Is Gonzalo Higuaín worth more than Suárez?

We all know Ronaldo and Messi are the cream of the European football crop, but number three is up for grabs with Luis Suárez and Gonzalo Higuaín among the top candidates.  Most people believe the Uruguayan is the clear cut choice, but a closer look at their performance data may lead to a change of mind.

The fact is, Higuaín is the superior player when it comes to the numbers.  The Argentine is considered to be more of a 'poacher' while most believe Suárez is the more complete player, but the stats tell a different story.  Both players have benefited by playing most of their careers at 'big' clubs.  Ajax may not seem like as 'big' a club as it was 20 years ago, but it still attracts some of the best young talent in the world and was absolutely loaded the years El Conejo Loco played there.  His teammates included Klaas-Jan Huntelaar, Jan Vertonghen, Urby Emanuelson, Thomas Vermaelen, Dennis Rommedahl, Maarten Stekelenburg, and Gregory van der Wiel among others.

Also, it could be argued that Suarez prospered from playing in a lesser league where his 'world class' talents allowed him to dominant his 'lesser' opponents while Higuain had to deal with the superior defences of La Liga.  Not to mention that the Eredivisie is an 'attacker's paradise' where players tend to rack up more impressive offensive stats than any other league in Europe.

Here are their accumulative stats since the 2006-07 seasons:

	npg90	ap90	gc90	cc90	ccv	pass%	sacc%	shot%	TTI90	gopd
Higuaín	0.73	0.31	1.09	1.38	0.23	0.808	0.518	0.449	12.27	0.11
Suárez	0.62	0.17	0.87	2.50	0.09	0.753	0.407	0.296	17.37	0.09

Higuaín takes almost every stat except chances created, but his chance created value is far superior.  In fact, one out of every four of his chances finds the back of the net while only one out of eleven for Suarez result in a goal.  That is one of the best ccvs I have ever seen and really sums up what Higuain is, efficient.  It's not that Suarez lacks in precision, but he fails in comparison to his Argentine counterpart.

The one thing Suarez does better, though is hard to quantify, is create chances for himself.  Though it doesn't really show self-created chances, the former Liverpool man has a successful dribble rate of 2.88 per 90 at 38% while the Napoli striker posts a 1.40 sdr90 at 47%.  Once again, Higuain is more efficient, though only completes half as many take-ons per ninety minutes.

To answer the question of this post though, no, I don't think Higuain is worth more than Suarez.  Numbers aren't everything and if you put the latter on the worst team in any league, I firmly believe he would make a bigger impact than the former.  Suarez doesn't need highly-skilled teammates to make a difference, but they obviously help.  Higuain is more efficient and can make a good team great, but I highly doubt he would be able to lead a team like Stoke to a Champions League spot.  He would make Liverpool more of a contender though, but £80m?  Messi is the only player worthy of that amount, but if we could somehow get Napoli to agree to half that, Rodgers would be crazy not to break the bank for him.

Wilfried Bony: All is fair in love and transfers, Spurs

Wilfried Bony had a pretty impressive first year in England, more impressive than most who come over from the Eredivisie.  Suarez didn't have that kind of year, not even close, neither did Christian Eriksen, though he was relatively close.  The most impressive thing about Bony's season was how much he got better as the season progressed.  He scored 12 goals and set up 3 more in the final 19 Prem matches.  In fact, he scored 5 and had 1 assist in the final 4.

Latest reports are that we are trying to 'hijack' Spurs bid for Bony.  Well, if that's not tongue-in-cheek, Sigurdsson anyone? I am all for signing the 25-year-old Ivorian striker, but not for the reportedly £40m that Swansea is asking.  That truly is mental.  Anything more than £35m would be too much risk of funds.

So how does he compare to let's say Sturridge?

	Bony	Sturridge
app(subs)	27(7)	26(3)
mins	2470	2267
p90	27.4	25.2
goals	16	21
assist	4	7
chances	25	29
npgp90	0.44	0.83
gcp90	0.73	1.1
ccp90	0.91	1.2
ap90	0.15	0.28
ccv	16.5	23.3
pass%	74.1	79.3
bp%	49.6	53.4
sacc%	37	42.4
shot%	14.8	21.2
TTI90	15.3	11
gap90	1.5	1.23
gsp90	1.62	2.7
gop90	0.12	1.47
tgop	0	1.32

Stat definitions can be found here.

Sturridge takes nearly every category save back pass percentage, but Bony is not far off.  Not bad for a first year Prem player compared to a well seasoned one.  If history stays true to itself, Bony will have an even better second season now that he's adapted to the English game and way of lifestyle.  He'll post even more impressive numbers with teammates like Sturridge, Coutinho, Sterling, and Gerrard, a luxury he did not have in Swansea.

One thing he can forget about is taking pens.  He enjoyed the padding of his stats last season with four of them, for us he will be at least third in line behind Gerrard and Sturridge, with Coutinho probably getting the nod over him if the Brazilian is on the pitch.

Will his signing actually happen? I'm not holding my breathe, but if does, suck it Tottenham.

https://docs.google.com/uc?export=download&id=0B0oQNIr-YdiyVWVyY2t3T2R3VVE

Why Rodgers should buy Bertrand

To get sacked and go on holiday.  I have little doubt that buying the Chelsea left back for his estimated valuation of £7m would be on par with buying Aspas for £7.5m or Borini for £10.4m.  Here are last season's stats for Bertrand, who spent the majority on loan at Villa, our Jon Flanagan, and the guy we should sign on a free from Heracles of the Eredivisie, Australian Jason Davidson.

	Bertrand	Flanagan	Davidson
age	25*	21	22
app(subs)	17	23	30
mins	1449	1890	2669
goals	0	1	2
assist	0	1	3
chances	4	13	32
npgp90	0	0.05	0.06
gcp90	0	0.1	0.17
ccp90	0.25	0.62	1.08
pass%	76.4	83.7	76.5
bp%	38.4	42.6	31.4
sacc%	50	42.9	38.5
shot%	0	14.3	15.4
tp90	1.9	3.8	1.7
tack %	60.5	45.7	51.2
intp90	0.9	1.9	2.2
clrp90	2.1	3.6	5.2
dribpp90	0.4	1.9	0.9
bsp90	0.4	0.2	0.5
TTI90	10.2	9.2	7.6

Bertrand pales in comparison to Flanagan and Davidson, in fact, other than his tackle success percentage, he's quite unimpressive.  More damning is that before joining Villa they had 23 points from their first 20 matches, but in the 16 of the remaining 18 matches that Bertrand played, they garnered only 12 points and won the fixture against Chelsea which could not feature him. 

Just don't do it Rodgers.  I read somewhere that the argument was how Rodgers has 'righted' Sturridge and could do the same for Bertrand.  That's a bunch of crock, when Sturridge is allowed to play in his natural position up front, as he did on loan at Bolton, he's highly productive, it has little to do with Rodgers 'righting' anything.  BR should be getting Davidson's rep on the phone as soon as possible before he finalizes his deal with Fulham.  That Felix Magath, he's never won anything.

We should have signed Dusan Tadic, not Lallana

With the announcement of our signing Adam Lallana forthcoming, I have not held back on my disappoint of his transfer.  He is just not good enough and brings nothing to our side that we don't already have a better version.  We need to bring players that offer a special dynamic, not one who actually created less chances and had less assists last season than his 29-year-old unheralded teammate, Steven Davis.  Here are last season stats for Dusan Tadic and Quincy Promes, who play for FC Twente in the Eredivisie, Lucas Piaźon, a Chelsea player who played for Vitesse, and Lallana, Sterling, and Coutinho:

	Tadic	Promes	Piaźon	Lallana	Sterling	Coutinho
age	25	22	20	26	19	22
app (sub)	33	31	24(5)	37(1)	24(9)	28(5)
mins	2970	2724	2106	3082	2220	2323
goals	16	11	11	9	9	5
assists	14	8	8	6	5	7
chances	133	84	78	68	51	64
npg90	0.27	0.36	0.34	0.26	0.36	0.19
gcp90	0.9	0.63	0.81	0.41	0.57	0.47
ccp90	4	2.8	3.3	1.9	2.1	2.5
pass %	79.3	82.3	81.7	84.6	81.7	80.6
bp %	45.4	52.2	52.3	50.3	46.8	36.7
sacc %	37.4	34	39.1	41.4	48.9	28.7
shot %	17.6	11	15.9	18	20	7
TTI90	16.1	12.7	14	13.9	12.1	11

Tadic's 133 chances created is beyond impressive, it is phenomenal.  He had 40 more than Antonio Cassano in Serie A, who finished second in all of Europe with 93, and 49 more than teammate Quincy Promes, who finished second in the Eredivisie with 84.

An interesting stat that I've been toying with is chance created efficiency, the percentage of chances created that actually results in goals.  A player can create chances all day, but if it doesn't result in goals, it usually produces a loss of possession.  Tadic has a 22.6% cce while Lallana has a 20.6%, which doesn't seem much of a difference, but when you consider the amount of key passes it's why Tadic has created twice as many goals while playing in a full less match.  Sterling, by the way, has the best of the above group at a very impressive 27.1% cce.

The bottom line is we could have bought a playmaker with Fabregas ability for £12-15m, but instead we paid £23-26m for a player with Kevin Mirallas skills.  Mirallas isn't bad, but he's far from great, and when his days at Anfield are over, I hope Lallana gets at least that much respect.

How much will United pay for Dirk Kuyt?

After dishing out ridiculous sums for turnover prone 25-year-old, Ander Herrera, and the nemesis of Victor Moses, Luke Shaw, they are now linked to splash the cash for soon-to-be 34-year-old former 'Liverpool Legend', Dirk Kuyt. I use 'legend' in the loosest sense there, but Kuyt is much more deserving than say, Roy Hodgson.

Dirk Kuyt's evolution as a footballer is interesting to say the least.  At FC Utrecht and especially Feyenoord in the Eredivisie, he was a poacher, a goal-scoring machine.  Unfortunately, he didn't have the pace to translate his finishing skills in the Prem and had to change his approach if he wanted to survive.  So he became a more complete player, a blue collar one mind you, but good enough to earn a starting place as a supporting striker.  His determination to stay and fight for a place at Liverpool after a disappointing first season instead of returning to the Eridivise where he could have easily reverted back to his prolific poaching ways was a testament to his character.

In his first season at Liverpool, he had one assist in 34 appearances, in his second he had 8 in 32.  In his final three seasons he had a chance created per 90 of 1.79, but it was not just his ability to make important passes that improved, he became a defensive forward, if one ever existed.  From 2009-2012, he averaged 1.91 tackles per 90 and 1.56 int per 90, for perspective, during that same period, Rooney contributed 0.63 tp90 and 0.42 intp90, a massive difference.

His latest rebirth as a left wing back for the Netherlands in the World Cup apparently has spurned Van Gaal into thinking about taking him to United when the Dutch coach starts his term there.  If I can say so sans punishment, playing the heavy-footed Kuyt at that position actually is a genius move, it takes advantage of his strengths and less exposes his weaknesses.  His contributions have been solid on both ends of the pitch and the coverage he provides for Daley Blind is pricelesss, but will it translate in the Prem?

The potential big winner here is Fenerbache.  With United willing to pay double and triple a player's valuation, the Turkish club could possibly get £10m for a player they bought for £880,000.

Is Afonso Alves the answer?

With Peter Crouch's whining arse hopefully on it's way out, Brazilian striker Afonso Alves has been the first name to surface as his replacement come January. You may recall his recent seven goal performance for Dutch side Heerenveen versus Heracles Almelo last Saturday. Though a somewhat impressive feat unless you're playing American Samoa, I am always wary of a player being over-hyped after such a performance.

The only thing I will say about Alves is that he was more deserving of the Golden Boot last year than Totti. I realize that the Eredivisie is not as strong a league as Serie A, but a lot of the AS Roma forward's goals came against lesser opponents while Alves should little disparity in scoring against teams no matter their place on the table. Also Totti got more help from his more formidable side.

With that said, I've never been that impressed with the Brazilian, but I have never really watched that much of him to make a confident assessment as to whether or not he would be the right fit. With our current issues of scoring inefficacy, maybe we need a player that may be lacking flair but has that Ruud Van Nistelrooy sense of netting yawners. Of course ultimately it may come down to availability and price anyhow and I don't see us overpaying for him just to pry Heerenveen's grasp loose.

Anyhow, here's the highlights of his seven goal match: