Fantasy Picks for Matchday 2: Tottenham, Southampton, Chelsea, Swansea, & Hull

Note: I don't play fantasy football myself, but I was asked who I would pick this week and for the next month or so (plus a few 'alternates').  So, using my vast vault of useless data, here's my picks:

Keeper
This week: Lloris (Tottenham)
Alternate: McGregor (Hull), Courtois (Chelsea)

Long term: Forster (Southampton), McGregor (Hull), Mannone (Sunderland), Krul (Newcastle)

Defenders
This week: Clyne (Southampton), Davies (Hull), Kelly (CP), Rose (Tottenham)
Alternates: Chester (Hull), Vlaar (Aston Villa), Kaboul (Tottenham), Ivanovic (Chelsea)

Long term: Clyne (Southampton), Coloccini (Newcastle), A. Williams (Swansea), Wilson (Stoke), Davies (Hull), Chester (Hull), Kelly (CP), Ward (CP), Shawcross (Sunderland), Cahill (Che)

Midfielders
This week: Hazard (Che), Shelvey (Swansea), Bentaleb (Tottenham), Schneiderlin (Southampton)
Alternates: Ince (Hull), Fabregas (Che), Ward-Prose, Tadic (Southampton), Mata (Man U)

Long term: All listed Southampton midfielders above plus S. Davis, Wanyama, & Ramirez if you are feeling extra lucky, Ince (Hull), Fabregas, Schurrle, Oscar (Che), Cabella (Newcastle), Mata, Fletcher, Young (Man U)

Forwards
This week: Adebayor (Tottenham), Costa (Chelsea)
Alternates: Bony (Swansea), Long (Southampton), Weimann (Aston Villa)

Long Term: Rooney (Man U), Jelavic (Hull), Gouffran (Newcastle), Berahino (WBA)

That's all I got, sorry a bit short on the strikers, but it what it is.

LFC 2, Southampton 1: Great? No. Good? Not really. Lucky? Probably.

When I wrote my brief analysis yesterday on Man U's loss to Swansea at Old Trafford... that'll never get old... I mentioned that they dominated possession, had outstanding passing percentages, took three times as many shots, and won two-thirds of their aerial duels, which is somewhat similar to Liverpool's performance today save shots.  The Reds were less dominate on possession though at only 56% compared to Mangoloid U's 60%.  Liverpool completed 86% of their passes, which goes without saying is excellent, and won 62% of aerial battles.  The big difference was shots.

Both Southampton and LFC took 12 shots, but the south coast side had 6 on target while Liverpool had one less.  If we allow 6 shots on target every match, we will be very fortunate to make the top 7, never mind top four or competing for the league.  Mignolet put in an outstanding performance today making some terrific saves.  With Reina gone, I just hope there aren't any repercussions from him slamming into the post on that save of Ward-Prowse's forever lobbing attempt on goal.  Brad Jones is capable, but I doubt he would have put in an equal performance.

Let's get the negative out of the way first so we can look into the magic mirror, hold hands, and color unicorns.  Johnson was a waste of space and honestly we would have done better with ten men.  He turned over the ball nearly half the times he touched it, his two shots had a better chance of hitting the hot dog man than finding the back of the net, and he passed the ball backward like he was challenging time travel.  Maybe he was trying to go back to three years ago when he wasn't as dreadful. Moreno should be ready to go next match, but if not, where's Enrique?

Speaking of fecal matter, Lucas and Allen were particularly foul, especially as the match wore on.  It was as if Lucas had just put on Allen's kit and continued his downward spiral.  The Brazilian hasn't played that poorly in a couple of seasons, maybe it was just part of his 'sell me to Napoli so I can be with me Uncle Benitez' plan.  I guess Rodgers felt Can wasn't ready to make his EPL debut, I don't see how he could do any worse than those two though.  Turnovers, indecisiveness on the ball, passing to Southampton players on crucial possessions... those aren't positive attributes for players who are supposed to be 'holding midfielders'.

Also, what happened to our defence? What happened to our field general and drill sergeant, Lovren?  It's not as if he hasn't played in the Premier League before.  Maybe he just felt sentimental towards his old club, hopefully that was the case, hopefully it's not a disease that defenders get now when they put on the LFC kit, and hopefully it has nothing to do with Rodgers' tactics.  If it's the latter, we are screwed, let'em rage, BR.  The bottom line is, our defence has to communicate better, at times they looked like a bunch of mud-wrestling Helen Kellers out there.

Finally, Coutinho had a poor match.  Every time he gained possession, he was corralled by the Saints defence and for the most part, failed to dribble or pass his way out of it.  He'd better get used to it though, he's got a target as big as Hiroshima on his back and if pressuring him takes him out of the equation, it's going to be awfully easy for opposing defences to make him a non-factor.  If there's one thing that he needs to understand is that it's okay for him to pass backward once in a while, especially when he has two or three defenders around him.  His passing today clearly suffered from trying to force things, his 76% completion rate was worst among Liverpool outfield players.

Our best players were Sterling and Gerrard with Henderson coming in third, though the latter's passing requires improvement.  Sterling should probably get man of the match just on being responsible for both goals, but Gerrard, as always, played his heart out with reckless abandon.  Our captain was all over the place defensively, and thankfully so since Lovren and Skrtel had a few momentary lapses of concentration, but the most impressive part of Gerrard's performance was his passing.  He completed 89% overall and was 10 of 13 on long passes, even though most were wasted.  Sturridge looked a little bit shaky there in the beginning and never really found his form, which is scary, but he'll come around.

Speaking of Sturridge, he once again came through with the match-winning goal.  The first match of the season and he already has a 'crucial' goal, something he did seven times last season.  And since we are on the subject, I really wish pundits and commentators would get a clue, Suarez was not as valuable as he seemed.  Yes, he scored goals, but most were meaningless, he scored exactly ZERO goals that broke a scoring draw, won, or drew a match for Liverpool last season.  Shut your ignorant pie holes, please.

Southampton deserves some credit as they were quite impressive.  They looked far from a relegation contending side, but will be a mid-table club, possibly finishing as high as seventh.  Tadić and Ward-Prowse were brilliant and I wrote prior to the match, if Clyne gets involved on attack, we could be in trouble.  Well, guess what? He did and he equalized a vivid passing display by the Saints.  In the end, Liverpool were lucky to get all three points, pulling this one off by the skin of their teeth.  We've got to improve defensively though because a master passer like Fabregas, Silva, or Ozil will tear us to pieces if we don't.

Six things learnt from LFC 2, Southampton 1

1 - Sterling can put on a Suarez-esque performance and make it meant something.  Our pint-sized powerhouse notched home the opening goal on a scintillating pass from Hendo and then got the game-winning assist on a header on to our poacher extraordinaire, the Studge.  Of all the goals and assists Suarez had last year, 31 and 12 just in case you forgot, only one assist gave Liverpool 3 points.  It took Sterling just one match to equal that this season.

2 - Sterling can put on a Suarez-esque performance, but that's not always a good thing.  His true turnover index was 17, which is about what his former teammate averaged per 90 minutes last season, but nobody cares as long as you produce goals.  The thing is Sterling is a better passer and he's 19.

3 - Speaking of cloaking a poor overall performance with a flash of brilliance, Jordan Henderson completed just 78% of his passes today (He's a career 83% passer and posted a career best 87.1% last season), was 0 for 2 on crosses, 2 of 6 on long balls, had 2 shots though none on-target, and was dispossessed 3 times.  That assist though and his tackling were enough to keep him off the shortlist for the Golden Rubbish Bin.

4 - Gerrard hasn't lost a step.  Our captain had a tackle, an interception, two clearances, created a chance, completed 89% of his passing, and was successful on 10 of 13 long balls.  Without him playing back, we would have probably allowed more goals.  Once again he proved his commitment and sacrifice to his club are unparalleled.

5 - Mignolet can be boss.  Let's hope he wants to be for 37 more league matches.  The save on Ward-Prowse's free kick and the tip that sent Pelle's shot off the post were simply class.  He did surprisingly well on set-pieces and corners as well, even though he seemed shaky at times.

6 - Manquillo is a bad ass.  His first Prem match and he commanded the right side of pitch like a ten year veteran.  He recorded 6 tackles, 5 clearances, 4 interceptions, a blocked shot, and completed 86% of his passes.

The return of Robo-Skrtel

Liverpool 2, Southampton 1: The match in stats
- Martin Skrtel had 20 clearances.  He led Liverpool and the league last season with 11.5 per 90 minutes and is well on his way to doing so again this season.  Lovren was second with 11 and Manquillo was third with 5.

- Skrtel also led the side in touches with 111, Manquillo was second with 109, and Lovren third with 86.

- Skrtel won the most aerial duels as well with 7 while Lovren was second with 6.

- Lovren led all players with an absolutely ridiculous passing rate of 96%, Skrtel was 2nd at 91%, and Gerrard third at 89%.

- Manquillo led the side with 6 tackles, Jordan Henderson was 2nd with 3.

- Gerrard completed 10 of 13 of long balls.  He lead all outfield Prem players last year with 257.

- Daniel Sturridge attempted 20 passes the entire match, Joe Allen attempted that many in 31 minutes.  Sturridge, a career 80% passer, completed 17 while Allen, a career 90% passer, completed 16.

- Raheem Sterling dribbled past 5 opponents, but was dispossessed 6 times.

-Rickie Lambert had more tackles, one, than Glen Johnson and Lucas Leiva combined.

- Every starter had at least one interception except Sturridge.  Lovren and Manquillo led the team with 4 a piece.

- No Liverpool player committed more than a single foul.  Thank you, Clattenburger.

- One of Glenn Johnson's shots landed in a rubbish bin, the other knocked an ice cream cone out of a six-year-old girl's hand.

- Lucas had a shot on target, created a chance, and dribbled past an opponent.  Either he passed a few bills to the statistician before the match or it's his Uncle Joenihno recording the numbers.

- The only other player to do as Lucas did above was Raheem Sterling, he had 3 shots on target and 2 key passes though.

Liverpool 1, Southampton 0: thoughts at the break

I don't think Koeman is 'parking the bus', but playing three defensive-minded midfielders and Southampton's overall 'conservative' approach is awfully close.  The goal, a brilliant pass by Hendo followed by a non-chalant tap through by Sterling, failed to open things up, the Saints remained disciplined, have not panicked, and have created chances to equalize.  Fortunately for Liverpool, though he has been shaky, Mignolet has come through on those occasions.

If this is the last chance for Lucas and Glen Johnson to prove their value to Rodgers, they've failed so far, Johnson especially.  The right back, playing left back, has gifted possession at least a third of the time he touches the ball.  I used to defend him, but he's clearly well past it.  I don't think he could get a match for, well, Southampton.  Unfortunately he's not doing much good for his value, it'll probably take a million pounds and a pizza for anyone to take him now.  Lucas has been much less dreadful, but at the same time, utterly useless.  Gerrard seems to be playing holding/defensive midfielder, so I don't see the point in having the Brazilian out there, Can offers much more going forward.

Speaking of poor performances, Coutinho is not in the midst of his best match by an ostrich mile.  In his defense though, he's been circled like sharks on a bloodied sea lion.  He's got to find some space out there if he's to be a factor in the second half.

Practically everyone else has played well, some great passing especially from Gerrard.  Manquillo has been all over the place and that card was complete rubbish.  If that was a card-worthy foul, half the Southampton side should be booked already, Bertrand especially.  And since we are talking about fouls, Sturridge should have gotten a free kick at the top of the box when Yoshida deliberately left his foot out to trip him.  That was just ridiculous.  Anyhow, second half about to start...

What the betting markets say: Liverpool vs Southampton

Percentage of bets placed:
Liverpool to win -240 71.17%
Draw +400 12.3%
Southampton to win +800 16.53%

First goalscorer:
Daniel Sturridge +333 52.99%
Dejan Lovren +2500 8.21%
Raheem Sterling +650 5.97%
Steven Gerrard +700 5.22%
Rickie Lambert +500 3.73%
Others 23.88%

Correct score:
Liverpool 2-0 +750 13.14%
Liverpool 2-1 +850 10.95%
Liverpool 4-0 +2000 7.3%
Liverpool 3-0 +1000 6.57%
Liverpool 3-2 +3000 6.57%
Other 55.47%

A couple of interesting surprises here, Southampton 1-0 not a popular choice and Liverpool 3-0 and 3-2 about even on bets placed.

Anytime goalscorer:
Sturridge -120 40.38%
Sterling +187 13.46%
Gerrard +260 11.54%
Lambert +137 9.62%
Coutinho +250 7.69%
Other 17.31%

Coutinho looks like a great bet here.

Man of the Match:
Sterling +600 61.11%
Coutinho +750 33.33%
Henderson +1200 2.78%
Lambert +1200 2.78%

No matter how well they play, Sterling and Henderson rarely get MotM honors.  Sturridge is the favorite at +500 though few seem to fancy him.  Lambert? Really? Wishful.

Interesting bets:
Sturridge hat-trick +2000
Sturridge score + Liverpool win +130
Liverpool to win by 1 +300

Bad bet:
Oussama Assaidi first goalscorer +700
The Moroccan  might have to buy his own ticket to the match if he's around.  Boylesports is the only site giving odds and will happily take your coin if you're feeling really, really, really lucky.

Crazy but why not? bet:
Kolo Toure first goalscorer +4000, to score +1400
It's surprising that the pay off for Toure as first goalscorer is so much higher than Assaidi considering the centre back does have a much better of chance of making the pitch, he's at least made the bench.

The most dangerous player for Southampton at Anfield

Nathaniel Clyne gets no respect.  The 23-year-old right back put up some solid attacking numbers last season and was more of a catalyst in the opponent's third than Luke Shaw or any other Saints defender.  If he is allowed to be a factor tomorrow, it will increase Southampton's chances of scoring and even winning exponentially.  They will probably push forward in limited numbers as not to suffer an 'easy' goal on the counter and an extra player to stretch the Liverpool defence would be very beneficial in that regard.

Here is the offensive output for Clyne last season:

ap90	cc90	cc90	ccv	pass%	bp%	lb90	lb%	tti90	gopd
0.19	0.19	0.58	0.143	0.816	0.41	1.26	0.542	10.73	0.42

The most impressive stat is his goals on pitch difference.  Lovren, Shaw, and especially Chambers paled in comparison.  Our new centre back posted an acceptable -0.05, Shaw was a little bit better with a 0.03, but Chambers was horrendous with a -0.59, a full goal difference than Clyne.  Did Arsenal buy the wrong right back?  I think so.

Despite the endless jokes the south coast club has endured this summer, Southampton is not without quality.  Even with Jay Rodriguez out due to injury, they will be a formidable attacking force.  The key will be how well their midfield interacts.  Most likely, Morgan Schniederlin (or Jack Cork) and Victor Wanyama will start as defensive midfielders with Gaston Ramirez, Dušan Tadić, Steven Davis, and James-Ward Prowse in front of them.  Not to be too cliché, but the Saints will look to hold on to the ball as long as possible, forcing Liverpool to come at them and hoping the Merseysiders will make a mistake.

Unfortunately for them, it will leave new boy Graziano Pellè alone at the top.  I don't expect much from the Italian striker, bar a lot of frustration, but getting him the ball in open space will put the skills of Tadić & company to test.  If they can gain any momentum, expect Nathaniel Clyne and/or Ryan Bertrand to 'bomb' forward and help out on the attacking end.  It would be 'suicidal' to do so often though as Liverpool's counter is quick and deadly.

If I had to make a prediction, I'd say Liverpool 2-1 with goals from Coutinho, Skrtel, and Shane Long.

Jay Rodriguez for £19m?! I must be taking crazy pills.

Jay Rodriguez isn't worth £1.9m, yet alone 19! That is absurd.  There just can't be any truth to Rodgers being interested in him.  If so, somebody needs to set his head right, because that's certifiable. Are these stats worthy of a £19m attacking midfielder/winger/forward?

Southampton 2013-14

npgp90	gcp90	ccp90	ap90	ccv
0.53	0.63	0.7	0.11	14.3
pass%	bp%	sacc%	shot%	TTI90
76.6	49	31.7	14.9	12.9
gap90	gsp90	gop90	tgop	gopd90
1.37	1.51	0.14	0.21	-0.07

Southampton 2012-13

npgp90	gcp90	ccp90	ap90	ccv
0.25	0.45	0.74	0.21	27.8
pass%	bp%	sacc%	shot%	TTI90
73.8	-	36	6.7	14.4
gap90	gsp90	gop90	tgop	gopd90
1.61	1.2	-0.41	-0.29	0.12

I'll save you the trouble and say 'Hell no!' Rodriguez is not good enough to wear the Liverpool shirt.  It's bad enough we grossly overpaid for his former teammate, but he shouldn't even be in the picture.  Whomever says we should buy him, should be committed, immediately.

Not a single stat above could be deemed 'outstanding'.  He does have great chances created value numbers, but that's mainly due to lack of created chances more than anything.  He had a total of 38 for the past two seasons combined.  For perspective, Glen Johnson had 74 over the same span.

Rodriguez is clearly poor on the ball.  His turnover rate and passing percentages are dismal.  He did see slight improvement from one season to the next, but he'll be 25 by the end of the month.  His performance curve can't go too much higher.

Seriously, Rodgers, Rodriguez? I'm hoping he was mis-heard and really said Ricardo Rodriguez.  If not, we need to find where the real Rodgers is being held and get rid of his reptilian humanoid doppelganger sent by Malcolm Glazer from his invisible spaceship.  This hyperreality is making me lose my mind.

Forget Lovren, we've got Kevin Stewart now

It is baffling that the signing of Kevin Stewart is deemed 'news'.  What is more pathetic though is when a blog sensationalizes and exaggerates to trick people into visiting their site by calling Stewart a 'Prem' defender.  He is 20-years-old and has played a grand total of zero Prem minutes.  Unless Rodgers thinks he'll be some sort of late bloomer, what's the point?  Is Ilori and/or Coates, as long as the latter is here, going to get a chance?  We need a player who is going to challenge for a starting spot and Stewart isn't that.

Dejan Lovren, on the other hand, could. The 25-year-old Southampton and Serbian international anchored a very solid Saints defense last season.  In fact, in my overall defense ranking table, the South Coast side finished third, only a point from being tied top with Chelsea and Crystal Palace.  As I have said, I don't think individual defensive stats hold much water, but I do think in the very least, you can find fault and strength. Here are Lovren's stats from last season along with those of Sakho, Skrtel, Agger, and Old Man Toure.

	Lovren	Sakho	Skrtel	Agger	Toure
age	25	24	29	29	34
app(subs)	31	18(1)	36	16(4)	15(5)
mins	2787	1478	3221	1421	1443
goals	2	1	7	2	0
assist	1	0	1	1	2
chances	4	2	7	2	7
npgp90	0.07	0.06	0.2	0.13	0
gcp90	0.1	0.06	0.22	0.19	0.13
ccp90	0.13	0.12	0.2	0.13	0.44
ap90	0.03	0	0.03	0.06	0.13
ccv	0.23	0	0.15	0.46	0.3
pass%	82	92.5	90.8	89.1	86.4
bp%	21.5	22.6	23.7	18.7	20.5
sacc%	15.2	10	53.3	42.8	14.3
shot%	9	10	46.7	28.6	0
tp90	2	1.6	1.4	1.7	2.1
tack %	57.8	71.4	50	55.6	65.1
intp90	2.7	1.6	1.7	1.3	0.9
clrp90	7.7	8.3	11.5	7.2	9.2
dribpp90	0.5	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.4
bsp90	0.3	0.4	1.1	0.5	0.8
adwp90	3.3	2.9	3.6	2.8	2.7
adwon%	61.2	56	70.1	65.2	50.6
TTI90	10.4	5.6	5.2	5	5.8

So what does Lovren do well? Interceptions and aerial duels certainly stand out.  Though it's kind of disconcerting that he's easily taken off the dribble more than the other four, especially Toure.  It questions his pace and quickness.  He also turns over the ball significantly more and he had less touches than Skrtel, so the 'Suarez' factor does not come into play.

Is he worth the reported £20m that it may cost to bring him in? Absolutely not.  If he alone was the reason the Saints defense was so good, yes, but they have/had Schneiderlin, Wanyama, Fonte, Clyne, and Shaw.  None of those five, save Shaw, is worth that much, and that's only because Shaw is 19.  I'd rather us just try and sigh Steven Caulker. 

Southampton's loss may be Adam Hammill's gain

Word out of Southampton is that the Saints might have to sell some top players in January due to financial difficulties. Southampton Leisure Holdings PLC, the parent company that owns the club in principal, released a statement that hinted at such moves. Apparently the board has decided to reject the proposal from Sisu Capital to purchase the club at 20% of the stock value.

Though that may be detrimental to the club's goal of reaching the Premiership, for Adam Hammill, the 19-year-old on-loan winger from LFC, it may mean more pitch time. Hammill joined the Saints on a year-long loan in July, but injuries have limited him to just five appearances and only one start. Unfortunately Southampton failed to win any of those matches as well, losing four and drawing one.

It goes without saying that it's been a disappointing season so far for the Liverpool-born lad. Not getting a lot of playing time on top of being on a squad that sits mid-table in the Championship is probably doing little for his confidence.

Hammill began attending the Academy at the age of eight and was an integral part of the 2006 FA Youth Cup-winning side. Last year he was sent on-loan to Scottish side Dunfermline, where he helped lead what was an eventually-relegated Scottish Premiership side to the final of the Scottish Cup. He also scored a cracker of a goal against Celtic FC and became such a fan favorite, that a song praising his play was posted on YouTube.

Though it may be selfish to want your own player to play more at the expense of the club, who knows? Maybe Southampton's loss will eventually be their own gain. In the past, Adam Hammill has shown he is able to raise his level of play and be a driving force on the pitch. I fully expect him to be a first-team regular at Liverpool in a couple of years.

Some more Adam Hammill videos for you to watch:
The goal versus Celtic
Match against Kilmarnock
Match versus Hearts
The 6 million dollar Adam Hammill