Liverpool are 13-7-5 in league matches at home versus Aston Villa since 1989, but only 1-2-2 in the last five seasons. They went through a similar run from 1998 to 2003 when they also went 1-2-2. Take away those two 'slumps', they are 11-3-1 the past 25 years. Hopefully their current difficulty against the Birmingham club will come to an end after five matches as well. The last time Liverpool finished 2nd, they lost to Villa at home the following season in the third round, a 1-3 defeat that featured a Lucas Leiva own goal, a rare Curtis Davies header, and a penalty awarded on a Gerrard foul, converted by Ashley Young.
Liverpool is 6-3-1 at home in round 4 EPL matches, their only loss being 2-1 at the hands of Tottenham 21 years ago, August 25, 1993. A brace by Teddy 'the dirty Sheriff' Sheringham bettered an early clinical finish from new boy Nigel Clough. The only other time they have ever met Villa in this scenario is 2000-01 with LFC prevailing 3-1. A first half hat-trick from then 20-year-old and not yet loathed, Michael Owen, was all the home side needed.
Villa is 5-2-5 as visitors in the round four fixture in Prem history, not exactly push-overs. In fact, they have never lost by more than a goal and have only allowed multiple goals in three of those 12 fixtures. They've only allowed 3 goals once, an exciting clash with Spurs in 1997-98 that resulted in a 3-2 Tottenham win. After falling behind 0-1 in the sixth minute, Dwight 'New York, New' Yorke equalized in the 27th minute and Stan 'less is' Collymore gave them the lead in the 68th, but Spurs came roaring back to win on a 77th goal from Ruel 'what the' Fox.
Finally, the previous season 2nd place finisher is 19-2-1 at home against the previous season 15th place finisher in Premier League history. The only time a 15th has beaten a 2nd at home was in 1996-97, when Sheffield Wednesday overcame a 13th minute penalty from Alan Shearer to win 2-1. Short-time Villa player and Pompey 'legend' Guy Whittingham scored the winning goal. The home side in this fixture has won the last 11, outscoring the visitors by a whopping 28 to 4. In fact, the host club has only allowed 8 goals in all 22 fixtures with 15 clean sheets and only once allowing multiple goals. Liverpool has twice been involved and unfortunately was part of one of the draws, a 0-0 result versus Everton in 2002-03.
So what do all these numbers say? Even without Sturridge and Villa's staunch record on the road in round four, Liverpool should prevail. I hope Rodgers gives Markovic a start and if he does, I fully expect him to get off the mark. I'll go out on a limb and say Liverpool 3-0 with goals from Lazar, Balotelli, and Sterling.
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