Saturday, September 20, 2014

Liverpool to lose? Noble to score? Can Gerrard reach 10? What the markets say...

I was a bit worried when I saw the amount of bets placed on Liverpool to win, but upon further investigation I realized the line movement didn't justify my concern.  Still a 5/6 payoff isn't worth a go.

To win:
Liverpool5/664.80%
West Ham4/118.00%
Draw16/517.20%


There are only six players total from both squads who have scored in this fixture.  Gerrard has scored 9 times in 21 matches versus the Hammers which equals the amount of all the other players combined.  The other five are Mark Noble (2), Glen Johnson (3), Carlton Cole (2), Guy Demel (1) and Mamadou Sakho (1).  Only two players have scored for both sides, Gerrard and Demel.  Noble at 25/1 as first goalscorer and 8/1 for anytime goalscorer is worth a small wager and if you're feeling particularly lucky, Guy Demel is 50/1 as first and 26/1 anytime.

First goalscorer:
Balotelli5/146.00%
Sterling15/214.00%
Valencia17/212.00%
Noble25/16.00%
Borini15/24.00%
D. Sakho9/1
Coutinho8/1
Markovic8/1
Gerrard10/1
Cole10/1
Lovren25/1
Downing25/1
Skrtel25/1
Song35/1
Moreno35/1
Manquillo40/1
G. Johnson40/1
M. Sakho40/1
Demel50/1

Unlike last week, where Liverpool dominated the final score bets, the draw wagers are coming into play today.  The 'favorite' West Ham gambles are 2-1 and 1-0, both at 16/1.  If you think Liverpool will thump the Hammers at Upton, 4-0 is a hefty 28/1 pay back.

Correct score:
Liverpool3-114/114.63%
Draw0-014/112.20%
Liverpool2-18/110.98%
Draw1-115/29.76%
Draw2-215/17.32%
Liverpool1-09/1
West Ham2-116/1
West Ham1-016/1
Liverpool4-028/1

As I mentioned above, Noble is a decent bet at anytime goalscorer.  The great English hope, 'Pretty Hair' Lallana, is getting a little love here as well with 3.23% of all wagers betting he'll net his first for the 'Pool.

Anytime scorer:
Balotelli11/838.71%
Valencia11/429.03%
Sterling9/416.13%
Borini9/43.23%
Lallana31/103.23%
D. Sakho10/3
Zarate3/1
Cole7/2
Henderson5/1
Noble8/1
Gerrard10/3
G. Johnson14/1
M. Sakho14/1
Coutinho7/2
Kouyoute11/1
Demel26/1

The last goalscorer bet is always an interesting one, you've got to think a late match striker sub would be the best wager, thus Lambert and Cole seem like decent shots.  The problem with Lambert is the return is only 5/1, while Cole is much better at 9/1.  Jordan Henderson at 16/1 seems possible as well.

Last goalscorer:
Lambert5/1
Cole9/1
Gerrard10/1
Henderson16/1

No one will likely score a hat-trick, but it's always fun for a small wager.

Score hat-trick:
Balotelli28/1
Sterling66/1
Gerrard100/1

Man of the match betting has been interesting to say the least.  Moreno, for some reason, seems a popular pick and at 33/1, it's worth a meager go.  Song is also getting some action at 20/1, him winning would not surprise me either.  Sterling has been garnering the favorite for a few matches and that doesn't change here at 5/1.  Mark Noble is the dark horse and at 25/1, it's a nice reward for the risk.

Man of the match:
Moreno33/138.10%
Song20/119.05%
Sterling5/114.29%
Valencia12/114.29%
Lallana12/14.76%
Balotelli6/1
Gerrard8/1
Noble25/1

Other fun bets are an own goal scored (by either side) at 9/1 and the always volatile Balotelli to get a card 11/4.  Cheers and happy betting.

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