The most dangerous player for Southampton at Anfield

Nathaniel Clyne gets no respect.  The 23-year-old right back put up some solid attacking numbers last season and was more of a catalyst in the opponent's third than Luke Shaw or any other Saints defender.  If he is allowed to be a factor tomorrow, it will increase Southampton's chances of scoring and even winning exponentially.  They will probably push forward in limited numbers as not to suffer an 'easy' goal on the counter and an extra player to stretch the Liverpool defence would be very beneficial in that regard.

Here is the offensive output for Clyne last season:

ap90	cc90	cc90	ccv	pass%	bp%	lb90	lb%	tti90	gopd
0.19	0.19	0.58	0.143	0.816	0.41	1.26	0.542	10.73	0.42

The most impressive stat is his goals on pitch difference.  Lovren, Shaw, and especially Chambers paled in comparison.  Our new centre back posted an acceptable -0.05, Shaw was a little bit better with a 0.03, but Chambers was horrendous with a -0.59, a full goal difference than Clyne.  Did Arsenal buy the wrong right back?  I think so.

Despite the endless jokes the south coast club has endured this summer, Southampton is not without quality.  Even with Jay Rodriguez out due to injury, they will be a formidable attacking force.  The key will be how well their midfield interacts.  Most likely, Morgan Schniederlin (or Jack Cork) and Victor Wanyama will start as defensive midfielders with Gaston Ramirez, Dušan Tadić, Steven Davis, and James-Ward Prowse in front of them.  Not to be too cliché, but the Saints will look to hold on to the ball as long as possible, forcing Liverpool to come at them and hoping the Merseysiders will make a mistake.

Unfortunately for them, it will leave new boy Graziano Pellè alone at the top.  I don't expect much from the Italian striker, bar a lot of frustration, but getting him the ball in open space will put the skills of Tadić & company to test.  If they can gain any momentum, expect Nathaniel Clyne and/or Ryan Bertrand to 'bomb' forward and help out on the attacking end.  It would be 'suicidal' to do so often though as Liverpool's counter is quick and deadly.

If I had to make a prediction, I'd say Liverpool 2-1 with goals from Coutinho, Skrtel, and Shane Long.

Take note United, Moreno transfer is how it's done

If reports are true and we have captured 22-year-old left back Alberto Moreno from Sevilla for £12m, Ian Ayre has outdone himself because that's a solid piece of business.  The original asking price was €20m or £15.9m, but months of negotiating dwindled it down, though I am sure there is some fine print of add-ons and possible transfer fee reductions of Iago Aspas if they choose to keep him.  Instead of being like United and just breaking out the check book, compromise appeared to have actually taken place, and we got a player at a fair price, though he could become a 'steal' down the road.

On top of his defensive abilities, Moreno has the dribbling and passing skills to make a tremendous impact on attack as well.  It's his acumen, his ability to discern and anticipate his opponent's next move that is most impressive and helps him shut'em down. His pace and vigor will benefit him on both sides of the pitch and are definitely Premier league quality.

The stats from his two seasons at Sevilla show different sides of his skill spectrum.  In his first season he excelled on defence and the second he improved his attacking numbers though seemingly at the cost of his defensive contribution:

yr	gc90	cc90	ps%	bp%	tti90	gopd	tkl90	tkl%	int90	clr90	adw90	adw%
13-14	0.11	0.71	0.789	0.365	8.62	-0.15	1.94	.396	2.72	1.64	1.94	0.500
12-13	0.08	0.67	0.781	0.45	10	0.73	2.42	.378	3.83	3.50	1.92	0.478

He improved in nearly every attacking category, but slagged off a little on defense.  His improvement in backpass percentage and true turnover index per 90 minutes was quite impressive.  The drop in tackles, interceptions, and clearances per 90 minutes are disappointing and hopefully just a one year slump.  The drastic decline in his goals-on-pitch is alarming, hopefully going from a very impressive 0.73 to a -0.15 is just a glitch and he becomes a positive influence once again.

If he can get back to his first season numbers in the first third and continue his improvement in the opponent's, he'll be well-worth his reasonable price tag.  At least we didn't pay £30m for him, Shaw will have to put up at least twice the numbers of Moreno to prove he's worth that much.

Paul Scholes: clandestine Liverpool fan

The Ginger Prince appears obsessed with the Reds these days, sounding off on our players whenever he can.  I would say he's a wind-up muppet, but he's not, most of the time he actually talks sense.

He most recently chimed in on the Luis Suarez transfer saga, questioning whether 'El Conejo Loco' and Messi will be able to play together. “If Luis Suarez does sign for Barcelona from Liverpool, will Lionel Messi ‘accept’ him? Suarez is a centre forward and he won’t want to play out wide. I can’t see Suarez and Messi linking well together,” Scholes wrote on his Paddy Power blog.

He's not afraid to criticize his former club either.  On the Shaw transfer, he wrote, 'For a left-back to be worth £34m shows how silly the game has gone. For that money I want a centre-forward who’s going to score 30 goals a season.'  Preaching to the choir, my frienemy.

Before the World Cup, he praised 'the Liverpool way' of playing football and challenged the English to emulate it in Brazil.  On the subject he wrote, 'It would be refreshing for England to adopt Liverpool’s attacking mentality in Brazil. Really go for it. That means certainly four, and possibly five, Liverpool players in the England starting XI against Italy on June 14' and 'I’d love to see Roy be brave enough to play like Liverpool (or Man United teams of the past).'  Glad to see he realizes the glory years of his former club are in the past.

When it comes to Gerrard, he's had nothing but love, stating in the same post, 'Gerrard (a good leader who will have quickly moved on from that slip) has adjusted his game superbly, very much like I did' and 'That’s the big difference between Steven (Gerrard) and Lampard, for example. I’m not sure Lampard has the ability to control a game. He’s always someone who’s up trying to score goals.'  You know now he's expecting a nice Christmas present for the Gerrard household.

The best part is he gets a joke in here and there, for instance, 'Defensively Liverpool were poor – conceding 50 goals – but they can be contenders again next year IF they can get two world-class centre halves and a left-back. I’m talking about players of the standard of Jaap Stam and Rio Ferdinand.' Rio Ferdinand, world class!?!? Oh the wit.

It's too bad Scholesy wasted his career on the dark side.  He should have went to Italy or Spain, where he's actually more appreciated and wouldn't have played in the shadows of bigger personalities.  No matter what, I've never desired him to play for Liverpool and he has never been better than Gerrard.

Forget Lovren, we've got Kevin Stewart now

It is baffling that the signing of Kevin Stewart is deemed 'news'.  What is more pathetic though is when a blog sensationalizes and exaggerates to trick people into visiting their site by calling Stewart a 'Prem' defender.  He is 20-years-old and has played a grand total of zero Prem minutes.  Unless Rodgers thinks he'll be some sort of late bloomer, what's the point?  Is Ilori and/or Coates, as long as the latter is here, going to get a chance?  We need a player who is going to challenge for a starting spot and Stewart isn't that.

Dejan Lovren, on the other hand, could. The 25-year-old Southampton and Serbian international anchored a very solid Saints defense last season.  In fact, in my overall defense ranking table, the South Coast side finished third, only a point from being tied top with Chelsea and Crystal Palace.  As I have said, I don't think individual defensive stats hold much water, but I do think in the very least, you can find fault and strength. Here are Lovren's stats from last season along with those of Sakho, Skrtel, Agger, and Old Man Toure.

	Lovren	Sakho	Skrtel	Agger	Toure
age	25	24	29	29	34
app(subs)	31	18(1)	36	16(4)	15(5)
mins	2787	1478	3221	1421	1443
goals	2	1	7	2	0
assist	1	0	1	1	2
chances	4	2	7	2	7
npgp90	0.07	0.06	0.2	0.13	0
gcp90	0.1	0.06	0.22	0.19	0.13
ccp90	0.13	0.12	0.2	0.13	0.44
ap90	0.03	0	0.03	0.06	0.13
ccv	0.23	0	0.15	0.46	0.3
pass%	82	92.5	90.8	89.1	86.4
bp%	21.5	22.6	23.7	18.7	20.5
sacc%	15.2	10	53.3	42.8	14.3
shot%	9	10	46.7	28.6	0
tp90	2	1.6	1.4	1.7	2.1
tack %	57.8	71.4	50	55.6	65.1
intp90	2.7	1.6	1.7	1.3	0.9
clrp90	7.7	8.3	11.5	7.2	9.2
dribpp90	0.5	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.4
bsp90	0.3	0.4	1.1	0.5	0.8
adwp90	3.3	2.9	3.6	2.8	2.7
adwon%	61.2	56	70.1	65.2	50.6
TTI90	10.4	5.6	5.2	5	5.8

So what does Lovren do well? Interceptions and aerial duels certainly stand out.  Though it's kind of disconcerting that he's easily taken off the dribble more than the other four, especially Toure.  It questions his pace and quickness.  He also turns over the ball significantly more and he had less touches than Skrtel, so the 'Suarez' factor does not come into play.

Is he worth the reported £20m that it may cost to bring him in? Absolutely not.  If he alone was the reason the Saints defense was so good, yes, but they have/had Schneiderlin, Wanyama, Fonte, Clyne, and Shaw.  None of those five, save Shaw, is worth that much, and that's only because Shaw is 19.  I'd rather us just try and sigh Steven Caulker. 

How much will United pay for Dirk Kuyt?

After dishing out ridiculous sums for turnover prone 25-year-old, Ander Herrera, and the nemesis of Victor Moses, Luke Shaw, they are now linked to splash the cash for soon-to-be 34-year-old former 'Liverpool Legend', Dirk Kuyt. I use 'legend' in the loosest sense there, but Kuyt is much more deserving than say, Roy Hodgson.

Dirk Kuyt's evolution as a footballer is interesting to say the least.  At FC Utrecht and especially Feyenoord in the Eredivisie, he was a poacher, a goal-scoring machine.  Unfortunately, he didn't have the pace to translate his finishing skills in the Prem and had to change his approach if he wanted to survive.  So he became a more complete player, a blue collar one mind you, but good enough to earn a starting place as a supporting striker.  His determination to stay and fight for a place at Liverpool after a disappointing first season instead of returning to the Eridivise where he could have easily reverted back to his prolific poaching ways was a testament to his character.

In his first season at Liverpool, he had one assist in 34 appearances, in his second he had 8 in 32.  In his final three seasons he had a chance created per 90 of 1.79, but it was not just his ability to make important passes that improved, he became a defensive forward, if one ever existed.  From 2009-2012, he averaged 1.91 tackles per 90 and 1.56 int per 90, for perspective, during that same period, Rooney contributed 0.63 tp90 and 0.42 intp90, a massive difference.

His latest rebirth as a left wing back for the Netherlands in the World Cup apparently has spurned Van Gaal into thinking about taking him to United when the Dutch coach starts his term there.  If I can say so sans punishment, playing the heavy-footed Kuyt at that position actually is a genius move, it takes advantage of his strengths and less exposes his weaknesses.  His contributions have been solid on both ends of the pitch and the coverage he provides for Daley Blind is pricelesss, but will it translate in the Prem?

The potential big winner here is Fenerbache.  With United willing to pay double and triple a player's valuation, the Turkish club could possibly get £10m for a player they bought for £880,000.

Sturridge & Lambert just as good as Rooney & RVP

I'm obsessed... with numbers that is.  Yesterday I wrote a piece about how Man U severrely skewed the market for overpaying for Herrera and Luke Shaw.  Needless  to say, I got some interesting responses from our second favorite club's fans.  Some of those referred to Rickie Lambert not being the best choice as our man up front, which is ignorant in itself as we all know Sturridge will play there as long as he's healthy.

It goes without saying that Sturridge & Suarez are eons better than Rooney & Van Persie, but Sturridge & Lambert are at least comparable.  Here are each pair's combined stats from last season:

	Sturridge & Lambert	Rooney & RVP
goals	34	29
assists	17	13
chances	82	72
npg90	0.55	0.54
gcp90	0.9	0.94
ccp90	1.4	1.6
pass %	73.5	79.4
bp %	46.1	49
sacc %	39.2	39.3
shot %	16	17.8
TTI90	27.3	25.9

As you can see, not much difference.  Of course, Rooney and RVP cost Man United £71m when adjusted for inflation, while Sturridge and Lambert only cost LFC £19m, which is £52m less for all you math-challenged Mancunians.  That would have been plenty to buy Herrera and Shaw for a club that knows how to negotiate a transfer.

United buy Ander & Luke Shaw for £60m+, way to go NUMPTIES!

Wow, I haven't seen a bad bit of business like this in a long time.  Especially not in a single day. Ander Herrera will be 25-years-old by the time Premier League season starts and he's never been called up to play for his country.  Is this the kind of player Man U has stooped too?  Don't get me wrong, he's a good player, but he's no where near worth £30m. Let's see how he stacks up against our midfield:

	Herrera	Sterling	Gerrard	Can	Coutinho	Hendo
age	25*	19	34	20	22	24
app (sub)	31(2)	24(9)	33(1)	24(5)	28(5)	35
mins	2548	2220	2895	2190	2323	3129
goals	5	9	13	3	5	4
assists	5	5	13	3	7	7
chances	53	51	67	16	64	62
npg90	0.18	0.36	0.09	0.12	0.19	0.12
gcp90	0.35	0.57	0.81	0.25	0.47	0.32
ccp90	1.9	2.1	2.1	0.7	2.5	1.8
pass %	80.6	81.7	85.9	77.9	80.6	87.1
bp %	40.6	46.8	30.6	39.6	36.7	41.2
sacc %	27.9	48.9	51.7	31.4	28.7	32.7
shot %	7.4	20	27.1	12	7	8.2
TTI90	15.3	12.1	10.9	13.2	11	9.5

His numbers are most comparable to Coutinho and Henderson. Our Brazilian produces more chances and turns over the ball much less.  Need I remind anyone that we got him for £8.8m? Three times less, three years younger, and more productive.

Henderson is the far superior passer, turns over the ball much less, and is nearly a year younger.  Dalglish was ridiculed for paying around £16m for Henderson, but compared to what Man U gave Atletico Bilbao for Ander, he looks like a genius.

I've had my say about Luke Shaw. If he turns out to be as productive as Kolarov, his price is somewhat justfied, but he's got a lot of work to get there and he's got to stay healthy to do so.  Southampton must be laughing all the way to the bank, £20m was probably too much.

The thing that pisses me off more than anything is that buys like these severrely skew the market value of players.  Brendan Rodgers has made some really bad buys (Borini & Aspas come to mind), but Coutinho and Sturridge help us forget.  I have a feeling Can, who we got for £10.5m, will end up being a great add as well. 

Man U seems to lack the ability to make deals via leverage and just splashes the cash to avoid negotiation.  If a player wants to leave a club and his valuation is surpassed, it's hard for the retaining club to deny such a transaction.  Luke Shaw is not worth £30m, but unfortunately Ricardo Rodriguez is now probably worth £50m because of deals like these.

And then there's Marcelo...

I've been through nearly every left back out there that has been linked with Liverpool except Real Madrid's Marcelo.  I'm not sure how much they would want for him, but I would assume they wouldn't take less than £22m.  Personally, I think he's overrated, let's see if I'm right:

	Marcelo	Moreno	Rodriguez	Shaw
age	26	22*	21	19
app(subs)	24(4)	27(2)	34	35
mins	2177	2414	3060	2990
goals	1	3	5	0
assist	6	0	9	1
chances	44	19	78	33
npgp90	0.04	0.11	0.09	0
gcp90	0.29	0.11	0.41	0.03
ccp90	1.8	0.71	2.3	0.99
pass%	85.1	78.9	80.5	79
bp%	41.6	36.5	44.6	41.6
sacc%	25	17	55.3	41.7
shot%	4	13	13.2	0
tp90	2.9	1.9	3.1	2.2
tack %	57.9	39.6	57.7	58.7
intp90	1.4	2.7	1.9	1.1
clrp90	1.7	1.6	2.8	3.7
dribpp90	0.6	0.8	0.8	0.7
bsp90	0.08	0.3	0.4	0.1
adwp90	0.7	1	3.1	1.8
adwon%	41	50	56.2	56.5
TTI90	10.2	8.5	11.1	11.6

The Brazilian ties for last in overall ranking with Luke Shaw at 2.75, second is Moreno at 2.63, and coming out on top with a score of 1.75 is Ricardo Rodriguez.  Clearly we will have to over pay for Marcelo if his contribution is as equal to Shaw and the latter is 7 years his junior.

The only thing Marcelo does really well is pass the ball and he's a decent tackler, but he was either last or second to last in all other defensive categories.  He is especially poor when it comes to aerial duels, not only did he have the lowest per 90, but also the lowest success percentage.

Once again Rodriguez shows how he is the business, I will be shocked if he starts next season in a Wolfsburg shirt.  The only way Rodgers should even consider bringing in Marcelo is at discount of say £10m, but I doubt that'll happen.

Luke Shaw for £27m? No thanks, we got Flanagan

Rumor has it Luke Shaw is headed to Man U for £27m.  That's a preposterous amount for a player who will definitely not become the next Gareth Bale.  In fact, he'll be lucky if he can become the next Leighton Baines or Aleksandar Kolarov.  Here's a look at stats from last season for Shaw, Flanagan, and a few other top left backs:

	Shaw	Flanagan	Baines	Azpilicueta	Kolarov
age	19*	21	29	24	28
app(subs)	35	23	32	26(3)	21(9)
mins	2990	1890	2838	2325	1977
goals	0	1	5	0	1
assist	1	1	4	0	7
chances	33	13	48	12	34
npgp90	0	0.05	0.06	0	0.05
gcp90	0.03	0.1	0.29	0	0.36
ccp90	0.99	0.62	1.5	0.47	1.6
pass%	79	83.7	85.8	80.6	81.2
bp%	41.6	42.6	41.4	37.1	43.5
sacc%	41.7	42.9	23.8	40	24.5
shot%	0	14.3	23.8	0	1.9
tp90	2.2	3.8	3	3.8	2.3
tack %	58.7	45.7	60.3	52.9	56.2
intp90	1.1	1.9	1.1	1.9	1.4
clrp90	3.7	3.6	2.5	5.3	2.8
dribpp90	0.7	1.9	0.6	1.1	0.8
bsp90	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.1
adwp90	1.8	1.4	0.4	1.3	1.7
adwon%	56.5	46.8	41.2	58.6	71.7
TTI90	11.6	9.2	9.1	10.1	10.9

* Shaw will turn 19 next month.

Compared to Flanagan, Shaw is the better chance creator, more efficient tackler, and significantly superior in the air, but our number 38 has a higher pass rate, nearly doubles his counterpart's tackles and clearances, and holds onto the ball better.  If Southampton were to offer Shaw for Flanagan, Rodgers would be an idiot not to take them up on it, but that would never happen.  It's not that Shaw is that much better than our 'Red Cafu' and the distance between their productivity may never be much, but Shaw has more potential.

Comparing Shaw to the others above, he is probably most similar to Kolarov.  The Serbian is a great attacking left back, but is not an exceptional defender like Azpilicueta.  Would I have paid £27m for Kolarov at (soon-to-be) 19, if I had known then what I do now? Probably, but with Shaw there's no such luxury.  It's still a crap shoot with all that can happen in his young career.

The one thing that will improve at a bigger club is the quality of his teammates.  No offense to Southampton, but Adam Lallana is no Steven Gerrard and Rickie Lambert is not even a poor man's Rooney.  Having players around him who are quicker and more talented overall should improve his numbers.  It certainly helps Kolarov.

If I've said it once, I've said 'til your eyes bleed, if we are going to splash that kind of cash for a left back or really any player, it should be Ricardo Rodriguez. He is the real deal and can provide coverage on the wing as well.  Shaw is just not worth the risk when we have fully capable coverage in Flanagan.