Will Liverpool 'throttle' Villa at Anfield? Will Lazar get off the 'Markovic'? Inquiring minds just exploded.

Liverpool are 13-7-5 in league matches at home versus Aston Villa since 1989, but only 1-2-2 in the last five seasons.  They went through a similar run from 1998 to 2003 when they also went 1-2-2.  Take away those two 'slumps', they are 11-3-1 the past 25 years.  Hopefully their current difficulty against the Birmingham club will come to an end after five matches as well.  The last time Liverpool finished 2nd, they lost to Villa at home the following season in the third round, a 1-3 defeat that featured a Lucas Leiva own goal, a rare Curtis Davies header, and a penalty awarded on a Gerrard foul, converted by Ashley Young.

Liverpool is 6-3-1 at home in round 4 EPL matches, their only loss being 2-1 at the hands of Tottenham 21 years ago, August 25, 1993.  A brace by Teddy 'the dirty Sheriff' Sheringham bettered an early clinical finish from new boy Nigel Clough.  The only other time they have ever met Villa in this scenario is 2000-01 with LFC prevailing 3-1.  A first half hat-trick from then 20-year-old and not yet loathed, Michael Owen, was all the home side needed.

Villa is 5-2-5 as visitors in the round four fixture in Prem history, not exactly push-overs.  In fact, they have never lost by more than a goal and have only allowed multiple goals in three of those 12 fixtures.  They've only allowed 3 goals once, an exciting clash with Spurs in 1997-98 that resulted in a 3-2 Tottenham win.  After falling behind 0-1 in the sixth minute, Dwight 'New York, New' Yorke equalized in the 27th minute and Stan 'less is' Collymore gave them the lead in the 68th, but Spurs came roaring back to win on a 77th goal from Ruel 'what the' Fox.

Finally, the previous season 2nd place finisher is 19-2-1 at home against the previous season 15th place finisher in Premier League history.  The only time a 15th has beaten a 2nd at home was in 1996-97, when Sheffield Wednesday overcame a 13th minute penalty from Alan Shearer to win 2-1.  Short-time Villa player and Pompey 'legend' Guy Whittingham scored the winning goal.  The home side in this fixture has won the last 11, outscoring the visitors by a whopping 28 to 4.  In fact, the host club has only allowed 8 goals in all 22 fixtures with 15 clean sheets and only once allowing multiple goals.  Liverpool has twice been involved and unfortunately was part of one of the draws, a 0-0 result versus Everton in 2002-03.

So what do all these numbers say?  Even without Sturridge and Villa's staunch record on the road in round four, Liverpool should prevail. I hope Rodgers gives Markovic a start and if he does, I fully expect him to get off the mark.  I'll go out on a limb and say Liverpool 3-0 with goals from Lazar, Balotelli, and Sterling.

Spurs 0, LFC 3: Five things learnt

1. Mamadou Sakho is a bad influence.
In the first two matches, Lovren was rarely caught out of position, but against Spurs it happened twice and Liverpool were lucky not to surrender a goal.  Sakho uses his athletic ability to cloak his 'bad' positioning, but Lovren doesn't have that luxury.  It was also the first match that the Croatian played on the right.

2. You shall not pass!
Tottenham dominated possession and were able to move around the ball quite freely, that is until they got close to Liverpool's box.  Spurs managed just 9 of 22 passes into the box, that was 1.9% of their passes completed and 0.4% attempted, resulting in only 3 chances created.  Liverpool, on the other hand, attempted just 10 passes into the box (2.8%), completing 4 (1.4%), creating a chance and another that lead to a goal.

3. Sometimes efficiency doesn't matter that much
Especially when you can be effective on the counter.  All three goals came on the counter and if we are able to 'build a fort' around the box, opponents will just get frustrated.  That should lead to even more counter opportunities as we take advantage of their errors and lack of equal pace. Here are the efficiency stats for each side:

	att	def	ovr
Tottenham	0.633	0.679	0.656
Liverpool	0.54	0.645	0.593

As you can see, Tottenham were superior, they just weren't able to take advantage of their chances.  That could have been due to Liverpool's defence or Spurs' incompetence.

4. Do I really have to start calculating 'forced back passes'?

Tottenham were forced to make 94 backward passes in Liverpool's third out of 121 completed overall.  They attempted 95 and 160 respectively, which means that 38 times the ball either went out of bounds or changed possession.  It also means they were only able to continue their forward attack on 27 passes.

5. Liverpool can play defence when they want to.

28 tackles, 14 interceptions, 45 clearances, and 2 blocked shots, that's quite a line.  Not to mention the clean sheet.  The good part is we can play better and will need to when we have to play the real contenders.  The moments of communication breakdown were quite evident versus Spurs and others will punish us for that.

Sturridge remains least efficient on Liverpool, N'Zogbia now worst overall

*Only players with 180 minutes played qualify.

Sturridge is still the least overall efficient player LFC player at 0.492.  He has averaged about 12 'give-aways' per match and a 78.1% pass completion percentage.  True strikers are always going to be 'middle of the pack' at best as they take more chances and are usually out-numbered in the final third. Jovetic is the highest rated and he's 71st in the league, Sturridge ranks 155th out of 191.  Goals don't matter much, even if Sturridge had scored 10 goals in the first three matches, his per would have only went up to 0.565, good for only 126th, which happens to be Alexis Sanchez' current ranking.

The ten worst overall per:

C. N'Zogbia	0.338
L. Jutkiewicz	0.355
M. Phillips	0.358
C. Wickham	0.361
M. Biram Diouf	0.390
Kieran Tripper	0.394
C. Cole	0.399
Loic Remy	0.409
Y. Bolasie	0.419
J. Schlupp	0.420

I didn't realize N'Zogbia still played  in the league, I also can't believe he's only 28.  Seems like he's been around forever.  Loic Remy was clearly unhappy at QPR, watch how miraculously his stats go up at Chelsea.  Not only because he got out of Loftus Road, but now he's got world class service from Fabregas & Co.

Liverpool has played hardest schedule, boasts best defence

Not being too pleased with defensive rating results after matches this past weekend, I decided to tweak my formula to consider strength of opponent.  Mainly I just wanted to make it so I could 'prove' Liverpool have been the best defensive side and that Man U are not as good as my ratings say.  Unfortunately, I could only manage the former.

Here are the most difficult schedules according to opponent's attack efficiency:

team	opp ape
Liverpool	0.66872
Leicester	0.65853
Burnley	0.65069
C Palace	0.62751
WBA	0.61973

I didn't even factor in home field advantage, which would more than likely pad Liverpool's lead at the top of the table considering they have played at City and at Spurs. In the end though, it is a non-factor since all clubs will have played each other home and away, but I will probably start factoring it in after match day five.

The least difficult schedules?

club	opp ape
Arsenal	0.52008
Hull City	0.53570
Chelsea	0.54696
Newcastle	0.55131
Tottenham	0.57160

Arsenal, far and away, have had the easiest walk in the park, but have only managed 5 points in 3 matches.  Is Hull relegation bound?  Their second half against Villa suggests not, but they still lost and their schedule just gets harder from here on out.

So here are the adjusted defensive rankings:

club	adj dpe
Liverpool	0.93203
Burnley	0.93190
Stoke	0.90287
Man U	0.87822
Leicester	0.87333

Burnley and Leicester are here on strength of schedule and the fact that two of their first three matches have been at home.  Stoke is apparently the real deal as they showed at City Saturday and Man U is basically here because they dominated two crap sides, only managing draws though, and lost to a somewhat decent Swansea attack.

Worst defences:

club	adj dpe
Aston Villa	0.798
Swansea	0.805
Hull City	0.806
Tottenham	0.810
Newcastle	0.816

Villa come to Anfield next and if LFC take them seriously, it should be a route.

Tottenham 0, Liverpool 3: Sometimes moments of madness...

They dominated possession, had a higher pass completion percentage, and were superior in the air, but Tottenham still limped away 3-0 losers.  How could this be? Counter attack and positioning.  All three of Liverpool goals were due to anticipating our opponent's movements and responding quickly.  That takes practice and talent, an ode to our mad Professor Rodgers.

What made it most impressive is that Gerrard had an uncharacteristically poor performance on attack, but made up for it on defence.  He completed just 71.1% of his passes, his lowest amount for a long time, but did have 3 tackles and 8 clearances.  Without some of those clearances, it may have been a closer match.

Gerrard's bi-polar display was quite indicative of many other LFC 'stars'.  Sterling was tremendous on the ball, scored a great goal, but his passing was poor (69.7%)and he really should have had scored from point blank range.  Lovren was impressive as well with 4 tackles, 2 interceptions, and 13 clearances, but his passing was also dreadful and he had to make two potential goal-saving tackles that were probably his fault to begin with.

Balotelli and Allen were not at their best, but Manquillo and Sturridge were the worst of the bunch.  The former was clearly rattled and wasted passes throughout, while the latter seemed to be trying to hard to make things happen.  I don't want to say he is trying to make up for the loss of Suarez, but he is, and it isn't working.  He's got to let the match come to him.

Henderson, Can, and Markovic played well, the last two in a cameo capacity.  I can't wait to see how the Serbian does in a full debut, he's very confident and smooth on the ball, which is entertaining to watch.  My man of the match though was Moreno, but not just because of his lung-bursting stunner.  He also added 4 tackles, 9 clearances, and a passing percentage of  87.1%, when others failed to post decent passing stats.

This was a must-win for several reasons, mostly for the confidence of the team and supporters.  If we can go into a place like White Hart Lane and not play to the best of our ability, but still come away with an impressive 3-0 win, just imagine who we can beat at our best.  Fortunately our next 12 fixtures are favorable, hopefully we'll win all of them and be at our confident best when Chelsea come to town November 8th.

Tottenham 0, Liverpool 1: thoughts on the 'fast' break

It's been quite an entertaining half, at least between the boxes.  Both sides seem to have had great build-ups in possession, but in so, neither seem to be able to create solid chances in the opposition's box.  All the potential goals and the solo goal have come on the counter.

Spurs dominated possession the first third of the match, but then Liverpool started to take control.  During Tottenham's seeming domination, the only goal came about on a tremendous effort by Henderson, who intercepted the initial ball and passed to Sturridge.  Studge, who isn't having the best of afternoons, played the ball into a streaking Henderson, who found Sterling brilliantly on a cross box pass.  Sterling slotted it in, leaving Spurs defence wondering what had just happened.

The quickness of the scoring string was indicative of Liverpool's play so far.  They set a precedent on pace and Spurs are struggling to keep it up.  If they want to play our style, we should be able to add a couple of more goals in the second.  If they slow it down, well, as long they cover the counter, this match is probably over as they are having trouble breaking the box playing that way.

As for individual performance, Sterling and Henderson are the cream of a rather mediocre crop.  Balotelli has played well, but he really should have a goal with chances like his header gone wide on the Gerrard free kick and that open goal when Lloris straggled out of the box.  Speaking of Gerrard, he's had a very up-and-down match, more down though, if he can calm down it will greatly increase our chances of three points.  On ward and (hopefully) upward...

Man City 1, Liverpool 0: Thoughts at the break

Until about five minutes to go, Liverpool were by far the better side.  One error then the walls come crumbling down and that was our problem last season.  We must maintain composure and regain the form we had in the first half when we were in control of the match.

I thought Coutinho looked better, but what do I know? Glen Johnson is still passing to ghosts, Joe Allen has been impressive for Joe Allen, but would like to see what Can can do.

There were some interesting calls though, the 'foul' on Henderson instead of a corner being the most obvious.

Blaming Moreno for that goal is just stupid, Jovetic sneaked up on him and knocked the ball his way.  It was a great goal from the player I actually picked to score first.

Will we be able to get back into this? Capability is without question, but unfortunately we can't take risks or City will make us pay.  Maybe it's Markovic time.  Let's see what our 'Zlatan' can do.

Impressive stats so far:
Gerrard       96% passing
Man City     1/20 on long balls