It has officially become a two horse race. Sure, Spurs, Chelsea, and even the Gunners could go on a run, but in the end, it will take a significant collapse by City and LFC to allow those clubs back in the hunt for the PL title. Probably not going to happen. City is on pace to bank 104 points, while LFC is on track for 99, neither will probably end up with those totals, but it is most likely safe to say they will end up one and two. The greatest factor is, barring injuries, the remaining schedule.
I cannot stand when people try to claim that strength of schedule is not a factor in the PL. Yes, every team plays one another twice, once at home and once on the road, but when these matches are played is very important as well. It is better to play tougher opponents earlier in the schedule or after rest periods, especially away. Almost any opponent on the road is going to be tough as it is.
So far this season, City has played seven out of fifteen matches on the road. Liverpool have only played eight, but it is still one more match that they are more likely to get 3 points. City has played Arsenal, Tottenham, and LFC away, earning an impressive 7 points, with the only non-win being at Anfield. They were lucky to play the Gunners on the opening round, now I doubt they would have gotten away with a similar 2-0 result since Arsenal has improved significantly. That is also a factor, some clubs get better as the season progressives and Arsenal, Everton, Brighton, Newcastle, and West Ham have all showed improvement since the beginning. This also means that City have yet to play at Chelsea and United, which I'm hoping the latter is actually a contest. I don't think I have ever cheered United on, it will be painful, but I have to do so if I hope for the league title. Liverpool have played at Spurs, Chelsea, and at Gunners, earning 5 points. They had the misfortune of playing an improved Gunners side in week 11 and honestly, they were lucky to come away with a point.
Neither LFC nor City have played any significant opponents at home other than themselves at Anfield, so those fixtures are probably must wins for the Reds if they have any aspirations to win the league. City have yet to host Liverpool, which has to be considered the most important fixture left. A win would be monumental, but a draw is probably the best to hope for. They play on January 3rd.
If we look at remaining fixtures, who has the tougher schedule? The hardest fixtures left for Liverpool are home to United (12/16), at City (1/3), at United (2/23), at Everton (2/3), home to Spurs (4/6), and home to Chelsea (4/13). City has at Chelsea (12/8), home to LFC (1/3), home to Arsenal (2/2), home to Chelsea (2/9), at Everton (2/23), at United (3/16), and home to Spurs (4/20). That leaves Liverpool with one less 'hardest' fixture and a potential six point swing, though that is optimistic.
Between the two sides, City really only have the only bad result with a draw at Wolves, so lets look at the potential 'upsets'. Liverpool very well could lose or concede points at Bournemouth in two days (they are sixth in the league after all), at West Ham (2/2),at Wolves (12/21), and at Newcastle (5/4). I highly doubt points will be lost at Newcastle, but karma (Rafa) may come into play. City have home to Everton (12/15), at Newcastle (1/29), and at Bournemouth (3/2). Liverpool have it a little rougher with these mid-table/trending fixtures, but we are really only talking maybe a two-point margin.
Finally, the other onerous factor is schedule congestion with regards to opponent strength. City has to play at Chelsea, Leicester, and Southampton, and home to Everton, CP, Liverpool in a 35 day period between 1/8 and 2/3. They play their toughest matches first (at Chelsea) and last (home to Liverpool), with only one 'challenging' in between (at Everton). Meanwhile, LFC have to play away to Bournemouth, Wolverhampton, and City, and at home to United, Newcastle, and Arsenal. Liverpool clearly have a tougher schedule during this period.
There is also Champions League, FA Cup, and League Cup fixtures to consider, but based on just the PL schedule, Liverpool have a slight advantage though it will take a at least one significant upset on City's part and a perfect LFC run to win the league. I don't want to say anything is impossible though.
Showing posts with label Chelsea. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Chelsea. Show all posts
Thursday, December 6, 2018
Thursday, September 18, 2014
EPL Fantasy Week 5: Slim pickings (Everton, Tottenham, and...)
Well, last week you could pick names out of a hat and have a good shot of putting together a solid squad, this week there won't be many names to draw. The clubs to go with are Everton or Tottenham, but if you have to pick from other squads, I'd go Arsenal, Swansea, or Hull.
Keeper
Tim Howard or Hugo Llloris. If you want to get adventurous, go with Szczesny, since Aston Villa can only score on set pieces and put backs.
Long term, Mignolet will probably not blunder for at least 3-4 matches now that he goofed on Tuesday. Plus Liverpool do have a rather easy run upon them. Begovic is still the best keeper in the league and Stoke are still the best defence, so their upcoming fixtures seem manageable on paper. If you're really into gambling Forster hasn't been the worst form lately and Southampton should be competitive in the next 5 matches or so.
Defenders
Everton's back four of Baines, Jagielka, Stones, and Coleman, if that's who start, are all candidates, as are Tottenham's Kaboul, Dier, Vertonghen, and Danny Rose. Arsenal and Man U defenders should be decent as well with latter playing a Leicester side that will try to play a very 'controlled' match. In other words a 0-0 draw will be as good as a victory for them. Don't bet on that result though. If I went with my gut, I'd go Chambers, Dier, Rojo, and Jagielka.
Lovren, Shawcross, Moreno, and Alderweireld would be my best bets for the next 4-5 weeks.
Midfielders
Here's where you can get a little risky and not sacrifice points like on defence. Still Mirallas and McGeady from Everton along with Chadli, Lamela, and Eriksen from Tottenham are the most likely/safest picks. Arsenal midfielders are a shot in the dark, only because there are so many to chose from, you don't know who'll play. Last week I was sure Cazorla would make an impact and he never saw the pitch. The obvious is Ramsey, but even Flamini can put in a decent match here and there. The same with Swansea, as you never know who's going to have big day, you're most likely high scorer is Sigurdsson, but Dyer, Shelvey, Sung-Yeung, and Routledge could all go off any given match. Out of all those above, I'd go Mirallas, Chadli, Lamela, and Dyer.
In the long term, Sterling, Schniederlin, Victor Moses, DiMaria and Tadic are the most likely to produce mucho points.
Forward
The most obvious picks here Lukaku and Adebayor, but don't fret over Naismith and Eto'o is a decent roll of the dice. I don't know about Harry Kane though, you got some brass cajones if you pick him up. If you want to go Arsenal, Welbeck is bound to have a decent match at some point, but if you want to play it safe there's always Alexis Sanchez. Other players worth a shot include Jelavic and Abel Hernandez at Hull and Wilfried Bony for Swansea, who is bound to get his starting spot back after Gomis unable to take advantage of his first start.
My long term forwards are Balotelli, Pelle, Diouf, and Flacao.
Keeper
Tim Howard or Hugo Llloris. If you want to get adventurous, go with Szczesny, since Aston Villa can only score on set pieces and put backs.
Long term, Mignolet will probably not blunder for at least 3-4 matches now that he goofed on Tuesday. Plus Liverpool do have a rather easy run upon them. Begovic is still the best keeper in the league and Stoke are still the best defence, so their upcoming fixtures seem manageable on paper. If you're really into gambling Forster hasn't been the worst form lately and Southampton should be competitive in the next 5 matches or so.
Defenders
Everton's back four of Baines, Jagielka, Stones, and Coleman, if that's who start, are all candidates, as are Tottenham's Kaboul, Dier, Vertonghen, and Danny Rose. Arsenal and Man U defenders should be decent as well with latter playing a Leicester side that will try to play a very 'controlled' match. In other words a 0-0 draw will be as good as a victory for them. Don't bet on that result though. If I went with my gut, I'd go Chambers, Dier, Rojo, and Jagielka.
Lovren, Shawcross, Moreno, and Alderweireld would be my best bets for the next 4-5 weeks.
Midfielders
Here's where you can get a little risky and not sacrifice points like on defence. Still Mirallas and McGeady from Everton along with Chadli, Lamela, and Eriksen from Tottenham are the most likely/safest picks. Arsenal midfielders are a shot in the dark, only because there are so many to chose from, you don't know who'll play. Last week I was sure Cazorla would make an impact and he never saw the pitch. The obvious is Ramsey, but even Flamini can put in a decent match here and there. The same with Swansea, as you never know who's going to have big day, you're most likely high scorer is Sigurdsson, but Dyer, Shelvey, Sung-Yeung, and Routledge could all go off any given match. Out of all those above, I'd go Mirallas, Chadli, Lamela, and Dyer.
In the long term, Sterling, Schniederlin, Victor Moses, DiMaria and Tadic are the most likely to produce mucho points.
Forward
The most obvious picks here Lukaku and Adebayor, but don't fret over Naismith and Eto'o is a decent roll of the dice. I don't know about Harry Kane though, you got some brass cajones if you pick him up. If you want to go Arsenal, Welbeck is bound to have a decent match at some point, but if you want to play it safe there's always Alexis Sanchez. Other players worth a shot include Jelavic and Abel Hernandez at Hull and Wilfried Bony for Swansea, who is bound to get his starting spot back after Gomis unable to take advantage of his first start.
My long term forwards are Balotelli, Pelle, Diouf, and Flacao.
Wednesday, September 17, 2014
Senderos leads in on-field assaults: EPL week 4 top performers
Aaron Ramsey - 1 assist, 3 chances created, 60/68 passing (88.2%), 1 shot on-target, 4 tackles, 3 interceptions
Jack Wilshere - 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 chances created, 52/65 passing (80%), 1 shot on-target, 10 successful dribbles, 2 tackles, 1 clearance, 1 blocked shot
Cesc Fabregas - 2 assists, 6 chances created, 78/83 passing (94%), 2 successful dribbles, 1 interception, 4/5 crosses, 2/3 long balls
Branislav Ivanovic - 6 chances created, 4/4 aerial duels, 2 successful dribbles, 2 tackles, 1 clearance
Diego Costa - 3 goals, 4 shots on-target, 3 chances created, 24/28 passing (85.7%), 2 successful dribbles, 1 tackle
Eden Hazard - 9 successful dribbles, 4 key passes, 4 chances created, 63/68 passing (92.6%), 2 shots on-target, 2 interceptions
Andrew Robertson - 2 chances created, 1 successful dribble, 7 tackles, 5 interceptions, 4 clearances, 2 blocked shots
Mohamed Diame - 7 tackles, 1 goal, 1 shot on-target, 17/18 passing (94.4%), 2 interceptions, 1 blocked shot
Michael Dawson - 11 clearances, 6 interceptions, 5 blocked shots, 4/7 aerial duels, 1 tackle
Curtis Davies - 16 clearances, 6/6 aerial duels, 4 interceptions, 2 blocked shots, 1 tackle
Jason Puncheon - 4 chances created, 3 successful dribbles, 1 shot on-target, 2 tackles, 1 interceptions, 1 clearance
Ritchie de Laet - 2 chances created, 5/7 aerial duels, 4 tackles, 3 interceptions, 12 clearances, 2 blocked shots
Dejan Lovren - 100/118 passing (84.7%), 11/16 long balls, 7/8 aerial duels, 8 clearances, 3 tackles, 2 interceptions
David Silva - 6 chances created, 4 successful dribbles, 1 shot on-target, 2 tackles, 1 interception
Gael Clichy - 2 chances created, 2 successful dribbles, 7 tackles, 3 interceptions, 3 clearances
Ander Herrera - 1 goal, 1 assist, 4 chances created, 2 successful dribbles, 8 tackles, 1 interception, 1 blocked shot, 77/85 passing (90.6%)
Angel Di Maria - 1 goal, 1 assist, 4 chances created, 2 successful dribble, 1 tackle
Morgan Schneiderlin - 1 goal, 62/69 passing (89.9%), 1 successful dribble, 7 tackles, 2 interceptions, 1 clearance
Victor Moses - 24/24 passing (100%), 4 key passes, 10 successful crosses, 4 successful dribbles, 4 tackles, 1 interception
Christian Eriksen - 1 goal, 3 chances created, 78/87 passing (89.7%), 3 successful dribbles, 2 tackles, 1 interception, 1 clearance
Stewart Downing - 7 chances created, 58/60 passing (96.7%), 1 shot on-target, 1 clearance
Friday, August 29, 2014
All tomorrow's winners: Man United, Man City, Chelsea, Newcastle, Swansea, & West Ham
Predictions for tomorrow:
Burnley vs Man United
Betting on Burnley is a sucker bet as United's attack is far better than portrayed and Burnley has the worst defence in the league. This one could get ugly and expect Van Persie to open his account for the season. Burnley 1, Man United 3
Man City vs Stoke
Begovic & company are good enough on defence to hold this to late, but I don't think they will. City will probably get a goal around the middle of the first half and then add another late. The Potters just don't have the ability to break down the City defense at the Etihad without a major mistake from their hosts. Look for Dzeko to get his first goal of the season. Man City 2, Stoke 0
Newcastle vs Crystal Palace
Three points will not get any easier for the Magpies. They boast a decent attack and a respectable defence plus playing at home against Palace, who are dreadful on attack, should give them a significant edge. If Dwight Gayle plays a significant amount, Palace will get at least a goal from him, but not sure it's worth the risk. Newcastle 3, Crystal Palace 1
QPR vs Sunderland
Joey Barton and Rio Ferdinand have played exceptionally for their less than exceptional side, but if Remy is not available, this match has draw written all over it. Sunderland is superior both on attack and in defence, but the confidings of Loftus Road will give QPR a proper boost. QPR 2, Sunderland 2
Swansea vs West Brom
This match could end up being the most exciting of the day. Swansea is just poor enough on defence to allow a mediocre WBA attack to keep it exciting, but ultimately the superior Swan attack should prevail. Wilfried Bony is itching for a goal. Swansea 3, WBA 2
West Ham vs Southampton
Another candidate for match of the day, Southampton should have enough to make it interesting against a somewhat decent West Ham defence. In the end though, the Hammers strength of Allardyce's 'air ball' are the Saints' weakness. West Ham 2, Southampton 0
Everton vs Chelsea
Despite being at Goodison, I don't think the Toffees will be able to compete with Chelsea, but if they try, the London club could humiliate them. This is just a bad match-up for the blue side of Merseyside, Chelsea play a similar yet superior style of attack and are far better on defence. I'll go conservative here though and say Everton 0, Chelsea 2.
Burnley vs Man United
Betting on Burnley is a sucker bet as United's attack is far better than portrayed and Burnley has the worst defence in the league. This one could get ugly and expect Van Persie to open his account for the season. Burnley 1, Man United 3
Man City vs Stoke
Begovic & company are good enough on defence to hold this to late, but I don't think they will. City will probably get a goal around the middle of the first half and then add another late. The Potters just don't have the ability to break down the City defense at the Etihad without a major mistake from their hosts. Look for Dzeko to get his first goal of the season. Man City 2, Stoke 0
Newcastle vs Crystal Palace
Three points will not get any easier for the Magpies. They boast a decent attack and a respectable defence plus playing at home against Palace, who are dreadful on attack, should give them a significant edge. If Dwight Gayle plays a significant amount, Palace will get at least a goal from him, but not sure it's worth the risk. Newcastle 3, Crystal Palace 1
QPR vs Sunderland
Joey Barton and Rio Ferdinand have played exceptionally for their less than exceptional side, but if Remy is not available, this match has draw written all over it. Sunderland is superior both on attack and in defence, but the confidings of Loftus Road will give QPR a proper boost. QPR 2, Sunderland 2
Swansea vs West Brom
This match could end up being the most exciting of the day. Swansea is just poor enough on defence to allow a mediocre WBA attack to keep it exciting, but ultimately the superior Swan attack should prevail. Wilfried Bony is itching for a goal. Swansea 3, WBA 2
West Ham vs Southampton
Another candidate for match of the day, Southampton should have enough to make it interesting against a somewhat decent West Ham defence. In the end though, the Hammers strength of Allardyce's 'air ball' are the Saints' weakness. West Ham 2, Southampton 0
Everton vs Chelsea
Despite being at Goodison, I don't think the Toffees will be able to compete with Chelsea, but if they try, the London club could humiliate them. This is just a bad match-up for the blue side of Merseyside, Chelsea play a similar yet superior style of attack and are far better on defence. I'll go conservative here though and say Everton 0, Chelsea 2.
Thursday, August 28, 2014
Is Etienne Capoue the best player in the league?
Only players with 120 minutes played are considered.
- Joey Barton leads all EPL players with 10 chances created. Eden Hazard is second with 9.
- Frazier Campbell is the league leader in pass completion percentage at 95.0%. Asmir Begovic is second with a 94.4% rate, which is quite impressive for a keeper. Mignolet is second among goalies with a 78.3% rate.
- Etienne Capoue has completed the most passes with 173. Yaya Toure is second (164) and Fabregas is third (150).
- Stewart Downing has connected on the most crosses, going 8 of 19, second best are Mark Noble, Joey Barton, and Seb Larsson at 5 a-piece.
- Kaspar Schmeichel has completed and attempted the most long passes, going 23 of 65. Joey Barton, Jason Shackell, and Phil Jagielka lead all outfield players with 16.
- Andre Schurrle has taken 11 shots, most of any player, but only one has been on-goal.
- Wilfried Bony has 4 shots-on-target, which leads the league, none of them have found the back of the net.
- With 15 successful take-ons, Eden Hazard leads the league and has more than twice as many as any other player.
- Southampton's Graziano Pelle leads with 16 aerial duels won and 36 attempted. Agbonlahor is second with 34 attempted, but has won only 6.
- Mile Jedinak leads with 15 successful tackles.
- Phil Jones has the most interceptions with 11. Youssouf Mulumbu is second in both tackles (12) and interceptions (10).
- Ryan Shawcross has leap-frogged Skrtel to take the lead in clearances at 30, our Slovakian has 25.
- Former Man Utd product and current Burnley midfielder, David Jones, is the most valuable player to his team posting a 0.225 efficiency over team average. Rio Ferdinand is second with a 0.217 eot and Leicester's Andy King is third at 0.193.
- Joey Barton leads all EPL players with 10 chances created. Eden Hazard is second with 9.
- Frazier Campbell is the league leader in pass completion percentage at 95.0%. Asmir Begovic is second with a 94.4% rate, which is quite impressive for a keeper. Mignolet is second among goalies with a 78.3% rate.
- Etienne Capoue has completed the most passes with 173. Yaya Toure is second (164) and Fabregas is third (150).
- Stewart Downing has connected on the most crosses, going 8 of 19, second best are Mark Noble, Joey Barton, and Seb Larsson at 5 a-piece.
- Kaspar Schmeichel has completed and attempted the most long passes, going 23 of 65. Joey Barton, Jason Shackell, and Phil Jagielka lead all outfield players with 16.
- Andre Schurrle has taken 11 shots, most of any player, but only one has been on-goal.
- Wilfried Bony has 4 shots-on-target, which leads the league, none of them have found the back of the net.
- With 15 successful take-ons, Eden Hazard leads the league and has more than twice as many as any other player.
- Southampton's Graziano Pelle leads with 16 aerial duels won and 36 attempted. Agbonlahor is second with 34 attempted, but has won only 6.
- Mile Jedinak leads with 15 successful tackles.
- Phil Jones has the most interceptions with 11. Youssouf Mulumbu is second in both tackles (12) and interceptions (10).
- Ryan Shawcross has leap-frogged Skrtel to take the lead in clearances at 30, our Slovakian has 25.
- Former Man Utd product and current Burnley midfielder, David Jones, is the most valuable player to his team posting a 0.225 efficiency over team average. Rio Ferdinand is second with a 0.217 eot and Leicester's Andy King is third at 0.193.
Chelsea & Tottenham dominate most outstanding performances from Matchday Two
Most outstanding performances from matchday two:
Calum Chambers, Arsenal
47/49 passing, 95.9%, 1 cc, 2 tackles, 1 int, 10 clearances
Dean Marney, Burnley
62/67 passing, 92.5%, 6/7 long passes, 2 cc, 5 tackles, 4 ints, 2 clearances
Eden Hazard, Chelsea
1 goal, 48/54 passing, 88.9%, 7 cc, 6 successful take-ons, 2 sot
Cesc Fabregas, Chelsea
72/77 passes, 93.5%, 4 cc, 2 sot, 3 take-ons, 1 tackles
Cesar Azpilicueta, Chelsea
50/55 passes, 90.9%, 1 cc, 5 tackles, 2 ints, 6 clearances
Mile Jedinak, Crystal Palace
9/10 aerial duels, 1 cc, 6 tackles, 4 ints, 1 blocked shot
Antonio Valencia, Man United
54/59 passing, 91.5%, 1 cc, 7 tackles, 3 ints, 1 blocked shot
Joey Barton, QPR
42/50 passing, 84%, 9/13 long passes, 4 cc, 7 tackles, 2 ints
Ryan Shawcross, Stoke
1 goal, 2 sot, 1 take-on, 3 tackles, 1 int, 12 clearances, 1 blocked shot
Ashley Williams, Swansea
61/67 passes, 91%, 10/15 long passes, 2 tackles, 2 ints, 11 clearances
Emmanuel Adebayor, Tottenham
1 g, 1 ast, 38/42 passing, 90.5%, 4 cc, 2 sot, 1 take-on, 1 int, 1 clearance
Erik Lamela, Tottenham
2 assists, 43/48 passing, 89.6%, 3 cc, 5 take-ons, 3 tackles, 2 ints
Nacer Chadli, Tottenham
2 goals, 26/28 passing, 92.9%, 1 cc, 1 take-on, 2 ints, 1 clearances
Eric Dier, Tottenham
1 g, 42/48 passing, 87.5%, 1 cc, 1 take-on, 7 tackles, 1 clearance
Danny Rose, Tottenham
1 assist, 59/66 passing, 89.4%, 1 cc, 5/7 aerial duels, 2 tckls, 3 ints, 4 clrs
Youssouf Mulumbu, WBA
50/58 passing, 86.2%, 1 take-on, 9 tackles, 6 ints, 1 blocked shot
Cheikhou Kouyate, West Ham
1 assist, 1 cc, 2 sot, 5/10 aerial duels, 4 take-ons, 5 tckls, 2 ints, 2 clearances
Calum Chambers, Arsenal
47/49 passing, 95.9%, 1 cc, 2 tackles, 1 int, 10 clearances
Dean Marney, Burnley
62/67 passing, 92.5%, 6/7 long passes, 2 cc, 5 tackles, 4 ints, 2 clearances
Eden Hazard, Chelsea
1 goal, 48/54 passing, 88.9%, 7 cc, 6 successful take-ons, 2 sot
Cesc Fabregas, Chelsea
72/77 passes, 93.5%, 4 cc, 2 sot, 3 take-ons, 1 tackles
Cesar Azpilicueta, Chelsea
50/55 passes, 90.9%, 1 cc, 5 tackles, 2 ints, 6 clearances
Mile Jedinak, Crystal Palace
9/10 aerial duels, 1 cc, 6 tackles, 4 ints, 1 blocked shot
Antonio Valencia, Man United
54/59 passing, 91.5%, 1 cc, 7 tackles, 3 ints, 1 blocked shot
Joey Barton, QPR
42/50 passing, 84%, 9/13 long passes, 4 cc, 7 tackles, 2 ints
Ryan Shawcross, Stoke
1 goal, 2 sot, 1 take-on, 3 tackles, 1 int, 12 clearances, 1 blocked shot
Ashley Williams, Swansea
61/67 passes, 91%, 10/15 long passes, 2 tackles, 2 ints, 11 clearances
Emmanuel Adebayor, Tottenham
1 g, 1 ast, 38/42 passing, 90.5%, 4 cc, 2 sot, 1 take-on, 1 int, 1 clearance
Erik Lamela, Tottenham
2 assists, 43/48 passing, 89.6%, 3 cc, 5 take-ons, 3 tackles, 2 ints
Nacer Chadli, Tottenham
2 goals, 26/28 passing, 92.9%, 1 cc, 1 take-on, 2 ints, 1 clearances
Eric Dier, Tottenham
1 g, 42/48 passing, 87.5%, 1 cc, 1 take-on, 7 tackles, 1 clearance
Danny Rose, Tottenham
1 assist, 59/66 passing, 89.4%, 1 cc, 5/7 aerial duels, 2 tckls, 3 ints, 4 clrs
Youssouf Mulumbu, WBA
50/58 passing, 86.2%, 1 take-on, 9 tackles, 6 ints, 1 blocked shot
Cheikhou Kouyate, West Ham
1 assist, 1 cc, 2 sot, 5/10 aerial duels, 4 take-ons, 5 tckls, 2 ints, 2 clearances
Friday, August 22, 2014
Fantasy Picks for Matchday 2: Tottenham, Southampton, Chelsea, Swansea, & Hull
Note: I don't play fantasy football myself, but I was asked who I would pick this week and for the next month or so (plus a few 'alternates'). So, using my vast vault of useless data, here's my picks:
Keeper
This week: Lloris (Tottenham)
Alternate: McGregor (Hull), Courtois (Chelsea)
Long term: Forster (Southampton), McGregor (Hull), Mannone (Sunderland), Krul (Newcastle)
Defenders
This week: Clyne (Southampton), Davies (Hull), Kelly (CP), Rose (Tottenham)
Alternates: Chester (Hull), Vlaar (Aston Villa), Kaboul (Tottenham), Ivanovic (Chelsea)
Long term: Clyne (Southampton), Coloccini (Newcastle), A. Williams (Swansea), Wilson (Stoke), Davies (Hull), Chester (Hull), Kelly (CP), Ward (CP), Shawcross (Sunderland), Cahill (Che)
Midfielders
This week: Hazard (Che), Shelvey (Swansea), Bentaleb (Tottenham), Schneiderlin (Southampton)
Alternates: Ince (Hull), Fabregas (Che), Ward-Prose, Tadic (Southampton), Mata (Man U)
Long term: All listed Southampton midfielders above plus S. Davis, Wanyama, & Ramirez if you are feeling extra lucky, Ince (Hull), Fabregas, Schurrle, Oscar (Che), Cabella (Newcastle), Mata, Fletcher, Young (Man U)
Forwards
This week: Adebayor (Tottenham), Costa (Chelsea)
Alternates: Bony (Swansea), Long (Southampton), Weimann (Aston Villa)
Long Term: Rooney (Man U), Jelavic (Hull), Gouffran (Newcastle), Berahino (WBA)
That's all I got, sorry a bit short on the strikers, but it what it is.
Keeper
This week: Lloris (Tottenham)
Alternate: McGregor (Hull), Courtois (Chelsea)
Long term: Forster (Southampton), McGregor (Hull), Mannone (Sunderland), Krul (Newcastle)
Defenders
This week: Clyne (Southampton), Davies (Hull), Kelly (CP), Rose (Tottenham)
Alternates: Chester (Hull), Vlaar (Aston Villa), Kaboul (Tottenham), Ivanovic (Chelsea)
Long term: Clyne (Southampton), Coloccini (Newcastle), A. Williams (Swansea), Wilson (Stoke), Davies (Hull), Chester (Hull), Kelly (CP), Ward (CP), Shawcross (Sunderland), Cahill (Che)
Midfielders
This week: Hazard (Che), Shelvey (Swansea), Bentaleb (Tottenham), Schneiderlin (Southampton)
Alternates: Ince (Hull), Fabregas (Che), Ward-Prose, Tadic (Southampton), Mata (Man U)
Long term: All listed Southampton midfielders above plus S. Davis, Wanyama, & Ramirez if you are feeling extra lucky, Ince (Hull), Fabregas, Schurrle, Oscar (Che), Cabella (Newcastle), Mata, Fletcher, Young (Man U)
Forwards
This week: Adebayor (Tottenham), Costa (Chelsea)
Alternates: Bony (Swansea), Long (Southampton), Weimann (Aston Villa)
Long Term: Rooney (Man U), Jelavic (Hull), Gouffran (Newcastle), Berahino (WBA)
That's all I got, sorry a bit short on the strikers, but it what it is.
Thursday, August 21, 2014
Mental Team Stats from Matchday One
Most efficient in possession
Keeping the ball away from City would be ideal. And Jesus Navas didn't even play.
| Man City | 0.695 |
| Arsenal | 0.690 |
| Man U | 0.681 |
| Everton | 0.676 |
| Chelsea | 0.673 |
| Liverpool | 0.645 |
Defensive efficiency
| C Palace | 0.212 |
| Sunderland | 0.172 |
| Hull City | 0.150 |
| Leicester | 0.136 |
| Swansea | 0.130 |
Crystal Palace continues their dominating defensive form from last season, meanwhile City is 11th (0.102), Liverpool is 12th (0.100), and Man United are dead last (0.057).
Overall Efficiency
| Man City | 0.798 |
| Arsenal | 0.766 |
| Chelsea | 0.749 |
| Everton | 0.746 |
| Liverpool | 0.746 |
The most important of these three numbers taking into account all favorable actions of players (i.e. keeping possession and preventing the other side from scoring). Arsenal is only ranked high here because of their passing, I expect them to fall rapidly as they play sides that focus more on possession-based defence instead of Palace's somewhat suicidal 'mighty fortress' stance.
Chance created value
| Swansea | 0.400 |
| Crystal Palace | 0.333 |
| Chelsea | 0.222 |
| Liverpool | 0.200 |
| Everton | 0.167 |
United is in a ton of trouble if they don't get some help on defence, Swansea has a decent attack but it's no where near the abilities of the top clubs.
Tidbits
- West Ham created the most chances of any side with 13, but failed to score. They also connected on the most crosses with 11, while Tottenham was the only club that was unsuccessful on all their cross attempts, going 0 for 13.
- Arsenal completed the most passes with 640, 89 more than 2nd-most Chelsea, but they attempted the least amount of long balls in 34.
- QPR took the most shots (19) and tied for the most on goal (6) with Arsenal and Southampton, but failed to score.
- Liverpool lead all sides in take-ons with 15.
- Not surprising, even though Howard Webb retired, Man United 'won' the most fouls with 20.
- Only three clubs had multiple assists: Chelsea, Liverpool, and Swansea, all three sides won.
Thursday, August 14, 2014
Second place has been a 'bad omen' for Liverpool
In the 22 seasons of Premier League history, 11 times the previous season second-place finisher has won the league. For those of you who are mathematically-challenged, that's 50% of the time. Unfortunately, this has happened the last two seasons, but never three seasons in a row. Also, Liverpool have finished 2nd twice before, in 2001-02 and 2008-09, but faultered to fifth and seventh in their respective following seasons.
In 1992-93, the inaugural Premiership season, Aston Villa finished second. Featuring Liverpool greats Ray Houghton and Steve Staunton, as well as a young Dwight Yorke, the Villans lead the table late into March before only managing 10 points in the final 8 matches. It was their best campaign in a dozen years and their best since. They would finish 10th the following year.
The worst finish for a previous season second place side was Newcastle in 1997-98. In fact, Newcastle had finished runner-up to Man United for two years in a row. Oddly enough, the Magpies were managed by Kenny Dalglish and featured John Barnes, Ian Rush, and Dalglish's son, Paul. John Barnes led them in league goals with 6, while Rush struggled for playing time against Alan Shearer. Dalglish would be sacked two matches into the 98-99 season.
In 2011-12, Chelsea fell victim to the 'Liverpool curse'. With Fernando Torres and Raul Meireles in their squad (as well as Daniel Sturridge, but he doesn't count), they went from 2nd to 6th, their worst finish under Abramovich and in ten seasons. It lead to Andres Villas-Boas being sacked in March 2012 and Robert Di Matteo being appointed caretaker manager. Though they did win the FA Cup, 2-1 over Liverpool might I add, and Champions League that year.
Not even the 2008-09 Chelsea side that went from runner-up to third escapes the 'jinx', though the link is minor. Former albeit brief LFC striker, Nicolas Anelka, lead the Blues in scoring, both in the league and in all competitions, but couldn't prevent their third place finish.
It's not all black cats and broken mirrors though, Liverpool have won the First Division five times (75-76, 78-79, 85-86, 87-88, & 89-90) after finishing runners-up the previous year. Though that only makes it 5 league titles after 13 second place finishes.
In 1992-93, the inaugural Premiership season, Aston Villa finished second. Featuring Liverpool greats Ray Houghton and Steve Staunton, as well as a young Dwight Yorke, the Villans lead the table late into March before only managing 10 points in the final 8 matches. It was their best campaign in a dozen years and their best since. They would finish 10th the following year.
The worst finish for a previous season second place side was Newcastle in 1997-98. In fact, Newcastle had finished runner-up to Man United for two years in a row. Oddly enough, the Magpies were managed by Kenny Dalglish and featured John Barnes, Ian Rush, and Dalglish's son, Paul. John Barnes led them in league goals with 6, while Rush struggled for playing time against Alan Shearer. Dalglish would be sacked two matches into the 98-99 season.
In 2011-12, Chelsea fell victim to the 'Liverpool curse'. With Fernando Torres and Raul Meireles in their squad (as well as Daniel Sturridge, but he doesn't count), they went from 2nd to 6th, their worst finish under Abramovich and in ten seasons. It lead to Andres Villas-Boas being sacked in March 2012 and Robert Di Matteo being appointed caretaker manager. Though they did win the FA Cup, 2-1 over Liverpool might I add, and Champions League that year.
Not even the 2008-09 Chelsea side that went from runner-up to third escapes the 'jinx', though the link is minor. Former albeit brief LFC striker, Nicolas Anelka, lead the Blues in scoring, both in the league and in all competitions, but couldn't prevent their third place finish.
It's not all black cats and broken mirrors though, Liverpool have won the First Division five times (75-76, 78-79, 85-86, 87-88, & 89-90) after finishing runners-up the previous year. Though that only makes it 5 league titles after 13 second place finishes.
Tuesday, August 12, 2014
Eto'o just as good as Van Persie last season
I don't understand why so many Liverpool fans are against signing Eto'o on a free. The arguments of his 'loss of pace' are grossly over-exaggerated if not unproven and defining him as a 'mercenary' is just delusionary. Welcome to modern football, swallow your pride or go back to being a mid-table club.
What's even more pathetic are United fans joking about Liverpool possibly signing the 32-year-old Cameroonian. Eto'o was just as good as Van Persie last year, but that would take intelligence to understand and I don't give the Manc mongoloids that much credit. Here is a comparison of their stats from last season:
What's even more pathetic are United fans joking about Liverpool possibly signing the 32-year-old Cameroonian. Eto'o was just as good as Van Persie last year, but that would take intelligence to understand and I don't give the Manc mongoloids that much credit. Here is a comparison of their stats from last season:
| npg90 | ap90 | gc90 | cc90 | pass% | sacc% | shot% | tti90 | gopd90 | gopd | |
| Eto'o | 0.62 | 0.14 | 0.76 | 1.53 | 0.761 | 0.441 | 0.153 | 11.3 | 1.18 | 0.02 |
| RVP | 0.57 | 0.17 | 0.86 | 0.97 | 0.767 | 0.339 | 0.161 | 10.5 | 0.40 | -0.15 |
Eto'o scored more non-penalty goals and created more chances per 90 minutes played. The most damning stat is their value to their respective clubs, Eto'o may not have been the 'world class' goal scorer he once was, but at least he didn't have a negative effect on his team's performance. Van Persie's -0.15 goals on pitch difference suggests he was detrimental toward Man United's winning efforts. Seems like the joke's on Man United as they are definitely going to keep a 31-year-old striker who is often injured and failed to help his side's seventh place cause last season. I guess it's good they won't be venturing far from home next season.
Saturday, August 9, 2014
Is this free 'World Class' striker the solution?
It's getting to the point that almost any signing that can contribute more than Aspas did last season will have to do, but what if there were a proven, experienced striker still out there and he wouldn't cost Liverpool a dime? Well, there is, and his name is Samuel Eto'o.
For those who think that the Cameroonian legend is past it, look no further than his production last season for Chelsea. He may be 33, but he's still got the ability to post respectable numbers. Here's his output from last season:
For those who think that the Cameroonian legend is past it, look no further than his production last season for Chelsea. He may be 33, but he's still got the ability to post respectable numbers. Here's his output from last season:
| npg90 | ap90 | gc90 | cc90 | pass% | sacc% | shot% | tti90 | gopd |
| 0.62 | 0.14 | 0.76 | 1.53 | 0.761 | 0.441 | 0.153 | 11.3 | 0.02 |
He basically created three goals every four matches, not too bad for an 'old man', and he turned over the ball less than Sterling or Suarez.
Apparently he is currently in talks with Ajax, which is interesting because he allegedly was asking too high of wages from interested clubs. Ajax is not going to pay him an exorbitant salary and LFC could easily pay him more.
He would obviously just be around for a season, which may not appeal to him, but he's only needed to 'buy time' until Origi returns or another long term option is found. I really don't see what we have to lose, if he ends up a failure, oh well, we got him on a free, if he makes a splash, he was a 'genius buy'. Even if he repeats his output from last season, 9 goals and 2 assists in about fourteen-and-a-half matches worth of minutes, it'll be well worth sigining him up.
Monday, July 28, 2014
Do desperate times call for Christian Benteke?
Last summer, Christian Benteke was one of the most sought after strikers in the Prem. Chelsea and Tottenham both made approaches to Villa for his services, but apparently were turned away by a ridiculous £25m transfer fee. Turns out the London clubs played it smart as the Belgian striker endured a injury-riddled sophomore slump in the Prem. Injuries to his hip and knee as well as a ruptured Achilles tendon limited his pitch time to just 24 starts and 2 substitutes. He also further exposed his biggest weaknesses, passing and ball control.
Last season and the season before, Benteke posted true turnover index 90s of 22.2 and 20.7, primarily due to poor passing. Those are some of, if not the, worst numbers I have ever seen. The fact that he declined in his second season from his first is even more alarming. His passing is even less impressive, going from a dismal 64.89% is inaugural season to an abysmal 60.73% last year. At least he isn't passing backwards for percentage sake, posting 46.7% two seasons ago and an improved 45.5% in his second season. Maybe he should do a little more back-passing to save from turning over the ball.
He did make some positive contributions though. For a player who isn't a great passer, he does create chances, nearly two every 90 minutes last season and 1.69 the previous. His non-penalty goal scoring rate of 0.44 every 90 minutes and 0.64 goal created per 90 the last two seasons combined aren't unimpressive either. Probably the oddest stat is his long balls per 90 of 1.19 at a 72.4% success rate, for a forward-lying player he's pretty good at finding others at far lengths.
So should Benteke even be considered an option? Well, the negatives are apparent, though I think his passing would improve on a more talented side and one that plays a less negative-style of football. The turnovers may have something to do with him being 23-years-old, but the fact he showed no improvement from first to second season is worrisome. He is also coming off a very serious injury, but apparently his recovery is going well. I seem to making excuses to sign him, so I'll stop there. He should have to be a bargain basement deal or even a free to be considered at any point, or we really are that desperate.
Last season and the season before, Benteke posted true turnover index 90s of 22.2 and 20.7, primarily due to poor passing. Those are some of, if not the, worst numbers I have ever seen. The fact that he declined in his second season from his first is even more alarming. His passing is even less impressive, going from a dismal 64.89% is inaugural season to an abysmal 60.73% last year. At least he isn't passing backwards for percentage sake, posting 46.7% two seasons ago and an improved 45.5% in his second season. Maybe he should do a little more back-passing to save from turning over the ball.
He did make some positive contributions though. For a player who isn't a great passer, he does create chances, nearly two every 90 minutes last season and 1.69 the previous. His non-penalty goal scoring rate of 0.44 every 90 minutes and 0.64 goal created per 90 the last two seasons combined aren't unimpressive either. Probably the oddest stat is his long balls per 90 of 1.19 at a 72.4% success rate, for a forward-lying player he's pretty good at finding others at far lengths.
So should Benteke even be considered an option? Well, the negatives are apparent, though I think his passing would improve on a more talented side and one that plays a less negative-style of football. The turnovers may have something to do with him being 23-years-old, but the fact he showed no improvement from first to second season is worrisome. He is also coming off a very serious injury, but apparently his recovery is going well. I seem to making excuses to sign him, so I'll stop there. He should have to be a bargain basement deal or even a free to be considered at any point, or we really are that desperate.
Monday, July 14, 2014
Salomon Kalou? No, just no.
Salomon Kalou is a conundrum. Is he any good? Was he ever good? When he transferred from Feyenoord to Chelsea in 2006, he was coming off two productive years where he scored 42 goals in 80 matches in all competitions. Interestingly enough, his strike mate at the Eredivisie club was Dirk Kuyt, who scored 61 goals in 82 matches over that same span.
The first season for the 21-year-old Ivorian at Stamford Bridge was mildly successful as he bagged seven goals and assisted on five more in 1931 minutes played. Though seemingly a 'transition' year, Kalou would fail to improve much on those numbers for his remaining stay with the Blues. He would only manage 36 goals and 25 assists in 156 league appearances and was let go on a free to Lille.
Unfortunately, Ligue 1 hasn't treated him much better:
The first season for the 21-year-old Ivorian at Stamford Bridge was mildly successful as he bagged seven goals and assisted on five more in 1931 minutes played. Though seemingly a 'transition' year, Kalou would fail to improve much on those numbers for his remaining stay with the Blues. He would only manage 36 goals and 25 assists in 156 league appearances and was let go on a free to Lille.
Unfortunately, Ligue 1 hasn't treated him much better:
| npgp90 | gcp90 | ccp90 | ap90 | ccv | |
| 2013-14 | 0.32 | 0.64 | 1.57 | 0.17 | 11.1 |
| 2012-13 | 0.53 | 0.7 | 1.27 | 0.12 | 9.7 |
| pass% | bp% | sacc% | shot% | TTI90 | |
| 2013-14 | 75.9 | 47.9 | 48.9 | 17 | 15.8 |
| 2012-13 | 75.6 | 45.7 | 46.5 | 19.7 | 17.9 |
| gap90 | gsp90 | gop90 | tgop | gopd90 | |
| 2013-14 | 0.7 | 1.28 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.05 |
| 2012-13 | 0.9 | 1.76 | 0.86 | 0.5 | 0.36 |
He has scored 30 goals in 66 matches, 6 of those were penalties though. His passing is painfully average, he turns over the ball too frequently, and his chance created values are nothing to get excited about. At 29, Kalou is the poster boy for 'unreached potential'.
The Liverpool is somehow linked to Kalou, but I don't think he's even worth the pitch time on a free. I'd rather see Ibe get more playing time than waste it on a 29-year-old forward who couldn't prove his worth in six seasons at Chelsea.
Sunday, July 13, 2014
Is Romelu Lukaku worth £26m?
Recent rumours have LFC linked to Chelsea striker, Romelu Lukaku. The 21-year-old Belgian has spent the last two seasons out on loan, first at West Brom and last season at Everton. Let's look at his output from those campaigns:
Everton 2013-14
West Brom 2012-13
| npgp90 | gcp90 | ccp90 | ap90 | ccv |
| 0.53 | 0.74 | 1.13 | 0.21 | 18.8 |
| pass% | bp% | sacc% | shot% | TTI90 |
| 66.5 | 53.3 | 45.9 | 15.3 | 11.1 |
| gap90 | gsp90 | gop90 | tgop | gopd90 |
| 1.06 | 1.9 | 0.84 | 0.58 | 0.26 |
West Brom 2012-13
| npgp90 | gcp90 | ccp90 | ap90 | ccv |
| 0.67 | 0.94 | 1.61 | 0.18 | 11.1 |
| pass% | bp% | sacc% | shot% | TTI90 |
| 72.1 | 57.6 | 48.5 | 17.5 | 15 |
| gap90 | gsp90 | gop90 | tgop | gopd90 |
| 1.8 | 1.7 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0 |
Everton finished 5th last season, while WBA ended up 8th in 2012-13, though the difference between 7th, where Liverpool placed that year, was 12 pts and a 32 goal difference, the second largest point gap next to 19th and 20th, and the largest goal difference by much distance. Lukaku scored 32.1% of goals and was responsible for 39.6% of goals scored for West Brom, while he had part in 24.6% and 34.4% respectively for Everton last season.
The improvement in his chance created value and turnover rate are probably signs of both growth and being surrounded by more capable teammates, which, if he came to Liverpool, would be the case once again. His passing rate is a bit worrisome though, but in the few matches he has played for Chelsea, his percentage was 81.2%, which is significantly better. Why it decreased from WBA to Everton could also be due to the fact that he passed it backward less.
Is he worth £26m though? Well, given his age, physical capabilities, and skills, absolutely. In fact, that could wind up being a bargain. I don't think he'll ever be a world class talent, but I can see him scoring 20-25 goals for a lot of seasons to come. If I were Mourinho, I'd send Torres packing and start playing Lukaku, but you never know with the 'Special One'.
Wednesday, July 9, 2014
Victor Moses: worse than Aspas?
I'm going to go out on a limb and say Victor Moses' loan stay last season was a disaster. In fact, ever since Moses joined Chelsea from Wigan, his career has down-spiraled, but was he really worth all the hype to begin with?
| club | 2009-10 | 2010-11 | 2011-12 | 2012-13 | 2013-14 |
| year | Wigan | Wigan | Wigan | Wig/Che | Liverpool |
| age | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
| app(subs) | 2(12) | 8(13) | 36(2) | 13(11) | 6(13) |
| mins | 443 | 815 | 3212 | 1215 | 651 |
| p90 | 4.9 | 9.1 | 35.7 | 13.5 | 7.2 |
| goals | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 |
| assist | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| chances | 11 | 16 | 41 | 22 | 10 |
| npgp90 | 0.20 | 0.11 | 0.17 | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| gcp90 | 0.82 | 0.44 | 0.20 | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| ccp90 | 2.24 | 1.76 | 1.15 | 1.63 | 1.39 |
| ap90 | 0.61 | 0.33 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0 |
| ccv | 27.2 | 18.8 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 0 |
| pass% | 79.3 | 73.2 | 81.2 | 82.5 | 86.6 |
| bp% | - | - | - | 52.6 | 50.5 |
| sacc% | 21.4 | 29.2 | 29.1 | 21.4 | 36.4 |
| shot% | 7.1 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 9.1 |
| TTI90 | 16.7 | 14.5 | 11.1 | 10.3 | 10 |
| gap90 | 1.63 | 1.43 | 0.76 | 0.82 | 1.38 |
| gsp90 | 2.04 | 1.76 | 1.51 | 1.7 | 1.66 |
| gop90 | 0.41 | 0.33 | 0.75 | 0.88 | 0.28 |
Though he has improved over the years, especially passing and ball-handling, he has yet to develop into the player for which Chelsea paid £10.12m and at 23, he probably never will. His goals on pitch last season, and basically throughout his career, was dreadful. 0.28? For a club that averaged 1.32? A full goal! That is mind-bottling. Just for perspective, Aspas had a 0.94 gopd last season. In fact, let's compare their output from 2013-14:
Moses is the better passer, though his 50.5% back pass rate is only comparable to Aspas. If Moses hadn't scored his lone goal of the season against Swansea, his stats would be unbelievably bad. Arguing who had the better year between the two would be like comparing dog feces with cat dung, who cares? They both smell like shit.
| Aspas | Moses | |
| npgp90 | 0 | 0.14 |
| gcp90 | 0.23 | 0.14 |
| ccp90 | 1.86 | 1.39 |
| ap90 | 0.23 | 0 |
| ccv | 12.4 | 0 |
| pass% | 75.4 | 86.6 |
| bp% | 58.1 | 50.5 |
| sacc% | 50 | 36.4 |
| shot% | 0 | 9.1 |
| TTI90 | 14.4 | 10 |
| gap90 | 0.47 | 1.38 |
| gsp90 | 1.41 | 1.66 |
| gop90 | 0.94 | 0.28 |
Moses is the better passer, though his 50.5% back pass rate is only comparable to Aspas. If Moses hadn't scored his lone goal of the season against Swansea, his stats would be unbelievably bad. Arguing who had the better year between the two would be like comparing dog feces with cat dung, who cares? They both smell like shit.
I don't see what Rodgers sees in him, he doesn't seem to have amazing athletic ability to make up for lack of skill. Honestly he should beg Mourinho to sell him on the cheap to a mid-table club like Stoke or Sunderland, so he can at least have a chance to become a 'cult hero'. Something tells me Martinez would probably take him back under his wing at Everton as well.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)