Obscured by Dowd: A history of the ref & LFC

Phil Dowd is the ref for this Sunday's match at White Hart Lane, here is a breakdown of his record with Liverpool.  He has refereed 57 matches featuring Liverpool Football Club in all competitions.  In those matches, LFC is 21-12-14 and have accumulated 61 cards, 57 yellows, 2 yellow-reds and 1 straight red.  Our opponents have received 88 yellows, 1 yellow-red, and 2 straight reds.

Dowd has awarded 5 penalties to Liverpool all-time, 4 at Anfield and 1 on the road (funny enough coming in a loss at White Hart Lane).  Three of those came against Crystal Palace in 2004 with Milan Baros converting two.  The Czech striker had the third waved off, but he still managed a hat-trick in the 3-2 win at Anfield.

Away from Anfield, LFC is 6-4-10 under the disciplinary guidance of Mr. Dowd in all competitions, receiving 37 yellows, 1 yellow-red, and 1 straight red.  Their opponents have accumulated 40 cards, all yellow.

In Premier League play, Liverpool is 17-12-10 with Dowd, but only 4-6-9 away from Anfield.  They have received 33 cards in visiting matches (31 y, 1 y-r, 1 r) while their home opponents have been booked 29 times, all yellow.

Twice Dowd has mediated matches between Spurs and LFC at White Hart Lane, both times Tottenham won.  The first time in January 2008, a heart-breaking affair that would wind up costing Liverpool a chance at the title that season.  Up 1-0 through two-thirds of the match, Jamie Carragher headed in an own goal against the run of play and in the 91st minute, a shambolic defensive display allowed Pavlyuchenko to score the winner.

The second match occurred November 2012, also resulting in a 2-1 Spurs win.  The north London club went up 2-0 in the opening 16 minutes with goals from Aaron Lennon and Gareth Bale, never looking back.  The only 'goal' Liverpool could manage was a Bale own goal in the 72nd minute.

Dowd has over seen some other significant matches including Brendan Rodgers' EPL debut as LFC manager.  In a controversial affair at the Hawthorns, Dowd awarded West Brom two ridiculous penalties and handed five cards to Liverpool players including a laughable straight red to Daniel Agger.  Another match he refereed was our 1-2 FA Cup final loss to Chelsea in May 2012.

The Transfer Rubbish Bin: Moreno likely? Di Maria Possible? Agger gone?

Sevilla club president Juan Castro has proclaimed that Liverpool have not yet met his club's evaluation for Alberto Moreno.  They want closer to £20m for the 22-year-old left back and LFC apparently have offer £14-16m plus bonuses.  The Mirror is reporting that the deal will be done after Sevilla play Real Madrid in the UEFA Super Cup match tomorrow.  Not sure why that matters because unless they sign another left back by the then, they won't have a true one to replace Moreno if he's sold.  Navarro and possibly Vitolo can 'cover' there, but neither are 'true' left backs.

Recovered from World Cup injury, Angel Di Maria has reported to Real Madrid despite grumblings that he desires to leave.  If he plays tomorrow in the UEFA Super Cup, it'll raise a few eyebrows.  Paris St. Germain would be the likeliest destination, but unless they rid themselves of a couple of 'A' list players, Lavezzi and Cavani in particular, they can't buy the 26-year-old winger due to their settlement agreement with the CFCB of UEFA.  That's a scintillating read, by the way.  Apparently Man United are the current favorites and are preparing a £55m bid for the Argentine. That is way too much, even for a player of Di Maria's class.  Is he part English? His market value according to transfermarkt.co.uk is £44m. Other than dinero, I can't see him walking into a starting spot for us like he would at United.  Would you sit Sterling or Coutinho for him? Not I, though we could play him in the hole which would take time away from Henderson and make Lallana's transfer even more irrelevant.  Considering he wants out of Real Madrid because the additions of James Rodriguez and Toni Kroos will severely cut into his pitch time, United would be better for him.  One can dream though.

Daniel Agger is apparently broken and bent.  So much so that he has gone 'tearfully begging' to Rodgers for a transfer.  It's a nice story and may hold some truth, but doubtful.  Sure, the 29-year-old centre back has been utilized considerably less the last couple of seasons, but he is still quality and we will need him as insurance, in case of injury to others. Their are also a ton of fixtures to be played next 'year' and the more coverage, the better off we'll be.  I hope we do whatever is necessary to hold on to our Vice Captain.  Good news is Rodgers has claimed that there have not been any approaches for the Dagger.

There is also word in the cyberspace that a 'huge' signing is coming.  Hopefully it isn't Cavani or Lavezzi or god help me, Mauro Icardi.  None of those players will be very helpful to us and considering Rodger's distaste for Andy Carroll, Cavani's style of play is quite similar though somewhat superior.  The Uruguyuan will problem come at an exorbitant price as well.  I also don't think Moreno can be considered a 'big deal' either, he is quality and may one day be considered 'world class', but he is years from that now.  Then who could be? Cuadrado? Reus? Fred? I just puked.

The 'dream' signings to forget Loic Remy

Now that the Remy deal is off, Rodgers should be back in the market for another striker unless Divock Origi doesn't go back to Lille on loan, but I'm sure that was a non-negotiable part of the deal.  There are plenty of options out there, though the more experienced may be harder to convince to leave their current clubs and the younger ones are risks due to lack of experience.  Then you have the older, temporary solution, who hardly ever make mistakes, but don't always adapt well and produce.

Two of these 'dream' signings would be either Pedro or José María Callejón. The chances of Rodriguez leaving Barcelona are little to none, he would have to be 'sold' into coming to Liverpool, it would take more than just money to convince him and who says Barca would let him leave? It really depends on whether he is willing to play fourth fiddle to Messi, Neymar, and Suarez, when the Uruguayan becomes eligible, or be a starter and get all the minutes he wants at Liverpool.  His numbers the past five seasons in La Liga and in Europe are not mind-blowing, but far from shabby:

npg90	ap90	gc90	cc90	ccv	pass%	sacc%	shot%	TTI90
0.44	0.22	0.67	1.33	16.2	88.4	48.6	20.6	10.98

Callejón may be easier to convince to leave Napoli.  Rafa may even take a player or two in exchange for the Spaniard, who had a breakout season last year, his first in Italy.  His stats from the last five seasons of La Liga, Serie A, and European competitions are comparable to Pedro, though less impressive:

npg90	ap90	gc90	cc90	ccv	pass%	sacc%	shot%	TTI90
0.31	0.17	0.48	1.39	12.1	81.6	42.5	12.9	11.18

I highly doubt we could pry either one of these players from their respective clubs, but it wouldn't hurt to inquire.  Barcelona are interested in Agger and though I'd rather we hang on to the Dane, if it means getting Pedro, it'd be hard to pass up.

Two others come to mind and I've written about both before.  Seydou Doumbia has been tearing up the Russian Premier League and the Swiss Super League for years now.  You can read more about his amazing production here. 

I've briefly mentioned the torrid scoring rate of 21-year-old Jesé Rodríguez.  The Real Madrid forward is off to a blistering start in his career and the sky seems the limit.  His influence on his club is beyond just numbers though, in the 18 matches he featured last season, Real earned 47 pts, in the 20 he did not, they only managed 40.  He is coming off injury though, which is a worry.  Before so, he posted these ridiculous numbers:

gc90	cc90	ccv	pass%	bp%	sacc%	shot%	TTI90	gopd
1.3	1.94	30.7	83.2	52.40	52.40	23.80	10.90	1.24

Oh yeah, then there's Marco Reus.

Next I'll write about some lesser known, less expensive, but certainly less sexier picks like Nolito, Kevin Gameiro, and Max Kruse.

Steven Caulker doesn't fancy a tackle

It's not that the 22-year-old is poor at tackling, in fact his 63.8 career percentage is admirable, it's just not his style.  The one-time England international has clearly learned the game from former clubmates Ashley Williams and Ledley King.  Neither of those two were much of tacklers either, but both are/were considered capable defenders.  Caulker still has a way to go before he reaches the level of those two, but at least he's on the right path.

npg90	gc90	cc90	ap90	ccv	TTI90
0.09	0.11	0.27	0.03	9.1	8.1
pass%	bp%	sacc%	shot%	intp90	clrp90
83	22.8	31.3	10.5	1.39	8.47
drbp90	bs90	tp90	tack%	adw90	adw%
0.22	1.15	1.22	63.8	2.8	56.2
gsp90	gap90	gop90	tgop	gopd
1.12	1.56	-0.44	-0.25	-0.19

Stats definitions can be found here.

Those are his career stats from the last three Premier League seasons.  He spent 2011-12 on loan to Swansea, where he paired with Williams, 2012-13 at Spurs, and in the summer of 2013, Tottenham sold him to Cardiff.  Three years, three different clubs, and next season he'll be at either QPR or Liverpool, but is he worth buying?

The thing about Caulker is that he was a much better player in his season with the Spurs than at either Welsh club.  He set career highs in goals and assists per 90 minutes played, successful passing, tackling, and shot accuracy percentage, true turnover index per 90 minutes played, interceptions and clearances per 90 minutes played in that campaign.  A couple were particularly impressive, his 89.7% successful pass percentage with only a 27.8% back pass percentage is outstanding and his 4.3 true turnover rate is one of the best I've ever seen.  I can only imagine how impressive his numbers would be if he came to Liverpool.

Probably his most commendable career stat is his 0.22 dribbled past per 90 minutes. If his 0.26 drbp90 from last season at relegated Cardiff, which would have been second to only Skrtel among Liverpool centre backs, doesn't impress, his 0.06 drbp90 in his season at Tottenham is mind-blowing.  Again, that is a number  so low, I'm pretty confident I have never seen anything like it.  For perspective, Lovren posted a 0.48 drbp90 last season at Southampton, that would have been worst among Liverpool centre backs last season, even behind the 0.44 put up by 'Ole Man' Toure.

If we can get Caulker for the £8m that QPR apparently bid (and was accepted), by all means we should sign him.  Even £10m is an acceptable amount.  He is right-footed and will give Skrtel a run for his money, not to mention the Slovak and Agger are both 29-years-old and not getting any younger.  If Sakho shows improvement and adapts better to the English game next season, he and Caulker would be a force hard to reckon with for years to come.

The transfer terrorists and their sneaky, little dirty bombs

If you are like me, you are already tired of all the speculations and half-fabrications pertaining to potential transfers involving our beloved club.  The silly season is upon us and since my two pence is worth at least one-fiftieth quid, I figure I'll have a go at deciphering through this radioactive mess.  I don't claim to have an advantage of who we may bring in, but I can at least give my thoughts on who is 'surplus to the cause'.

Lucas Leiva
I'm really on the fence about Lucas.  As much as I think we should keep him, part of me thinks the Lucas of three seasons ago is gone and he shan't return.  His injuries have become too frequent and though his passing and ball-handling skills have improved, he appears slower than ever and that's saying a lot considering pace was never one of his strengths.  At least now, with the addition of Can, we won't have to rely on him as much.

Daniel Agger
Absolutely not, losing Agger would be a greater loss than losing Suarez.  He was our best centre back last year and unless Sakho proves his worth early on next season, Agger should be around for a few more years.

Iago Aspas
Here's an interesting stat concerning Aspas... oh wait, there are no interesting stats concerning him.  Give'em a ticket and say bon voyage.

Fabio Borini
Even without the addition of Rickie Lambert, Borini should be shipped out.  In 2692 Premiership minutes, playing for Sunderland, Liverpool, and Chelsea, he has scored 8 goals, 3 of which are penalties, and assisted on 3 more.  For a comparison, he scored 9 goals in 1680 minutes for Roma in Serie A.  He doesn't have the pace nor the technical ability to make up for the lack of pace to make it in the Prem.  I say sell him to Sunderland or use him as bait to get a versatile defender like Federico Fazio.

Ousama Assaidi
Assaidi had a decent spell at Stoke last season, but not enough to really consider keeping him.  His ccp90 of 1.53, shooting accuracy of 45%, shot % of 20%, and a TTI90 of 8.6 are all respectable numbers, but he'll be 26 in August.  If he was 23, I'd say keep him around for another season, but it's time to cut ties and try to get back at least some of what we paid for him.

Jack Robinson
Robinson's loan spell at Blackpool probably did more for his character development than it did for his skills. Blackpool started the season in decent form, sitting on 31 points 17 matches into the season, than the ship ran aground.  They lost 20 of their remaining 29 matches, even bringing in Barry Ferguson as the manager did little to help their slide.  Was Robinson integral to their fall? Not really.  Despite picking up 3 red cards, 2 of which were in their first 17 matches, Robinson's output was respectable:

npgp90	0	pass%	71.7	gap90	1.44	intp90	2.27
gcp90	0.1	bp%	37.3	gsp90	0.83	clrp90	5.3
ccp90	0.77	sacc%	8.3	gop90	-0.61	bsp90	0.35
ap90	0.1	shot%	0	tgop90	-0.61	adwp90	1.4
ccv	12.5	TTI90	11.7	tp90	1.95	adwon%	57.1
				tack %	51.3

Ferguson even deployed Robinson at left mid for 4 matches with mixed results.  Being only 20, I expect him to be loaned out again and hopefully show more promise than last season.

As for Suso, Wisdom, Kelly, Coady, Yesil, and Ibe, unless they vehemently demand to leave, we should hold on to them.  The first three can contribute now, while the latter three probably need seasoning at a Championship side to improve their game.

Coutinho, Sterling, & Agger all had higher gopds than Suarez last year

The winner of 'goals on pitch difference' for Liverpool last season was Coutinho with Sterling and Agger coming up 2nd and 3rd respectively.  Similar to +/- that is used in basketball, gopd measures the amount of goals a team scored against amount allowed while that player is on the pitch.  Here are the results for relevant LFC players from last season:

	mins	pp90	ga	gap90	gs	gsp90	diff
Coutinho	2323	25.8	37	1.43	78	3.02	1.59
Sterling	2220	24.7	31	1.26	69	2.80	1.54
Agger	1421	15.8	18	1.14	42	2.66	1.52
Suarez	2962	32.9	47	1.43	96	2.92	1.49
Sturridge	2267	25.2	31	1.23	68	2.70	1.47
Johnson	2515	27.9	38	1.36	79	2.83	1.47
Henderson	3129	34.8	42	1.21	93	2.67	1.47
Allen	1443	16.0	21	1.31	44	2.75	1.44
Skrtel	3221	35.8	50	1.40	99	2.77	1.37
Gerrard	2895	32.2	44	1.37	86	2.67	1.30
Flanagan	1890	21.0	38	1.81	63	3.00	1.19
Lucas	1896	21.1	27	1.28	49	2.32	1.04
Toure	1443	16.0	20	1.25	36	2.25	1.00
Sakho	1478	16.4	25	1.52	38	2.32	0.79

The gopd average for Liverpool was 1.33 per match, which does not bode well for Gerrard and anyone else below him on the table.  Flanagan is particularly dreadful being his 3 goal scored per 90 is second highest, but his 1.81 goals allowed is worst.  I'm at a loss for words when it comes to Sakho, maybe he just isn't that good, and if you would have asked me last week if selling Lucas was a good idea, I would have said absolutely not, but now I'm beginning to wonder if he's no longer of much value.

I'm not surprised by any of the players in the top five except for maybe Agger, who we should truly not sell, but Johnson at sixth is perplexing.  I figured he'd be much worse.  Maybe we should hold on to him for a little bit longer.

By the way, of all players who played at least 1000 league minutes last season, Aly Cissokho had the highest goal scored per 90 at 3.05 and highest gopd at 1.73. Go figure.

Gerrard & Sturridge are more important than Suarez

Again and again I'm trying to convince myself that the loss of Suarez won't be that great, well, this may be the straw that breaks the camel's back.  I went through each match last year and broke down goal importance according to whether a point was salvaged or gained (crucial goal) or gave us an advantage (important goal).  I did the same for assists as well.  Then I applied a points system: 3 points for crucial goal or assist and 1 point for important goal or assist.  Here are the results:

	crucial goal	imp goal	crucial asst	imp assist	value
Gerrard	5	4	4	4	35
Sturridge	7	6	1	2	32
Suarez	0	11	1	4	18
Coutinho	2	1	0	2	9
Agger	1	1	1	1	8
Henderson	1	0	0	3	6
Enrique	0	0	1	1	4
Sterling	0	2	0	2	4
Aspas	0	0	1	0	3
Skrtel	0	3	0	0	3
Toure	0	0	0	1	1
Sakho	0	1	0	0	1
Johnson	0	0	0	1	1
Allen	0	1	0	0	1

Not a single goal and only one assist from Suarez was 'crucial' to our title chase last year.  He did score 11 'important' goals though, unfortunately that also means he essentially scored 20 'meaningless' goals or goals that wouldn't have mattered had he scored them or not.

We will be fine if Suarez leaves as long as we improve defensively.  Yes, he's fun to watch and I wish he would play the rest of his days in a Liverpool shirt, but in the end, we go on.

Agger was our best defender last season, Sakho was worst

Last season Brendan Rodgers utlilized 16 different line-ups on the back line.  I remember back in the day when Benitez used to change the line-up that often, he was ridiculed as a 'tinkerer'.  The truth is, he was ahead of his time and most successful managers started to do the same including Mourinho and Ferguson. Nowadays it's the status quo for clubs involved in multiple competitions, especially Europe (Sorry Man U).

 Rodgers, though, had a ton of injury issues to deal with last season.  Sakho, Enrique, Johnson, Toure, and Agger all had injury spells, some multiple.  Here are those line-ups along with their stats:

				M	GA	GAPM	CS
Johnson	Toure	Agger	Enrique	2	0	0.00	2
Johnson	Skrtel	Agger	Enrique	1	0	0.00	1
Johnson	Skrtel	Agger	Cissohko	2	0	0.00	2
Johnson	Skrtel	Sakho	Flanagan	3	2	0.67	1
Toure	Skrtel	Agger	Sakho	1	1	1.00	0
Flanagan	Skrtel	Toure	Cissohko	4	4	1.00	1
Johnson	Skrtel	Agger	Flanagan	5	5	1.00	2
Toure	Skrtel	Sakho		5	7	1.40	0
Flanagan	Skrtel	Agger	Johnson	2	3	1.50	1
Wisdom	Skrtel	Sakho	Enrique	1	2	2.00	0
Johnson	Skrtel	Agger	Flanagan	2	4	2.00	0
Johnson	Skrtel	Sakho	Cissohko	1	2	2.00	0
Johnson	Skrtel	Sakho	Agger	1	2	2.00	0
Johnson	Skrtel	Sakho	Flanagan	5	10	2.00	0
Johnson	Skrtel	Toure	Cissohko	2	5	2.50	0
Johnson	Skrtel	Toure	Flanagan	1	3	3.00	0

Those are sorted by goals allowed per match and if we break it down per player:

	ms	ga	gapm	cs	cs%
Agger	16	15	0.94	8	0.50
Cissohko	9	11	1.22	3	0.33
Johnson	27	36	1.33	9	0.33
Toure	15	20	1.33	3	0.20
Skrtel	36	50	1.39	8	0.22
Flanagan	22	31	1.41	5	0.23
Sakho	17	26	1.53	1	0.06

It's pretty clear our most valuable player on the back line is Agger.  It's not even close.  In fact, we only had 2 clean sheets without him.  What's disappointing is Sakho appears to be the biggest liability.  One clean sheet in 17 starts and the highest goal allowed per match average at 1.53.

I'm not sure what Rodgers plans on doing since it was pretty clear by the end of last season that Skrtel and Sakho were his first choice centre backs.  If they continue last year's form, that's not acceptable.  Agger is our best defensive back and I don't know what else proof the gaffer needs.  We will not win the league next year unless we shore up our defense, no matter what hard decisions need to be made.  I like Sakho, but if that means sitting him, so be it.