Mile Jedinak: A defensive solution on the cheap

With the Lovren deal apparently on the rocks, Caulker off the table, and little other prospects in the wind, how about an inexpensive, Premiership-proven alternative, albeit temporary? What about Mile Jedinak?  Yes, I'm aware he is a defensive midfielder, but versatility only adds to his intrigue.

The soon-to-be-30-year-old Australian international had quite an impressive season last year for Crystal Palace.  One could write a book about the Eagles' wild ride of a 2013-14 campaign, from dead last on 7 points in week 13 to finishing 11th on 45, and we don't have to mention the 9 minutes of chaos at Selhurst Park that all but ended Liverpool's title hopes.  How Palace easily survived by scoring a mere 33 goals is a minor miracle to say the least and a massive tribute to a defence lead by Jedinak.

Crystal Palace didn't play 'smart' defence, they played a brutal-style that relied on individual effort.  Unfortunately that will never win you a league title since it is too draining on the players, a possession and passing-based defence will always win there, but it's admirable to say the least.  Per league ranking last season, the London club was first in the Prem in clearances, interceptions, and least costly defensive errors, second in tackles and least overall defensive errors, fifth in successful tackle percentage, and 8th in blocked shots. Their average ranking in those categories was 2.86, the next closest was Hull at 6.86.

Jedinak was a beast, posting impressive numbers in defensive areas as well as in aerial duels (league averages in blue below):

adw90	adw%	t90	tk%	int90	clr90	bs90
4.49	70.8	3.57	53.4	3.73	3.76	0.46
1.61	50	1.75	46.9	1.25	3.04	0.30

His biggest weakness is his passing, but in his defence, he did play for the worst passing side in the EPL last season.  His 71.9% passing rate was still slightly better than his team's 71.1% and he did complete 121 of 206 long balls for a 58.7% rate.  As is the norm, his passing would improve with more skilled teammates. He also doesn't have blinding pace, which is why his future is better suited at centre back.

A lot comes in to play when considering Jedinak: age, fee, and would he want to come?  He would be losing playing time, but he would get a chance at Champions League football.  Also he would have the opportunity to play for one of the bigger clubs on Merseyside (that's called sarcasm).  If Pulis would regretfully let him go for £5m, Rodgers would be crazy not to jump at it.  Jedinak is an excellent defender, which will translate well at either defensive midfielder or centre back for at least 3-4 seasons.

Steven Caulker doesn't fancy a tackle

It's not that the 22-year-old is poor at tackling, in fact his 63.8 career percentage is admirable, it's just not his style.  The one-time England international has clearly learned the game from former clubmates Ashley Williams and Ledley King.  Neither of those two were much of tacklers either, but both are/were considered capable defenders.  Caulker still has a way to go before he reaches the level of those two, but at least he's on the right path.

npg90	gc90	cc90	ap90	ccv	TTI90
0.09	0.11	0.27	0.03	9.1	8.1
pass%	bp%	sacc%	shot%	intp90	clrp90
83	22.8	31.3	10.5	1.39	8.47
drbp90	bs90	tp90	tack%	adw90	adw%
0.22	1.15	1.22	63.8	2.8	56.2
gsp90	gap90	gop90	tgop	gopd
1.12	1.56	-0.44	-0.25	-0.19

Stats definitions can be found here.

Those are his career stats from the last three Premier League seasons.  He spent 2011-12 on loan to Swansea, where he paired with Williams, 2012-13 at Spurs, and in the summer of 2013, Tottenham sold him to Cardiff.  Three years, three different clubs, and next season he'll be at either QPR or Liverpool, but is he worth buying?

The thing about Caulker is that he was a much better player in his season with the Spurs than at either Welsh club.  He set career highs in goals and assists per 90 minutes played, successful passing, tackling, and shot accuracy percentage, true turnover index per 90 minutes played, interceptions and clearances per 90 minutes played in that campaign.  A couple were particularly impressive, his 89.7% successful pass percentage with only a 27.8% back pass percentage is outstanding and his 4.3 true turnover rate is one of the best I've ever seen.  I can only imagine how impressive his numbers would be if he came to Liverpool.

Probably his most commendable career stat is his 0.22 dribbled past per 90 minutes. If his 0.26 drbp90 from last season at relegated Cardiff, which would have been second to only Skrtel among Liverpool centre backs, doesn't impress, his 0.06 drbp90 in his season at Tottenham is mind-blowing.  Again, that is a number  so low, I'm pretty confident I have never seen anything like it.  For perspective, Lovren posted a 0.48 drbp90 last season at Southampton, that would have been worst among Liverpool centre backs last season, even behind the 0.44 put up by 'Ole Man' Toure.

If we can get Caulker for the £8m that QPR apparently bid (and was accepted), by all means we should sign him.  Even £10m is an acceptable amount.  He is right-footed and will give Skrtel a run for his money, not to mention the Slovak and Agger are both 29-years-old and not getting any younger.  If Sakho shows improvement and adapts better to the English game next season, he and Caulker would be a force hard to reckon with for years to come.

Forget Lovren, we've got Kevin Stewart now

It is baffling that the signing of Kevin Stewart is deemed 'news'.  What is more pathetic though is when a blog sensationalizes and exaggerates to trick people into visiting their site by calling Stewart a 'Prem' defender.  He is 20-years-old and has played a grand total of zero Prem minutes.  Unless Rodgers thinks he'll be some sort of late bloomer, what's the point?  Is Ilori and/or Coates, as long as the latter is here, going to get a chance?  We need a player who is going to challenge for a starting spot and Stewart isn't that.

Dejan Lovren, on the other hand, could. The 25-year-old Southampton and Serbian international anchored a very solid Saints defense last season.  In fact, in my overall defense ranking table, the South Coast side finished third, only a point from being tied top with Chelsea and Crystal Palace.  As I have said, I don't think individual defensive stats hold much water, but I do think in the very least, you can find fault and strength. Here are Lovren's stats from last season along with those of Sakho, Skrtel, Agger, and Old Man Toure.

	Lovren	Sakho	Skrtel	Agger	Toure
age	25	24	29	29	34
app(subs)	31	18(1)	36	16(4)	15(5)
mins	2787	1478	3221	1421	1443
goals	2	1	7	2	0
assist	1	0	1	1	2
chances	4	2	7	2	7
npgp90	0.07	0.06	0.2	0.13	0
gcp90	0.1	0.06	0.22	0.19	0.13
ccp90	0.13	0.12	0.2	0.13	0.44
ap90	0.03	0	0.03	0.06	0.13
ccv	0.23	0	0.15	0.46	0.3
pass%	82	92.5	90.8	89.1	86.4
bp%	21.5	22.6	23.7	18.7	20.5
sacc%	15.2	10	53.3	42.8	14.3
shot%	9	10	46.7	28.6	0
tp90	2	1.6	1.4	1.7	2.1
tack %	57.8	71.4	50	55.6	65.1
intp90	2.7	1.6	1.7	1.3	0.9
clrp90	7.7	8.3	11.5	7.2	9.2
dribpp90	0.5	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.4
bsp90	0.3	0.4	1.1	0.5	0.8
adwp90	3.3	2.9	3.6	2.8	2.7
adwon%	61.2	56	70.1	65.2	50.6
TTI90	10.4	5.6	5.2	5	5.8

So what does Lovren do well? Interceptions and aerial duels certainly stand out.  Though it's kind of disconcerting that he's easily taken off the dribble more than the other four, especially Toure.  It questions his pace and quickness.  He also turns over the ball significantly more and he had less touches than Skrtel, so the 'Suarez' factor does not come into play.

Is he worth the reported £20m that it may cost to bring him in? Absolutely not.  If he alone was the reason the Saints defense was so good, yes, but they have/had Schneiderlin, Wanyama, Fonte, Clyne, and Shaw.  None of those five, save Shaw, is worth that much, and that's only because Shaw is 19.  I'd rather us just try and sigh Steven Caulker. 

The Centre Back Dillema

One thing that Brendan Rodgers has to address this offseason is the issues at centre back.  Kolo Toure is old and should really only be used as a squad player.  Skrtel and Agger will both turn 30 in December and are starting to show their age.  Sakho has the ability to be all-world, but he appears to lack the discipline.  Sebastian Coates days as a Liverpool player are probably over, which is probably for the best.  That means, unless Tiago Ilori or Conor Coady are ready to step it up, or Rodgers wants to use either Martin Kelly or Andre Wisdom as centre backs (which both are fully capable, just not where they primarily play), we're going to have to bring someone in.  The players who seem to be high on Rodger's list are Dejan Lovren, Steven Caulker, and Mateo Musacchio.  Let's see how they stack up against our current group of centre backs.

	Skrtel	Sakho	Agger	Toure	Lovren	Caulker	Musacchio
app (sub)	36	18(1)	16(4)	15(5)	31	38	32
goals	7	1	2	0	2	5	1
assists	1	0	1	2	1	0	2
chances	7	2	2	7	4	9	8
shot %	46.7	12.5	33.3	0	9.9	14.7	14.3
pass %	90.8	92.5	89.1	86.4	82	74.4	79.5
bp %	23.7	22.6	18.7	20.5	21.5	20.3	16.4
tackles	1.4	1.5	1.4	1.7	2	1.2	2.4
tackle %	50	71.4	55.6	65.1	57.8	55.4	50.9
fouls	0.8	0.6	0.5	0.6	0.8	0.2	1.2
clearances	11.4	7.6	5.7	7.4	7.7	8.6	6
blocked spm	1.1	0.4	0.4	0.7	0.3	1.6	0.5
interceptions	1.7	1.5	1.1	0.8	2.7	1.2	3.4
drib past	0.4	0.3	0.3	0.6	0.5	0.3	0.8
off won	0.4	0.3	0.3	0.1	1.4	0.9	0.6
adwpg	3.6	2.6	2.3	2.2	3.3	3.8	2.2
adwg %	70.1	56	65.2	50.6	61.2	59.3	48.3
de (g)	4(2)	2(0)	3(0)	3(2)	1(1)	0(0)	4(2)
own g	4	0	0	1	0	0	1
TTI	5.2	5.6	5	5.8	10.9	10.1	9.5

First, the surprises: Sakho's 92.5% passing rate is phenomenal while Skrtel's 90.8% is skewed by his back pass rate of 23.7%.  Sakho is also the most consistent tackler with a 71.4% success rate, while Skrtel is worst at a mere 50%.  Steven Caulker took (or tied for) the most categories with 7, but his piss poor pass %, tackle rate, and TTI really hurt him.  Speaking of TTI, I was very surprised to see Lovren be the worst here, errant passes are his biggest fault.  Musacchio's tackle rate is outstanding at 2.4 and a bit unforeseen considering he plays in the less physical La Liga, unfortunately he appears to take too many risks with a 50.9% successful tackle rate.

The Captain Obvious award goes to Kolo Toure, who is old and plays like it. He took home the raspberry for shot %, interceptions, offsides won, and aerial duels won per match, and came close to bottom in three other categories.

We can really tell each player's strengths and weaknesses with these stats, Skrtel is a poor tackler who likes to back pass, but makes up for it by dominating the air and clearing the ball.  Sakho is a great passer and tackler, but not that great in the air, which is probably why those two are paired together.  Agger takes care of the ball, but is not a fan of clearances.  We know what Toure doesn't do, but he did tie for most assists and the third most chances created.

So what about our three potential signings? Well, as I stated before, Lovren's TTI can be a deal breaker, he makes a lot of bad passes and his pass rate of 82% is not impressive.  The other stat that stands out is 2.7 interceptions, which is solid.  He also turns 25 in July.

Caulker seems a bit bipolar.  He can create chances, but he's not a very good passer.  Maybe he's trying too hard or maybe he needs better teammates to feed the ball too. He's only 22 though and his passing can be improved.  Defensively, he doesn't seem to like to tackle, but he's not afraid to block shots nor commit to the air and he's hard to dribble past.  I'm not sure Cardiff can afford to keep him now that they were relegated, but they will probably want to recoup the £8m they paid for him.

Finally, we have Mateo Musacchio, who will turn 24 this August.  His back pass rate (16.4%), tackles per match (2.4), and interceptions per match (3.4) are exemplary, but he is foul prone, only succeeds at 50.9% of his tackles, easily dribbled past, and not very aerial-minded.  He also tied Skrtel with 4 defensive errors that also lead to 2 opposition goals.

Of those three, I honestly think Caulker would be the best.  Lovren is too turnover prone and I don't see Musacchio's game adjusting well to the Prem.  Of course, the dream signing would be Mehdi Benatia from Roma, but he would cost at least £20m.