Is the league still winnable? Can we surpass CIty? A look at the remaining schedules.

It has officially become a two horse race.  Sure, Spurs, Chelsea, and even the Gunners could go on a run, but in the end, it will take a significant collapse by City and LFC to allow those clubs back in the hunt for the PL title.  Probably not going to happen.  City is on pace to bank 104 points, while LFC is on track for 99, neither will probably end up with those totals, but it is most likely safe to say they will end up one and two.  The greatest factor is, barring injuries, the remaining schedule.

I cannot stand when people try to claim that strength of schedule is not a factor in the PL.  Yes, every team plays one another twice, once at home and once on the road, but when these matches are played is very important as well.  It is better to play tougher opponents earlier in the schedule or after rest periods, especially away.  Almost any opponent on the road is going to be tough as it is.

So far this season, City has played seven out of fifteen matches on the road.  Liverpool have only played eight, but it is still one more match that they are more likely to get 3 points.  City has played Arsenal, Tottenham, and LFC away, earning an impressive 7 points, with the only non-win being at Anfield.  They were lucky to play the Gunners on the opening round, now I doubt they would have gotten away with a similar 2-0 result since Arsenal has improved significantly. That is also a factor, some clubs get better as the season progressives and Arsenal, Everton, Brighton, Newcastle, and West Ham have all showed improvement since the beginning.  This also means that City have yet to play at Chelsea and United, which I'm hoping the latter is actually a contest.  I don't think I have ever cheered United on, it will be painful, but I have to do so if I hope for the league title.  Liverpool have played at Spurs, Chelsea, and at Gunners, earning 5 points.  They had the misfortune of playing an improved Gunners side in week 11 and honestly, they were lucky to come away with a point.

Neither LFC nor City have played any significant opponents at home other than themselves at Anfield, so those fixtures are probably must wins for the Reds if they have any aspirations to win the league.  City have yet to host Liverpool, which has to be considered the most important fixture left.  A win would be monumental, but a draw is probably the best to hope for.  They play on January 3rd.

If we look at remaining fixtures, who has the tougher schedule? The hardest fixtures left for Liverpool are home to United (12/16), at City (1/3), at United (2/23), at Everton (2/3), home to Spurs (4/6), and home to Chelsea (4/13).  City has at Chelsea (12/8), home to LFC (1/3), home to Arsenal (2/2), home to Chelsea (2/9),  at Everton (2/23), at United (3/16), and home to Spurs (4/20).   That leaves Liverpool with one less 'hardest' fixture and a potential six point swing, though that is optimistic.

Between the two sides, City really only have the only bad result with a draw at Wolves, so lets look at the potential 'upsets'.  Liverpool very well could lose or concede points at Bournemouth in two days (they are sixth in the league after all), at West Ham (2/2),at Wolves (12/21), and at Newcastle (5/4).  I highly doubt points will be lost at Newcastle, but karma (Rafa) may come into play.  City have  home to Everton (12/15), at Newcastle (1/29),  and at Bournemouth (3/2).  Liverpool have it a little rougher with these mid-table/trending fixtures, but we are really only talking maybe a two-point margin.

Finally, the other onerous factor is schedule congestion with regards to opponent strength. City has to play at Chelsea, Leicester, and Southampton, and home to Everton, CP, Liverpool in a 35 day period between 1/8 and 2/3.  They play their toughest matches first (at Chelsea) and last (home to Liverpool), with only one 'challenging' in between (at Everton).  Meanwhile, LFC have to play away to Bournemouth, Wolverhampton, and City, and at home to United, Newcastle, and Arsenal.  Liverpool clearly have a tougher schedule during this period.

There is also Champions League, FA Cup, and League Cup fixtures to consider, but based on just the PL schedule, Liverpool have a slight advantage though it will take a at least one significant upset on City's part and a perfect LFC run to win the league.  I don't want to say anything is impossible though.

LFC at Man City: Matchday history madness

In the past 20 league meetings at City, Liverpool is 5-9-6, having failed to win at the Etihad in six years, losing 3 of the last 4.  Prior to then, the Reds had suffered three total loses there in 17 years.  Last season they met on Boxing Day with a mystery offside call and a controversial non-call on a penalty shout for Suarez denying LFC a draw and/or possible win.

Their annual league date at City has occurred on week two of the season twice in the past 23 years with Man City winning both ties.  The first was in 1991 at Maine Road with the home side winning 2-1 and the other was in 2010-2011 at Eastlands with City winning 3-0, thanks in part to a brace by Carlos Tevez.

Liverpool is 7-6-7 in their last 20 week two matches away, but have won their last two, at Villa last season and at Emirates in 2011-12.  Of their five wins prior, they've won the league 4 of those times they've won their week two road fixture.

Man City is 9-4-7 in week two fixtures overall for the past 20 seasons.  They have not lost at home in week 2 for 25 years though, posting a 9-2-0 record over that span.  Their last week two loss at home was 1-2 to Southampton in 1989.

The previous season number two is 4-7-9 in their away fixture at the previous season league champion in the past 20 years. Here's an interesting stat, the four times the previous second place side has won, they've gone on to win the league.  Prior to the last two seasons, the defending champs had won five straight, five of six, and was undefeated in 10 (6-4-0).

So what does this say about next Monday's match? Well, history is not on Liverpool's side, that's for sure.  It's too early to make any predictions though, no idea who'll be available or if we my sign an influential player by then.

James Milner: A sad waste of talent and probably now a waste of funds

Following his break-out season at Aston Villa in 2009-10, James Milner seemed destined to do great things, then he signed with Man City.  Instead of developing into a top player for Villa and possibly becoming captain of the Brum club, he has settled for a secondary role at City where he finds himself starting on the bench in 48.9% (68 of 139) of matches he is available and of those, he didn't even make the pitch in 35.2% (24 of 68).

He has won two league titles, an FA Cup, and a League Cup at City though, and has shown what it means to be a true team player, even at the expense of his own evolution. It's admirable in some ways, but I doubt Milner envisioned being a squad player when he originally signed with Man City.  His last season with Villa, at the age of 24, he was finally coming into his own:

g	a	ch	npg90	gc90	cc90	ap90
7	12	69	0.11	0.54	1.96	0.34
pass%	lb%	tb%	cr%	sdrp90	sacc%	shot%
75.6	58.2	35.7	32.6	0.71	34.8	10.6
intp90	clrp90	drbp90	bs90	tp90	adw90	adw%
1.8	0.91	0.97	0.4	2.64	0.43	28.8
ccv	TTI90	gsp90	gap90	gop90	tgop	gopd
17.4	16.9	1.39	1.05	0.34	0.34	0

First, the bad, his 16.9 true turnover index per 90 minutes played is unimpressive to say the least.  He has improved since joining City, reaching a career best of 10.1 in 2011-12 and a 11.4 rate last season, that's on par with Henderson (9.7), Gerrard (10.9), Coutinho (11), and Sterling (12.1). Also, for a player who is characterized as 'strong' when it comes to aerial duels, his won per 90 of 0.43 at a 28.8% success rate is well below the league average of 1.46 at 50%.

His 12 assists that season was third best in the league and his chance created value of 17.4 was well above the league average of 9.2. While normally a goals on pitch difference of 0 is nothing to brag about, in his case it shows that he WAS the team.  Despite losing Gareth Barry the summer prior, Villa still improved their point totals and goal difference from the previous season, and the season after Milner joined City, the Villans plummeted to 9th place, a -24 goal difference, and accumulated 16 less points.

For Liverpool to consider a transfer for the 28-year-old, a what-have-you-done-lately approach is what matters.  Here are his stats from last season where he made only 12 starts, 19 sub-ins, for a total of 1375 minutes:

g	a	ch	npg90	gc90	cc90	ap90
1	3	29	0.07	0.26	1.9	0.2
pass%	bp%	lb%	tb%	cr%	sdrbp90	sdrb%	sacc%	shot%
84	46.4	60	66.6	19.1	1.18	43.9	24	4
intp90	clrp90	drbp90	bs90	tp90	tack%	adw90	adw%
0.65	1.44	1.11	0.06	2.03	50.9	1.05	35.6
ccv	TTI90	gsp90	gap90	gop90	tgop	gopd
10.3	11.4	2.22	1.24	0.98	1.71	-0.73

A regression to say the least, especially considering the quality of his teammates.  His passing has improved, as has his turnover rate, but not much else, and his goals on pitch difference is alarming.  For a midfielder known for playing solid defence, it certainly doesn't look like he's a much of a factor in preventing opponents from scoring.

Milner could have been a legend at Villa, but instead he rots away on the City bench with opportunities becoming more scarce as younger, more creative options surround him and his club have all the funds in the world to go after more if needs be.  The problem is he'll find himself in a similar situation if Liverpool acquire him.  His versatility does play into it a little since he can cover for Glen Johnson at RB, but he won't be much of an improvement.  It really comes down to how cheap City will let him go, anything more than £8m has to be a deal-breaker.

Is Micah Richards an upgrade of Glen Johnson?

Two seasons ago, Micah Richards was on top of the world.  He had helped City win their first Premiership and had worked his way back into England national team consideration.  Then injury devastated his career path and he has seen the pitch just a total of 18 times in all competitions since.

It's tragic since the 26-year-old is actually a pretty remarkable footballer.  In the last 5 seasons, he has made only 79 league appearances for 5866 minutes, equivalent to 65.2 matches, less than two full seasons.  Glen Johnson, on the other hand, has made 141 league appearances for 12267 minutes. Here's how they size up in the last five years combined:

	npg90	gc90	cc90	ap90	pass%	sacc%	shot%
Johnson	0.06	0.14	1.21	0.08	82.3	25.5	5.4
Richards	0.08	0.18	0.46	0.11	82.7	35	8.3
	intp90	clrp90	drbp90	bs90	t90	adw90	adw%
Johnson	1.89	2.41	0.73	0.26	2.51	1.32	58.6
Richards	1.64	4.71	0.52	0.51	1.92	2.90	71.1
	ccv	TTI90	gsp90	gap90	gop90	tgop	gopd
Johnson	6.7	11.6	1.94	1.09	0.95	0.66	0.29
Richards	23.3	8.05	2.02	1.03	0.99	1.42	-0.43

Micah Richards is three years younger and is in the prime of his career, so it should not be surprising that he takes 17 of 21 categories.  Glen Johnson is 29 and in decline, but the elder still seems to be a more important factor to his sides' results.

Richards will definitely have to improve on his chances created per 90 minutes if he wants to stay hold of a starting spot on Rodgers' side.  He may make up for it in nearly every other stat, but a -0.43 goals on pitch difference is a yellow flag in the least.

Richards would be an excellent addition to our club, if he could stay healthy and right now that's an unsurety.  He would probably cost at least £10m, which is a bargain if he can give us at least three productive seasons. At the right price and passing a thorough medical, Richards is the ideal signing, certainly a better choice than Bertrand.

Liverpool vs Man City: A look at the stats

Let's take a look at some key statistics from last season:

(league rank in parenthesis)             LFC                       MCFC
overall possession %                     55.8 (5)                   57.6 (2)
pass success %                             84.5 (4)                   86.1 (1)
chances created                             488 (3)                    533 (1)
shots conceded pg                        12.8 (8)                     9.5 (1)
shots OT pg                                   6.8 (1)                     6.3 (2)
fouled pg                                      10.8 (6)                     8.9 (20)
offsides pg                                     2.1 (9)                     1.6 (19)
open play goals                              55 (3)                       66 (1)
counter attack goals                         9 (1)                        5 (2)
set piece goals                                26 (1)                      20 (2)
crosses pg                                      17 (20)                    23 (6)
through ball pg                                5 (1)                         3 (4)
long balls pg                                   56 (18)                    55 (20)
short passes pg                              469 (4)                    502 (3)
possession in own half %                 29 (13)                    23 (1)
possession in opp half %                 28 (11)                    31 (1)

Clearly some of these are obvious: you keep the ball more (possession %), you make better decisions on the ball (pass success %), you create more chances, you don't allow your opponent many chances, and you keep the ball out of your own half, you've got a better chance to win more games.

What surprised me the most was LFC's attack efficiency, they scored more with less opportunity.  They had a goal per chance opportunity of 4.83 compared to Man City at 5.22.  Against the run of play which factors in possession pct per match, Liverpool is even more impressive since their possession pct was not as high (8.66 compared to 9.06).

Which leaves the white elephant in the room, defense.  Liverpool was not bad defensively, they were just merely average while Man City was very good (though not excellent).  The problem in statistically analyzing defensive performance is that it is nearly impossible to quantify things such as 'forced back pass' or 'passing lane reduction'.  These things limit opportunities of an opponent to score, but unless you watch every match and keep statistics yourself, which neither I nor no one I know has the time to do so, it's just not going to happen.  Plus there are judgement calls.

One thing I find interesting is how little opponent passing pct really matters, even in the attacking third.  According to StatsBomb, through April 21st, Man City was allowing a pass success rate of 81.5% overall and 68.2% in the final third, while LFC were superior in both at 79.2% and 66.7%.  The problem being that direction of pass is not being considered, Man City may be forcing their opponents to make back and horizontal passes by cutting off passing lanes/opportunities.

The bottom line is Man City were the best at preventing opponents from scoring chances, which unfortunately we can only validate by shots conceded per match, and though Liverpool were more efficient offensively, they created less chances for themselves overall (even though it lead to just one more goal overall).

Some observations that I think separated the two sides are lack of discipline by Liverpool defenders, especially Skrtel and Sakho, and not having a true defensive midfielder on the pitch a lot of the time. It also doesn't help that MCFC just has better defensive midfielders in Fernandinho and Javi Garcia with Yaya Toure occasionally deputized.  One of these problems may have been resolved with the addition of Emre Can, but he is closer to a box-to-box than a defensive midfielder and the lack of discipline has to be addressed by the coaching staff or else look for those who will listen.
                  

Liverpool 0, Man City 0: Player ratings

As I said in my review, we actually played quite well, but not well enough. I'm going to have a hard time not reflecting my disappointing of certain players. Anyhow, here's the scale:
1 - Take off the f*%kin' kit
2 - Still not fit to where it
3 - It better have been just a poor day
4 - Drink too much last night, did we?
5 - Glad you showed up
6 - Good effort, but you could do better
7 - Solid performance
8 - Brilliant at times, adequate at others
9 - Top man
10 - Unbelievably f&*kin' brilliant

Pepe Reina 5
Pepe is usually always the hardest player to rate and today was no exception. I mean, he did what he had to to get the clean sheet, but that wasn't much. So giving him a 5 is in no way a negative rating.

Fabio Aurelio 7
Played well in all facets of the game: on defense, on attack, passing, and shooting, and if one of his efforts had even lead to a goal, he would have been a candidate for Man of the Match.

Jamie Carragher 9 Man of the Match
Was simply brilliant in the first half and did what was needed in the second, including getting involved on attack by coming forward at times, but mostly by making some brilliant long passes. He cleared nearly every ball and stopped nearly every Man City attack single-handedly throughout and almost got the assist on the winner.

Alvaro Arbeloa 6
I'm cutting him some slack since he was playing out of position and after about thirty minutes he actually regained composure. In the second half, discipline set in and he appeared much more reliable.

Steve Finnan 6.5
Would have liked him to get more involved on attack, but can't ask for much more from him. This was the second match for him in five days and I don't care how fit a 31-year-old he is, that's still a lot.

Harry Kewell 7
Solid performance, kept the ball well and created chances on attack.

Steve Gerrard 6.5
His distrust of Arbeloa in the first half probably hurt us from taking control of the match before the second half, but once he got involved on attack, asserting ourselves became much easier.

Javier Mascherano 8
A tremendous performance from the Argentine as he plucked away the ball from the Man City players almost effortlessly and got to show off some of his ball-handling skills.

Yossi Benayoun 7
It's hard to get down on Yossi for holding on the ball too long when he creates so much and does make some great passes, but the truth is, he does try to do too much at times.

Dirk Kuyt 7
Probably his best performance of the year. He made some great plays, tried some different things, and made few mistakes. Ultimately though, Kuyt just doesn't have the pace to help us become Premier League champs.

Fernando Torres 5.5
Man City put on a clinic on how to stop El Niño and for the most part it worked. I thought the ref was awfully lenient on the roughness of the Man City defenders, but still, Torres lacked in creativity. Gerrard set him up with a perfect give-and-go which Fernando failed to put through, instead he tried to create something else on his own.

Ryan Babel 6
Like Benayoun, only worse, Babel needs to learn when to give up the ball instead of keeping it himself. It's fine if he scores, but most of the time he doesn't. I don't know if it's just a lack of intuitive skills or selfishness, but it's frustrating and very predictable for the defense.

Liverpool 0, Man City 0: He may be gold, but he's not perfect

I hope that was the worse match I ever see Torres play. Much credit to the Man City defense is due though, particularly Dunne and Richards. I knew that Richards would be able to match El Niño's pace, but I was unaware Dunne would out-power him. That clearly canceled out our young Spanish strikers one-on-one abilities, which leaves him to rely on his other attributes. Obviously he needs to work on his passing, but he's not the only one. Benayoun and Babel frustratingly held on to the ball way too long as well.

In some ways it was a bizarre affair with Kuyt being the better forward on the day, Aurelio basically playing the John Arne Riise role, though an improved version as of late, and Arbeloa starting at centre back, where he appeared to be lost until about a half hour in. Most the positives were on the defensive side of the ball, with Carra and Mascherano not allowing Man City to exert themselves on attack. On the other side, the aforementioned Kuyt had one of his better days while Kewell almost looked back to the form of old.

In the first half, Gerrard arrested most of our attacking development by staying too far back. Maybe he was distrustful of Arbeloa and wanted to make sure he settled in before going too far forward, no matter what, it clearly made us a less dangerous side early on. Carra was absolutely out-of-his-mind in the first half, determined not to allow Man City a lead. Most of the time I don't really care for players taking shots 30 yards plus out, but Aurelio looked the threat, so I say fire away.

The second half was utter domination from our boys, keeping the ball in their half most of the 48 minutes. Our old demon from previous seasons of being unable to finish re-appeared somewhat, but it really was the outstanding play of the Man City defense. Playing back and boring, a staple of the Sven days with the Three Lions, looked to be their game plan, and it worked on the day. We had our chances though and didn't covert, particularly Torres, and usually taking a point away at a side as good as Man City would be a satisfactory result, but we were without a doubt the superior side.

Ultimately, we're going to have to win these matches if we hope to compete for the leauge, especially when Man U falters. Also, playing as well as we did, and overall, we played quite well, while not getting the result, cannot do much for our confidence. Thankfully we have Wigan coming to Anfield on Wednesday.

Liverpool at Man City: I have no clue what Rafa will do...

...mainly because I've been computer-less for about a week now. Which is also the reason for my lack of updates. I apologize, but hey, Man U lost today and Arsenal is losing (knock on wood).

Because I don't have a computer, I'm pretty much lost in what's going on in Liverpool land, so I don't have much of a clue of who's set to go. Is Arbeloa still ill? Have there been any fresh injuries? I have no clue.

So here's my guess anyhow:
Reina
Auelio
Agger
Carragher
Arbeloa (or Finnan)
Riise
Xabi
Mascherano
Gerrard
Kuyt
Torres

Bench:
Itandje
Finnan (or Hobbs)
Babel
Kewell
Benayoun

That's who I'd go with anyhow, pretty much what I consider our best defensive XI. With United's loss today, a win tomorrow has become even more crucial. Cheers, and I should be back tomorrow with a recap though I won't be announcing the starting line-up.

Today's Banter: McClaren coming around?, Barnes relates to Bentley, Mihaylov starts for Bulgaria U21, & more

- Let me first say that it would not bother me even for a second if Gerrard 'retired' from international play. Yes, I know that would never happen, since Stevie-G loves his country nearly as much as he loves his club, but one can dream, can't they? At least I hope so. Anyhow, it looks as if England boss Steve McClown has finally seen the light and decided to give Gerrard the kind of freedom alloted him at LFC. Wow, McClown, you're quite the manager. He even went as far as to call his number four the inspiration of the squad. Recalling the Andorra match at Camp Nou, the England boss stated when Stevie-G took control of the match in the second half and pushed the Three Lions through to three points, he knew how valuable Gerrard was. The fact that it took McClown this long to figure out how special Gerrard is should prove how incompetent he is.

- John Barnes has come out in support of David Bentley, questioning the so-called English 'fans' on what their motives were for booing the 23-year-old. I have to agree with the Liverpool Legend here. It does no good to react like that to one of our young hopefuls for any reason, if he had done something truly horrible, he would have never been offered a spot on the squad. It makes you look like donkeys and him insecure when we need to be instilling him with confidence. I was honestly ashamed by the display, no fan has any right to be any player's judge and jury, and I hope the lad doesn't take it to heart.

- Niklolay Mihaylov, one of thirty-odd keepers on our books, was on the losing end of a U21 match with England, 2-0, though apparently he did quite well in keeping it respectable for his out-manned Bulgarian side. The goals for England were scored by Tom Huddlestone and Mark Noble. I saw Mihaylov play in the preseason and though at times a bit melodramatic, I have to say he is quite good despite hearing otherwise. He is currently out on loan to Eredivisie side, FC Twente.

- Former manager Gerard Houllier has finally decided to end his holiday and become the new technical director of football for France. His first task is to help find a permanent home for Anthony Le Tallec. I personally think he should have to buy the 22-year-old midfielder from us with his own money to make up for the many mistakes he made as when he was in charge here.

- Finally, the transfer rumor of the day is Man City expressing interest in Yossi Benayoun. By the time January rolls around, Yossi will either be injured or be playing more often, so I doubt he'll be unhappy with his situation then. A lot of international matches today so unless something major happens I probably won't be posting until this evening. Cheers.

Fergie loves the 'Pool

In an odd turn of the screw, Manchester United boss and overall managing legend, none other than Sir Alex Ferguson, has praised Liverpool Football Club as the greatest club in the history of the world, ever. And if you believe that, I've got some beautifully refurbished country meadows in New Jersey I'd like to sell you.

No, I think about right now Rafa Benitez and LFC are more likely on Sir Alex's shit list than on his Christmas Card list. His latest comments about the Anfield club includes calling them 'opportunists' in regards to the Heinze controversy and then to add a few logs to the fire he says that he just grew tired of pursuing Torres and pretty much just let us have him. Thanks, Sénor Alec, your generosity is unrivaled.

I won't even address the latter comment since it's obviously just the case of one heartbroken girl veiling her wound after being rejecting by a boy for a girl she deems inferior. As for the 'opportunists' label, if that's not a case of the pot calling the kettle black, I don't know what is. This coming from a man who basically stole Giggs from Man City. At least Fergie admits he'd do the same if the tables were turned and he had the opportunity to sign Steven Gerrard in a similar manner.

Still, it's not like Man U has ever given a rat's ass about anyone else in their pursuit to better themselves. It's pure rubbish for Ferguson to even try to imply that he and his suitors have an ounce of concern for the clubs he plucks his players from. At least Liverpool make an effort to help out smaller clubs like Wrexham, Crewe Alexander, and MTK Hungária FC because they realize their importance in the overall scope of football.

And what's this crap about 'like the rest of them'. Is Sir Alex shitting gold these days? It's not like Man U has much of a history before 1993, before Cantona, before Roy Keane. You're not the cream of the football crop, you're the shit that won't flush.