It has officially become a two horse race. Sure, Spurs, Chelsea, and even the Gunners could go on a run, but in the end, it will take a significant collapse by City and LFC to allow those clubs back in the hunt for the PL title. Probably not going to happen. City is on pace to bank 104 points, while LFC is on track for 99, neither will probably end up with those totals, but it is most likely safe to say they will end up one and two. The greatest factor is, barring injuries, the remaining schedule.
I cannot stand when people try to claim that strength of schedule is not a factor in the PL. Yes, every team plays one another twice, once at home and once on the road, but when these matches are played is very important as well. It is better to play tougher opponents earlier in the schedule or after rest periods, especially away. Almost any opponent on the road is going to be tough as it is.
So far this season, City has played seven out of fifteen matches on the road. Liverpool have only played eight, but it is still one more match that they are more likely to get 3 points. City has played Arsenal, Tottenham, and LFC away, earning an impressive 7 points, with the only non-win being at Anfield. They were lucky to play the Gunners on the opening round, now I doubt they would have gotten away with a similar 2-0 result since Arsenal has improved significantly. That is also a factor, some clubs get better as the season progressives and Arsenal, Everton, Brighton, Newcastle, and West Ham have all showed improvement since the beginning. This also means that City have yet to play at Chelsea and United, which I'm hoping the latter is actually a contest. I don't think I have ever cheered United on, it will be painful, but I have to do so if I hope for the league title. Liverpool have played at Spurs, Chelsea, and at Gunners, earning 5 points. They had the misfortune of playing an improved Gunners side in week 11 and honestly, they were lucky to come away with a point.
Neither LFC nor City have played any significant opponents at home other than themselves at Anfield, so those fixtures are probably must wins for the Reds if they have any aspirations to win the league. City have yet to host Liverpool, which has to be considered the most important fixture left. A win would be monumental, but a draw is probably the best to hope for. They play on January 3rd.
If we look at remaining fixtures, who has the tougher schedule? The hardest fixtures left for Liverpool are home to United (12/16), at City (1/3), at United (2/23), at Everton (2/3), home to Spurs (4/6), and home to Chelsea (4/13). City has at Chelsea (12/8), home to LFC (1/3), home to Arsenal (2/2), home to Chelsea (2/9), at Everton (2/23), at United (3/16), and home to Spurs (4/20). That leaves Liverpool with one less 'hardest' fixture and a potential six point swing, though that is optimistic.
Between the two sides, City really only have the only bad result with a draw at Wolves, so lets look at the potential 'upsets'. Liverpool very well could lose or concede points at Bournemouth in two days (they are sixth in the league after all), at West Ham (2/2),at Wolves (12/21), and at Newcastle (5/4). I highly doubt points will be lost at Newcastle, but karma (Rafa) may come into play. City have home to Everton (12/15), at Newcastle (1/29), and at Bournemouth (3/2). Liverpool have it a little rougher with these mid-table/trending fixtures, but we are really only talking maybe a two-point margin.
Finally, the other onerous factor is schedule congestion with regards to opponent strength. City has to play at Chelsea, Leicester, and Southampton, and home to Everton, CP, Liverpool in a 35 day period between 1/8 and 2/3. They play their toughest matches first (at Chelsea) and last (home to Liverpool), with only one 'challenging' in between (at Everton). Meanwhile, LFC have to play away to Bournemouth, Wolverhampton, and City, and at home to United, Newcastle, and Arsenal. Liverpool clearly have a tougher schedule during this period.
There is also Champions League, FA Cup, and League Cup fixtures to consider, but based on just the PL schedule, Liverpool have a slight advantage though it will take a at least one significant upset on City's part and a perfect LFC run to win the league. I don't want to say anything is impossible though.
Showing posts with label Premier League. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Premier League. Show all posts
Thursday, December 6, 2018
Saturday, November 1, 2014
Newcastle 1, Liverpool 0: Rodgers should be on thin ice
It's getting old. We are not good enough to challenge for even a Champions league spot and that's becoming more apparent by the match. Bad buy after bad buy has made a mockery of what we had last year and it has nothing to do with what we lost, but more with what Rodgers has failed to bring in.
For all those Suarez apologists, take note of Barcelona's record since he's been eligible. They have lost both matches if you don't understand what I'm getting at. Also take note of what I've said, posted, and proven, that Suarez contributed just one measly meaningful assist last season and not a single goal he scored ended up being significant. Don't believe me? Prove me wrong, I researched that to the death and know it's the truth.
We should have bought the players that Southampton bought instead of the ones we bought from them. I've stated that before though. Lallana and Lambert are Championship level players and they've proven it over and over again this season. We should have bought Tadic, Pelle, and Mane, but no, instead we bought a disco dancer and an old man. Great job, Rodgers, also, way to go on Balotelli, who's nothing more than a lazy, self-serving loser who will never understand how to be greater than himself.
Today's loss just further exemplified why Liverpool will never return to days of old. Say goodbye to Sterling because he's gone after this season. Why would he stick around and be criticized for being a 19-year-old who can't carry a club? He sees how fans ridicule Markovic and the Serbian is only a year older. It's not his fault we wasted millions on Adam Lallana and Rickie Lambert instead of inventive, pace-endowed players. I would leave too and would try to get Coutinho to follow.
Our Premier League season is over, might as well accept that. It will be a miracle if we finish in the top five and with Champions League looking bleak as well, we might as well hope in pray for the League or FA Cup. Love those 'accepting we're second-rate' celebrations.
As for the match today, well, we were horrid. Very few positives came from it. Even Gerrard had an off-day and I have a hard time saying anyone played 'well'. The only positive that I can draw from it was that they needed an error and a little luck to get the goal and win, but that's becoming commonplace lately. We can play great defence for 89 minutes and 59 seconds, but that one second does us in.
I've said it once and I'll scream it from the rafters, we are a mid-table side as long as Joe Allen is a major contributor. That pretty much says it all.
For all those Suarez apologists, take note of Barcelona's record since he's been eligible. They have lost both matches if you don't understand what I'm getting at. Also take note of what I've said, posted, and proven, that Suarez contributed just one measly meaningful assist last season and not a single goal he scored ended up being significant. Don't believe me? Prove me wrong, I researched that to the death and know it's the truth.
We should have bought the players that Southampton bought instead of the ones we bought from them. I've stated that before though. Lallana and Lambert are Championship level players and they've proven it over and over again this season. We should have bought Tadic, Pelle, and Mane, but no, instead we bought a disco dancer and an old man. Great job, Rodgers, also, way to go on Balotelli, who's nothing more than a lazy, self-serving loser who will never understand how to be greater than himself.
Today's loss just further exemplified why Liverpool will never return to days of old. Say goodbye to Sterling because he's gone after this season. Why would he stick around and be criticized for being a 19-year-old who can't carry a club? He sees how fans ridicule Markovic and the Serbian is only a year older. It's not his fault we wasted millions on Adam Lallana and Rickie Lambert instead of inventive, pace-endowed players. I would leave too and would try to get Coutinho to follow.
Our Premier League season is over, might as well accept that. It will be a miracle if we finish in the top five and with Champions League looking bleak as well, we might as well hope in pray for the League or FA Cup. Love those 'accepting we're second-rate' celebrations.
As for the match today, well, we were horrid. Very few positives came from it. Even Gerrard had an off-day and I have a hard time saying anyone played 'well'. The only positive that I can draw from it was that they needed an error and a little luck to get the goal and win, but that's becoming commonplace lately. We can play great defence for 89 minutes and 59 seconds, but that one second does us in.
I've said it once and I'll scream it from the rafters, we are a mid-table side as long as Joe Allen is a major contributor. That pretty much says it all.
Saturday, October 25, 2014
Liverpool 0, Hull City 0: Five things learnt
1. Joe Allen isn't championship material.
Well, he would be great in the Championship, but Liverpool will never win anything starting him. He's good for a mid-table club, but if we are going to be serious contenders, we need players who can take us to that level. I like Joe Allen and think he's about as good as he can be, but it still isn't good enough. Seriously, would he be anything but a reserve at Chelsea or Man City?
2. We can play defense.
Hull is not a top five side, but they are far from the relegation discussion. They are capable of scoring goals, but today, even with Ben Harfa starting they were hardly a threat. I just hope this positive, one of the few we can take from the match, is a trend for the future. Still, I think Skrtel and Lovren went too far forward at times and that will hurt us against better clubs.
3. Balotelli is useless as the lone striker/forward.
The game tilted completely in Liverpool's favor once Lambert came on. Prior to that, Sterling and Balo tried to team up, but it just wasn't working as Sterling wants to stay on the flanks and it appears to confuse the Italian. Lambert may be the perfect companion for Balo as his passing ability gives Super Mario chance after chance. The problem is the 32-year-old lacks the ability to be effective more than 30 minutes on the pitch so using him as a 60 minute sub is our best bet, unfortunately that means an hour of watching Balotelli play defence.
4. Coutinho is a highly effective second half sub.
He was gangbusters when he came on today and was the major catalyst in giving us a chance to win. If only Balotelli would have converted that last second goal...
5. Manquillo is better than Glen Johnson.
If you didn't know that by now, then give it up. Johnson turns over the ball consistently and can't play defence while Manquillo is a positive force on both sides of the ball. At least when the Spaniard makes mistakes we can cough it up to youth, Glen Johnson is just rubbish. Sell him in the transfer window, Rodgers... if anyone will take him.
Well, he would be great in the Championship, but Liverpool will never win anything starting him. He's good for a mid-table club, but if we are going to be serious contenders, we need players who can take us to that level. I like Joe Allen and think he's about as good as he can be, but it still isn't good enough. Seriously, would he be anything but a reserve at Chelsea or Man City?
2. We can play defense.
Hull is not a top five side, but they are far from the relegation discussion. They are capable of scoring goals, but today, even with Ben Harfa starting they were hardly a threat. I just hope this positive, one of the few we can take from the match, is a trend for the future. Still, I think Skrtel and Lovren went too far forward at times and that will hurt us against better clubs.
3. Balotelli is useless as the lone striker/forward.
The game tilted completely in Liverpool's favor once Lambert came on. Prior to that, Sterling and Balo tried to team up, but it just wasn't working as Sterling wants to stay on the flanks and it appears to confuse the Italian. Lambert may be the perfect companion for Balo as his passing ability gives Super Mario chance after chance. The problem is the 32-year-old lacks the ability to be effective more than 30 minutes on the pitch so using him as a 60 minute sub is our best bet, unfortunately that means an hour of watching Balotelli play defence.
4. Coutinho is a highly effective second half sub.
He was gangbusters when he came on today and was the major catalyst in giving us a chance to win. If only Balotelli would have converted that last second goal...
5. Manquillo is better than Glen Johnson.
If you didn't know that by now, then give it up. Johnson turns over the ball consistently and can't play defence while Manquillo is a positive force on both sides of the ball. At least when the Spaniard makes mistakes we can cough it up to youth, Glen Johnson is just rubbish. Sell him in the transfer window, Rodgers... if anyone will take him.
Saturday, September 27, 2014
Five Things Learnt: Lallana is a sorcerer, not a magician
1. Lallana has apparently put a spell on most LFC fans. I have never been more shocked and ashamed by my fellow Reds supporters than today. Adam Lallana voted as Man of the Match? Why? Someone please give me a rational, logical explanation with examples and statistics. Gerrard, Henderson, Sterling, Lovren, Moreno, Manquillo, and Skrtel were all more deserving. Markovic is six years his senior and has never played 'English' football, though he wasn't much worse than the Prince of St. Albans. Seriously, is it the Anglo-Saxon halo that is blinding you?
2. Balotelli is a match away from being rubbished. Or at least he should be. Super Mario was all but and it's becoming more apparent with each match that he either doesn't want/understand/care to play our style of football. He stands around doing nothing, thinks he'll be able to perform magic once he gets the ball, and then looks like a donkey when he does. I think he forgot how much faster and more physical the EPL is compared to Serie A. He'll be longing to return to Italy soon enough.
3. Henderson's passing is becoming unparalleled. Some of his passes in the first half I have only seen the likes of from one Steven George Gerrard. Brilliant stuff. I am not a huge Hendo fan, but if he continues to move the ball around like he did today, it's only a matter of time. Not to mention he has all-round skills with an engine that never quits. The only issue I have with him is that he gets too excited and still let's his age show by turning the ball over, taking a bad shot, making a bad tackle, etc.
4, We can play defence. We held Everton to just a goal and it was a lucky one at that. Coming in the Blues had scored at least two goals in every previous EPL match. Lovren and Skrtel appeared to get along and neither went forward too often, but even when they did, they would dump the ball then get back. Everton actually had more possession and a free-flowing ball moment until they got close to the 18-yard area, then they got shut down.
5. Gerrard still has it. Though I'd still give Man of the Match to Hendo for his all-round performance, Stevie-G silenced his critics with an outstanding show. The free kick was just the icing on the cake as his passing was world class, not to mention he added three successful tackles and three clearances to his tally. He's far from done.
2. Balotelli is a match away from being rubbished. Or at least he should be. Super Mario was all but and it's becoming more apparent with each match that he either doesn't want/understand/care to play our style of football. He stands around doing nothing, thinks he'll be able to perform magic once he gets the ball, and then looks like a donkey when he does. I think he forgot how much faster and more physical the EPL is compared to Serie A. He'll be longing to return to Italy soon enough.
3. Henderson's passing is becoming unparalleled. Some of his passes in the first half I have only seen the likes of from one Steven George Gerrard. Brilliant stuff. I am not a huge Hendo fan, but if he continues to move the ball around like he did today, it's only a matter of time. Not to mention he has all-round skills with an engine that never quits. The only issue I have with him is that he gets too excited and still let's his age show by turning the ball over, taking a bad shot, making a bad tackle, etc.
4, We can play defence. We held Everton to just a goal and it was a lucky one at that. Coming in the Blues had scored at least two goals in every previous EPL match. Lovren and Skrtel appeared to get along and neither went forward too often, but even when they did, they would dump the ball then get back. Everton actually had more possession and a free-flowing ball moment until they got close to the 18-yard area, then they got shut down.
5. Gerrard still has it. Though I'd still give Man of the Match to Hendo for his all-round performance, Stevie-G silenced his critics with an outstanding show. The free kick was just the icing on the cake as his passing was world class, not to mention he added three successful tackles and three clearances to his tally. He's far from done.
Liverpool 1, Everton 1: The Toffees have won the league!
Liverpool took a step in the right direction today, whether it was baby steps or a Neil Armstrong leap, we'll have to wait and see, but at least some of our issues of late look to have been addressed. First, we played much better defense. We shut down Everton nearly every opportunity that arose, especially when they tried to infiltrate the box. It was more or less written in stone that the Blues would have to score from outside the area and of course, they did. It doesn't take away from a valiant effort of defending, holding Everton to a single luck goal is an admirable achievement considering they've scored at least two goals in every other Prem match they've played.
It is also quite evident Rodgers gave his boys full permission to fire away though he should have taken that privilege from Balotelli after the half. We took 24 shots, 10 from Balotelli alone, though only 8 were on-target. A different story than Middlesbrough on Tuesday when we only took 11 shots in regulation. Being a constant threat from anywhere around the goal opened lanes, allowing us easier access for runs and passes into the box.
As for individual performances, Jordan Henderson made some world class passes in the first half reminiscent of his captain. He also created four chances, had five tackles, three interceptions, and completed 91% of his passes. Sterling was outstanding as well, creating six chances and successful on five take-ons. Gerrard put on a clinic in passing, completing 91%, going 3 for 4 on crosses and 7 for 8 on long balls, not to mention that class free kick goal. Moreno, Lovren, Skrtel, Manquillo, and Coutinho all played well as well.
The not-so-good starts with Lallana. How can anyone call that a great performance? He did little else other than dribble the ball and tackle out-of-bounds, take the Anglo-Saxon halo off his head and he'd been booed off the pitch for being a 26-year-old Championship quality player. He is paid to create goals and he had nothing to do with it today. Markovic was woeful as well, but first, he's 20-years-old, this is his first season playing Engliish football, and go back and look at the service he got, very few players in the world could have done anything with some of those passes. I'm also not so sure he's comfortable in his role in the side, he's a winger, where he played a lot of the match, but it looked like Rodgers wanted him to play a more central, 'hole' position, which he looked uncomfortable and out-of-place when he did.
Finally, we get to Mr. Balotelli. What a crock match from him. When Sturridge comes back, we won't see a better Balotelli, we probably will hardly see him at all. At least not for a while. Benching him, making him a super sub and forcing him to play his way back into the side is probably best for all. Make him learn his role the hard way. A couple of those things he needs to learn is making runs and creating space. When he's being marked, he seems to always just stand in the middle of the box, instead of moving about to allow other players to make runs or shoot. Also, he needs to work on his timing, Markovic made the only decent run all day. We could do with less of the antics as well.
This match reminded me of a few years ago when we would dominate matches, but were unable to score much and our opponents would get a wonder goal to win or draw. The Champions league Marseille match when Valbuena scored that amazing curlier from outside of the box for the win comes to mind. There were definite improvements all-round today and we are on the right track, but we can't let a luck goal knock us off our rail and distract us from our objectives. We go to Basel on Wednesday and if he's not back by then, Sturridge should be ready for West Brom next Saturday.
It is also quite evident Rodgers gave his boys full permission to fire away though he should have taken that privilege from Balotelli after the half. We took 24 shots, 10 from Balotelli alone, though only 8 were on-target. A different story than Middlesbrough on Tuesday when we only took 11 shots in regulation. Being a constant threat from anywhere around the goal opened lanes, allowing us easier access for runs and passes into the box.
As for individual performances, Jordan Henderson made some world class passes in the first half reminiscent of his captain. He also created four chances, had five tackles, three interceptions, and completed 91% of his passes. Sterling was outstanding as well, creating six chances and successful on five take-ons. Gerrard put on a clinic in passing, completing 91%, going 3 for 4 on crosses and 7 for 8 on long balls, not to mention that class free kick goal. Moreno, Lovren, Skrtel, Manquillo, and Coutinho all played well as well.
The not-so-good starts with Lallana. How can anyone call that a great performance? He did little else other than dribble the ball and tackle out-of-bounds, take the Anglo-Saxon halo off his head and he'd been booed off the pitch for being a 26-year-old Championship quality player. He is paid to create goals and he had nothing to do with it today. Markovic was woeful as well, but first, he's 20-years-old, this is his first season playing Engliish football, and go back and look at the service he got, very few players in the world could have done anything with some of those passes. I'm also not so sure he's comfortable in his role in the side, he's a winger, where he played a lot of the match, but it looked like Rodgers wanted him to play a more central, 'hole' position, which he looked uncomfortable and out-of-place when he did.
Finally, we get to Mr. Balotelli. What a crock match from him. When Sturridge comes back, we won't see a better Balotelli, we probably will hardly see him at all. At least not for a while. Benching him, making him a super sub and forcing him to play his way back into the side is probably best for all. Make him learn his role the hard way. A couple of those things he needs to learn is making runs and creating space. When he's being marked, he seems to always just stand in the middle of the box, instead of moving about to allow other players to make runs or shoot. Also, he needs to work on his timing, Markovic made the only decent run all day. We could do with less of the antics as well.
This match reminded me of a few years ago when we would dominate matches, but were unable to score much and our opponents would get a wonder goal to win or draw. The Champions league Marseille match when Valbuena scored that amazing curlier from outside of the box for the win comes to mind. There were definite improvements all-round today and we are on the right track, but we can't let a luck goal knock us off our rail and distract us from our objectives. We go to Basel on Wednesday and if he's not back by then, Sturridge should be ready for West Brom next Saturday.
Match Week VI Fantasy Picks: Is Gerrard the darkest of dark horse picks?
Plenty of players to choose from with weak opponents on the road this week. Chelsea is by far the best of them though. Fabregas and Hazard will tear Aston Villa to shreds with Costa probably reaping most of the rewards. United host West Ham and Southampton get a visit from QPR, so players from those sides should bring in the points. Liverpool will score goals, yes plural, but whether or not they will be able to top Everton from doing so is a crap shoot. There are a lot of 'tweeners, teams that have a good chance of scoring goals and accruing fantasy points, but there's risk involved. Sunderland, West Brom, and Stoke fit that bill.
Courtois
De Gea
Forster
Dark horse: Tim Howard (he'll make a lot of saves, whether that offsets goals allowed is the risk)
Dead horse: Asmir Begovic (best keeper with best defense... deja vu)
Long term: Forster, Schmeichel, Begovic
Defenders
Clyne
Ivanovic
Rojo
Shawcross
Dark horses: Lovren, Van Aanholt, Fonte, Rafael
Dead horses: Lescott, Pieters, Chambers, Terry
Long Term: Bertrand, De Laet, Moreno, Rojo
Midfielders
Schniederlin
Hazard
Di Maria
Sterling
Fabregas
Dark Horses: Gerrard, Matic, Barry, Dorrans
Dead Horses: Larrson, Tadic, Moses, Blind
Long Term: Schniederlin, Cambiasso, Di Maria, Sterling
Forwards
Costa
Pelle
Rooney
Falcao
Berahino
Dark Horse: Van Persie, Crouch, Diouf
Dead Horse: Balotelli, Lukaku
Long Term: Rooney, Falcao, Pelle, Vardy
Friday, September 26, 2014
Liverpool vs Everton: Our envious older brother is coming for a visit
Oh Everton, we are so sorry. It's not our fault that we were blessed with greater talent and conviction. You cannot blame us for being superior at football. Just accept that you've been surpassed by your younger sibling and... come on... don't be like that... Mum's gonna be disappointed.
Liverpool are 10-10-2 versus Everton at Anfield since the conception of the Premier League. The Toffees have not won this fixture in exactly 15 years come match day. Recently a pattern has developed, since 2006 Liverpool has won one year and drawn the next, which means we are due a draw tomorrow. I honestly think that's the worst that could happen.
The last time the Blues made the five minute trip down the road, they got hammered 4-0. That match occurred in January of this year and coming in, Everton was sitting just one point on the table behind LFC. Though it isn't indicative of the final score, our cross-town rivals were arguably better than us that day, but were just unable to score. The story of our current season so far.
I don't think this is the match that Rodgers can use to right the ship since Everton play a similar style of football. A win would definitely be a push in the right direction, but the real test will be Stoke in 8 days. We will need to toughen up for the Potters are begin to accept a long season of suffering.
As for the Blues, I hope Rodgers will use this match to get Moreno more involved and just see what works best for us in general. One thing he'll have to keep heavy tabs on is our centre backs moving forward and communication on defence in general. Mignolet and whoever starts at CB need to talk to one another early and often, I am so tired of the defensive errors that come from their inability to convey intentions.
We should win this match, we are the better side. As woeful as we are on defence, Everton is worse. Even without Sturridge, we will score, and we have the ability to hold them, whether we will or not is any body's guess.
Listen big brother, sorry I broke all your records... Can we just go down to the pub for a pint? Brother?
Liverpool are 10-10-2 versus Everton at Anfield since the conception of the Premier League. The Toffees have not won this fixture in exactly 15 years come match day. Recently a pattern has developed, since 2006 Liverpool has won one year and drawn the next, which means we are due a draw tomorrow. I honestly think that's the worst that could happen.
The last time the Blues made the five minute trip down the road, they got hammered 4-0. That match occurred in January of this year and coming in, Everton was sitting just one point on the table behind LFC. Though it isn't indicative of the final score, our cross-town rivals were arguably better than us that day, but were just unable to score. The story of our current season so far.
I don't think this is the match that Rodgers can use to right the ship since Everton play a similar style of football. A win would definitely be a push in the right direction, but the real test will be Stoke in 8 days. We will need to toughen up for the Potters are begin to accept a long season of suffering.
As for the Blues, I hope Rodgers will use this match to get Moreno more involved and just see what works best for us in general. One thing he'll have to keep heavy tabs on is our centre backs moving forward and communication on defence in general. Mignolet and whoever starts at CB need to talk to one another early and often, I am so tired of the defensive errors that come from their inability to convey intentions.
We should win this match, we are the better side. As woeful as we are on defence, Everton is worse. Even without Sturridge, we will score, and we have the ability to hold them, whether we will or not is any body's guess.
Listen big brother, sorry I broke all your records... Can we just go down to the pub for a pint? Brother?
Sunday, September 21, 2014
This is the machine, it does nothing, move along now!
Public relations is a fascinating game. It is amazing, utterly baffling, the amount of money that has gone into something seemingly so meaningless, but that's it's intention. Desperate moves washed in tubs of cash to remove the smell of desperation. Of course a practice birthed in the genocidal precedence of 'Manifest Destiny', evolved by the incantations of a former painter turned dictator-mongol, and blatantly unveiled by the discounted sermons of a linguistic preacher with a disenfranchised choir is a ghost game shrouded by itself. Seriously, there's a man behind that curtain whether you want to look or not and he's laughing all the way to the proverbial bank.
The newest rubbish campaign to deter the truth is 'blame Gerrard'. He's 'too old', 'past it', 'worn out', 'not good anymore', or 'can't play that position'. They haven't lost their minds, they are just securing their future. 'They' are those who make their living by playing you like a stringless fiddle. 'They' are those that say 'stats don't matter' which is comical considering 'they' use stats for virtually every thing they do. Their actions are pre-calculated to produce the optimal result. Their tactics have been researched and tested a million times for decades on end.
Just stop it. I've yet to read a single article abhorring the violent display of tackling by West Ham. Not a single line from the muppet brigade has been dedicated to Kouyate's potentially career-ending, unjustifiable late thrust at Moreno. Do we need to mention 'studs up'? I guess they'll have to re-write the unwritten rule book on that one.
It was 'grand' football. A 'fantastic' display. Sam Allardyce 'outwitted' Brendan Rodgers. Yeah, don't get me started on that, the only thing Freddie Flintstone head out-did his counterpart on was thuggery and being a company man. It would be an utter revelation had the focus of matches be on what actually occurs on the pitch instead of the concoctions of think tank bunnies.
Liverpool lost because they refused to be brute thugs, it's that simple. Sorry they want to have class. Apologies for wanting to put an attractive product on the field instead of a professional wrestling match. That's where the EPL is heading if they continue to compromise, sport entertainment instead of sport. What do they care though? As long as the mums and the dads buy their children that kit each year.
The newest rubbish campaign to deter the truth is 'blame Gerrard'. He's 'too old', 'past it', 'worn out', 'not good anymore', or 'can't play that position'. They haven't lost their minds, they are just securing their future. 'They' are those who make their living by playing you like a stringless fiddle. 'They' are those that say 'stats don't matter' which is comical considering 'they' use stats for virtually every thing they do. Their actions are pre-calculated to produce the optimal result. Their tactics have been researched and tested a million times for decades on end.
Just stop it. I've yet to read a single article abhorring the violent display of tackling by West Ham. Not a single line from the muppet brigade has been dedicated to Kouyate's potentially career-ending, unjustifiable late thrust at Moreno. Do we need to mention 'studs up'? I guess they'll have to re-write the unwritten rule book on that one.
It was 'grand' football. A 'fantastic' display. Sam Allardyce 'outwitted' Brendan Rodgers. Yeah, don't get me started on that, the only thing Freddie Flintstone head out-did his counterpart on was thuggery and being a company man. It would be an utter revelation had the focus of matches be on what actually occurs on the pitch instead of the concoctions of think tank bunnies.
Liverpool lost because they refused to be brute thugs, it's that simple. Sorry they want to have class. Apologies for wanting to put an attractive product on the field instead of a professional wrestling match. That's where the EPL is heading if they continue to compromise, sport entertainment instead of sport. What do they care though? As long as the mums and the dads buy their children that kit each year.
Saturday, September 20, 2014
Liverpool to lose? Noble to score? Can Gerrard reach 10? What the markets say...
I was a bit worried when I saw the amount of bets placed on Liverpool to win, but upon further investigation I realized the line movement didn't justify my concern. Still a 5/6 payoff isn't worth a go.
| To win: | ||
| Liverpool | 5/6 | 64.80% |
| West Ham | 4/1 | 18.00% |
| Draw | 16/5 | 17.20% |
There are only six players total from both squads who have scored in this fixture. Gerrard has scored 9 times in 21 matches versus the Hammers which equals the amount of all the other players combined. The other five are Mark Noble (2), Glen Johnson (3), Carlton Cole (2), Guy Demel (1) and Mamadou Sakho (1). Only two players have scored for both sides, Gerrard and Demel. Noble at 25/1 as first goalscorer and 8/1 for anytime goalscorer is worth a small wager and if you're feeling particularly lucky, Guy Demel is 50/1 as first and 26/1 anytime.
| First goalscorer: | ||
| Balotelli | 5/1 | 46.00% |
| Sterling | 15/2 | 14.00% |
| Valencia | 17/2 | 12.00% |
| Noble | 25/1 | 6.00% |
| Borini | 15/2 | 4.00% |
| D. Sakho | 9/1 | |
| Coutinho | 8/1 | |
| Markovic | 8/1 | |
| Gerrard | 10/1 | |
| Cole | 10/1 | |
| Lovren | 25/1 | |
| Downing | 25/1 | |
| Skrtel | 25/1 | |
| Song | 35/1 | |
| Moreno | 35/1 | |
| Manquillo | 40/1 | |
| G. Johnson | 40/1 | |
| M. Sakho | 40/1 | |
| Demel | 50/1 |
Unlike last week, where Liverpool dominated the final score bets, the draw wagers are coming into play today. The 'favorite' West Ham gambles are 2-1 and 1-0, both at 16/1. If you think Liverpool will thump the Hammers at Upton, 4-0 is a hefty 28/1 pay back.
| Correct score: | |||
| Liverpool | 3-1 | 14/1 | 14.63% |
| Draw | 0-0 | 14/1 | 12.20% |
| Liverpool | 2-1 | 8/1 | 10.98% |
| Draw | 1-1 | 15/2 | 9.76% |
| Draw | 2-2 | 15/1 | 7.32% |
| Liverpool | 1-0 | 9/1 | |
| West Ham | 2-1 | 16/1 | |
| West Ham | 1-0 | 16/1 | |
| Liverpool | 4-0 | 28/1 |
As I mentioned above, Noble is a decent bet at anytime goalscorer. The great English hope, 'Pretty Hair' Lallana, is getting a little love here as well with 3.23% of all wagers betting he'll net his first for the 'Pool.
| Anytime scorer: | ||
| Balotelli | 11/8 | 38.71% |
| Valencia | 11/4 | 29.03% |
| Sterling | 9/4 | 16.13% |
| Borini | 9/4 | 3.23% |
| Lallana | 31/10 | 3.23% |
| D. Sakho | 10/3 | |
| Zarate | 3/1 | |
| Cole | 7/2 | |
| Henderson | 5/1 | |
| Noble | 8/1 | |
| Gerrard | 10/3 | |
| G. Johnson | 14/1 | |
| M. Sakho | 14/1 | |
| Coutinho | 7/2 | |
| Kouyoute | 11/1 | |
| Demel | 26/1 |
The last goalscorer bet is always an interesting one, you've got to think a late match striker sub would be the best wager, thus Lambert and Cole seem like decent shots. The problem with Lambert is the return is only 5/1, while Cole is much better at 9/1. Jordan Henderson at 16/1 seems possible as well.
| Last goalscorer: | |
| Lambert | 5/1 |
| Cole | 9/1 |
| Gerrard | 10/1 |
| Henderson | 16/1 |
No one will likely score a hat-trick, but it's always fun for a small wager.
| Score hat-trick: | |
| Balotelli | 28/1 |
| Sterling | 66/1 |
| Gerrard | 100/1 |
Man of the match betting has been interesting to say the least. Moreno, for some reason, seems a popular pick and at 33/1, it's worth a meager go. Song is also getting some action at 20/1, him winning would not surprise me either. Sterling has been garnering the favorite for a few matches and that doesn't change here at 5/1. Mark Noble is the dark horse and at 25/1, it's a nice reward for the risk.
| Man of the match: | ||
| Moreno | 33/1 | 38.10% |
| Song | 20/1 | 19.05% |
| Sterling | 5/1 | 14.29% |
| Valencia | 12/1 | 14.29% |
| Lallana | 12/1 | 4.76% |
| Balotelli | 6/1 | |
| Gerrard | 8/1 | |
| Noble | 25/1 |
Other fun bets are an own goal scored (by either side) at 9/1 and the always volatile Balotelli to get a card 11/4. Cheers and happy betting.
Thursday, September 18, 2014
EPL Fantasy Week 5: Slim pickings (Everton, Tottenham, and...)
Well, last week you could pick names out of a hat and have a good shot of putting together a solid squad, this week there won't be many names to draw. The clubs to go with are Everton or Tottenham, but if you have to pick from other squads, I'd go Arsenal, Swansea, or Hull.
Keeper
Tim Howard or Hugo Llloris. If you want to get adventurous, go with Szczesny, since Aston Villa can only score on set pieces and put backs.
Long term, Mignolet will probably not blunder for at least 3-4 matches now that he goofed on Tuesday. Plus Liverpool do have a rather easy run upon them. Begovic is still the best keeper in the league and Stoke are still the best defence, so their upcoming fixtures seem manageable on paper. If you're really into gambling Forster hasn't been the worst form lately and Southampton should be competitive in the next 5 matches or so.
Defenders
Everton's back four of Baines, Jagielka, Stones, and Coleman, if that's who start, are all candidates, as are Tottenham's Kaboul, Dier, Vertonghen, and Danny Rose. Arsenal and Man U defenders should be decent as well with latter playing a Leicester side that will try to play a very 'controlled' match. In other words a 0-0 draw will be as good as a victory for them. Don't bet on that result though. If I went with my gut, I'd go Chambers, Dier, Rojo, and Jagielka.
Lovren, Shawcross, Moreno, and Alderweireld would be my best bets for the next 4-5 weeks.
Midfielders
Here's where you can get a little risky and not sacrifice points like on defence. Still Mirallas and McGeady from Everton along with Chadli, Lamela, and Eriksen from Tottenham are the most likely/safest picks. Arsenal midfielders are a shot in the dark, only because there are so many to chose from, you don't know who'll play. Last week I was sure Cazorla would make an impact and he never saw the pitch. The obvious is Ramsey, but even Flamini can put in a decent match here and there. The same with Swansea, as you never know who's going to have big day, you're most likely high scorer is Sigurdsson, but Dyer, Shelvey, Sung-Yeung, and Routledge could all go off any given match. Out of all those above, I'd go Mirallas, Chadli, Lamela, and Dyer.
In the long term, Sterling, Schniederlin, Victor Moses, DiMaria and Tadic are the most likely to produce mucho points.
Forward
The most obvious picks here Lukaku and Adebayor, but don't fret over Naismith and Eto'o is a decent roll of the dice. I don't know about Harry Kane though, you got some brass cajones if you pick him up. If you want to go Arsenal, Welbeck is bound to have a decent match at some point, but if you want to play it safe there's always Alexis Sanchez. Other players worth a shot include Jelavic and Abel Hernandez at Hull and Wilfried Bony for Swansea, who is bound to get his starting spot back after Gomis unable to take advantage of his first start.
My long term forwards are Balotelli, Pelle, Diouf, and Flacao.
Keeper
Tim Howard or Hugo Llloris. If you want to get adventurous, go with Szczesny, since Aston Villa can only score on set pieces and put backs.
Long term, Mignolet will probably not blunder for at least 3-4 matches now that he goofed on Tuesday. Plus Liverpool do have a rather easy run upon them. Begovic is still the best keeper in the league and Stoke are still the best defence, so their upcoming fixtures seem manageable on paper. If you're really into gambling Forster hasn't been the worst form lately and Southampton should be competitive in the next 5 matches or so.
Defenders
Everton's back four of Baines, Jagielka, Stones, and Coleman, if that's who start, are all candidates, as are Tottenham's Kaboul, Dier, Vertonghen, and Danny Rose. Arsenal and Man U defenders should be decent as well with latter playing a Leicester side that will try to play a very 'controlled' match. In other words a 0-0 draw will be as good as a victory for them. Don't bet on that result though. If I went with my gut, I'd go Chambers, Dier, Rojo, and Jagielka.
Lovren, Shawcross, Moreno, and Alderweireld would be my best bets for the next 4-5 weeks.
Midfielders
Here's where you can get a little risky and not sacrifice points like on defence. Still Mirallas and McGeady from Everton along with Chadli, Lamela, and Eriksen from Tottenham are the most likely/safest picks. Arsenal midfielders are a shot in the dark, only because there are so many to chose from, you don't know who'll play. Last week I was sure Cazorla would make an impact and he never saw the pitch. The obvious is Ramsey, but even Flamini can put in a decent match here and there. The same with Swansea, as you never know who's going to have big day, you're most likely high scorer is Sigurdsson, but Dyer, Shelvey, Sung-Yeung, and Routledge could all go off any given match. Out of all those above, I'd go Mirallas, Chadli, Lamela, and Dyer.
In the long term, Sterling, Schniederlin, Victor Moses, DiMaria and Tadic are the most likely to produce mucho points.
Forward
The most obvious picks here Lukaku and Adebayor, but don't fret over Naismith and Eto'o is a decent roll of the dice. I don't know about Harry Kane though, you got some brass cajones if you pick him up. If you want to go Arsenal, Welbeck is bound to have a decent match at some point, but if you want to play it safe there's always Alexis Sanchez. Other players worth a shot include Jelavic and Abel Hernandez at Hull and Wilfried Bony for Swansea, who is bound to get his starting spot back after Gomis unable to take advantage of his first start.
My long term forwards are Balotelli, Pelle, Diouf, and Flacao.
Liverpool 2, PFC Ludogorets Razgrad 1: The same old rubbish
Like clockwork, the problems plaguing our side once again reared their ugly heads. We couldn't score despite plenty of intrusions into our opponent's third and got caught out of position at the back. We were lucky not to lose and the only way to justify a win is to say we deserved it, but even that is laying it on a bit thick. Sure, we dominated the match, played a reckless style that was enjoyable to watch, but should have scored loads of goals and not allowed any by a clearly inferior side.
Sterling has to take his shots, forget about trying to help Balotelli break the duck or trying to share the wealth with his captain, he has to shoot it. Has he lost his confidence? If so, his play on the ball doesn't show it, he should just thump away without a concious like Suarez did last year. I'd rather he take it on a decent look than lay off and let the defence collapse around whomever receives it. It became infectious as even Gerrard passed on a decent look at the top of the box where he has, in the very least, challenged the keeper many times throughout his career.
Beyond that, after the first goal, eighty-two minutes into the match and seen coming from a mile away, Rodgers should have pulled everyone back instead of allowing his players to be greedy. I know it's not his style, but it should have been 4-0 at that point, take what you can get and park the bus. Our defence become porous and Ludogorets produced counter after counter with ease. Once Sakho and Lovren got 'adventurous' the probable became inevitable. Also, Mignolet didn't help with his decision to come out of net so early. Then, of course, we are saved by a dubious penalty, which probably did more bad than good. No matter what, we must learn to score without Sturridge, whom along with Gerrard, saved us many a time last season.
As for individual performances, Lallana is now 0-2 on chances to impress. Big surprise, I thought he was going to show me I was wrong about him being a wasted £26m? Yeah, not gonna happen, if he pulls his club out of this scoring rut, I may lay off of him, but he won't. We'll be laughing about him being the second worst acquisition in LFC history soon enough. I also thought Southampton was going to be relegated? Again, ridiculous.
Balotelli was probably the man of the match, but Moreno needs special mention for his assist, five chances created, 37/41 passing (90.2%), and 3 tackles for good measure. Also, Manquillo was a beast on defence, leading the side with 8 tackles, 3 interceptions, and 3 clearances. In the end, it's a much needed three points for our Champions League cause. Next we have West Ham at Upton, which means Sam Allardyce trying to measure up against Rodgers and Liverpool's superior talent. I will be shocked if Big Sam takes a stifling defensive approach, but if he does, it won't be the first time he's surprised me. Hopefully we'll find an answer to our scoring issues early on and then pour it on.
Sterling has to take his shots, forget about trying to help Balotelli break the duck or trying to share the wealth with his captain, he has to shoot it. Has he lost his confidence? If so, his play on the ball doesn't show it, he should just thump away without a concious like Suarez did last year. I'd rather he take it on a decent look than lay off and let the defence collapse around whomever receives it. It became infectious as even Gerrard passed on a decent look at the top of the box where he has, in the very least, challenged the keeper many times throughout his career.
Beyond that, after the first goal, eighty-two minutes into the match and seen coming from a mile away, Rodgers should have pulled everyone back instead of allowing his players to be greedy. I know it's not his style, but it should have been 4-0 at that point, take what you can get and park the bus. Our defence become porous and Ludogorets produced counter after counter with ease. Once Sakho and Lovren got 'adventurous' the probable became inevitable. Also, Mignolet didn't help with his decision to come out of net so early. Then, of course, we are saved by a dubious penalty, which probably did more bad than good. No matter what, we must learn to score without Sturridge, whom along with Gerrard, saved us many a time last season.
As for individual performances, Lallana is now 0-2 on chances to impress. Big surprise, I thought he was going to show me I was wrong about him being a wasted £26m? Yeah, not gonna happen, if he pulls his club out of this scoring rut, I may lay off of him, but he won't. We'll be laughing about him being the second worst acquisition in LFC history soon enough. I also thought Southampton was going to be relegated? Again, ridiculous.
Balotelli was probably the man of the match, but Moreno needs special mention for his assist, five chances created, 37/41 passing (90.2%), and 3 tackles for good measure. Also, Manquillo was a beast on defence, leading the side with 8 tackles, 3 interceptions, and 3 clearances. In the end, it's a much needed three points for our Champions League cause. Next we have West Ham at Upton, which means Sam Allardyce trying to measure up against Rodgers and Liverpool's superior talent. I will be shocked if Big Sam takes a stifling defensive approach, but if he does, it won't be the first time he's surprised me. Hopefully we'll find an answer to our scoring issues early on and then pour it on.
Wednesday, September 17, 2014
Liverpool 0, Aston Villains 1: 'Character'? Senderos should be suspended
In continuing some of the worst football seen in the Premiership in years, Aston Villa pulled off a criminal win against Liverpool on Saturday. The farcical display was highlighted by four, yes, four off-the-ball assaults by Phillip Senderos on Mario Balotelli. Somehow all four officials missed them all. Oh yes, there are FOUR officials, not just one or two or three, but four. Once again the Prem cheapens it's product with a laughable display of officiating and then blatantly ignores the 'ignoring'. Yes, the refs saw all four fouls, if that was Sakho on Rooney, the Frenchman would have been sent off immediately after the first assault and then probably fined and suspended. Save the lies, misdirections, and double-speak for the idiots who will fork over any amount of money to feel like a winner because their lives are so pathetically indulged in vicarious behavior and will never analyze anything beyond where they defecate. If the Premier League truly cared about racism, they certainly failed to show it at Anfield on Saturday. If the Premier League truly cared about putting an honest product on the pitch, they would never allow contentious acts of 'character' be displayed one time, yet alone four. Welcome to the hyperreality, you just got a front row seat.
With my diatribe out of the way, Liverpool did not deserve to win either, but they certainly should not have lost. They dominated nearly every aspect of the match except thuggery. Lo and behold had the home side acted in the manner that the Brum bruisers did, cards would have been in abundance. The fact that LFC received more cards than the visitors is laughable in itself. Amazingly the Claret and Blue got called for more fouls though, a whole one that is, and 19 total fouls in the entire match? Maybe the refs didn't see anything in the match, maybe they were just too busy thinking about their summer homes.
As for individual performances, outside of the amazing diplay of 'character' by Phillip Senderos, who probably thinks by 'character', he means a cartoon character. Maybe he thought he was Elmer Fudd and Balotelli was Bugs Bunny. Who knows, who cares. Getting on with it, Adam Lallana has a long way to go to justify his £26m transfer fee, 80% passing is just not going to get it done. It was technically his first match so he gets a pass, this time. The bottom line is, we had an 89% pass success rate, we moved the ball down the pitch with ease, but once we got in the opponent's third, we failed to find space, failed to make space, and failed to take advantage of the few true shot opportunities afforded to us by the 'negative' football being displayed by Villa.
Once in a while, especially early on in matches, we need to take ambitious chances to score spectacular goals and once we are a threat from scoring outside the box, it'll open up the pitch like magic. Sterling, Coutinho, and Henderson are going to have to 'thump' it from distance and try to at least force a save from the opposition keeper. Maybe Balotelli sneaks and puts away on the rebound, you never know. It's nice to have players that want to help their teammates score, but one too many passes is becoming habitual among our players and getting us no where. Sometimes being selfish is best for the team.
There is little logic to Saturday's result. Aston Villa basically planned on the nil-nil draw and got a lucky result. They had no intentions of trying to play an up-and-down match with a side that would have abused them for doing so. Still, Liverpool is going to have to deal with this a lot this season, very few other than the top five or six clubs have the firepower to get into a free-for-all. Coutinho, Sterling, Henderson, and Lallana are going to have to step up, take chances and quit going for the obvious pass all the time. Failure to do so is going to result in a long season and Balotelli getting assaulted often.
With my diatribe out of the way, Liverpool did not deserve to win either, but they certainly should not have lost. They dominated nearly every aspect of the match except thuggery. Lo and behold had the home side acted in the manner that the Brum bruisers did, cards would have been in abundance. The fact that LFC received more cards than the visitors is laughable in itself. Amazingly the Claret and Blue got called for more fouls though, a whole one that is, and 19 total fouls in the entire match? Maybe the refs didn't see anything in the match, maybe they were just too busy thinking about their summer homes.
As for individual performances, outside of the amazing diplay of 'character' by Phillip Senderos, who probably thinks by 'character', he means a cartoon character. Maybe he thought he was Elmer Fudd and Balotelli was Bugs Bunny. Who knows, who cares. Getting on with it, Adam Lallana has a long way to go to justify his £26m transfer fee, 80% passing is just not going to get it done. It was technically his first match so he gets a pass, this time. The bottom line is, we had an 89% pass success rate, we moved the ball down the pitch with ease, but once we got in the opponent's third, we failed to find space, failed to make space, and failed to take advantage of the few true shot opportunities afforded to us by the 'negative' football being displayed by Villa.
Once in a while, especially early on in matches, we need to take ambitious chances to score spectacular goals and once we are a threat from scoring outside the box, it'll open up the pitch like magic. Sterling, Coutinho, and Henderson are going to have to 'thump' it from distance and try to at least force a save from the opposition keeper. Maybe Balotelli sneaks and puts away on the rebound, you never know. It's nice to have players that want to help their teammates score, but one too many passes is becoming habitual among our players and getting us no where. Sometimes being selfish is best for the team.
There is little logic to Saturday's result. Aston Villa basically planned on the nil-nil draw and got a lucky result. They had no intentions of trying to play an up-and-down match with a side that would have abused them for doing so. Still, Liverpool is going to have to deal with this a lot this season, very few other than the top five or six clubs have the firepower to get into a free-for-all. Coutinho, Sterling, Henderson, and Lallana are going to have to step up, take chances and quit going for the obvious pass all the time. Failure to do so is going to result in a long season and Balotelli getting assaulted often.
Thursday, September 11, 2014
Three weeks of hell? Or has the Fixture God shown mercy?
Liverpool play seven matches in three weeks starting with Villa at Anfield on Saturday. The thing is, all seven are winnable, even with the injuries we have sustained recently. The 2-0-1 record, 7 points, and current third place standing on the table are flattering to deceive for the Villans. To say they've been lucky would be the understatement of the season by far. They were manhandled at Stoke in their first match, but somehow managed a 1-0 win. They needed a red card by Newcastle to get a 0-0 result at home in week two, and barely managed to hold on against Hull at Villa Park two weekends ago. Karma has to catch up with them at some point and history says it could very well come Saturday.
Next up we host Ludogorets on Tuesday, our easiest Champions League fixture by far. I can see Rodgers going with a 'weaker' side in this match, hopefully Suso will play a part. I don't know if he'll go as far as starting Borini, but he could make the bench. Then we go to Upton Park to take on the Hammers, where Liverpool has won 7 of the last 9 matches and Rodgers has never lost to Allardyce or West Ham. The London club has the sixth most efficient defence, but sixth worst attacking efficiency, who knows how that could change when they face the equally volatile Hull City on Monday.
Three days later, Liverpool host Middlesborough in the League Cup. We should definitely see an 'experimental' side here. If Markovic hasn't broken his duck by then, this will be his best opportunity. Liverpool have not lost to the Boro at Anfield since March 6, 1976, 38 years ago and before I was born. The two have not met since 2009, when the then Premier League side beat Liverpool 2-0 at Riverside. I remember the dismal affair, Nabil El Zhar started for us, Xabi scored an own goal, and Tuncay sealed it in the 63rd minute. LFC dominated the match in every aspect, winning 9 corners to Boro's 2, having 16 shots, 7 on-target to the home side's 5 and 3 respectively, 84.7% to 65.6% passing, and 72% to 28% possession, but just couldn't score. It was one of the matches looked back on as costing Liverpool the title that season and baffled many as the Reds had just beat Real Madrid 1-0 at the Bernabeu three days earlier.
One of the harder matches of the lot is Liverpool hosting Everton the Saturday following the Boro fixture. I'm not really that worried as much as I probably should be when it comes to hosting the lesser Liverpool club. They have not beaten us in four years, at Anfield in 19 years, and how suspect their defence has been this season, we should be able to get the goals needed for three points. Any result less than a win will be unacceptable and detrimental to any chance of winning the League.
If a visit from the Blue side of Merseyside isn't the hardest fixture of this bunch, the trip to Basel four days later definitely is. Kicking off October at the defending Swiss Super League Champions in our second CL fixture isn't the worst of scenarios, but even if our squad isn't as injury depleted as it is now, we will still have fatigued players. That'll be six matches in 19 days, only Man City have the depth to maintain a high level of football during that kind of run. The good news is, we've never lost to Basel, that bad news is, we've never beaten Basel and we've only ever played them twice. The 'Rotblau' currently sit atop the SSL table, are unbeaten in 7 matches with 6 wins, and lead the league in goals scored with 18. I still think we can get a win here, but will not be too aggrieved if we only manage a draw. Wins at home are a must in CL group play and that should be enough to get us through to the elimination round.
Finally, we end the Shine on Harvest Moon tour with a visit from West Brom. The Baggies have baffled us the past few years, a ship that seemed to be righted with our 4-1 dismantling of the West Midlands club, but a title costly 1-1 result at the Hawthorns last February rekindled the recent pain. Before winning at Anfield in two of the last three meetings, WBA hadn't won there since 1965. Liverpool are 3-1-4 versus West Brom in their last 8 meetings in all comps, but the Baggies have the least efficient defence in the league by quite a distance. We should be able to end this run with three points as long as we don't beat ourselves.
Next up we host Ludogorets on Tuesday, our easiest Champions League fixture by far. I can see Rodgers going with a 'weaker' side in this match, hopefully Suso will play a part. I don't know if he'll go as far as starting Borini, but he could make the bench. Then we go to Upton Park to take on the Hammers, where Liverpool has won 7 of the last 9 matches and Rodgers has never lost to Allardyce or West Ham. The London club has the sixth most efficient defence, but sixth worst attacking efficiency, who knows how that could change when they face the equally volatile Hull City on Monday.
Three days later, Liverpool host Middlesborough in the League Cup. We should definitely see an 'experimental' side here. If Markovic hasn't broken his duck by then, this will be his best opportunity. Liverpool have not lost to the Boro at Anfield since March 6, 1976, 38 years ago and before I was born. The two have not met since 2009, when the then Premier League side beat Liverpool 2-0 at Riverside. I remember the dismal affair, Nabil El Zhar started for us, Xabi scored an own goal, and Tuncay sealed it in the 63rd minute. LFC dominated the match in every aspect, winning 9 corners to Boro's 2, having 16 shots, 7 on-target to the home side's 5 and 3 respectively, 84.7% to 65.6% passing, and 72% to 28% possession, but just couldn't score. It was one of the matches looked back on as costing Liverpool the title that season and baffled many as the Reds had just beat Real Madrid 1-0 at the Bernabeu three days earlier.
One of the harder matches of the lot is Liverpool hosting Everton the Saturday following the Boro fixture. I'm not really that worried as much as I probably should be when it comes to hosting the lesser Liverpool club. They have not beaten us in four years, at Anfield in 19 years, and how suspect their defence has been this season, we should be able to get the goals needed for three points. Any result less than a win will be unacceptable and detrimental to any chance of winning the League.
If a visit from the Blue side of Merseyside isn't the hardest fixture of this bunch, the trip to Basel four days later definitely is. Kicking off October at the defending Swiss Super League Champions in our second CL fixture isn't the worst of scenarios, but even if our squad isn't as injury depleted as it is now, we will still have fatigued players. That'll be six matches in 19 days, only Man City have the depth to maintain a high level of football during that kind of run. The good news is, we've never lost to Basel, that bad news is, we've never beaten Basel and we've only ever played them twice. The 'Rotblau' currently sit atop the SSL table, are unbeaten in 7 matches with 6 wins, and lead the league in goals scored with 18. I still think we can get a win here, but will not be too aggrieved if we only manage a draw. Wins at home are a must in CL group play and that should be enough to get us through to the elimination round.
Finally, we end the Shine on Harvest Moon tour with a visit from West Brom. The Baggies have baffled us the past few years, a ship that seemed to be righted with our 4-1 dismantling of the West Midlands club, but a title costly 1-1 result at the Hawthorns last February rekindled the recent pain. Before winning at Anfield in two of the last three meetings, WBA hadn't won there since 1965. Liverpool are 3-1-4 versus West Brom in their last 8 meetings in all comps, but the Baggies have the least efficient defence in the league by quite a distance. We should be able to end this run with three points as long as we don't beat ourselves.
EPL Fantasy Picks R4: Can't budge on Studge
I have yet to be able to adorn these fantasy picks posts with Liverpool players and now that I can, Sturridge is sidelined. There is a plethora of chop-lickin' picks this week including Liverpool, Chelsea, Stoke, Southampton, Man U, and even Hull?
Keeper
Asmir Begovic is the best keeper in the league and has the third most efficient defence playing in front of him. Factor in Stoke is home against Leicester on Saturday and it's a no-brainer. The Foxes have dropped all the way to second-to-last in attack eficiency, but they should be able to get off some shots on goal, though nothing Begovic can't handle.
Alternates: Speroni (CP), Mignolet (Liv), Forster (Sou), MacGregor (Hull)
Begovic also looks like a solid long-term pick as well with Stoke's upcoming fixtures: vs Leicester, at QPR, home to Newwcastle, at Sunderland, and then hosting Swansea. Mignolet has a lot of clean sheet chances coming up, the only worry being the massive schedule congestion coming up with Champions League and League Cup play. LFC play a ridiculous 7 fixtures in the next 23 days. Other decent picks are DeGea (Man U), Forster (Sou), and if you're feeling particularly cardiac-ish, Burnley's Tom Heaton has 5 weeks of clean sheet chances coming up.
Defenders
A blind monkey could probably pick a productive group of backs this week. The dream team would be Shawcross (Sto), Ivanovic (Che), Lovren (Liv), and Chester (Hull). The almost dreamy team would be Pieters (Sto), Moreno (Liv), Davies (Hull), and Clyne (Sou). The 'what the hell they'll probably do well' side would be Terry (Che), Dann (CP), Alderweireld (Sou), and Sakho (or Skrtel) (Liv). Finally, the 'why not? they are worth a shot' side is Rojo (Man U), Blackett (Man U), Kelly (CP), and Wilson (Sto). If I could only pick four, I would really role the dice and go with: Terry, Rojo, Kelly, and Pieters, just have a 'weird' feeling about those four. Is Daley Blind (Man U) listed as a defender? If so, he's worth a shot as well.
In the long term, it's more of who to avoid from Stoke, Liverpool, Man U, and Southampton. I think I'd go Shawcross, Lovren, Rojo, and oddly enough, Fonte (Sou). The latter is also worthy of a pick this week as well. The players I would avoid from those four clubs are Sakho (Liv), mostly because Skrtel will start when he's fit, Bardsley (Sto), Bertrand (Sou), and Evans (Man U). The latter three are all capable of having a solid run, but statistically least likely.
Midfielders
The elephant man's bones could pick a decent midfield this week. The ace picks are Sterling (Liv),Fabregas, Oscar, Hazard (Che), Schniederlin (Sou), Zaha (CP), DiMaria (Man U), and Mata (Man U). Decent picks are Henderson, Gerrard (Liv), Schurrle (Che), Cazorla (Ars), MacArthur, Puncheon (CP), McGeady (Eve), Livermore, Elmohamady, Ramirez (Hull), Ward-Prowse (Sou), N'Zonzi, Whelan, Moses (Sto), Johnson, Larrson, Rodwell, Giaccherini (Sun), Brunt, Gardner, and Morrison (WBA). Seriously, put all those names in a hat and draw, you'll probably have a better chance than anyone picking a high-scoring group. Again, if I had a gun to my head and had to go with my gut, I'd take Sterling, Schniederlin, Zaha, and DiMaria. If you truly want to take a gamble go with either Markovic or Lallana.
Long term picks are the same for defenders, pick from Stoke, Liverpool, Man U, and Southampton with a little sense and it should turn out fine. The players I would avoid though are Davis, Wanyama (Sou), Herrera (Man U), Allen and Lucas (Liv). Mainly because they are either inconsistent or not consistently in the line-up.
Forwards
Seriously, if you need help picking a few strikers for your team this week, you should probably just quit. A dead fish on a ouija board listening to Justin Bieber could pick decent front men this round. The prime picks are Balotelli (Liv), DeCosta (Che), Rooney, Van Persie (Man U), Pelle, Long (Sou), and Diouf (Sto). The boss picks are Gayle (CP), Lukaku, Naismith (Eve), Hernandez, Jelavic (Hull), Crouch (Sto), Wickham (Sun), and Berahino (WBA). The 'that guy at Anfield Banter don't know squat' picks are Zarate (WHam), Dzeko (MCity), Mirallas (Eve), Flacao (Man U) and Welbeck (Ars). If I went with my gut, I'd go with Balotelli, DeCosta, and Gayle.
My long term forwards would be Balotelli, Rooney, Pelle, Long, Diouf, and Bony (Swa).
Make sure to check and make sure your players are not injured and expected to start before the first match on Saturday. Not my problem otherwise. Cheers and buena suerte.
Keeper
Asmir Begovic is the best keeper in the league and has the third most efficient defence playing in front of him. Factor in Stoke is home against Leicester on Saturday and it's a no-brainer. The Foxes have dropped all the way to second-to-last in attack eficiency, but they should be able to get off some shots on goal, though nothing Begovic can't handle.
Alternates: Speroni (CP), Mignolet (Liv), Forster (Sou), MacGregor (Hull)
Begovic also looks like a solid long-term pick as well with Stoke's upcoming fixtures: vs Leicester, at QPR, home to Newwcastle, at Sunderland, and then hosting Swansea. Mignolet has a lot of clean sheet chances coming up, the only worry being the massive schedule congestion coming up with Champions League and League Cup play. LFC play a ridiculous 7 fixtures in the next 23 days. Other decent picks are DeGea (Man U), Forster (Sou), and if you're feeling particularly cardiac-ish, Burnley's Tom Heaton has 5 weeks of clean sheet chances coming up.
Defenders
A blind monkey could probably pick a productive group of backs this week. The dream team would be Shawcross (Sto), Ivanovic (Che), Lovren (Liv), and Chester (Hull). The almost dreamy team would be Pieters (Sto), Moreno (Liv), Davies (Hull), and Clyne (Sou). The 'what the hell they'll probably do well' side would be Terry (Che), Dann (CP), Alderweireld (Sou), and Sakho (or Skrtel) (Liv). Finally, the 'why not? they are worth a shot' side is Rojo (Man U), Blackett (Man U), Kelly (CP), and Wilson (Sto). If I could only pick four, I would really role the dice and go with: Terry, Rojo, Kelly, and Pieters, just have a 'weird' feeling about those four. Is Daley Blind (Man U) listed as a defender? If so, he's worth a shot as well.
In the long term, it's more of who to avoid from Stoke, Liverpool, Man U, and Southampton. I think I'd go Shawcross, Lovren, Rojo, and oddly enough, Fonte (Sou). The latter is also worthy of a pick this week as well. The players I would avoid from those four clubs are Sakho (Liv), mostly because Skrtel will start when he's fit, Bardsley (Sto), Bertrand (Sou), and Evans (Man U). The latter three are all capable of having a solid run, but statistically least likely.
Midfielders
The elephant man's bones could pick a decent midfield this week. The ace picks are Sterling (Liv),Fabregas, Oscar, Hazard (Che), Schniederlin (Sou), Zaha (CP), DiMaria (Man U), and Mata (Man U). Decent picks are Henderson, Gerrard (Liv), Schurrle (Che), Cazorla (Ars), MacArthur, Puncheon (CP), McGeady (Eve), Livermore, Elmohamady, Ramirez (Hull), Ward-Prowse (Sou), N'Zonzi, Whelan, Moses (Sto), Johnson, Larrson, Rodwell, Giaccherini (Sun), Brunt, Gardner, and Morrison (WBA). Seriously, put all those names in a hat and draw, you'll probably have a better chance than anyone picking a high-scoring group. Again, if I had a gun to my head and had to go with my gut, I'd take Sterling, Schniederlin, Zaha, and DiMaria. If you truly want to take a gamble go with either Markovic or Lallana.
Long term picks are the same for defenders, pick from Stoke, Liverpool, Man U, and Southampton with a little sense and it should turn out fine. The players I would avoid though are Davis, Wanyama (Sou), Herrera (Man U), Allen and Lucas (Liv). Mainly because they are either inconsistent or not consistently in the line-up.
Forwards
Seriously, if you need help picking a few strikers for your team this week, you should probably just quit. A dead fish on a ouija board listening to Justin Bieber could pick decent front men this round. The prime picks are Balotelli (Liv), DeCosta (Che), Rooney, Van Persie (Man U), Pelle, Long (Sou), and Diouf (Sto). The boss picks are Gayle (CP), Lukaku, Naismith (Eve), Hernandez, Jelavic (Hull), Crouch (Sto), Wickham (Sun), and Berahino (WBA). The 'that guy at Anfield Banter don't know squat' picks are Zarate (WHam), Dzeko (MCity), Mirallas (Eve), Flacao (Man U) and Welbeck (Ars). If I went with my gut, I'd go with Balotelli, DeCosta, and Gayle.
My long term forwards would be Balotelli, Rooney, Pelle, Long, Diouf, and Bony (Swa).
Make sure to check and make sure your players are not injured and expected to start before the first match on Saturday. Not my problem otherwise. Cheers and buena suerte.
Wednesday, September 10, 2014
Will Liverpool 'throttle' Villa at Anfield? Will Lazar get off the 'Markovic'? Inquiring minds just exploded.
Liverpool are 13-7-5 in league matches at home versus Aston Villa since 1989, but only 1-2-2 in the last five seasons. They went through a similar run from 1998 to 2003 when they also went 1-2-2. Take away those two 'slumps', they are 11-3-1 the past 25 years. Hopefully their current difficulty against the Birmingham club will come to an end after five matches as well. The last time Liverpool finished 2nd, they lost to Villa at home the following season in the third round, a 1-3 defeat that featured a Lucas Leiva own goal, a rare Curtis Davies header, and a penalty awarded on a Gerrard foul, converted by Ashley Young.
Liverpool is 6-3-1 at home in round 4 EPL matches, their only loss being 2-1 at the hands of Tottenham 21 years ago, August 25, 1993. A brace by Teddy 'the dirty Sheriff' Sheringham bettered an early clinical finish from new boy Nigel Clough. The only other time they have ever met Villa in this scenario is 2000-01 with LFC prevailing 3-1. A first half hat-trick from then 20-year-old and not yet loathed, Michael Owen, was all the home side needed.
Villa is 5-2-5 as visitors in the round four fixture in Prem history, not exactly push-overs. In fact, they have never lost by more than a goal and have only allowed multiple goals in three of those 12 fixtures. They've only allowed 3 goals once, an exciting clash with Spurs in 1997-98 that resulted in a 3-2 Tottenham win. After falling behind 0-1 in the sixth minute, Dwight 'New York, New' Yorke equalized in the 27th minute and Stan 'less is' Collymore gave them the lead in the 68th, but Spurs came roaring back to win on a 77th goal from Ruel 'what the' Fox.
Finally, the previous season 2nd place finisher is 19-2-1 at home against the previous season 15th place finisher in Premier League history. The only time a 15th has beaten a 2nd at home was in 1996-97, when Sheffield Wednesday overcame a 13th minute penalty from Alan Shearer to win 2-1. Short-time Villa player and Pompey 'legend' Guy Whittingham scored the winning goal. The home side in this fixture has won the last 11, outscoring the visitors by a whopping 28 to 4. In fact, the host club has only allowed 8 goals in all 22 fixtures with 15 clean sheets and only once allowing multiple goals. Liverpool has twice been involved and unfortunately was part of one of the draws, a 0-0 result versus Everton in 2002-03.
So what do all these numbers say? Even without Sturridge and Villa's staunch record on the road in round four, Liverpool should prevail. I hope Rodgers gives Markovic a start and if he does, I fully expect him to get off the mark. I'll go out on a limb and say Liverpool 3-0 with goals from Lazar, Balotelli, and Sterling.
Liverpool is 6-3-1 at home in round 4 EPL matches, their only loss being 2-1 at the hands of Tottenham 21 years ago, August 25, 1993. A brace by Teddy 'the dirty Sheriff' Sheringham bettered an early clinical finish from new boy Nigel Clough. The only other time they have ever met Villa in this scenario is 2000-01 with LFC prevailing 3-1. A first half hat-trick from then 20-year-old and not yet loathed, Michael Owen, was all the home side needed.
Villa is 5-2-5 as visitors in the round four fixture in Prem history, not exactly push-overs. In fact, they have never lost by more than a goal and have only allowed multiple goals in three of those 12 fixtures. They've only allowed 3 goals once, an exciting clash with Spurs in 1997-98 that resulted in a 3-2 Tottenham win. After falling behind 0-1 in the sixth minute, Dwight 'New York, New' Yorke equalized in the 27th minute and Stan 'less is' Collymore gave them the lead in the 68th, but Spurs came roaring back to win on a 77th goal from Ruel 'what the' Fox.
Finally, the previous season 2nd place finisher is 19-2-1 at home against the previous season 15th place finisher in Premier League history. The only time a 15th has beaten a 2nd at home was in 1996-97, when Sheffield Wednesday overcame a 13th minute penalty from Alan Shearer to win 2-1. Short-time Villa player and Pompey 'legend' Guy Whittingham scored the winning goal. The home side in this fixture has won the last 11, outscoring the visitors by a whopping 28 to 4. In fact, the host club has only allowed 8 goals in all 22 fixtures with 15 clean sheets and only once allowing multiple goals. Liverpool has twice been involved and unfortunately was part of one of the draws, a 0-0 result versus Everton in 2002-03.
So what do all these numbers say? Even without Sturridge and Villa's staunch record on the road in round four, Liverpool should prevail. I hope Rodgers gives Markovic a start and if he does, I fully expect him to get off the mark. I'll go out on a limb and say Liverpool 3-0 with goals from Lazar, Balotelli, and Sterling.
Tuesday, September 2, 2014
Spurs 0, LFC 3: Five things learnt
1. Mamadou Sakho is a bad influence.
In the first two matches, Lovren was rarely caught out of position, but against Spurs it happened twice and Liverpool were lucky not to surrender a goal. Sakho uses his athletic ability to cloak his 'bad' positioning, but Lovren doesn't have that luxury. It was also the first match that the Croatian played on the right.
2. You shall not pass!
Tottenham dominated possession and were able to move around the ball quite freely, that is until they got close to Liverpool's box. Spurs managed just 9 of 22 passes into the box, that was 1.9% of their passes completed and 0.4% attempted, resulting in only 3 chances created. Liverpool, on the other hand, attempted just 10 passes into the box (2.8%), completing 4 (1.4%), creating a chance and another that lead to a goal.
3. Sometimes efficiency doesn't matter that much
Especially when you can be effective on the counter. All three goals came on the counter and if we are able to 'build a fort' around the box, opponents will just get frustrated. That should lead to even more counter opportunities as we take advantage of their errors and lack of equal pace. Here are the efficiency stats for each side:
In the first two matches, Lovren was rarely caught out of position, but against Spurs it happened twice and Liverpool were lucky not to surrender a goal. Sakho uses his athletic ability to cloak his 'bad' positioning, but Lovren doesn't have that luxury. It was also the first match that the Croatian played on the right.
2. You shall not pass!
Tottenham dominated possession and were able to move around the ball quite freely, that is until they got close to Liverpool's box. Spurs managed just 9 of 22 passes into the box, that was 1.9% of their passes completed and 0.4% attempted, resulting in only 3 chances created. Liverpool, on the other hand, attempted just 10 passes into the box (2.8%), completing 4 (1.4%), creating a chance and another that lead to a goal.
3. Sometimes efficiency doesn't matter that much
Especially when you can be effective on the counter. All three goals came on the counter and if we are able to 'build a fort' around the box, opponents will just get frustrated. That should lead to even more counter opportunities as we take advantage of their errors and lack of equal pace. Here are the efficiency stats for each side:
| att | def | ovr | |
| Tottenham | 0.633 | 0.679 | 0.656 |
| Liverpool | 0.54 | 0.645 | 0.593 |
As you can see, Tottenham were superior, they just weren't able to take advantage of their chances. That could have been due to Liverpool's defence or Spurs' incompetence.
4. Do I really have to start calculating 'forced back passes'?
Tottenham were forced to make 94 backward passes in Liverpool's third out of 121 completed overall. They attempted 95 and 160 respectively, which means that 38 times the ball either went out of bounds or changed possession. It also means they were only able to continue their forward attack on 27 passes.
5. Liverpool can play defence when they want to.
28 tackles, 14 interceptions, 45 clearances, and 2 blocked shots, that's quite a line. Not to mention the clean sheet. The good part is we can play better and will need to when we have to play the real contenders. The moments of communication breakdown were quite evident versus Spurs and others will punish us for that.
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