Spurs 0, LFC 3: Five things learnt

1. Mamadou Sakho is a bad influence.
In the first two matches, Lovren was rarely caught out of position, but against Spurs it happened twice and Liverpool were lucky not to surrender a goal.  Sakho uses his athletic ability to cloak his 'bad' positioning, but Lovren doesn't have that luxury.  It was also the first match that the Croatian played on the right.

2. You shall not pass!
Tottenham dominated possession and were able to move around the ball quite freely, that is until they got close to Liverpool's box.  Spurs managed just 9 of 22 passes into the box, that was 1.9% of their passes completed and 0.4% attempted, resulting in only 3 chances created.  Liverpool, on the other hand, attempted just 10 passes into the box (2.8%), completing 4 (1.4%), creating a chance and another that lead to a goal.

3. Sometimes efficiency doesn't matter that much
Especially when you can be effective on the counter.  All three goals came on the counter and if we are able to 'build a fort' around the box, opponents will just get frustrated.  That should lead to even more counter opportunities as we take advantage of their errors and lack of equal pace. Here are the efficiency stats for each side:

	att	def	ovr
Tottenham	0.633	0.679	0.656
Liverpool	0.54	0.645	0.593

As you can see, Tottenham were superior, they just weren't able to take advantage of their chances.  That could have been due to Liverpool's defence or Spurs' incompetence.

4. Do I really have to start calculating 'forced back passes'?

Tottenham were forced to make 94 backward passes in Liverpool's third out of 121 completed overall.  They attempted 95 and 160 respectively, which means that 38 times the ball either went out of bounds or changed possession.  It also means they were only able to continue their forward attack on 27 passes.

5. Liverpool can play defence when they want to.

28 tackles, 14 interceptions, 45 clearances, and 2 blocked shots, that's quite a line.  Not to mention the clean sheet.  The good part is we can play better and will need to when we have to play the real contenders.  The moments of communication breakdown were quite evident versus Spurs and others will punish us for that.

Just how statistically poor was Balotelli vs Spurs?

Before all you fan boys get out your stakes out and start your trash can fires, this post isn't going to be a complete slagging of Balotelli.  Everyone has to understand the expectations that come with a name like 'Super' Mario.  Unfortunately, the fact that we didn't pay £24m for his loan move (you're chum, Falcao) won't matter, even if we had gotten him on a free, he will always be a target for the press and opposition supporters.  He didn't do himself any favors against Spurs though.

Balotelli had 34 possessions (or touches) at White Hart Lane, completed just 8 of 16 passes, took 5 shots, but only one was on-goal.  Factor in his (lack of) defensive contributions and he was accountable for 12 negative changes of possession in 61 minutes.   He did have a chance created and three clearances though.

His attacking efficiency ended up being 0.324, the worst on the team.  For perspective, Lazar Markovic who has played a similar 59 minutes, destroys 'Super' Mario with a 0.744.  Sturridge who is worst on the team among minutes played qualifiers is still better than his Italian strike-mate with a 0.532.  Even Ricky Lambert betters him with 0.625.

He had a poor debut, you can either admit it or take residence in delusion land, where Glenn Johnson is still a good right back.  When he has such matches, he has to do the one thing that can be quantified, he has to create space.  He has to be a threat, go to open areas and force the opposition defence take notice, so Sturridge, Sterling, and other teammate have room to operate.

My feed was down the past couple of days so if you want to go to any missed articles they are below:
Liverpool has played the hardest schedule, boasts the best defence
Wanted: Yaya Sanogo, for impersonating a footballer (Match Day 3 morsels)
Skrtel top defensively, Flamini take over attack & overall efficiency
Tottenham 0, Liverpool 3: Sometimes moments of madness

Tottenham 0, Liverpool 3: Sometimes moments of madness...

They dominated possession, had a higher pass completion percentage, and were superior in the air, but Tottenham still limped away 3-0 losers.  How could this be? Counter attack and positioning.  All three of Liverpool goals were due to anticipating our opponent's movements and responding quickly.  That takes practice and talent, an ode to our mad Professor Rodgers.

What made it most impressive is that Gerrard had an uncharacteristically poor performance on attack, but made up for it on defence.  He completed just 71.1% of his passes, his lowest amount for a long time, but did have 3 tackles and 8 clearances.  Without some of those clearances, it may have been a closer match.

Gerrard's bi-polar display was quite indicative of many other LFC 'stars'.  Sterling was tremendous on the ball, scored a great goal, but his passing was poor (69.7%)and he really should have had scored from point blank range.  Lovren was impressive as well with 4 tackles, 2 interceptions, and 13 clearances, but his passing was also dreadful and he had to make two potential goal-saving tackles that were probably his fault to begin with.

Balotelli and Allen were not at their best, but Manquillo and Sturridge were the worst of the bunch.  The former was clearly rattled and wasted passes throughout, while the latter seemed to be trying to hard to make things happen.  I don't want to say he is trying to make up for the loss of Suarez, but he is, and it isn't working.  He's got to let the match come to him.

Henderson, Can, and Markovic played well, the last two in a cameo capacity.  I can't wait to see how the Serbian does in a full debut, he's very confident and smooth on the ball, which is entertaining to watch.  My man of the match though was Moreno, but not just because of his lung-bursting stunner.  He also added 4 tackles, 9 clearances, and a passing percentage of  87.1%, when others failed to post decent passing stats.

This was a must-win for several reasons, mostly for the confidence of the team and supporters.  If we can go into a place like White Hart Lane and not play to the best of our ability, but still come away with an impressive 3-0 win, just imagine who we can beat at our best.  Fortunately our next 12 fixtures are favorable, hopefully we'll win all of them and be at our confident best when Chelsea come to town November 8th.

Tottenham 0, Liverpool 1: thoughts on the 'fast' break

It's been quite an entertaining half, at least between the boxes.  Both sides seem to have had great build-ups in possession, but in so, neither seem to be able to create solid chances in the opposition's box.  All the potential goals and the solo goal have come on the counter.

Spurs dominated possession the first third of the match, but then Liverpool started to take control.  During Tottenham's seeming domination, the only goal came about on a tremendous effort by Henderson, who intercepted the initial ball and passed to Sturridge.  Studge, who isn't having the best of afternoons, played the ball into a streaking Henderson, who found Sterling brilliantly on a cross box pass.  Sterling slotted it in, leaving Spurs defence wondering what had just happened.

The quickness of the scoring string was indicative of Liverpool's play so far.  They set a precedent on pace and Spurs are struggling to keep it up.  If they want to play our style, we should be able to add a couple of more goals in the second.  If they slow it down, well, as long they cover the counter, this match is probably over as they are having trouble breaking the box playing that way.

As for individual performance, Sterling and Henderson are the cream of a rather mediocre crop.  Balotelli has played well, but he really should have a goal with chances like his header gone wide on the Gerrard free kick and that open goal when Lloris straggled out of the box.  Speaking of Gerrard, he's had a very up-and-down match, more down though, if he can calm down it will greatly increase our chances of three points.  On ward and (hopefully) upward...

Obscured by Dowd: A history of the ref & LFC

Phil Dowd is the ref for this Sunday's match at White Hart Lane, here is a breakdown of his record with Liverpool.  He has refereed 57 matches featuring Liverpool Football Club in all competitions.  In those matches, LFC is 21-12-14 and have accumulated 61 cards, 57 yellows, 2 yellow-reds and 1 straight red.  Our opponents have received 88 yellows, 1 yellow-red, and 2 straight reds.

Dowd has awarded 5 penalties to Liverpool all-time, 4 at Anfield and 1 on the road (funny enough coming in a loss at White Hart Lane).  Three of those came against Crystal Palace in 2004 with Milan Baros converting two.  The Czech striker had the third waved off, but he still managed a hat-trick in the 3-2 win at Anfield.

Away from Anfield, LFC is 6-4-10 under the disciplinary guidance of Mr. Dowd in all competitions, receiving 37 yellows, 1 yellow-red, and 1 straight red.  Their opponents have accumulated 40 cards, all yellow.

In Premier League play, Liverpool is 17-12-10 with Dowd, but only 4-6-9 away from Anfield.  They have received 33 cards in visiting matches (31 y, 1 y-r, 1 r) while their home opponents have been booked 29 times, all yellow.

Twice Dowd has mediated matches between Spurs and LFC at White Hart Lane, both times Tottenham won.  The first time in January 2008, a heart-breaking affair that would wind up costing Liverpool a chance at the title that season.  Up 1-0 through two-thirds of the match, Jamie Carragher headed in an own goal against the run of play and in the 91st minute, a shambolic defensive display allowed Pavlyuchenko to score the winner.

The second match occurred November 2012, also resulting in a 2-1 Spurs win.  The north London club went up 2-0 in the opening 16 minutes with goals from Aaron Lennon and Gareth Bale, never looking back.  The only 'goal' Liverpool could manage was a Bale own goal in the 72nd minute.

Dowd has over seen some other significant matches including Brendan Rodgers' EPL debut as LFC manager.  In a controversial affair at the Hawthorns, Dowd awarded West Brom two ridiculous penalties and handed five cards to Liverpool players including a laughable straight red to Daniel Agger.  Another match he refereed was our 1-2 FA Cup final loss to Chelsea in May 2012.

Sunday is looking very 'drawish' at Tottenham

Before last season's 5-0 drubbing at White Hart Lane, Liverpool had lost five straight matches there.  The Reds are 6-5-11 in 22 Premiership seasons at Tottenham.  Seven of those losses finished with a 1-2 scoreline.  Liverpool have scored 30 goals and allowed 32 at Spurs over that period.

In their 20 matches away from Anfield on match day 3, LFC is 6-5-9.  They are 1-1-0 at White Hart Lane during that time, a 0-0 draw in 2005-06 and 3-1 win in 1995-96.  In the latter match, John Barnes scored a brace to give him 100 career goals for Liverpool, while Robbie Fowler's lone goal gave him 50.

Liverpool is 6-8-5 at the previous season 6th place finisher, though that opponent has never been Spurs.

The previous season 2nd place finisher is 9-6-6 at the previous season 6th place side, though the former has only lost once in the previous 8 meetings when Liverpool beat Chelsea 4-1 in 2011-12.   Liverpool is 1-0-1 as the second place side in this situation, beating Villa 1-0 in 2009-10 and losing to Chelsea 2-1 in 02-03.

Everything points to a draw at the moment, but there's still plenty of research to be done.

Fantasy Picks for Matchday 2: Tottenham, Southampton, Chelsea, Swansea, & Hull

Note: I don't play fantasy football myself, but I was asked who I would pick this week and for the next month or so (plus a few 'alternates').  So, using my vast vault of useless data, here's my picks:

Keeper
This week: Lloris (Tottenham)
Alternate: McGregor (Hull), Courtois (Chelsea)

Long term: Forster (Southampton), McGregor (Hull), Mannone (Sunderland), Krul (Newcastle)

Defenders
This week: Clyne (Southampton), Davies (Hull), Kelly (CP), Rose (Tottenham)
Alternates: Chester (Hull), Vlaar (Aston Villa), Kaboul (Tottenham), Ivanovic (Chelsea)

Long term: Clyne (Southampton), Coloccini (Newcastle), A. Williams (Swansea), Wilson (Stoke), Davies (Hull), Chester (Hull), Kelly (CP), Ward (CP), Shawcross (Sunderland), Cahill (Che)

Midfielders
This week: Hazard (Che), Shelvey (Swansea), Bentaleb (Tottenham), Schneiderlin (Southampton)
Alternates: Ince (Hull), Fabregas (Che), Ward-Prose, Tadic (Southampton), Mata (Man U)

Long term: All listed Southampton midfielders above plus S. Davis, Wanyama, & Ramirez if you are feeling extra lucky, Ince (Hull), Fabregas, Schurrle, Oscar (Che), Cabella (Newcastle), Mata, Fletcher, Young (Man U)

Forwards
This week: Adebayor (Tottenham), Costa (Chelsea)
Alternates: Bony (Swansea), Long (Southampton), Weimann (Aston Villa)

Long Term: Rooney (Man U), Jelavic (Hull), Gouffran (Newcastle), Berahino (WBA)

That's all I got, sorry a bit short on the strikers, but it what it is.

Steven Caulker doesn't fancy a tackle

It's not that the 22-year-old is poor at tackling, in fact his 63.8 career percentage is admirable, it's just not his style.  The one-time England international has clearly learned the game from former clubmates Ashley Williams and Ledley King.  Neither of those two were much of tacklers either, but both are/were considered capable defenders.  Caulker still has a way to go before he reaches the level of those two, but at least he's on the right path.

npg90	gc90	cc90	ap90	ccv	TTI90
0.09	0.11	0.27	0.03	9.1	8.1
pass%	bp%	sacc%	shot%	intp90	clrp90
83	22.8	31.3	10.5	1.39	8.47
drbp90	bs90	tp90	tack%	adw90	adw%
0.22	1.15	1.22	63.8	2.8	56.2
gsp90	gap90	gop90	tgop	gopd
1.12	1.56	-0.44	-0.25	-0.19

Stats definitions can be found here.

Those are his career stats from the last three Premier League seasons.  He spent 2011-12 on loan to Swansea, where he paired with Williams, 2012-13 at Spurs, and in the summer of 2013, Tottenham sold him to Cardiff.  Three years, three different clubs, and next season he'll be at either QPR or Liverpool, but is he worth buying?

The thing about Caulker is that he was a much better player in his season with the Spurs than at either Welsh club.  He set career highs in goals and assists per 90 minutes played, successful passing, tackling, and shot accuracy percentage, true turnover index per 90 minutes played, interceptions and clearances per 90 minutes played in that campaign.  A couple were particularly impressive, his 89.7% successful pass percentage with only a 27.8% back pass percentage is outstanding and his 4.3 true turnover rate is one of the best I've ever seen.  I can only imagine how impressive his numbers would be if he came to Liverpool.

Probably his most commendable career stat is his 0.22 dribbled past per 90 minutes. If his 0.26 drbp90 from last season at relegated Cardiff, which would have been second to only Skrtel among Liverpool centre backs, doesn't impress, his 0.06 drbp90 in his season at Tottenham is mind-blowing.  Again, that is a number  so low, I'm pretty confident I have never seen anything like it.  For perspective, Lovren posted a 0.48 drbp90 last season at Southampton, that would have been worst among Liverpool centre backs last season, even behind the 0.44 put up by 'Ole Man' Toure.

If we can get Caulker for the £8m that QPR apparently bid (and was accepted), by all means we should sign him.  Even £10m is an acceptable amount.  He is right-footed and will give Skrtel a run for his money, not to mention the Slovak and Agger are both 29-years-old and not getting any younger.  If Sakho shows improvement and adapts better to the English game next season, he and Caulker would be a force hard to reckon with for years to come.

Post-Suarez Liverpool will not 'collapse' like post-Bale Spurs

There has been a lot of speculation that what happened to the Spurs last season after Bale left for Real Madrid could be what awaits Liverpool now that Suarez is gone, but that's highly unlikely.  First and foremost, the Spurs 'collapse' was not just due to Bale's exit, but a massive roster changeover that saw seven important players replaced.  Villas-Boas essentially started with a new club and unlike Bale's final season with Spurs, Tottenham started the 2013-14 season on the grace of fortune.

They won their first two matches, at Palace and home against Swans, 1-0, both via penalty converted by Robert Soldado.  Then a loss at Emirates was followed by an unimpressive 2-0 win at White Hart Lane over Norwich City and a 1-0 win at Cardiff that despite 12 shots on goal, required 93' heroics by Paulinho to seal the victory.  They sat 2nd on the table, though undeservedly, when they next welcomed Chelsea, only managing a 1-1 draw despite going ahead in the 19th minute and having a man advantage after Torres was sent off for a second yellow in the 81st.

They still sat 2nd, but the 3-0 thrashing by the Hammers at White Hart Lane that followed revealed their biggest weakness, their inability to convert goal scoring opportunities.  Despite dominating possession, having a passing success rate of 83%, and 14 shots (4 on goal), Spurs could not put the ball in the back of the net.  Last season they were 11th in the league with 9.4% shot conversion rate and a chance created value of 7.5%, 15th in the league.  Roberto Soldado, the player they brought in to make up for Bale's goal-scoring absence, only scored 6 goals the entire campaign and 4 of those were pens.

Though Spurs managed to garner 7 points in the next three matches (@Villa, Hull, & @Everton), they had yet to play City or Liverpool, who handed them 4 decimating losses with a staggering combined -19 goal difference.  Ironically, that same defence which let goals go in against the top two like ghosts trying to stop bullets, saved Tottenham from a disastrous year, only allowing 31 goals against the other 17 clubs in the remaining 34 fixtures.

So how much did Bale's loss play in their attacking downfall? In his last season, Bale scored 21 goals and managed 4 assists.  He was responsible for 31.8% of goals scored and 37.8% goals created.  The Welshman was also responsible for 17.1% of his side's chances created, but his 5.3% chance created value was far below Spurs' average. As a team, Spurs scored 11 more goals, 66 to 55, and allowed 5 less, 46 to 51. Their shot conversion rate of 9.7%, was only 0.3% better, but their chance created value of 8.8% exceeded their following season's effort by 1.3%.  For all his efforts though, Bale had only a goals on pitch difference of 0.06, which means essentially he gave Tottenham a +2 goal edge for the season.

The most indicative sign that it was the unfamiliarity of the group instead of the absence of one player that lead to their lack of productivity was their passing and drop in chances created value.  The Spurs' overall passing rate dropped from 83.1 to 81.8% and ccv fell from 8.8% to 7.5%.  They clearly had trouble breaking down the opposition defence and creating more easily converted chances as they only attempted 5% of their shots inside their opponent's box, 2nd worst in the league.

Suarez, much like Bale, was responsible for a large part of Liverpool's goal-scoring prowess last season.  His 31 goals and 13 assists were 30.7% of goals scored and 43.6% goals created.  His chance created value was 14.2%, second to only Sturridge and 1.3% better than the club rate. His goals on pitch difference was 1.49,  a +0.17 difference compared to Liverpool's average of 1.32.  Suarez was more important to Liverpool's attack than Bale, but Liverpool still has Sturridge, Sterling, and Gerrard, while Spurs also got rid of Defoe and Dempsey along with Bale.  Those three made up 59.1% of Spurs' goals and 75.8% of goals created, that's absurd.

Tottenham struggled through last season because they lost a majority of their attack and had to rely on a large group of players gelling quickly if they were going to improve from the previous campaign.  That rarely happens, but Spurs still only finished a place lower and three points off the previous season.  Liverpool have the luxury of returning most of their players and all of their important ones except Suarez, of course.  As I have written prior, if Liverpool play better defence and make smarter decisions on the ball, they don't need to make up for the absence of Suarez, we could have won the league last season with 20 less goals, had we not played such poor defence. No matter what, finishing a place lower and three points off next season will be disappointing, though unlike Villas-Boas, I doubt it will cost Rodgers his job.

Wilfried Bony: All is fair in love and transfers, Spurs

Wilfried Bony had a pretty impressive first year in England, more impressive than most who come over from the Eredivisie.  Suarez didn't have that kind of year, not even close, neither did Christian Eriksen, though he was relatively close.  The most impressive thing about Bony's season was how much he got better as the season progressed.  He scored 12 goals and set up 3 more in the final 19 Prem matches.  In fact, he scored 5 and had 1 assist in the final 4.

Latest reports are that we are trying to 'hijack' Spurs bid for Bony.  Well, if that's not tongue-in-cheek, Sigurdsson anyone? I am all for signing the 25-year-old Ivorian striker, but not for the reportedly £40m that Swansea is asking.  That truly is mental.  Anything more than £35m would be too much risk of funds.

So how does he compare to let's say Sturridge?

	Bony	Sturridge
app(subs)	27(7)	26(3)
mins	2470	2267
p90	27.4	25.2
goals	16	21
assist	4	7
chances	25	29
npgp90	0.44	0.83
gcp90	0.73	1.1
ccp90	0.91	1.2
ap90	0.15	0.28
ccv	16.5	23.3
pass%	74.1	79.3
bp%	49.6	53.4
sacc%	37	42.4
shot%	14.8	21.2
TTI90	15.3	11
gap90	1.5	1.23
gsp90	1.62	2.7
gop90	0.12	1.47
tgop	0	1.32

Stat definitions can be found here.

Sturridge takes nearly every category save back pass percentage, but Bony is not far off.  Not bad for a first year Prem player compared to a well seasoned one.  If history stays true to itself, Bony will have an even better second season now that he's adapted to the English game and way of lifestyle.  He'll post even more impressive numbers with teammates like Sturridge, Coutinho, Sterling, and Gerrard, a luxury he did not have in Swansea.

One thing he can forget about is taking pens.  He enjoyed the padding of his stats last season with four of them, for us he will be at least third in line behind Gerrard and Sturridge, with Coutinho probably getting the nod over him if the Brazilian is on the pitch.

Will his signing actually happen? I'm not holding my breathe, but if does, suck it Tottenham.

https://docs.google.com/uc?export=download&id=0B0oQNIr-YdiyVWVyY2t3T2R3VVE

Should we go after Dimitar Berbatov?

News out of White Hart Lane is that Dimitar Berbatov isn't happy and would like to go elsewhere come January. The 26-year-old striker has certainly lost his form of last year, managing to notch only a pair of goals in 14 matches. Last season he netted 23 in 49 total outings.

Fitness issues may have affected him at times, but for the most part this year his performances have been uninspiring. Comparing matches between this season and last, the Bulgarian International seems to lack the energy and creative spark he demonstrated in his debut season where he looked the threat nearly every time he had possession. In his defense though, he only scored four goals in his first dozen matches for the Spurs, but managed eleven in the final eighteen of last year's campaign. Maybe he just hasn't got it going yet.

Of course on the flip side of that argument is that he needed time to adjust to English football and once he did, well, his goal-scoring record speaks for itself. If that was the case then, how would one explain his recent dip in form? There were rumblings that he and Martin Jol weren't seeing eye-to-eye, but if that's the case, how's he going to react when he gets rotated-out of certain matches by Rafa? Neither Benitez nor senior members of the squad like Steven Gerrard and Jamie Carragher will tolerate such rubbish.

Another thing to think about is how a change of atmosphere could do him well, but if he had trouble handling the pressure at Tottenham, what's he going to do when the Scouser Nation become disenchanted? Ultimately I think it comes down to a risk-reward factor. I don't think it's wise to pay an exorbitant amount for a player who seems a bit inconsistent and possibly a head case, we already have plenty of those. If the Spurs would take Crouch and £10m, I'd say do it, but anything over £22m straight cash would be foolish. Let Chelsea take that kind of risk.