Skrtel or Sakho? Who is better to partner Lovren?

Despite being far apart on the ethnic field, Martin Skrtel and Mamadou Sakho play an eerily similar style of football on the pitch.  The Slovakian and the Senegalese-Frenchman are both efficient passers, each posting around 90% last season and this campaign so far, neither are very committal to tackling, preferring to play a 'stand-offish', marking style of defense, and both like to get forward, though Sakho does this much more to my liking.  If I had to give an edge to either concerning attacking and/or defending, I'd say Skrtel is actually better on both sides of the ball despite Sakho being more 'creative'.

That is not the question though, it is whom is better to partner our Croatian juggernaut, Dejan Lovren.  To do that, let's take a look at Lovren's style of play.  Our Number Six is not as good a passer as his fellow centre backs, but has improved from last season when he played for Southampton.  So far he's posted an 88.5% pass completion percentage compared to 82% last year, which is even more impressive when you consider he's averaged 17 more pass attempts per a match this season so far.  That probably has more to do with the fact that the Saints averaged nearly 2 more yards per pass and attempted 14 more long balls per match, finishing second in the league with 70 attempts on average. Lovren is also more likely to 'go to ground' and attempt a tackle than Skrtel or Sakho.  He has completed 11 successful tackles this season so far while the other two have 3 combined.

One could argue match-ups should play a part, but there are two great examples from this season that make that argument invalid.  Skrtel paired Lovren at the Etihad which Liverpool lost 3-1 despite playing well.  Unfortunately, City played slightly better even though two of their goals were due to defensive mishap, none the fault of Skrtel though.  In fact, I re-watched an extended highlights video of that match and noticed a lot of friction and distrust displayed between Lovren and Skrtel, but ultimately, the first two goals were mostly the fault of Lovren being out of position.

During the build-up of the first goal, Lovren is more concerned with whether Skrtel is marking Dzeko instead of covering 'his' area, the left side of the box.

As the above still shot from the match shows, Lovren was not in the best possible position and was unable to provide proper coverage for Moreno and Gerrard.  In a panic, he heads the ball right to a surging Jovetic.  Sure, Moreno could have done better to clear, but he shouldn't had to in the first place.

Here is a still shot just before the second goal:

Jovetic has the ball and is about to release both Zabaleta and Nasri with an excellent back heel pass through.  Lovren is way out of position to begin with, why he is so far forward is beyond me.  Jovetic has his back to the goal, which for him to gain possession and right himself would take more than enough time for Henderson and/or Gerrard to collapse on him, so Lovren had no business being there.  Once the break starts, Skrtel had no choice but provide coverage on the left, leaving Johnson to mark Dzeko.  Jovetic sneaked in behind, found himself all alone on the right, and the rest, they say, is history.  Had Lovren stayed behind Zabaleta, he would have most likely been able to clear the ball or at least disrupt play enough to prevent the goal, plus Skrtel would have been able to stay more central and allow Johnson to pick up Jovetic.  One could argue that Lovren was trying to set an offside trap, but if that is so, he's doing a terrible job of communicating it to his fellow defenders.

In the City match, a Skrtel-Lovren pairing was ideal being that Lovren is usually better at maintaining his position than Sakho.  Unfortunately he failed to do so.  For Villa, a Sakho-Lovren pairing is more ideal because Villa is dreadful and adding another player on attack seemingly can only help.  Unfortunately it did not, but once again Lovren was somewhat at fault for the goal.  He was beaten by Senderos on the corner, had Manquillo's arm not blocked the attempt, there was a chance of it getting past Lallana and going in.  It instead fell to Agbonlahor.  I would say Balotelli and Moreno's inability to clear it before it got to Senderos was more of an issue than Lovren's marking.

It would have been nice to have Skrtel for Ludogorets.  I can't see him getting caught out of position as much as Sakho and Lovren did.  I didn't expect to draw this conclusion, but after looking over the stats and watching match highlights, maybe the best pairing for Lovren is a seat on the bench.  The only thing he brings so far is tackling and errors.  That may be harsh, but it is clear he has positioning and communication issues, certainly with Skrtel on the latter.  Maybe Rodgers should give him a couple of matches off and some time to think about his latest performances.  I think he's a great defender and player in general, but it seems like he's trying to do too much and it's hurting the side.

Expect a big match from Balotelli versus Villa

Mario Balotelli took a little warming his first go-around in the Prem.  In fact, his first season at City was somewhat forgettable.  The first time he saw the pitch was a 3-0 loss to Arsenal at the Etihad.  He was a surprise sub, expected to be out due to injury, but he came on for the then 10-man City side in the 72nd minute for a fruitless effort to break his duck.  They were already down 2-0 and to make matters even more embarrassing, Nicklas Bendtner added a third.

His first full debut was a week later at the Molineaux.  City were more pretenders than contenders at the time and it showed.  They had yet to add some missing pieces, most notably Samir Nasri, and Balotelli actually started on the left behind Adebayor.  It was a dreadful performance for the Italian who had 5 shots, though none on-goal, was 15 of 21 passing (71.4%) and caused 17 turnovers. His only positives were 2 chances created and 2 successful tackles, as a red-faced City fell 2-1.

In his third match he finally scored, twice in fact, at the Hawthorns with both goals less than 7 minutes apart.  He then managed a straight red after 'kicking-out' while entangled with Youssuf Mulumbu.  He wouldn't score again until a hat-trick against Aston Villa at the end of December 2010, which included two pens.  He would end that season with only 6 goals, 0 assists, and 8 chances created in 17 appearances.

Flash forward to February 3, 2013.  Balotelli had made the switch to AC Milan and makes his debut at the San Siro versus Udinese.  He managed a brace, the first an ugly left-footed straggler in the box and the other a pen from a gratuitous call earned by an near-paraplegic Sharaaway.  He would go on to score in 8 of the final 10 matches played by Milan that season for a total of 12 goals in 13 matches.

So what should we expect?  A brace in his next match? Well, it's certainly probable considering it will be his first at Anfield and the opponent will be Villa, but he should be a factor in the least.  I fully expect he and Sturridge (if fit) to get at least one each.  This is the match that we need to send a message to the rest of the league and that message should be, 'We are contenders and we aren't going anywhere.'

All tomorrow's winners: Man United, Man City, Chelsea, Newcastle, Swansea, & West Ham

Predictions for tomorrow:
Burnley vs Man United
Betting on Burnley is a sucker bet as United's attack is far better than portrayed and Burnley has the worst defence in the league.  This one could get ugly and expect Van Persie to open his account for the season. Burnley 1, Man United 3

Man City vs Stoke
Begovic & company are good enough on defence to hold this to late, but I don't think they will.  City will probably get a goal around the middle of the first half and then add another late.  The Potters just don't have the ability to break down the City defense at the Etihad without a major mistake from their hosts. Look for Dzeko to get his first goal of the season. Man City 2, Stoke 0

Newcastle vs Crystal Palace
Three points will not get any easier for the Magpies.  They boast a decent attack and a respectable defence plus playing at home against Palace, who are dreadful on attack, should give them a significant edge.  If Dwight Gayle plays a significant amount, Palace will get at least a goal from him, but not sure it's worth the risk.  Newcastle 3, Crystal Palace 1

QPR vs Sunderland
Joey Barton and Rio Ferdinand have played exceptionally for their less than exceptional side, but if Remy is not available, this match has draw written all over it.  Sunderland is superior both on attack and in defence, but the confidings of Loftus Road will give QPR a proper boost. QPR 2, Sunderland 2

Swansea vs West Brom
This match could end up being the most exciting of the day.  Swansea is just poor enough on defence to allow a mediocre WBA attack to keep it exciting, but ultimately the superior Swan attack should prevail.  Wilfried Bony is itching for a goal. Swansea 3, WBA 2

West Ham vs Southampton
Another candidate for match of the day, Southampton should have enough to make it interesting against a somewhat decent West Ham defence.  In the end though, the Hammers strength of Allardyce's 'air ball' are the Saints' weakness.  West Ham 2, Southampton 0

Everton vs Chelsea
Despite being at Goodison, I don't think the Toffees will be able to compete with Chelsea, but if they try, the London club could humiliate them.  This is just a bad match-up for the blue side of Merseyside, Chelsea play a similar yet superior style of attack and are far better on defence.  I'll go conservative here though and say Everton 0, Chelsea 2.

Suso to score? Liverpool to win 3-2? What the betting markets are saying.

To win:
Man City   13/15  60.21%
Liverpool   10/3    20.64%
Draw          3/1     19.15%

Not enough money on City and too much of a pay off to expect a win/draw tomorrow, but the market isn't always right.

First to score:
Sergio Aguero      9/2    17.65%
Raheem Sterling   11/1   17.65%
No goal scorer     14/1   17.65%
Edin Dezeko         5/1    11.76%
Daniel Sturridge    7/1      8.82%

I actually like Jovetic here at 6/1, Y. Toure is good value at 7/1 but he played deep against Newcastle and think he may do the same here.  Lazar Markovic at 14/1 is a stretch, but if he makes the pitch I expect him to try his damnest to score on his debut, especially against the champs.

Other decent first to score bets: Silva 10/1, Nasri 9/1, Gerrard 14/1, & Skrtel 33/1.
Shots in the dark: Milner 22/1, Manquillo 66/1, Lazar Markovic 14/1, & Bacary Sagna 45/1
Sucker bets: Lambert 10/1 (that number is way too low) & Borini 9/1

Correct Final Score:
Liverpool 3-2   35/1   13.64%
Draw 1-1          8/1    11.36%
Draw 0-0         16/1    9.85%
Draw 2-2         14/1    9.09%
Man City 4-2   50/1    7.58%

The other favorites are City 2-1 (8/1) and City 1-0 (19/2). I am shocked that anyone thinks we will score 3 against City, their defence is just too good.  If we do win, it'll be 2-1 or 1-0, but I think we'll be lucky to get away with a draw.  The Liverpool fan in me says 'Pool 2-0, the pragmatic, intelligent football analyst says Citeh with an emphatical 3-0 win.  Sorry, but we are not on their level... yet.  If Markovic plays and shows he is the talent he's built up to be, then I will be more optimistic.

Draw No Bet:
Man City     2/5   77.78%
Liverpool  28/13  22.22%

That's not good.

Anytime Goalscorer:
Stevan Jovetic      2/1    27.78%
Daniel Sturridge  11/5   16.67%
Raheem Sterling   7/2    16.67%
David Silva          7/2      5.56%
Suso                    5/1      5.56%

Suso? Really? He was no where near the bench on match day one and now that Markovic and possibly Lallana are fit, he probably won't even be in the stands.  Jovetic is crazy at 2/1, which puts a first goalscorer bet in jeopardy as well.  Sturridge, Aguero (6/4),and Dzeko (6/4) would be my picks.  My long shots would be Coutinho (5/1), Kolarov (13/2), and Skrtel (14/1).

Man of the Match:
David Silva                12/1   56.25%
Jordan Henderson     18/1    31.25%
Sergio Aguero            7/1     12.50%

Yaya Toure (7/1), Raheem Sterling (9/1), and any goalkeeper (16/1) seem like decent bets.

Bets if you're feeling lucky:
Kolarov to score 2 or more goals 75/1
The Serbian left back is just the sort of player who has the big game against us.

Henderson to receive a card (5/1)
Henderson and Oliver have a 'history'.

Man City by a goal (11/4)
This is logically the most likely result, but logical people don't gamble much.

Dejan Lovren is the most efficient player in the EPL thus far

Individual Stats Leaders after Week One

Top ten most efficient in possession players:

S. Nasri	0.889
Y. Toure	0.868
T. Blackett	0.866
Andy King	0.852
M. Arteta	0.850
G. Barry	0.839
N. Bentaleb	0.828
V. Kompany	0.816
J. Olsson	0.813
G. Obertan	0.800

Leicester's Andy King is a surprising one here.  Gerrard came 11th with a ppe of 0.797.

Top ten most efficient defensive players:

Liam Moore	0.405
S. Dann	0.400
Curtis Davies	0.380
J. Chester	0.344
M. Jedinak	0.339
P. van Aanholt	0.339
B. Hangeland	0.333
Wes Morgan	0.319
P. Senderos	0.297
M. Kelly	0.295

Some solid players (Dann, Davies, Jedinak, & Hangeland) mixed in with some surprises who will probably play their way out of the this category.  Former LFC boy Kelly comes in tenth.

The ten most efficient overall:

D. Lovren	0.953
L. Koscielny	0.950
M. Arteta	0.925
P. Jagielka	0.922
M. Skrtel	0.919
V. Kompany	0.918
J. Chester	0.918
T. Blackett	0.918
J. Collins	0.911
W. Reid	0.911

I was shocked to see Lovren on top here.  Skrtel at fifth, not so much, with all the defensive numbers he racked up.

The top ten in effieciency over team average:

S. Dann	0.271
J. Chester	0.254
Ron Vlaar	0.253
R. Ferdinand	0.249
David Jones	0.238
J. Olsson	0.237
L. Cattermole	0.232
B. Hangeland	0.221
D. Lovren	0.208
J. Collins	0.207

This stat measures a players performance compared to his team's average, for instance, Scott Dann and Brede Hangeland's were the stars on a less than stellar Crystal Palace versus Arsenal.

- Joey Barton lead all players with 6 chances created.
- Mikel Arteta lead all players with 100 completed passes on 105 attempts (95.2%), Aaron Ramsey was the only other player to break the century mark in pass attempts with 106.
- Asmir Begovic was the only player to play a full match and complete all his pass attempts (23 for 23).
- West Ham's Cheikhou Kouyate lead all outfield players, who played 60 minutes or more, with a 96.9% pass completion rate.
- Mark Noble and Stewart Downing lead all players in successful crosses with 4 each, but Noble took just 6 attempts while Downing needed 10.
- Eden Hazard lead the league in take-ons with 9, Sterling and Cazorla tied for second with 5 apiece.
- Former Arsenal and current QPR left back, Armand Traore, was a very impressive 11 for 11 on aerial duels, making him tops in most won and best success percentage (100%).  Southampton's Graziano Pelle won the second most, going 10 for 23 while United's Chris Smalling and Erik Pieters of Stoke were 2nd in efficiency going 7 for 7 each.
- Jack Wilshere won the most fouls with 6.
- England and West Brom's Saido Berahino was the only player to score a penalty and/or a brace, but he also lead in times dispossessed at 7.  Raheem Sterling was runner-up with 6 times dispossessed and Daniel Sturridge tied with Aaron Ramsey at four times apiece.
- Adnan Januzaj lead all players with 6 direct turnovers, 2 more than any other player.
- Victor Wanyama and Mile Jedinak had the most successful tackles with 9 each.
- Sunderland's new left-back, Patrick van Aanholt is the league leader in interceptions with 8.
- Martin Skrtel's 19 clearances were enough to edge out Ryan Shawcross by one to lead all players.
- Marouane Chamakh committed 11 fouls, more than twice as many than any other player.

Mental Team Stats from Matchday One

Most efficient in possession

Man City	0.695
Arsenal	0.690
Man U	0.681
Everton	0.676
Chelsea	0.673
Liverpool	0.645

Keeping the ball away from City would be ideal.  And Jesus Navas didn't even play.

Defensive efficiency

C Palace	0.212
Sunderland	0.172
Hull City	0.150
Leicester	0.136
Swansea	0.130

Crystal Palace continues their dominating defensive form from last season, meanwhile City is 11th (0.102), Liverpool is 12th (0.100), and Man United are dead last (0.057).

Overall Efficiency

Man City	0.798
Arsenal	0.766
Chelsea	0.749
Everton	0.746
Liverpool	0.746

The most important of these three numbers taking into account all favorable actions of players (i.e. keeping possession and preventing the other side from scoring).  Arsenal is only ranked high here because of their passing, I expect them to fall rapidly as they play sides that focus more on possession-based defence instead of Palace's somewhat suicidal 'mighty fortress' stance.

Chance created value

Swansea	0.400
Crystal Palace	0.333
Chelsea	0.222
Liverpool	0.200
Everton	0.167

United is in a ton of trouble if they don't get some help on defence, Swansea has a decent attack but it's no where near the abilities of the top clubs.

Tidbits

- West Ham created the most chances of any side with 13, but failed to score.  They also connected on the most crosses with 11, while Tottenham was the only club that was unsuccessful on all their cross attempts, going 0 for 13.

- Arsenal completed the most passes with 640, 89 more than 2nd-most Chelsea, but they attempted the least amount of long balls in 34.

- QPR took the most shots (19) and tied for the most on goal (6) with Arsenal and Southampton, but failed to score.

- Liverpool lead all sides in take-ons with 15.

- Not surprising, even though Howard Webb retired, Man United 'won' the most fouls with 20.

- Only three clubs had multiple assists: Chelsea, Liverpool, and Swansea, all three sides won.

James Milner: A sad waste of talent and probably now a waste of funds

Following his break-out season at Aston Villa in 2009-10, James Milner seemed destined to do great things, then he signed with Man City.  Instead of developing into a top player for Villa and possibly becoming captain of the Brum club, he has settled for a secondary role at City where he finds himself starting on the bench in 48.9% (68 of 139) of matches he is available and of those, he didn't even make the pitch in 35.2% (24 of 68).

He has won two league titles, an FA Cup, and a League Cup at City though, and has shown what it means to be a true team player, even at the expense of his own evolution. It's admirable in some ways, but I doubt Milner envisioned being a squad player when he originally signed with Man City.  His last season with Villa, at the age of 24, he was finally coming into his own:

g	a	ch	npg90	gc90	cc90	ap90
7	12	69	0.11	0.54	1.96	0.34
pass%	lb%	tb%	cr%	sdrp90	sacc%	shot%
75.6	58.2	35.7	32.6	0.71	34.8	10.6
intp90	clrp90	drbp90	bs90	tp90	adw90	adw%
1.8	0.91	0.97	0.4	2.64	0.43	28.8
ccv	TTI90	gsp90	gap90	gop90	tgop	gopd
17.4	16.9	1.39	1.05	0.34	0.34	0

First, the bad, his 16.9 true turnover index per 90 minutes played is unimpressive to say the least.  He has improved since joining City, reaching a career best of 10.1 in 2011-12 and a 11.4 rate last season, that's on par with Henderson (9.7), Gerrard (10.9), Coutinho (11), and Sterling (12.1). Also, for a player who is characterized as 'strong' when it comes to aerial duels, his won per 90 of 0.43 at a 28.8% success rate is well below the league average of 1.46 at 50%.

His 12 assists that season was third best in the league and his chance created value of 17.4 was well above the league average of 9.2. While normally a goals on pitch difference of 0 is nothing to brag about, in his case it shows that he WAS the team.  Despite losing Gareth Barry the summer prior, Villa still improved their point totals and goal difference from the previous season, and the season after Milner joined City, the Villans plummeted to 9th place, a -24 goal difference, and accumulated 16 less points.

For Liverpool to consider a transfer for the 28-year-old, a what-have-you-done-lately approach is what matters.  Here are his stats from last season where he made only 12 starts, 19 sub-ins, for a total of 1375 minutes:

g	a	ch	npg90	gc90	cc90	ap90
1	3	29	0.07	0.26	1.9	0.2
pass%	bp%	lb%	tb%	cr%	sdrbp90	sdrb%	sacc%	shot%
84	46.4	60	66.6	19.1	1.18	43.9	24	4
intp90	clrp90	drbp90	bs90	tp90	tack%	adw90	adw%
0.65	1.44	1.11	0.06	2.03	50.9	1.05	35.6
ccv	TTI90	gsp90	gap90	gop90	tgop	gopd
10.3	11.4	2.22	1.24	0.98	1.71	-0.73

A regression to say the least, especially considering the quality of his teammates.  His passing has improved, as has his turnover rate, but not much else, and his goals on pitch difference is alarming.  For a midfielder known for playing solid defence, it certainly doesn't look like he's a much of a factor in preventing opponents from scoring.

Milner could have been a legend at Villa, but instead he rots away on the City bench with opportunities becoming more scarce as younger, more creative options surround him and his club have all the funds in the world to go after more if needs be.  The problem is he'll find himself in a similar situation if Liverpool acquire him.  His versatility does play into it a little since he can cover for Glen Johnson at RB, but he won't be much of an improvement.  It really comes down to how cheap City will let him go, anything more than £8m has to be a deal-breaker.