Monday, September 1, 2014

Liverpool has played hardest schedule, boasts best defence

Not being too pleased with defensive rating results after matches this past weekend, I decided to tweak my formula to consider strength of opponent.  Mainly I just wanted to make it so I could 'prove' Liverpool have been the best defensive side and that Man U are not as good as my ratings say.  Unfortunately, I could only manage the former.

Here are the most difficult schedules according to opponent's attack efficiency:
teamopp ape
Liverpool0.66872
Leicester0.65853
Burnley0.65069
C Palace0.62751
WBA0.61973

I didn't even factor in home field advantage, which would more than likely pad Liverpool's lead at the top of the table considering they have played at City and at Spurs. In the end though, it is a non-factor since all clubs will have played each other home and away, but I will probably start factoring it in after match day five.

The least difficult schedules?
clubopp ape
Arsenal0.52008
Hull City0.53570
Chelsea0.54696
Newcastle0.55131
Tottenham0.57160

Arsenal, far and away, have had the easiest walk in the park, but have only managed 5 points in 3 matches.  Is Hull relegation bound?  Their second half against Villa suggests not, but they still lost and their schedule just gets harder from here on out.

So here are the adjusted defensive rankings:
clubadj dpe
Liverpool0.93203
Burnley0.93190
Stoke0.90287
Man U0.87822
Leicester0.87333

Burnley and Leicester are here on strength of schedule and the fact that two of their first three matches have been at home.  Stoke is apparently the real deal as they showed at City Saturday and Man U is basically here because they dominated two crap sides, only managing draws though, and lost to a somewhat decent Swansea attack.

Worst defences:
clubadj dpe
Aston Villa0.798
Swansea0.805
Hull City0.806
Tottenham0.810
Newcastle0.816

Villa come to Anfield next and if LFC take them seriously, it should be a route.

Popular Posts