Tuesday, June 17, 2014

The Centre Back Dillema

One thing that Brendan Rodgers has to address this offseason is the issues at centre back.  Kolo Toure is old and should really only be used as a squad player.  Skrtel and Agger will both turn 30 in December and are starting to show their age.  Sakho has the ability to be all-world, but he appears to lack the discipline.  Sebastian Coates days as a Liverpool player are probably over, which is probably for the best.  That means, unless Tiago Ilori or Conor Coady are ready to step it up, or Rodgers wants to use either Martin Kelly or Andre Wisdom as centre backs (which both are fully capable, just not where they primarily play), we're going to have to bring someone in.  The players who seem to be high on Rodger's list are Dejan Lovren, Steven Caulker, and Mateo Musacchio.  Let's see how they stack up against our current group of centre backs.

SkrtelSakhoAggerToureLovrenCaulkerMusacchio
app (sub)3618(1)16(4)15(5)313832
goals7120251
assists1012102
chances7227498
shot %46.712.533.309.914.714.3
pass %90.892.589.186.48274.479.5
bp %23.722.618.720.521.520.316.4
tackles1.41.51.41.721.22.4
tackle %5071.455.665.157.855.450.9
fouls0.80.60.50.60.80.21.2
clearances11.47.65.77.47.78.66
blocked spm1.10.40.40.70.31.60.5
interceptions1.71.51.10.82.71.23.4
drib past0.40.30.30.60.50.30.8
off won0.40.30.30.11.40.90.6
adwpg3.62.62.32.23.33.82.2
adwg %70.15665.250.661.259.348.3
de (g)4(2)2(0)3(0)3(2)1(1)0(0)4(2)
own g4001001
TTI5.25.655.810.910.19.5

First, the surprises: Sakho's 92.5% passing rate is phenomenal while Skrtel's 90.8% is skewed by his back pass rate of 23.7%.  Sakho is also the most consistent tackler with a 71.4% success rate, while Skrtel is worst at a mere 50%.  Steven Caulker took (or tied for) the most categories with 7, but his piss poor pass %, tackle rate, and TTI really hurt him.  Speaking of TTI, I was very surprised to see Lovren be the worst here, errant passes are his biggest fault.  Musacchio's tackle rate is outstanding at 2.4 and a bit unforeseen considering he plays in the less physical La Liga, unfortunately he appears to take too many risks with a 50.9% successful tackle rate.

The Captain Obvious award goes to Kolo Toure, who is old and plays like it. He took home the raspberry for shot %, interceptions, offsides won, and aerial duels won per match, and came close to bottom in three other categories.

We can really tell each player's strengths and weaknesses with these stats, Skrtel is a poor tackler who likes to back pass, but makes up for it by dominating the air and clearing the ball.  Sakho is a great passer and tackler, but not that great in the air, which is probably why those two are paired together.  Agger takes care of the ball, but is not a fan of clearances.  We know what Toure doesn't do, but he did tie for most assists and the third most chances created.

So what about our three potential signings? Well, as I stated before, Lovren's TTI can be a deal breaker, he makes a lot of bad passes and his pass rate of 82% is not impressive.  The other stat that stands out is 2.7 interceptions, which is solid.  He also turns 25 in July.

Caulker seems a bit bipolar.  He can create chances, but he's not a very good passer.  Maybe he's trying too hard or maybe he needs better teammates to feed the ball too. He's only 22 though and his passing can be improved.  Defensively, he doesn't seem to like to tackle, but he's not afraid to block shots nor commit to the air and he's hard to dribble past.  I'm not sure Cardiff can afford to keep him now that they were relegated, but they will probably want to recoup the £8m they paid for him.

Finally, we have Mateo Musacchio, who will turn 24 this August.  His back pass rate (16.4%), tackles per match (2.4), and interceptions per match (3.4) are exemplary, but he is foul prone, only succeeds at 50.9% of his tackles, easily dribbled past, and not very aerial-minded.  He also tied Skrtel with 4 defensive errors that also lead to 2 opposition goals.

Of those three, I honestly think Caulker would be the best.  Lovren is too turnover prone and I don't see Musacchio's game adjusting well to the Prem.  Of course, the dream signing would be Mehdi Benatia from Roma, but he would cost at least £20m.

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