Lazar to get off the Markovic? Liverpool to win 6-0? What the markets say...

Aston Villa to win at 11/1 seems like a decent gamble and 45.92% of all bettors agree.  Looks like a sucker bet to me and Liverpool at 1/3 isn't worth the return.  5/1 for a draw seems to high, expect Liverpool to win.

To win:
Aston Villa	11/1	45.92%
Liverpool	1/3	43.78%
Draw	5/1	10.30%

A lot of people seem to think Sterling will be the first to score and there's a nice pay off if they're right, but if I was a betting man, I'd go with Balotelli or even Gerrard.  Hopefully someone doesn't bet on Studge.

First goalscorer:
Sterling	6/1	39.02%
Balotelli	15/4	24.39%
Weimann	16/1	7.32%
Gerrard	8/1	4.88%
Coutinho	10/1	4.88%
Markovic	7/1
Lambert	7/2
Agbonlahor	14/1
Borini	6/1
Henderson	10/1
Sturridge	14/5

The market is giving Aston Villa much of a chance when it comes to the final tally.  The lowest odds for the visiting side to win is 1-0 and that's at 25/1.  Liverpool at 12/1 for 4-0 looks intriguing and a tiny wager on 6-0 at 50/1 wouldn't hurt.  Apparently most bettors think Villa will double their average goals per a match and score twice against Liverpool.  It's possible, just not very probable.  

Correct score:
Liverpool	4-2	40/1	13.89%
Liverpool	3-0	17/2	11.11%
Liverpool	3-1	11/1	8.33%
Liverpool	2-0	6/1
Liverpool	4-0	12/1
Liverpool	5-0	25/1
Liverpool	6-0	50/1

Bettors overwhelmingly think Balotelli will score at some point in the match and the 19/20 pay off shows it.  Even Markovic with a 21/10 return is not that great off odds.  Henderson at 4/1 or Lovren at 6/1 look like good wagers to me.

Anytime scorer:
Balotelli	19/20	71.43%
Lambert	6/5	9.52%
Bent	6/1	4.76%
Henderson	4/1
Lovren	6/1
Markovic	21/10

Balotelli to score 3 is awfully low at 20/1 and there's a great pay-off if either Markovic gets hot or free-kicks and penalties come into play for Gerrard.

Score hat-trick:
Balotelli	20/1
Markovic	80/1
Gerrard	50/1

Balotelli to score a brace is not that great of a payoff either, Markovic and Gerrard seem most likely again but the return is much less.  Henderson at 25/1 here seems like a decent wager.

Two or more goals:
Balotelli	9/2
Markovic	14/1
Gerrard	12/1

Bettors and bookmakers agree that Sterling will be Man of the Match, but since the pay-off isn't that great and there usually isn't much money bet on these kind of perks, it could happen.  Vlaar at 22/1 though, yeah, good luck.  The best bet is probably Balotelli at 6/1, but I like Henderson at 12/1 and Markovic as a long shot at 14/1 though the return isn't that great.

Man of the match:
Sterling	4/1	37.50%
Vlaar	22/1	25.00%
Balotelli	6/1
Gerrard	4/1
Henderson	12/1
Markovic	14/1

Finally, who do you think will most likely get shown a card?  Yeah, me too, and at 3/1 he isn't even the favorite.  Hutton and Lucas are, which isn't that surprising.

Shown a card:
Balotelli	3/1
Hutton	7/4
Lucas	7/4

The Villan to watch out for on Saturday

Aston Villa is a dreadful, mundane side.  Currently they rank as the third worst attacking side and are second worst on defence, so how have they managed seven points in their first three matches?  Well, other than being quite fortuitous, they rely heavily on their five best players setting up shop in front of the net.

The Birmingham club lives and dies by the performances and defensive cohesiveness of Guzan, Senderos, Vlaar, Westwood, and Delph.  Vlaar is the heart while Delph is the engine and Westwood is the brains of the operation.  Senderos is there just to take care of the leftovers and Guzan is the mouth, his job is to keep everyone talking.  So if you want to stop Villa from initiating attack, take Westwood out of the picture.  If Westwood can't get the ball out to Richardson or N'Zogbia or is unable to break into the Liverpool's third by himself, the Villans will curl up and die a slow death.  Delph will occasionally make a dangerous run forward, but that leaves his side thoroughly exposed on the counter, something in which Liverpool are quite adept, so he'll probably be cautious to do so on Saturday.

For Liverpool to score, they are going to have to penetrate the invisible fortress maintained by the five aforementioned Villa players.  Our best bet is to have Sterling or Coutinho or Markovic or even Suso bring the ball up on the left and go straight at Alan Hutton, if he's not already behind them after a futile attempt at defence or attack.  They are going to have to draw out Senderos and pass the ball back across in the middle to whomever is rushing forward or, God forbid, play the cross game, attempting cross after cross hoping to find Balotelli or Lambert in a welcomed spot in the box.  The latter isn't really Rodger's approach so hopefully we won't resort to such mindless Van Gaalish/'European' tactics.

Villa will rely more on Delph's athleticism to stop Liverpool's attack, which means Westwood will be relied even more on attack.  I highly doubt he'll score, but he is their best 'specialized' passer, though no where near the class of a Gerrard.  Still Liverpool need to respect his abilities and with Skrtel out, hopefully Sakho won't make too many of his runs into the opponent's half.  Lucas cannot continue his horrible form so far this season either, but at least he's more likely to stay back.  In the end. I think Liverpool will prevail, but a nice old fashion whipping would be a much-needed comfort.

Will Liverpool 'throttle' Villa at Anfield? Will Lazar get off the 'Markovic'? Inquiring minds just exploded.

Liverpool are 13-7-5 in league matches at home versus Aston Villa since 1989, but only 1-2-2 in the last five seasons.  They went through a similar run from 1998 to 2003 when they also went 1-2-2.  Take away those two 'slumps', they are 11-3-1 the past 25 years.  Hopefully their current difficulty against the Birmingham club will come to an end after five matches as well.  The last time Liverpool finished 2nd, they lost to Villa at home the following season in the third round, a 1-3 defeat that featured a Lucas Leiva own goal, a rare Curtis Davies header, and a penalty awarded on a Gerrard foul, converted by Ashley Young.

Liverpool is 6-3-1 at home in round 4 EPL matches, their only loss being 2-1 at the hands of Tottenham 21 years ago, August 25, 1993.  A brace by Teddy 'the dirty Sheriff' Sheringham bettered an early clinical finish from new boy Nigel Clough.  The only other time they have ever met Villa in this scenario is 2000-01 with LFC prevailing 3-1.  A first half hat-trick from then 20-year-old and not yet loathed, Michael Owen, was all the home side needed.

Villa is 5-2-5 as visitors in the round four fixture in Prem history, not exactly push-overs.  In fact, they have never lost by more than a goal and have only allowed multiple goals in three of those 12 fixtures.  They've only allowed 3 goals once, an exciting clash with Spurs in 1997-98 that resulted in a 3-2 Tottenham win.  After falling behind 0-1 in the sixth minute, Dwight 'New York, New' Yorke equalized in the 27th minute and Stan 'less is' Collymore gave them the lead in the 68th, but Spurs came roaring back to win on a 77th goal from Ruel 'what the' Fox.

Finally, the previous season 2nd place finisher is 19-2-1 at home against the previous season 15th place finisher in Premier League history.  The only time a 15th has beaten a 2nd at home was in 1996-97, when Sheffield Wednesday overcame a 13th minute penalty from Alan Shearer to win 2-1.  Short-time Villa player and Pompey 'legend' Guy Whittingham scored the winning goal.  The home side in this fixture has won the last 11, outscoring the visitors by a whopping 28 to 4.  In fact, the host club has only allowed 8 goals in all 22 fixtures with 15 clean sheets and only once allowing multiple goals.  Liverpool has twice been involved and unfortunately was part of one of the draws, a 0-0 result versus Everton in 2002-03.

So what do all these numbers say?  Even without Sturridge and Villa's staunch record on the road in round four, Liverpool should prevail. I hope Rodgers gives Markovic a start and if he does, I fully expect him to get off the mark.  I'll go out on a limb and say Liverpool 3-0 with goals from Lazar, Balotelli, and Sterling.