Lovren back in top ten overall, but is Per Mertesacker the most underrated footballer in England?

Players must have played at least 300 minutes to qualify.  Efficiency ratings are how likely a positive outcome will occur while that player is either in possession (attacking) or reacting to opposition possession (defensive).

He's baaaaaaaaaaccckkkk.  Yaya Toure retakes the top spot on attack, but only really because Nasri came up 24 minutes short.  Gerrard is Liverpool's highest rated player at 19th.

Attacking efficiency ranking

Y. Toure	0.829
C. Fàbregas	0.814
P. Mertesacker	0.806
M. Schneiderlin	0.792
E. Capoue	0.786
Juan Mata	0.783
F. Coloccini	0.783
S. Distin	0.774
M. Özil	0.770
G. Barry	0.768

Per Mertesacker has sky-rocketed to the top of the defence rankings following a few solid performances.  Lovren is 7th and rising.

Defensive efficiency ranking

P. Mertesacker	0.948
Curtis Davies	0.934
P. Jagielka	0.921
R. Ferdinand	0.920
S. Dann	0.916
S. Distin	0.914
D. Lovren	0.914
M. Demichelis	0.914
John Terry	0.912
F. Coloccini	0.904

Sir Per goes top as Lovren breaks into the top ten overall.

Overall efficiency ranking

P. Mertesacker	0.877
S. Distin	0.844
F. Coloccini	0.843
Y. Toure	0.833
J. O'Shea	0.832
E. Capoue	0.830
M. Schneiderlin	0.830
P. Jagielka	0.828
T. Blackett	0.817
D. Lovren	0.806

Super super Senderos is no longer in the top ten of players most valuable to their club efficiency-wise, but he has so much 'character'.  John O'Shea continues to be a head and shoulders above his Sunderland teammates.

Most valuable to their club efficiency-wise

J. O'Shea	0.197
D. Hammond	0.194
S. N'Zonzi	0.194
R. Ferdinand	0.180
F. Coloccini	0.178
David Jones	0.174
Andy King	0.172
Dean Marney	0.163
P. Mertesacker	0.159
M. Schneiderlin	0.153

Leaders, notes, and squibs:

- Chucky 'Disco Biscuits' Fabregas leads the league in both assists (6) and chances created (18)

- Aaron Ramsey is top with 558 touches, the second most is Capoue with 501

- Eden Hazard has 31 successful dribbles, more than twice as many as any other player, Lamela is second with 14, while Raheem Sterling is 3rd with 13

- Mile Jedinak leads the league with 30 tackles, while the irrepressible Morgan Schniederlin is second with 23

- Curtis Davies leads all players with 62 clearances

Gerrard breaks into top ten of most efficient EPL players, Lovren falls and Yaya takes top

Top attacking efficient players in the Premiership 
(must have played at least 120 minutes thus far)

	ape
Y. Toure	0.878
S. Nasri	0.859
D. Fletcher	0.825
Cesc Fàbregas	0.822
F. Coloccini	0.817
N. Bentaleb	0.805
Eden Hazard	0.804
S. Gerrard	0.797
E. Adebayor	0.795
T. Blackett	0.795

Fletcher is a bit shocking, but he has posted a 87.3% pass rate and has only averaged 7 caused possession changes a match.  Blackett has managed an even better successful passing percentage at 88.4%.

If all players are included, despite the amount of minutes played, Sergio Aguero is king with a ridiculous 0.938 attacking efficiency.  That's what happens when you score 2 goals, post a 3/4 shot accuracy and are 10/10 on passing in 29 total minutes on the pitch.  Only a matter of time before they play the Argentine, Jovetic, and Dzeko up front at the same time and have the minnows of the Prem soiling their shorts.

Leicester's Andy King is a good example of 'levelling off''.  The Welsh midfielder dropped 22 places in rankings after facing Chelsea, the 2nd most efficient side in the EPL.  The Foxes next host Arsenal, which could go either way for King as he should have the amount of touches to show if he's as good as he was against Everton.

Top defensive efficient players
(must have played at least 120 minutes thus far)

	dpe
C. Chambers	0.914
R. Ferdinand	0.914
M. Skrtel	0.905
D. Lovren	0.896
F. Coloccini	0.894
Y. Toure	0.884
P. Jagielka	0.878
Fernando	0.877
V. Kompany	0.871
T. Blackett	0.865

Chambers continues to impress, but I did change up the formula to be more possession-friendly, meaning the 19-year-old right back benefits greatly from playing for Arsene Wenger.  That shouldn't help Rio though as QPR is the fifth-worst possession side.  Man United should have let him stayed another season.  Skrtel leap frogs Lovren and having both centre backs in the top for says a lot about Liverpool's somewhat deficient defence. Save Gerrard, only Jordan Henderson is  ranked in the top 75 at 74.

Top overall efficient players

(must have played at least 120 minutes thus far)

	ope
Y. Toure	0.881
F. Coloccini	0.856
C. Chambers	0.840
S. Nasri	0.835
T. Blackett	0.830
D. Fletcher	0.829
Fernando	0.825
G. Barry	0.821
S. Gerrard	0.820
N. Bentaleb	0.817

No Chelsea players? Fabregas is closest at 18th, but they are tied with City with a league best 8 players in the top 100.  It is a team sport after all.  Lovren dropped to 13th, one ahead of Skrtel.

Suso to score? Liverpool to win 3-2? What the betting markets are saying.

To win:
Man City   13/15  60.21%
Liverpool   10/3    20.64%
Draw          3/1     19.15%

Not enough money on City and too much of a pay off to expect a win/draw tomorrow, but the market isn't always right.

First to score:
Sergio Aguero      9/2    17.65%
Raheem Sterling   11/1   17.65%
No goal scorer     14/1   17.65%
Edin Dezeko         5/1    11.76%
Daniel Sturridge    7/1      8.82%

I actually like Jovetic here at 6/1, Y. Toure is good value at 7/1 but he played deep against Newcastle and think he may do the same here.  Lazar Markovic at 14/1 is a stretch, but if he makes the pitch I expect him to try his damnest to score on his debut, especially against the champs.

Other decent first to score bets: Silva 10/1, Nasri 9/1, Gerrard 14/1, & Skrtel 33/1.
Shots in the dark: Milner 22/1, Manquillo 66/1, Lazar Markovic 14/1, & Bacary Sagna 45/1
Sucker bets: Lambert 10/1 (that number is way too low) & Borini 9/1

Correct Final Score:
Liverpool 3-2   35/1   13.64%
Draw 1-1          8/1    11.36%
Draw 0-0         16/1    9.85%
Draw 2-2         14/1    9.09%
Man City 4-2   50/1    7.58%

The other favorites are City 2-1 (8/1) and City 1-0 (19/2). I am shocked that anyone thinks we will score 3 against City, their defence is just too good.  If we do win, it'll be 2-1 or 1-0, but I think we'll be lucky to get away with a draw.  The Liverpool fan in me says 'Pool 2-0, the pragmatic, intelligent football analyst says Citeh with an emphatical 3-0 win.  Sorry, but we are not on their level... yet.  If Markovic plays and shows he is the talent he's built up to be, then I will be more optimistic.

Draw No Bet:
Man City     2/5   77.78%
Liverpool  28/13  22.22%

That's not good.

Anytime Goalscorer:
Stevan Jovetic      2/1    27.78%
Daniel Sturridge  11/5   16.67%
Raheem Sterling   7/2    16.67%
David Silva          7/2      5.56%
Suso                    5/1      5.56%

Suso? Really? He was no where near the bench on match day one and now that Markovic and possibly Lallana are fit, he probably won't even be in the stands.  Jovetic is crazy at 2/1, which puts a first goalscorer bet in jeopardy as well.  Sturridge, Aguero (6/4),and Dzeko (6/4) would be my picks.  My long shots would be Coutinho (5/1), Kolarov (13/2), and Skrtel (14/1).

Man of the Match:
David Silva                12/1   56.25%
Jordan Henderson     18/1    31.25%
Sergio Aguero            7/1     12.50%

Yaya Toure (7/1), Raheem Sterling (9/1), and any goalkeeper (16/1) seem like decent bets.

Bets if you're feeling lucky:
Kolarov to score 2 or more goals 75/1
The Serbian left back is just the sort of player who has the big game against us.

Henderson to receive a card (5/1)
Henderson and Oliver have a 'history'.

Man City by a goal (11/4)
This is logically the most likely result, but logical people don't gamble much.

Dejan Lovren is the most efficient player in the EPL thus far

Individual Stats Leaders after Week One

Top ten most efficient in possession players:

S. Nasri	0.889
Y. Toure	0.868
T. Blackett	0.866
Andy King	0.852
M. Arteta	0.850
G. Barry	0.839
N. Bentaleb	0.828
V. Kompany	0.816
J. Olsson	0.813
G. Obertan	0.800

Leicester's Andy King is a surprising one here.  Gerrard came 11th with a ppe of 0.797.

Top ten most efficient defensive players:

Liam Moore	0.405
S. Dann	0.400
Curtis Davies	0.380
J. Chester	0.344
M. Jedinak	0.339
P. van Aanholt	0.339
B. Hangeland	0.333
Wes Morgan	0.319
P. Senderos	0.297
M. Kelly	0.295

Some solid players (Dann, Davies, Jedinak, & Hangeland) mixed in with some surprises who will probably play their way out of the this category.  Former LFC boy Kelly comes in tenth.

The ten most efficient overall:

D. Lovren	0.953
L. Koscielny	0.950
M. Arteta	0.925
P. Jagielka	0.922
M. Skrtel	0.919
V. Kompany	0.918
J. Chester	0.918
T. Blackett	0.918
J. Collins	0.911
W. Reid	0.911

I was shocked to see Lovren on top here.  Skrtel at fifth, not so much, with all the defensive numbers he racked up.

The top ten in effieciency over team average:

S. Dann	0.271
J. Chester	0.254
Ron Vlaar	0.253
R. Ferdinand	0.249
David Jones	0.238
J. Olsson	0.237
L. Cattermole	0.232
B. Hangeland	0.221
D. Lovren	0.208
J. Collins	0.207

This stat measures a players performance compared to his team's average, for instance, Scott Dann and Brede Hangeland's were the stars on a less than stellar Crystal Palace versus Arsenal.

- Joey Barton lead all players with 6 chances created.
- Mikel Arteta lead all players with 100 completed passes on 105 attempts (95.2%), Aaron Ramsey was the only other player to break the century mark in pass attempts with 106.
- Asmir Begovic was the only player to play a full match and complete all his pass attempts (23 for 23).
- West Ham's Cheikhou Kouyate lead all outfield players, who played 60 minutes or more, with a 96.9% pass completion rate.
- Mark Noble and Stewart Downing lead all players in successful crosses with 4 each, but Noble took just 6 attempts while Downing needed 10.
- Eden Hazard lead the league in take-ons with 9, Sterling and Cazorla tied for second with 5 apiece.
- Former Arsenal and current QPR left back, Armand Traore, was a very impressive 11 for 11 on aerial duels, making him tops in most won and best success percentage (100%).  Southampton's Graziano Pelle won the second most, going 10 for 23 while United's Chris Smalling and Erik Pieters of Stoke were 2nd in efficiency going 7 for 7 each.
- Jack Wilshere won the most fouls with 6.
- England and West Brom's Saido Berahino was the only player to score a penalty and/or a brace, but he also lead in times dispossessed at 7.  Raheem Sterling was runner-up with 6 times dispossessed and Daniel Sturridge tied with Aaron Ramsey at four times apiece.
- Adnan Januzaj lead all players with 6 direct turnovers, 2 more than any other player.
- Victor Wanyama and Mile Jedinak had the most successful tackles with 9 each.
- Sunderland's new left-back, Patrick van Aanholt is the league leader in interceptions with 8.
- Martin Skrtel's 19 clearances were enough to edge out Ryan Shawcross by one to lead all players.
- Marouane Chamakh committed 11 fouls, more than twice as many than any other player.

What the betting markets say: Liverpool vs Southampton

Percentage of bets placed:
Liverpool to win -240 71.17%
Draw +400 12.3%
Southampton to win +800 16.53%

First goalscorer:
Daniel Sturridge +333 52.99%
Dejan Lovren +2500 8.21%
Raheem Sterling +650 5.97%
Steven Gerrard +700 5.22%
Rickie Lambert +500 3.73%
Others 23.88%

Correct score:
Liverpool 2-0 +750 13.14%
Liverpool 2-1 +850 10.95%
Liverpool 4-0 +2000 7.3%
Liverpool 3-0 +1000 6.57%
Liverpool 3-2 +3000 6.57%
Other 55.47%

A couple of interesting surprises here, Southampton 1-0 not a popular choice and Liverpool 3-0 and 3-2 about even on bets placed.

Anytime goalscorer:
Sturridge -120 40.38%
Sterling +187 13.46%
Gerrard +260 11.54%
Lambert +137 9.62%
Coutinho +250 7.69%
Other 17.31%

Coutinho looks like a great bet here.

Man of the Match:
Sterling +600 61.11%
Coutinho +750 33.33%
Henderson +1200 2.78%
Lambert +1200 2.78%

No matter how well they play, Sterling and Henderson rarely get MotM honors.  Sturridge is the favorite at +500 though few seem to fancy him.  Lambert? Really? Wishful.

Interesting bets:
Sturridge hat-trick +2000
Sturridge score + Liverpool win +130
Liverpool to win by 1 +300

Bad bet:
Oussama Assaidi first goalscorer +700
The Moroccan  might have to buy his own ticket to the match if he's around.  Boylesports is the only site giving odds and will happily take your coin if you're feeling really, really, really lucky.

Crazy but why not? bet:
Kolo Toure first goalscorer +4000, to score +1400
It's surprising that the pay off for Toure as first goalscorer is so much higher than Assaidi considering the centre back does have a much better of chance of making the pitch, he's at least made the bench.

Liverpool 2, Man City 2: A 'Sterling' performance

It is only the preseason, but that second half was some entertaining football.  I had to go and praise Coates in the first half, only to have him let me down in the second.  The Uruguayan defender couldn't really do much more save 'take out' Jovetic on the first goal and risk penalty.  Had Gerrard not deflected the ball into the Montenegrin's grasp, Mignolet would have probably scooped up the attempt.  It did slightly expose what became very apparent on the second goal, Coates needs to get stronger.  If he allows forwards to out-muscle him like the Man City forward did on his second score, he'll never make it in the Premiership.

As for the rest of the side, Sterling was the absolute game-changer.  If there ever was a sign of his world class potential, it was his very apparent ability to make his teammates look so much better, especially Henderson, who was having a rubbish bin match before our Raheem came on.  Not to take anything away from Henderson's brilliant finish, but it was Sterling's pass to Sturridge that set up the goal.  Beginning with an excellent set-up for Jack Robinson, which should have produced a better attempt on goal, Sterling provided chance after chance, terrorizing Man City down the left side of the pitch.

Sterling allowed a change in style of play, from a long-ball, centralized approach in the first half, to a possession-based, bring the ball up the flanks in the second.  Well, I should say bring it up the left flank that is, hardly anybody was on the right save Glen Johnson, who did himself no favors when it comes to his critics.  Even when he made a positive contribution, which was rare in itself, he would sure enough mangle it.

Lucas and Can were bright spots as well.  Lucas, in his cameo appearance, neutralized Touré,  provided the brilliant assist to Sterling on the equalizer, and scored the winning penalty.  He provided a sense of 'calm' the team needed to get back into the match.  Can was simply a beast, roaming around central midfield causing havoc for City and making smart possession-based passes.  His style of play is very similar to the box-to-box midfielder prototype that is Yaya Touré, if he can reach those heights, we'll have many years of success to come.

By the way, when did Micah Richards become such a school girl princess?  Before the match, I would have gladly had him come to Liverpool, but his wincing and whining, particularly after being man-handled by Can, has provided second thoughts.  He did more complaining than positive contributing, which is something we don't need.

Also what was going on with the pitch?  I realize it was played on a baseball field, but had this match been scheduled for the Prem or European football, it would have probably been abandoned due to horrendous conditions.  I don't know if the grass was too long or just the wrong kind, but especially in the first half, proper ball movement took an extra effort, which could have lead to a muscle strain or hamstring pull.  The stability in the 'infield' area was also questionable with a few players slipping, maybe that's why Liverpool avoided that side of the pitch in the second half.

Ultimately, this was a meaningless preseason match, despite what Guinness and Fox wants us to believe.  If Sterling can perform this well through-out the season, we'll be contenders until the end.  If Coates can play like he did in the first half, we have another option at centre back.  One thing I'm certain of, as they have both shown it the last two seasons, Henderson and Allen can play much better than they did, but Lambert and Sturridge will have to produce goals for us to have a chance at the title.

Coates, Coates, the killer... Liverpool vs Man City: First half thoughts

First and foremost, the pitch is a joke.  It looks dodgy and the way the ball is moving and players are sliding, especially in the baseball 'infield area', it doesn't look very fun to play on.  Also, is it just me or does the pitch seem small, which is why seemingly 'normal' cross field passes are going out of bounds with frequency.  Now on to our players' performances.

Sebastián Coates is putting on a pre-season tour that may just make it all right to sell Agger to Barcelona, and he's appeared to save his best for this match so far.  He's dispossessed Dzeko and Jovetic with embarrassing ease and his shut-down coverage in the box along with some tricky clearances have all but neutralized any real City chances.  For the first time, at least in a long time, he's shown the competency and ability to wear the Liverpool shirt.

No one else has been that outstanding, but Coutinho has made some brilliant runs.  Had he found Sturridge on that run where he took on three City players with his brilliant Brazilian wizardry, world class sweat would have been oozing from his veins.  A far reached foot by a City defender saved that from possibly being the match highlight.

Toure and Kelly have played well also, though they have had their 'frantic' moments.  Every time Kolo clears the ball, I cringe a little, he just seems so unsure of what he's doing out there.  Kelly has had his hands full with Kolarev and though I wouldn't say he's winning the battle, he's certainly holding his own.

Gerrard has been solid, two plays come to mind.  First, we he did that immediate through-ball on a rebound supposedly to Sturridge, he had that look on his face as if he thought, 'Man, Torres or Suarez would have saw that coming.' Work with him, Stevie, he's all we got right now.  Also that ankle-breaking direction-changing dribble in the middle of his own third on Kolarev was simply brilliant, Allen Iverson would be proud.

As for the poor performances, Allen has been bottom, he seems so out-of-place and may be having his worst passing match ever, Hendo hasn't been much better.  Every time either of them try to .make something happen' they create a turnover.  Lambert has been okay, at best, but he needs to be better at creating chances for others and exert less energy doing so.  Would not be surprise to see him on the bench in the second half.  Speaking of which...

Coutinho, Sterling, & Agger all had higher gopds than Suarez last year

The winner of 'goals on pitch difference' for Liverpool last season was Coutinho with Sterling and Agger coming up 2nd and 3rd respectively.  Similar to +/- that is used in basketball, gopd measures the amount of goals a team scored against amount allowed while that player is on the pitch.  Here are the results for relevant LFC players from last season:

	mins	pp90	ga	gap90	gs	gsp90	diff
Coutinho	2323	25.8	37	1.43	78	3.02	1.59
Sterling	2220	24.7	31	1.26	69	2.80	1.54
Agger	1421	15.8	18	1.14	42	2.66	1.52
Suarez	2962	32.9	47	1.43	96	2.92	1.49
Sturridge	2267	25.2	31	1.23	68	2.70	1.47
Johnson	2515	27.9	38	1.36	79	2.83	1.47
Henderson	3129	34.8	42	1.21	93	2.67	1.47
Allen	1443	16.0	21	1.31	44	2.75	1.44
Skrtel	3221	35.8	50	1.40	99	2.77	1.37
Gerrard	2895	32.2	44	1.37	86	2.67	1.30
Flanagan	1890	21.0	38	1.81	63	3.00	1.19
Lucas	1896	21.1	27	1.28	49	2.32	1.04
Toure	1443	16.0	20	1.25	36	2.25	1.00
Sakho	1478	16.4	25	1.52	38	2.32	0.79

The gopd average for Liverpool was 1.33 per match, which does not bode well for Gerrard and anyone else below him on the table.  Flanagan is particularly dreadful being his 3 goal scored per 90 is second highest, but his 1.81 goals allowed is worst.  I'm at a loss for words when it comes to Sakho, maybe he just isn't that good, and if you would have asked me last week if selling Lucas was a good idea, I would have said absolutely not, but now I'm beginning to wonder if he's no longer of much value.

I'm not surprised by any of the players in the top five except for maybe Agger, who we should truly not sell, but Johnson at sixth is perplexing.  I figured he'd be much worse.  Maybe we should hold on to him for a little bit longer.

By the way, of all players who played at least 1000 league minutes last season, Aly Cissokho had the highest goal scored per 90 at 3.05 and highest gopd at 1.73. Go figure.

Gerrard & Sturridge are more important than Suarez

Again and again I'm trying to convince myself that the loss of Suarez won't be that great, well, this may be the straw that breaks the camel's back.  I went through each match last year and broke down goal importance according to whether a point was salvaged or gained (crucial goal) or gave us an advantage (important goal).  I did the same for assists as well.  Then I applied a points system: 3 points for crucial goal or assist and 1 point for important goal or assist.  Here are the results:

	crucial goal	imp goal	crucial asst	imp assist	value
Gerrard	5	4	4	4	35
Sturridge	7	6	1	2	32
Suarez	0	11	1	4	18
Coutinho	2	1	0	2	9
Agger	1	1	1	1	8
Henderson	1	0	0	3	6
Enrique	0	0	1	1	4
Sterling	0	2	0	2	4
Aspas	0	0	1	0	3
Skrtel	0	3	0	0	3
Toure	0	0	0	1	1
Sakho	0	1	0	0	1
Johnson	0	0	0	1	1
Allen	0	1	0	0	1

Not a single goal and only one assist from Suarez was 'crucial' to our title chase last year.  He did score 11 'important' goals though, unfortunately that also means he essentially scored 20 'meaningless' goals or goals that wouldn't have mattered had he scored them or not.

We will be fine if Suarez leaves as long as we improve defensively.  Yes, he's fun to watch and I wish he would play the rest of his days in a Liverpool shirt, but in the end, we go on.