Suarez?! We don't need no stinkin' Suarez!

Don't have much time to post now, but I did some research on match results for the past three-and-a-half seasons and broke them down according to whether Suarez played or not.  Here's the data:

	w/o	with	w/o	with	w/o	with	w/o	with
season	10-11	10-11	11-12	11-12	12-13	12-13	13-14	13-14
matches	1	13	7	31	5	33	5	33
goals for	1	25	10	37	12	59	5	96
goals allowed	0	13	10	30	3	40	3	47
win	1	7	3	11	4	12	3	23
draw	0	2	2	8	1	12	1	5
loss	0	4	2	12	0	9	1	5
points	3	23	11	41	13	48	10	74

	Totals		Avg/Pct
	w/o	with	w/o	with
matches	18	110	-	-
goals for	28	217	1.56	1.97
goals allowed	16	130	0.89	1.18
win	11	53	61.1	48.2
draw	4	27	22.2	24.5
loss	3	30	16.7	27.3
points	37	186	2.1	1.7

Basically we score more goals with Suarez, but allow less and win more without him.  I have a lot more on this that I'll post later.  Cheers.

Paul Scholes: clandestine Liverpool fan

The Ginger Prince appears obsessed with the Reds these days, sounding off on our players whenever he can.  I would say he's a wind-up muppet, but he's not, most of the time he actually talks sense.

He most recently chimed in on the Luis Suarez transfer saga, questioning whether 'El Conejo Loco' and Messi will be able to play together. “If Luis Suarez does sign for Barcelona from Liverpool, will Lionel Messi ‘accept’ him? Suarez is a centre forward and he won’t want to play out wide. I can’t see Suarez and Messi linking well together,” Scholes wrote on his Paddy Power blog.

He's not afraid to criticize his former club either.  On the Shaw transfer, he wrote, 'For a left-back to be worth £34m shows how silly the game has gone. For that money I want a centre-forward who’s going to score 30 goals a season.'  Preaching to the choir, my frienemy.

Before the World Cup, he praised 'the Liverpool way' of playing football and challenged the English to emulate it in Brazil.  On the subject he wrote, 'It would be refreshing for England to adopt Liverpool’s attacking mentality in Brazil. Really go for it. That means certainly four, and possibly five, Liverpool players in the England starting XI against Italy on June 14' and 'I’d love to see Roy be brave enough to play like Liverpool (or Man United teams of the past).'  Glad to see he realizes the glory years of his former club are in the past.

When it comes to Gerrard, he's had nothing but love, stating in the same post, 'Gerrard (a good leader who will have quickly moved on from that slip) has adjusted his game superbly, very much like I did' and 'That’s the big difference between Steven (Gerrard) and Lampard, for example. I’m not sure Lampard has the ability to control a game. He’s always someone who’s up trying to score goals.'  You know now he's expecting a nice Christmas present for the Gerrard household.

The best part is he gets a joke in here and there, for instance, 'Defensively Liverpool were poor – conceding 50 goals – but they can be contenders again next year IF they can get two world-class centre halves and a left-back. I’m talking about players of the standard of Jaap Stam and Rio Ferdinand.' Rio Ferdinand, world class!?!? Oh the wit.

It's too bad Scholesy wasted his career on the dark side.  He should have went to Italy or Spain, where he's actually more appreciated and wouldn't have played in the shadows of bigger personalities.  No matter what, I've never desired him to play for Liverpool and he has never been better than Gerrard.

DeAndre Yedlin? You must be Yanking my chain.

There are reports that Rodgers may be interested in 20-year-old American International and Seattle Sounders right back, DeAndre Yedlin.  The only interesting thing about Yedlin is that he is of 'Native American, African American, and Latvian descent' (thanks Wikipedia). Look, he plays for the Sounders in the MLS and he's far from setting the place ablaze.  If that were the case, I'd say bring him over.  Here are his stats from the previous and current MLS seasons:

	2013	2014
age	19	20
app(subs)	32(1)	11
mins	2712	959
goals	2	0
assist	2	0
chances	20	12
npgp90	0.07	0
gcp90	0.13	0
ccp90	0.66	1.1
ap90	0.07	0
ccv	10.6	0
pass%	74.6	80.3
bp%	32.9	28.8
sacc%	35.7	0
shot%	14.3	0
tp90	2.5	2.5
tack %	65.7	53.3
intp90	3.6	2.7
clrp90	3.2	3.3
dribpp90	0.83	0.9
bsp90	0.43	0.6
adwp90	1.7	0.7
adwon%	57.5	70
TTI90	12.1	10.7

At first glance, these stats look impressive, but they aren't.  If he posted these numbers in the Prem, Man U would buy him for £30m, but in the MLS, he doesn't even break the top 20 in any category.  Seattle has also allowed 23 goals so far this season, that's tied for 9th, so he isn't contributing to a stifling defense.  

The only positive that I can see is his progression, his passing has improved from last season, all the while lowering his back pass rate, and he is turning over the ball less.  Still no reason to get excited and put in a bid.

What about his World Cup showing?  What about it? He made 3 good passes, but was mediocre at best in his 115 minutes of pitch time.  Here's what Squawka thought about his performance in Brazil:

What about his potential? He'll turn 21 in four days and yes, his development is coming around nicely, but he's not 16 and has shown zero desire to leave the safe haven of MLS.  In fact, he was born and raised in Seattle.

Rodgers can not be serious about signing Yedlin. Andre Wisdom and Martin Kelly would both run circles around this kid. Going for players that are products of the World Cup hype machine rarely pan out, Yedlin would be lucky to just to train with our first team.

Agger was our best defender last season, Sakho was worst

Last season Brendan Rodgers utlilized 16 different line-ups on the back line.  I remember back in the day when Benitez used to change the line-up that often, he was ridiculed as a 'tinkerer'.  The truth is, he was ahead of his time and most successful managers started to do the same including Mourinho and Ferguson. Nowadays it's the status quo for clubs involved in multiple competitions, especially Europe (Sorry Man U).

 Rodgers, though, had a ton of injury issues to deal with last season.  Sakho, Enrique, Johnson, Toure, and Agger all had injury spells, some multiple.  Here are those line-ups along with their stats:

				M	GA	GAPM	CS
Johnson	Toure	Agger	Enrique	2	0	0.00	2
Johnson	Skrtel	Agger	Enrique	1	0	0.00	1
Johnson	Skrtel	Agger	Cissohko	2	0	0.00	2
Johnson	Skrtel	Sakho	Flanagan	3	2	0.67	1
Toure	Skrtel	Agger	Sakho	1	1	1.00	0
Flanagan	Skrtel	Toure	Cissohko	4	4	1.00	1
Johnson	Skrtel	Agger	Flanagan	5	5	1.00	2
Toure	Skrtel	Sakho		5	7	1.40	0
Flanagan	Skrtel	Agger	Johnson	2	3	1.50	1
Wisdom	Skrtel	Sakho	Enrique	1	2	2.00	0
Johnson	Skrtel	Agger	Flanagan	2	4	2.00	0
Johnson	Skrtel	Sakho	Cissohko	1	2	2.00	0
Johnson	Skrtel	Sakho	Agger	1	2	2.00	0
Johnson	Skrtel	Sakho	Flanagan	5	10	2.00	0
Johnson	Skrtel	Toure	Cissohko	2	5	2.50	0
Johnson	Skrtel	Toure	Flanagan	1	3	3.00	0

Those are sorted by goals allowed per match and if we break it down per player:

	ms	ga	gapm	cs	cs%
Agger	16	15	0.94	8	0.50
Cissohko	9	11	1.22	3	0.33
Johnson	27	36	1.33	9	0.33
Toure	15	20	1.33	3	0.20
Skrtel	36	50	1.39	8	0.22
Flanagan	22	31	1.41	5	0.23
Sakho	17	26	1.53	1	0.06

It's pretty clear our most valuable player on the back line is Agger.  It's not even close.  In fact, we only had 2 clean sheets without him.  What's disappointing is Sakho appears to be the biggest liability.  One clean sheet in 17 starts and the highest goal allowed per match average at 1.53.

I'm not sure what Rodgers plans on doing since it was pretty clear by the end of last season that Skrtel and Sakho were his first choice centre backs.  If they continue last year's form, that's not acceptable.  Agger is our best defensive back and I don't know what else proof the gaffer needs.  We will not win the league next year unless we shore up our defense, no matter what hard decisions need to be made.  I like Sakho, but if that means sitting him, so be it.

The age-old debate: Coutinho vs Ozil

Ever since Michael Owen trolled Arsenal fans by claiming Coutinho is superior to Ozil, an endless debate has spawned.  One thing before we look at their complete stats from last season.  They usually don't play the same position, but when Coutinho plays central midfield, Ozil's primary position, the Brazilian has the higher production.  I'll explain more after the stats.

	Coutinho	Ozil
age	22	25
app (sub)	28(5)	25(1)
mins	2323	2139
goals	5	5
assists	7	9
chances	64	76
npg90	0.19	0.21
gcp90	0.47	0.59
ccp90	2.5	3.2
ap90	0.27	0.38
ccv	10.8	11.9
pass %	80.6	88
bp %	36.7	41.5
sacc %	28.7	60
shot %	7	16.7
TTI90	11	12.4

As you can see, Ozil edges out in most every stat, but he should.  He's older, more experienced and usually plays the same position, central attacking midfielder.  Which takes us back to my aforementioned point.

Coutinho played 16 matches at central midfield and in those matches he scored 3 goals and served up 7 assists.  At that rate, had he played all his matches at that spot, he would have probably had more impressive stats than his Arsenal counterpart.

It's all speculation in the end, but to be honest, if Coutinho puts up the same numbers as Ozil in three years, I will be slightly disappointed.  He's nearly at that level now and he's potentially much better.  Rodgers wouldn't trade the Brazilian for the German and neither would I.

Memphis Depay: The Dutch Raheem Sterling

If you haven't been impressed with 20-year-old Dutch attacking midfielder, Memphis Depay, at the World Cup, than there's plenty more to drool over.  First off, one of my favorite sites, StatsBomb, wrote an excellent article about how he may be a great replacement for Suarez.  Here's his stats from last season at PSV compared to some of our players and one soon-to-be former player:

	Depay	Sterling	Coutinho	Lallana	Suarez
age	20	19	22	26	27
app (sub)	32	24(9)	28(5)	37(1)	33
mins	2694	2220	2323	3082	2962
goals	12	9	5	9	31
assists	8	5	7	6	12
chances	86	51	64	68	87
npg90	0.37	0.36	0.19	0.26	0.94
gcp90	0.67	0.57	0.47	0.44	1.3
ccp90	2.88	2.06	2.5	1.9	2.6
ap90	0.27	0.2	0.27	0.21	0.37
ccv	9.4	9.7	10.8	11.1	14.2
pass %	77.5	81.7	80.6	84.6	74.8
bp %	44.1	46.8	36.7	50.3	44.1
sacc %	48.4	48.9	28.7	41.4	44.8
shot %	9.1	20	7	18	17.1
TTI90	11.6	12.1	11	13.9	17

The thing that stands out most is his chances created per 90, he is the best of the bunch, even better than Suarez.  Speaking of 'El Conejo Loco', Depay comes second only to him in non-penalty goals per 90, goals created per 90, and assists per 90.  Only Coutinho keeps better care of the ball, but not by much.

For some reason he's only valued at £4.4m at http://www.transfermarkt.co.uk. I'm sure that was pre-World Cup, because it would be idiotic for PSV to let him go for less than £15m.  Though unlike Lallana, I wouldn't mind spending upwards of £27m for him.

Good riddance Suarez, we'll be better without you

If Suarez leaves, and it's looking highly likely, we'll be fine.  We still have Sturridge, Sterling, Coutinho, Gerrard, and Henderson, all but one are young and all will be improved.  We don't need to necessarily make up 31 goals, we could actually play better defense.  If we would have prevented just 5 more goals last year, we would have won the league.  Last season, we lead the league in defensive errors with 42, 13 which directly resulted in a goal, that obviously has to stop.

If there ever was an example to follow,  look no further than Ateltico Madrid from last season.  They only scored 77 goals, 27 less than Real, and 23 less than Barça.  They also only allowed 26 and committed just 17 defensive errors, which was not best in league, but only 5 off and light years better than 42.  They also lost Falcao and Martin Demichelis from the season before.

Falcao scored 28 goals for Atletico in the 2012-13 season, that was a ridiculous 43.1% of their total output of 65.  Suarez was 'only' responsible for 30.1% of our goals last season,  but his 13 assists means he took part in 42.6%.  Atletico rebounded with Diego Costa and added David Villa, we have Sturridge and added Rickie Lambert.

In fact, over the years, Atletico has lost a number of key players.  Since summer 2007, they've lost Falcao, Martin Demichelis, Eduardo Salvio, Serio Aguero, David De Gea, Diego Forlan, Jose Manuel Jurado, Simao Sabrosa, Maxi Rodriguez, Martin Petrov, and of course, Torres.  In that time they've won a Copa Del Rey, 2 Europa Cups, and 2 UEFA Super Cups.  Their progression in La Liga since 2009-10 has been consistent to say the least, they went from 9th to 7th to 5th to 3rd to winning it last season.  

They also reduced their goals allowed each season starting in 09-10 they conceded 61, then 53 in 10-11, 46 the next season, and 31 the year before last.  The thing is, their goal scoring showed no such progression save last season.  Over the same period from 2009-10 to 2012-13, they scored 57, 62, 53, and 65 in each successive season.

Brendan Rodgers appears to have solved our goal scoring issues, but now he needs to focus on defense.  I think we'll be better because our defenders, Sakho in particular, should be more familiar with on another.  Communication appeared to lack last season, I just hope that changes.  Also, the addition of Emre Can gives us another option at defensive midfielder, which is the most important defender on the pitch.

Suarez leaving is far from the end of the world.  Yes, he scored and created goals, but he also gave away the ball an awfully lot.  Counter attack goals killed us last year, particularly late in the season.  We can make up for Suarez by playing smarter defense and most of all, holding on to the ball longer and making smarter passes, though we will need to add at least one more attack-minded player.  Hopefully that's Shaqiri, Sanchez, or in the very least, Memphis Depay.