	0.52
ccv	11.1	14.3	11.9	5	21.7
pass %	84.6	76.6	84.3	87.2	80.9
bp %	50.3	49	42.4	43.6	38.9
sacc %	41.4	31.7	21.8	35	23.8
shot %	18	14.9	6	0	4.8
TTI90	13.9	12.9	13.2	9.2	19.5
avg rk	2.9	3	3.1	3.3	2.6

Gaston Ramirez who played sparsely due to falling out of favor with Pochettino and injuries comes out on top. Lallana comes second, but only barely ahead of Rodriguez & Steven Davis. If Lallana is worth £27m, Rodriguez is worth at least that much being he is 2 years younger and Steven Davis should not be sold for anything less than £20m. And what about 19-year-old James Ward-Prose? He is already a better passer and turns over the ball much less at 7 years Lallana's junior. He's got to be worth £50m to Man United and at least £30m to the rest of the Prem.

Those numbers above are not worth £27 and the argument that it is because 'he's English' just proves my point. He's a product of the English press hype machine. We paid £8.8m for Coutinho, less than one-third what we did for Lallana, the Brazilian is still only 22-years-old and already a better player.  Basically we just paid that much for someone to keep the seats warm for Gerrard, Hendo, Sterling, Can, and Coutinho.

We should have signed Dusan Tadic, not Lallana

With the announcement of our signing Adam Lallana forthcoming, I have not held back on my disappoint of his transfer.  He is just not good enough and brings nothing to our side that we don't already have a better version.  We need to bring players that offer a special dynamic, not one who actually created less chances and had less assists last season than his 29-year-old unheralded teammate, Steven Davis.  Here are last season stats for Dusan Tadic and Quincy Promes, who play for FC Twente in the Eredivisie, Lucas Piaźon, a Chelsea player who played for Vitesse, and Lallana, Sterling, and Coutinho:

	Tadic	Promes	Piaźon	Lallana	Sterling	Coutinho
age	25	22	20	26	19	22
app (sub)	33	31	24(5)	37(1)	24(9)	28(5)
mins	2970	2724	2106	3082	2220	2323
goals	16	11	11	9	9	5
assists	14	8	8	6	5	7
chances	133	84	78	68	51	64
npg90	0.27	0.36	0.34	0.26	0.36	0.19
gcp90	0.9	0.63	0.81	0.41	0.57	0.47
ccp90	4	2.8	3.3	1.9	2.1	2.5
pass %	79.3	82.3	81.7	84.6	81.7	80.6
bp %	45.4	52.2	52.3	50.3	46.8	36.7
sacc %	37.4	34	39.1	41.4	48.9	28.7
shot %	17.6	11	15.9	18	20	7
TTI90	16.1	12.7	14	13.9	12.1	11

Tadic's 133 chances created is beyond impressive, it is phenomenal.  He had 40 more than Antonio Cassano in Serie A, who finished second in all of Europe with 93, and 49 more than teammate Quincy Promes, who finished second in the Eredivisie with 84.

An interesting stat that I've been toying with is chance created efficiency, the percentage of chances created that actually results in goals.  A player can create chances all day, but if it doesn't result in goals, it usually produces a loss of possession.  Tadic has a 22.6% cce while Lallana has a 20.6%, which doesn't seem much of a difference, but when you consider the amount of key passes it's why Tadic has created twice as many goals while playing in a full less match.  Sterling, by the way, has the best of the above group at a very impressive 27.1% cce.

The bottom line is we could have bought a playmaker with Fabregas ability for £12-15m, but instead we paid £23-26m for a player with Kevin Mirallas skills.  Mirallas isn't bad, but he's far from great, and when his days at Anfield are over, I hope Lallana gets at least that much respect.

How much will United pay for Dirk Kuyt?

After dishing out ridiculous sums for turnover prone 25-year-old, Ander Herrera, and the nemesis of Victor Moses, Luke Shaw, they are now linked to splash the cash for soon-to-be 34-year-old former 'Liverpool Legend', Dirk Kuyt. I use 'legend' in the loosest sense there, but Kuyt is much more deserving than say, Roy Hodgson.

Dirk Kuyt's evolution as a footballer is interesting to say the least.  At FC Utrecht and especially Feyenoord in the Eredivisie, he was a poacher, a goal-scoring machine.  Unfortunately, he didn't have the pace to translate his finishing skills in the Prem and had to change his approach if he wanted to survive.  So he became a more complete player, a blue collar one mind you, but good enough to earn a starting place as a supporting striker.  His determination to stay and fight for a place at Liverpool after a disappointing first season instead of returning to the Eridivise where he could have easily reverted back to his prolific poaching ways was a testament to his character.

In his first season at Liverpool, he had one assist in 34 appearances, in his second he had 8 in 32.  In his final three seasons he had a chance created per 90 of 1.79, but it was not just his ability to make important passes that improved, he became a defensive forward, if one ever existed.  From 2009-2012, he averaged 1.91 tackles per 90 and 1.56 int per 90, for perspective, during that same period, Rooney contributed 0.63 tp90 and 0.42 intp90, a massive difference.

His latest rebirth as a left wing back for the Netherlands in the World Cup apparently has spurned Van Gaal into thinking about taking him to United when the Dutch coach starts his term there.  If I can say so sans punishment, playing the heavy-footed Kuyt at that position actually is a genius move, it takes advantage of his strengths and less exposes his weaknesses.  His contributions have been solid on both ends of the pitch and the coverage he provides for Daley Blind is pricelesss, but will it translate in the Prem?

The potential big winner here is Fenerbache.  With United willing to pay double and triple a player's valuation, the Turkish club could possibly get £10m for a player they bought for £880,000.

The evolution of Raheem Sterling (or why we may not need Suarez anymore)

Rumor has it Real Madrid is very high on Raheem Sterling.  I'm not sure how realistic their intentions are, but if it is true, we need to do everything we can to hold on to him.  He is ultimately more important than Suarez because he is 19-years-old and exhibits 'Messi class' potential.  If he gets even remotely close to that, he's worth what ever LFC has to pay him.

I was curious to see what Sterling's potential output of the next two seasons could be, so using a very simple projection model based on his progression over the last two seasons, I came up with this:

	2012-13	2013-14	2014-15	2015-16
age	18	19	20	21
app (sub)	19(5)	24(9)	27(7)	28(8)
mins	1748	2220	2520	2935
goals	2	9	23	32
assists	2	5	7	10
chances	37	51	60	72
npg90	0.1	0.36	0.82	0.98
gcp90	0.21	0.57	1.07	1.29
ccp90	1.91	2.06	2.14	2.21
TTI90	12.3	12.1	12	11.7

Before anyone takes leave of their senses, these are max potential projections.  I'm not saying Sterling won't score more than 23 goals next season, but it's highly unlikely.  What is probable though is that he'll have more than 7 assists and that his goal created per 90 will be around 1.07.  Let's say he only reaches 80% of his goal max, which means he scores 18 goals.  To reach a 1.07 gcp90, he'll need 12 total assists, a very realistic achievement.

As you might have noticed, with these projections, Sterling will break the Prem goal scoring record in two years.  The chances of that happening are as likely as Everton winning the league.  In fact, if he accounts for 42 goals created, it will be tied for Drogba (2009-10) for second most all-time next to Suarez from last season.  Probably not going to happen either but even if he has a 60% goal output, he finishes with 19 goals plus 10 assists, which is a decent season to say the least.

I was curious to see the progression of Messi from age 18 to 21, for a possible comparison.  Unfortunately, 'chances created' is a relatively new recorded stat, so I only included what I could.

	2005-6	2006-7	2007-8	2008-9
age	18	19	20	21
app (sub)	11(6)	23(3)	23(5)	27(4)
mins	909	1995	1998	2513
goals	2	14	10	23
assists	6	2	12	11
npg90	0.2	0.63	0.27	0.72
gcp90	0.8	0.72	0.99	1.22

Interestingly enough, his goal creation regressed from age 18 to 19 and if you take away his penalty goals, he actually only had an open field goal creation of 0.81 at age 20.  Lack of chances created makes it awfully hard to compare the two players.  By just these stats alone, Messi is far and way the better player, but will Sterling have a lapse in his career next season like the Argentinian did?  I guess we'll have to wait and see.

I'm not saying Sterling will ever reach the heights of Messi, but he does possess the potential to do so. You don't get mentioned in the same breathe as Real Madrid if you don't. 

Toby Alderweireld: A good signing but only at the right price

According to reports, the player in which we are latest linked is Atletico Madrid and Belgium defender, Toby Alderweireld.  The 25-year-old former Ajax player has become frustrated with his lack of playing time at Atletico and is looking to go elsewhere, despite only joining the La Liga champions last summer.  His preferred position is centre back, but has also provided cover at right back for club and country.  Here's how he sizes up statistically against Sakho, Skrtel, Agger, and Old Man Toure:

	Alderweireld	Sakho	Skrtel	Agger	Toure
age	25	24	29	29	old
app(subs)	17(3)	18(1)	36	16(4)	15(5)
mins	1576	1478	3221	1421	1443
goals	1	1	7	2	0
assist	0	0	1	1	2
chances	0	2	7	2	7
npgp90	0.06	0.06	0.2	0.13	0
gcp90	0.06	0.06	0.22	0.19	0.13
ccp90	0	0.12	0.2	0.13	0.44
pass%	81.6	92.5	90.8	89.1	86.4
bp%	24.9	22.6	23.7	18.7	20.5
sacc%	50	10	53.3	42.8	14.3
shot%	12.5	10	46.7	28.6	0
tp90	2.5	1.6	1.4	1.7	2.1
tack %	58.5	71.4	50	55.6	65.1
intp90	1.4	1.6	1.7	1.3	0.9
clrp90	6.1	8.3	11.5	7.2	9.2
dribpp90	0.4	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.4
bsp90	0.6	0.4	1.1	0.5	0.8
adwp90	1.7	2.9	3.6	2.8	2.7
adwon%	75	56	70.1	65.2	50.6
TTI90	8.5	5.6	5.2	5	5.8
avg rank	3.44	3.06	2	2.69	3.25

His overall ranking of 3.44 is last among the group, in fact, statistically the only thing that could even be deemed 'impressive' is his aerial duels won percentage. He is comparable in many fields, but do we really want to waste our time with a seemingly average player?  It's hard to use the 'potential argument' for a 25-year-old, that's the United way, but he does impress in this video, especially with his passing:

Alderweireld is valued at around £9m, but that's just too high.  Atletico bought him for £6.16m and being that they appear not to care whether he stays or not, maybe they'll take £7m or £7.5m.  We can throw in Aspas to carry the ball bags as well.  If we can get him for that, I'd say go for it, then at the very least  we'll have coverage at right back.

Roy Hodgson: the worst Liverpool manager ever?

Seems to be the sexy thing these days to ridicule Ole Roy Boy, but is he really the worst Liverpool manager ever?  Worse than Don Welsh or George Patterson? I'm not so sure, but I will say he is the worst since I've followed the club.  Let's take a look at his transfers:

Players In	Club	Fee
Joe Cole	Chelsea	Free
Danny Wilson	Rangers	£2m
Christian Poulsen	Juventus	£4.55m
Brad Jones	Middlesborough	£2.3m
Raul Meireles	Porto	£11.5m
Paul Konchesky	Fulham	£3.5m
Players Out
Albert Riera	Olympiacos	£3.3m
Diego Cavalieri	Cesena	£3m
Krisztian Nemeth	Olympiacos	£1m
Javier Mascherano	Barcelona	£17.25m
Lauri Dalla Valle	Fulham	£750k
Alex Kacaniklic	Fulham	£750k
Damien Plesis	Panathinaikos	Undisclosed
Charles Itandje	Atromitos	Free

He brought in Paul Konchesky for £3.5m and sent youngsters Dalla Valle and Kacaniklic the other way to Fulham.  Konchesky was 29-years-old at the time and Hodgson thought he could be the solution at left back? He's Paul Konchesky, he couldn't even find a place in any other Premier League side when he left. Hodgson should have been sacked for buying him alone.  The worse part is Kacaniklic turned out to be a pretty good player and Emiliano Insua, who plays for Atletico Madrid now I might add, was sent out on loan to make room.

Out of all his purchases, Brad Jones solely remains at the club and really only Raul Meireles was a good buy.  I like Joe Cole, but he was also 29-years-old and frankly past it, Danny Wilson never panned out and was sent back to Scotland where helped get Hearts relegated last season, and Poulsen was a knob.

In defense of Hodgson, which I can't believe I just wrote that, he did get rid of some dead weight.  Riera wasn't working out, there was no place for Cavalieri, Nemeth's and Plesis' potential never came to fruition, and Itandje became a pariah for his disrespectful Hillsborough display.  The loss of Mascherano was a crushing blow, but he wanted to leave and Hodgson didn't appear to care if he stayed or not.

Roy Hodgson's 41.94 winning percentage is the worst of any Liverpool manager in the last 23 years and the worst in the last 58 years save Ronnie Moran's 10 match stint as caretaker manager in 1991 and the brief Houllier/Evans joint reign in 1998. Under Hodgson, we lost to Blackpool and Wolverhampton at Anfield. Blackpool was relegated that season and the Wolves avoided the drop by just one point.  We sat in 19th place 8 matches into the season and were eliminated from the League Cup by League Two side, Northampton Town.

There's no doubt Hodgson's term was a disaster. He sums it up best when talking about our 'amazing' comeback draw with Sunderland on Semptember 25th at Anfield: "The way we came back from 2-1 down was very commendable and towards the end of the game we were creating a lot of chances. We deserved our point." It was not even a deserved draw, but Hodgson seems content with it. A good manager would have said how we played like shite, our first goal shouldn't have counted, and our performance unacceptable and didn't meet Liverpool standards, instead of 'oh well, jolly good match, we got a point.'

Hodgson is clearly past it.  His tactics that have worked for him for '35 years' don't work for big clubs.  He was a failure with Liverpool and should probably go manage in the Championship.  His beloved Fulham are right there waiting and Felix Magath would most likely be happy to step aside.

Lazar Markovic: quick as Messi, crafty as Zlatan

The player we have latest been linked to is Benfica and Serbian winger/striker Lazar Markovic.  He is 20-years-old, 175cm (5'9"), lightning quick, and has a skill set that reminds me of Zlatan Ibrahimovic.

For some reason finding statistics for Liga Sagres is very difficult, even if I spoke Portuguese.  I won't even get into stats from the Serbian SuperLiga, if anything more than superficial exist.  Here's what I could throw together:

app (sub)	96
mins	6318
goals	19
assists	18
chances	7*
npg90	0.27
gcp90	0.53
ccp90	0.88*
pass	316**
att	398**
pass %	79.4*
bp %	60.6*
sacc %	50*
shot %	12.5**
TTI90	9**

* stats are only from European matches in 2013-14 for Benfica

** stats are from European matches in 2012-13 for Partizan Belgrade & 2013-14 for Benfica

Overall, not that impressive, but he does show flashes of brilliance and he did just turn 20 in March.  He also tends to command influence in his performances as shown in this video:

Is he worth the £25m though? Potentially yes, but it's quite risky.  He's an exciting player with a decade of football ahead of him.  Statistically, he doesn't blow anyone away, especially his back pass percentage, but he does create a goal every other match.

I'm not one who advocates spending that kind of cash for a potential superstar, but I'm on the fence with Markovic.  There's just something about him that makes me think he's going to be quite special in a few years and it would be a shame if Liverpool lost out.

Sturridge & Lambert just as good as Rooney & RVP

I'm obsessed... with numbers that is.  Yesterday I wrote a piece about how Man U severrely skewed the market for overpaying for Herrera and Luke Shaw.  Needless  to say, I got some interesting responses from our second favorite club's fans.  Some of those referred to Rickie Lambert not being the best choice as our man up front, which is ignorant in itself as we all know Sturridge will play there as long as he's healthy.

It goes without saying that Sturridge & Suarez are eons better than Rooney & Van Persie, but Sturridge & Lambert are at least comparable.  Here are each pair's combined stats from last season:

	Sturridge & Lambert	Rooney & RVP
goals	34	29
assists	17	13
chances	82	72
npg90	0.55	0.54
gcp90	0.9	0.94
ccp90	1.4	1.6
pass %	73.5	79.4
bp %	46.1	49
sacc %	39.2	39.3
shot %	16	17.8
TTI90	27.3	25.9

As you can see, not much difference.  Of course, Rooney and RVP cost Man United £71m when adjusted for inflation, while Sturridge and Lambert only cost LFC £19m, which is £52m less for all you math-challenged Mancunians.  That would have been plenty to buy Herrera and Shaw for a club that knows how to negotiate a transfer.