Showing posts with label QPR. Show all posts
Showing posts with label QPR. Show all posts

Friday, August 29, 2014

All tomorrow's winners: Man United, Man City, Chelsea, Newcastle, Swansea, & West Ham

Predictions for tomorrow:
Burnley vs Man United
Betting on Burnley is a sucker bet as United's attack is far better than portrayed and Burnley has the worst defence in the league.  This one could get ugly and expect Van Persie to open his account for the season. Burnley 1, Man United 3

Man City vs Stoke
Begovic & company are good enough on defence to hold this to late, but I don't think they will.  City will probably get a goal around the middle of the first half and then add another late.  The Potters just don't have the ability to break down the City defense at the Etihad without a major mistake from their hosts. Look for Dzeko to get his first goal of the season. Man City 2, Stoke 0

Newcastle vs Crystal Palace
Three points will not get any easier for the Magpies.  They boast a decent attack and a respectable defence plus playing at home against Palace, who are dreadful on attack, should give them a significant edge.  If Dwight Gayle plays a significant amount, Palace will get at least a goal from him, but not sure it's worth the risk.  Newcastle 3, Crystal Palace 1

QPR vs Sunderland
Joey Barton and Rio Ferdinand have played exceptionally for their less than exceptional side, but if Remy is not available, this match has draw written all over it.  Sunderland is superior both on attack and in defence, but the confidings of Loftus Road will give QPR a proper boost. QPR 2, Sunderland 2

Swansea vs West Brom
This match could end up being the most exciting of the day.  Swansea is just poor enough on defence to allow a mediocre WBA attack to keep it exciting, but ultimately the superior Swan attack should prevail.  Wilfried Bony is itching for a goal. Swansea 3, WBA 2

West Ham vs Southampton
Another candidate for match of the day, Southampton should have enough to make it interesting against a somewhat decent West Ham defence.  In the end though, the Hammers strength of Allardyce's 'air ball' are the Saints' weakness.  West Ham 2, Southampton 0

Everton vs Chelsea
Despite being at Goodison, I don't think the Toffees will be able to compete with Chelsea, but if they try, the London club could humiliate them.  This is just a bad match-up for the blue side of Merseyside, Chelsea play a similar yet superior style of attack and are far better on defence.  I'll go conservative here though and say Everton 0, Chelsea 2.

Thursday, August 28, 2014

Is Etienne Capoue the best player in the league?

Only players with 120 minutes played are considered.

- Joey Barton leads all EPL players with 10 chances created.  Eden Hazard is second with 9.
- Frazier Campbell is the league leader in pass completion percentage at 95.0%.  Asmir Begovic is second with a 94.4% rate, which is quite impressive for a keeper.  Mignolet is second among goalies with a 78.3% rate.
- Etienne Capoue has completed the most passes with 173.  Yaya Toure is second (164) and Fabregas is third (150).
- Stewart Downing has connected on the most crosses, going 8 of 19, second best are Mark Noble, Joey Barton, and Seb Larsson at 5 a-piece.
- Kaspar Schmeichel has completed and attempted the most long passes, going 23 of 65.  Joey Barton, Jason Shackell, and Phil Jagielka lead all outfield players with 16.
- Andre Schurrle has taken 11 shots, most of any player, but only one has been on-goal.
- Wilfried Bony has 4 shots-on-target, which leads the league, none of them have found the back of the net.
- With 15 successful take-ons, Eden Hazard leads the league and has more than twice as many as any other player.
- Southampton's Graziano Pelle leads with 16 aerial duels won and 36 attempted.  Agbonlahor is second with 34 attempted, but has won only 6.
- Mile Jedinak leads with 15 successful tackles.
- Phil Jones has the most interceptions with 11.  Youssouf Mulumbu is second in both tackles (12) and interceptions (10).
- Ryan Shawcross has leap-frogged Skrtel to take the lead in clearances at 30, our Slovakian has 25.
- Former Man Utd product and current Burnley midfielder, David Jones, is the most valuable player to his team posting a 0.225 efficiency over team average.  Rio Ferdinand is second with a 0.217 eot and Leicester's Andy King is third at 0.193.




Saturday, July 19, 2014

Loic Remy for £8m & Borini for £14m. The apocalypse is upon us.

We have apparently sealed the deal to gain a striker with an amazing goals on pitch difference and let go of one who does not.  I've written about what Loic Remy did for Newcastle last season, when he was on the pitch, they were a much better side.  In fact, had he played all 38 matches for the Magpies, they could have possibly finished with 66 points and ahead of Man United.  Instead, they finished 10th with just 49.

How we got him for £6m less than we sold Borini is beyond me.  Borini does not have the pace to be a star in the Prem.  Sunderland may be the perfect fit for him as their 'grind it out' style better suits his game.  I understand he is still 'young' by many standards, but even at 23, he's had his chance to prove he can be of value to a 'big' club like Liverpool.  If he was smart, he'd go back to Italy, where 'technique' is favored over pace.  That's called sarcasm, Serie A is far from technically superior to the Prem and uses that excuse to make up for it's home grown snail's pace.

If the rumours are true and we've added Remy, that makes three solid adds and one which, at best, will go done as 'meh'.  If Lambert will just let the game come to him like he did at Southampton, he'll be a great contribution, but if he tries to force things, he won't see the pitch much and will be gone after this season. He's not the one I'm referring to as 'meh' though, if Loic Remy is worth only £8m, Lallana should have come on a free.  Speaking of additions, Can was apparently injured today in our 2-1 win over Preston North End, I really hope he it's just a niggling and he'll be okay, we need him to compete for minutes pronto.

Speaking of that match, Jordon Ibe was apparently quite impressive.  I didn't get to watch it due to other obligations, but I did get to see some of the highlights.  This first video shows Ibe finding Suso right outside the box, then the Spaniard does his magic with a fine curler.  The second video shows Ibe hooking up Kristoph Peterson for his second goal of the pre-season.  Will Rodgers take the latter on the tour of the US now?  It looks like he'll have an open spot now that Borini is gone.

Steven Caulker doesn't fancy a tackle

It's not that the 22-year-old is poor at tackling, in fact his 63.8 career percentage is admirable, it's just not his style.  The one-time England international has clearly learned the game from former clubmates Ashley Williams and Ledley King.  Neither of those two were much of tacklers either, but both are/were considered capable defenders.  Caulker still has a way to go before he reaches the level of those two, but at least he's on the right path.
npg90gc90cc90ap90ccvTTI90
0.090.110.270.039.18.1
pass%bp%sacc%shot%intp90clrp90
8322.831.310.51.398.47
drbp90bs90tp90tack%adw90adw%
0.221.151.2263.82.856.2
gsp90gap90gop90tgopgopd
1.121.56-0.44-0.25-0.19
Stats definitions can be found here.

Those are his career stats from the last three Premier League seasons.  He spent 2011-12 on loan to Swansea, where he paired with Williams, 2012-13 at Spurs, and in the summer of 2013, Tottenham sold him to Cardiff.  Three years, three different clubs, and next season he'll be at either QPR or Liverpool, but is he worth buying?

The thing about Caulker is that he was a much better player in his season with the Spurs than at either Welsh club.  He set career highs in goals and assists per 90 minutes played, successful passing, tackling, and shot accuracy percentage, true turnover index per 90 minutes played, interceptions and clearances per 90 minutes played in that campaign.  A couple were particularly impressive, his 89.7% successful pass percentage with only a 27.8% back pass percentage is outstanding and his 4.3 true turnover rate is one of the best I've ever seen.  I can only imagine how impressive his numbers would be if he came to Liverpool.

Probably his most commendable career stat is his 0.22 dribbled past per 90 minutes. If his 0.26 drbp90 from last season at relegated Cardiff, which would have been second to only Skrtel among Liverpool centre backs, doesn't impress, his 0.06 drbp90 in his season at Tottenham is mind-blowing.  Again, that is a number  so low, I'm pretty confident I have never seen anything like it.  For perspective, Lovren posted a 0.48 drbp90 last season at Southampton, that would have been worst among Liverpool centre backs last season, even behind the 0.44 put up by 'Ole Man' Toure.

If we can get Caulker for the £8m that QPR apparently bid (and was accepted), by all means we should sign him.  Even £10m is an acceptable amount.  He is right-footed and will give Skrtel a run for his money, not to mention the Slovak and Agger are both 29-years-old and not getting any younger.  If Sakho shows improvement and adapts better to the English game next season, he and Caulker would be a force hard to reckon with for years to come.

Saturday, July 12, 2014

Loic Remy for £10m?! Truly mental!

QPR selling Loic Remy for only £10m is insane.  He's worth twice that, easy. If Rodgers can get him for £15m, that's still a great piece of business. Here's why:

Loic RemySturridge
age2724
app(subs)24(2)26(3)
mins20982267
p9023.325.2
goals1421
assist37
chances3029
npgp900.60.83
gcp900.731.1
ccp901.291.2
ap900.130.28
ccv1023.3
pass%80.879.3
bp%5853.4
sacc%35.642.4
shot%15.621.2
TTI9011.211
gap901.071.23
gsp901.592.7
gop900.521.47
tgop-0.421.32
gopd900.940.15

The number in blue on the bottom there is goals on pitch difference per 90 minutes played.  0.94 is phenomenal, especially for a player who has played as many matches and minutes as Remy.  It essentially means he was worth +36 goals when he took the pitch for Newcastle last season.  Need more convincing of his value? In the 26 matches that Remy featured, Newcastle garnered 45 points, the 12 he didn't, they only managed 4. 4!

The great thing is, none of his stats, except for maybe back pass percentage, hurt his value.  His 1.29 chances created per 90 and 10% chance created value are solid for a shoot-first striker.  He's above average with his shot opportunities and has a TTI90 comparable to Sturridge, but much better than Suarez at 17.

The only thing I worry about is how he would work with Sturridge, though I think they'll be able to adapt to one another since both are good on the ball and demonstrate intelligent football skills.  Lambert is still going to surprise some people when he and Studge are on the pitch together though.

The bottom line is Rodgers needs to sign Remy and now.  I have never seen that kind of goals on pitch difference and total points difference for a player and for £10m?! Ridiculous. 

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