Forget Lovren, we've got Kevin Stewart now

It is baffling that the signing of Kevin Stewart is deemed 'news'.  What is more pathetic though is when a blog sensationalizes and exaggerates to trick people into visiting their site by calling Stewart a 'Prem' defender.  He is 20-years-old and has played a grand total of zero Prem minutes.  Unless Rodgers thinks he'll be some sort of late bloomer, what's the point?  Is Ilori and/or Coates, as long as the latter is here, going to get a chance?  We need a player who is going to challenge for a starting spot and Stewart isn't that.

Dejan Lovren, on the other hand, could. The 25-year-old Southampton and Serbian international anchored a very solid Saints defense last season.  In fact, in my overall defense ranking table, the South Coast side finished third, only a point from being tied top with Chelsea and Crystal Palace.  As I have said, I don't think individual defensive stats hold much water, but I do think in the very least, you can find fault and strength. Here are Lovren's stats from last season along with those of Sakho, Skrtel, Agger, and Old Man Toure.

	Lovren	Sakho	Skrtel	Agger	Toure
age	25	24	29	29	34
app(subs)	31	18(1)	36	16(4)	15(5)
mins	2787	1478	3221	1421	1443
goals	2	1	7	2	0
assist	1	0	1	1	2
chances	4	2	7	2	7
npgp90	0.07	0.06	0.2	0.13	0
gcp90	0.1	0.06	0.22	0.19	0.13
ccp90	0.13	0.12	0.2	0.13	0.44
ap90	0.03	0	0.03	0.06	0.13
ccv	0.23	0	0.15	0.46	0.3
pass%	82	92.5	90.8	89.1	86.4
bp%	21.5	22.6	23.7	18.7	20.5
sacc%	15.2	10	53.3	42.8	14.3
shot%	9	10	46.7	28.6	0
tp90	2	1.6	1.4	1.7	2.1
tack %	57.8	71.4	50	55.6	65.1
intp90	2.7	1.6	1.7	1.3	0.9
clrp90	7.7	8.3	11.5	7.2	9.2
dribpp90	0.5	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.4
bsp90	0.3	0.4	1.1	0.5	0.8
adwp90	3.3	2.9	3.6	2.8	2.7
adwon%	61.2	56	70.1	65.2	50.6
TTI90	10.4	5.6	5.2	5	5.8

So what does Lovren do well? Interceptions and aerial duels certainly stand out.  Though it's kind of disconcerting that he's easily taken off the dribble more than the other four, especially Toure.  It questions his pace and quickness.  He also turns over the ball significantly more and he had less touches than Skrtel, so the 'Suarez' factor does not come into play.

Is he worth the reported £20m that it may cost to bring him in? Absolutely not.  If he alone was the reason the Saints defense was so good, yes, but they have/had Schneiderlin, Wanyama, Fonte, Clyne, and Shaw.  None of those five, save Shaw, is worth that much, and that's only because Shaw is 19.  I'd rather us just try and sigh Steven Caulker. 

Emre Can will be boss

I remember back in the day when Momo Sissoko galloped across the pitch to and fro, wreaking havoc, it's just too bad he couldn't hold on to the ball.  Well Emre Can, our latest signee, can and does, he just needs to sharpen his passing skills and decision-making.  Here's how he matches up with his new teammates (stats from last season, Can played at Leverkusen in the Bundesliga):

	Can	Lucas	Allen	Gerrard	Henderson
age	20	27	25*	34	24
app (sub)	24(5)	20(7)	15(9)	33(1)	35
mins	2190	1896	1443	2895	3129
goals	3	0	1	13	4
assists	3	0	0	13	7
chances	16	13	18	67	62
npg90	0.12	0	0.06	0.09	0.11
gcp90	0.25	0	0.06	0.81	0.32
ccp90	0.7	0.62	1.13	2.1	1.78
ap90	0.12	0	0	0.4	0.2
ccv	0.17	0	0	0.19	0.11
pass %	77.9	90.8	86.7	85.9	87.1
bp %	39.6	30.3	38	30.6	41.2
sacc %	31.4	22	42.1	51.7	0.15
shot %	12	0	5.3	27.1	0.12
TTI90	13.2	7.9	9.8	10.9	9.7
tp90	3.1	4.2	4.2	3	2.4
t%	44.8	43	56	52.2	42.8

Can certainly holds his own with the exception of passing and turnovers, but he's only 20 and the guidance of Rodgers should help.  His versatility is what makes him exciting, he clearly is more of a box-to-box midfielder, but can play at the holding spot as well.  He sort of reminds me of a young Gerrard or Yaya Toure, when the latter was at Olympiacos & Monaco.

The thing Can will have to display most of all is discipline.  If he's playing defensive midfield, he must be cautious about going forward, but I'd rather see him be something of a factor on the attack unlike Lucas, who prefers not to get involved except via long balls.  Man City's DMs go forward all the time, but when you pair a Yaya Toure with either Fernandinho or Javi Garcia, you always have coverage.  So does that mean we should start Lucas and Can together? If it gets to that, it probably means Gerrard and Henderson are both out due to injury or discipline, which I don't think anyone wishes for.  It would be great to see it as an experiment in a cup tie though.

Another interesting aspect is that Can can play left back.  He did so for 10 matches last season at Leverkusen.  In fact he got some of his highest match ratings on whoscored playing that position:

His talent alone makes him a steal at £9.75m, but his versatility may make Rodgers look like a genius.

Huntelaar to replace Suarez?

There are reports that we are interested in bringing in Klaas-Jan Huntelaar to 'replace' Suarez.  First and foremost, Suarez is not 'replaceable' except for maybe by Messi.  Bringing in Huntelaar would be purely on his goal-scoring prowess and not his goal creation ability, though Suarez trumps him in both regards.  Huntelaar, who had that crazy period where he jumped from Ajax to Real Madrid to Milan to Schalke in little over two seasons, has actually settled at the Bundesliga side for four seasons now.  Here is the output of him and Suarez from last season.

	Huntelaar	Suarez
age	31*	27
app (sub)	17(1)	33
mins	1454	2962
goals	12	31
assists	0	12
chances	9	87
npg90	0.74	0.94
gcp90	0.74	1.3
ccp90	0.56	2.6
ap90	0	0.37
ccv	0	0.14
pass %	74.5	74.8
bp %	41.8	44.1
sacc %	41.8	44.8
shot %	21.8	17.1
TTI90	11.5	17

*Huntelaar will turn 31 in early August.

Huntelaar is only better at one thing, shot selection, but not significantly.  He does appear to hold on to the ball better, but Suarez has approximately 37.3% more touches per match.

Other than the fact that Huntelaar will struggle to make up for the loss of goals provided by Suarez, he will provide little to no assists nor chances created.  Also, he'll be 31 this August and though the season before last he regained his 'Ajax form', he has battled niggling injuries much of the past four seasons at Schalke.  Here are his stats from the past five seasons:

	2009-10	2010-11	2011-12	2012-13	2013-14
	Milan	Schalke	Schalke	Schalke	Schalke	Totals
age	27	28	29	30	31
app (sub)	11(14)	22(2)	32	26	17(1)	108(17)
mins	1046	1986	2796	2225	1454	9507
goals	7	8	29	10	12	66
assists	0	1	8	4	0	13
chances	5	11	39	22	9	86
npg90	0.52	0.32	0.74	0.36	0.74	0.55
gcp90	0.6	0.41	1.19	0.57	0.74	0.75
ccp90	0.43	0.5	1.25	0.89	0.56	0.81
ap90	0	0.05	0.26	0.16	0	0.12
ccv	0	0.1	0.21	0.18	0	0.15
pass %	81.7	76.2	76.1	74.1	74.5	76
bp %	-	-	-	47.4	41.8	45.8
sacc %	30.6	30	35.3	28.7	44.8	45.6
shot %	14.3	8	19.3	9.3	21.8	19.8
TTI90	10.4	11.5	11.2	10.3	11.5	11

The most impressive thing is that his TTI90 stays consistent, but he appears to be unpredictable in most every other stat, which only adds to his risk.  The other thing is his price.  His valuation is set at £10.56, not a chance in hell should anyone pay that much.  Even at £8m, it's a gamble for a 15-20 goal scorer.  I can understand Rodgers' thinking here, right-footed poacher to pair with Sturridge, but there's definitely better prospects.  If Huntelaar's teammate, Jefferson Farfan, wasn't about to undergo knee surgery, he would be a much preferred choice.

Individual defensive stats, for the most part, are irrelevant

Recently when I was researching centre back prospects, I started to notice a trend.  It appeared that individualized defensive stats such as tackles, interceptions, clearances, and blocked shots had little relevance in regards to team defensive performance.  Though not completely irrelevant and in the very least a sign of hard work and involvement in a match, it just does not reflect on the scoresheet.

Ranking team defense ultimately comes down to goals allowed, four of the Prem clubs that finished the season in the top five last year, also finished in the top four in goals allowed.  Liverpool was the only top five club not to, they were 8th.  So the key is to figure out what stats are most important in goal prevention, but it's not that easy.  There should be a stats called 'turnover produced' and/or 'chance prevented', but what exactly would that entail and how would it be measured?

There are team stats that already exist that should carry more weight: shots conceded, possession, and passing are the most important in preventing chances for the opposition. These are better described as 'anti-attack' stats instead of defensive ones, but they still strive to accomplish the same objective. There are two interesting samples to discuss from last season's Prem, Man City, who won the league and was 2nd in least goals allowed, and Crystal Palace, who were far and away the best defensive-minded individuals thrown on the pitch falsely called 'a team'.

First, I set up a table taking the rank of each Prem club in each respective stat.  Those stats are goals allowed, non-error goals allowed, shots conceded, tackles, tackle %, clearances, interceptions, blocked shots, defensive errors, critical defensive errors, possession, and passing %.  I then broke that table down into two, one with only non-individual team stats and the other with just individual team stats.

Overall Table

Non-Individual Team Table

Individual Combined Table

Man City finished 7th on the overall table, 1st on non-individual team stats, and dead last (20th) on the individual combined table.  If that's not convincing enough for you, Crystal Palace tied with Chelsea for 1st on the overall table, was 16th on the non-individual table, and finished 1st by a mile on the individual combined table.  In fact, Palace had an avg rank of 2.86 on the ict, a full four points ahead of second place Hull and 11.71 average places higher than Man City.

Crystal Palace finished 11th in the table, scoring only 33 goals (2nd worst overall) and ranked dead last in both passing and possession.  Being that Tony Pulis is still their manager and they haven't brought in any significant attacking transfers, I don't see that changing much next season.  Meanwhile Man City lead the league in goals scored and was 2nd in both passing and possession.  Maybe the old adage 'the best defense is a good offense' rings true.

Why Rodgers should buy Bertrand

To get sacked and go on holiday.  I have little doubt that buying the Chelsea left back for his estimated valuation of £7m would be on par with buying Aspas for £7.5m or Borini for £10.4m.  Here are last season's stats for Bertrand, who spent the majority on loan at Villa, our Jon Flanagan, and the guy we should sign on a free from Heracles of the Eredivisie, Australian Jason Davidson.

	Bertrand	Flanagan	Davidson
age	25*	21	22
app(subs)	17	23	30
mins	1449	1890	2669
goals	0	1	2
assist	0	1	3
chances	4	13	32
npgp90	0	0.05	0.06
gcp90	0	0.1	0.17
ccp90	0.25	0.62	1.08
pass%	76.4	83.7	76.5
bp%	38.4	42.6	31.4
sacc%	50	42.9	38.5
shot%	0	14.3	15.4
tp90	1.9	3.8	1.7
tack %	60.5	45.7	51.2
intp90	0.9	1.9	2.2
clrp90	2.1	3.6	5.2
dribpp90	0.4	1.9	0.9
bsp90	0.4	0.2	0.5
TTI90	10.2	9.2	7.6

Bertrand pales in comparison to Flanagan and Davidson, in fact, other than his tackle success percentage, he's quite unimpressive.  More damning is that before joining Villa they had 23 points from their first 20 matches, but in the 16 of the remaining 18 matches that Bertrand played, they garnered only 12 points and won the fixture against Chelsea which could not feature him. 

Just don't do it Rodgers.  I read somewhere that the argument was how Rodgers has 'righted' Sturridge and could do the same for Bertrand.  That's a bunch of crock, when Sturridge is allowed to play in his natural position up front, as he did on loan at Bolton, he's highly productive, it has little to do with Rodgers 'righting' anything.  BR should be getting Davidson's rep on the phone as soon as possible before he finalizes his deal with Fulham.  That Felix Magath, he's never won anything.