Liverpool 1, Everton 1: The Toffees have won the league!

Liverpool took a step in the right direction today, whether it was baby steps or a Neil Armstrong leap, we'll have to wait and see, but at least some of our issues of late look to have been addressed.  First, we played much better defense.  We shut down Everton nearly every opportunity that arose, especially when they tried to infiltrate the box.  It was more or less written in stone that the Blues would have to score from outside the area and of course, they did.  It doesn't take away from a valiant effort of defending, holding Everton to a single luck goal is an admirable achievement considering they've scored at least two goals in every other Prem match they've played.

It is also quite evident Rodgers gave his boys full permission to fire away though he should have taken that privilege from Balotelli after the half.  We took 24 shots, 10 from Balotelli alone, though only 8 were on-target.  A different story than Middlesbrough on Tuesday when we only took 11 shots in regulation.  Being a constant threat from anywhere around the goal opened lanes, allowing us easier access for runs and passes into the box.

As for individual performances, Jordan Henderson made some world class passes in the first half reminiscent of his captain.  He also created four chances, had five tackles, three interceptions, and completed 91% of his passes.  Sterling was outstanding as well, creating six chances and successful on five take-ons.  Gerrard put on a clinic in passing, completing 91%, going 3 for 4 on crosses and 7 for 8 on long balls, not to mention that class free kick goal.  Moreno, Lovren, Skrtel, Manquillo, and Coutinho all played well as well.

The not-so-good starts with Lallana.  How can anyone call that a great performance? He did little else other than dribble the ball and tackle out-of-bounds, take the Anglo-Saxon halo off his head and he'd been booed off the pitch for being a 26-year-old Championship quality player.  He is paid to create goals and he had nothing to do with it today.  Markovic was woeful as well, but first, he's 20-years-old, this is his first season playing Engliish football, and go back and look at the service he got, very few players in the world could have done anything with some of those passes.  I'm also not so sure he's comfortable in his role in the side, he's a winger, where he played a lot of the match, but it looked like Rodgers wanted him to play a more central, 'hole' position, which he looked uncomfortable and out-of-place when he did.

Finally, we get to Mr. Balotelli.  What a crock match from him.  When Sturridge comes back, we won't see a better Balotelli, we probably will hardly see him at all.  At least not for a while.  Benching him, making him a super sub and forcing him to play his way back into the side is probably best for all.  Make him learn his role the hard way.  A couple of those things he needs to learn is making runs and creating space.  When he's being marked, he seems to always just stand in the middle of the box, instead of moving about to allow other players to make runs or shoot.  Also, he needs to work on his timing, Markovic made the only decent run all day.  We could do with less of the antics as well.

This match reminded me of a few years ago when we would dominate matches, but were unable to score much and our opponents would get a wonder goal to win or draw.  The Champions league Marseille match when Valbuena scored that amazing curlier from outside of the box for the win comes to mind.  There were definite improvements all-round today and we are on the right track, but we can't let a luck goal knock us off our rail and distract us from our objectives.  We go to Basel on Wednesday and if he's not back by then, Sturridge should be ready for West Brom next Saturday.

Liverpool may throttle Boro

From the looks of it, a win by Liverpool is likely though a convincing one is in doubt.  A trusted source has told me that there is a lot of money on Middlesbrough to win, which usually means a lot of people will lose money.  Whether by wind or wonder, the house usually wins.  The North Yorkshire club is also dominating final score and 'will qualify' wagering, meaning if it goes into extra time or pens.

Another reason LFC may win convincingly is the shear amount of firepower in midfield that Rodgers has decided to unleash upon Boro at Anfield today.  Sterling and Markovic have the weaponry to tear the Championship sides to threads and leave a few morsels of poaching for Lambert.  Oh, Lalllana is playing as well, but seeing his first two mediocre performances against more legitimate sides, a 'fantastic' performance for him would be pretentious and lead one to believe that maybe he belongs in second-tier football.

I'm sort of disappointed, but also surprised at Rodgers' selections.  Suso deserves a chance and if he could show a commanding performance against the 5th place Teesside club, it may be a stepping stone for time against more formidable opponents.  I think he'll get to see the pitch at some point today though, hopefully more than just a cameo.

The surprise is that Mignolet is starting, but maybe that's our gaffer's way of punishing the Belgian for his recent sub-par performances.  Also no Sinclair? I thought for sure he'd he get a spot on the bench, but apparently Welsh defender Jordan Williams gets the call.  Could be a tactical move who knows? Well, match starts soon, come on you Reds.

Lazar to get off the Markovic? Liverpool to win 6-0? What the markets say...

Aston Villa to win at 11/1 seems like a decent gamble and 45.92% of all bettors agree.  Looks like a sucker bet to me and Liverpool at 1/3 isn't worth the return.  5/1 for a draw seems to high, expect Liverpool to win.

To win:
Aston Villa	11/1	45.92%
Liverpool	1/3	43.78%
Draw	5/1	10.30%

A lot of people seem to think Sterling will be the first to score and there's a nice pay off if they're right, but if I was a betting man, I'd go with Balotelli or even Gerrard.  Hopefully someone doesn't bet on Studge.

First goalscorer:
Sterling	6/1	39.02%
Balotelli	15/4	24.39%
Weimann	16/1	7.32%
Gerrard	8/1	4.88%
Coutinho	10/1	4.88%
Markovic	7/1
Lambert	7/2
Agbonlahor	14/1
Borini	6/1
Henderson	10/1
Sturridge	14/5

The market is giving Aston Villa much of a chance when it comes to the final tally.  The lowest odds for the visiting side to win is 1-0 and that's at 25/1.  Liverpool at 12/1 for 4-0 looks intriguing and a tiny wager on 6-0 at 50/1 wouldn't hurt.  Apparently most bettors think Villa will double their average goals per a match and score twice against Liverpool.  It's possible, just not very probable.  

Correct score:
Liverpool	4-2	40/1	13.89%
Liverpool	3-0	17/2	11.11%
Liverpool	3-1	11/1	8.33%
Liverpool	2-0	6/1
Liverpool	4-0	12/1
Liverpool	5-0	25/1
Liverpool	6-0	50/1

Bettors overwhelmingly think Balotelli will score at some point in the match and the 19/20 pay off shows it.  Even Markovic with a 21/10 return is not that great off odds.  Henderson at 4/1 or Lovren at 6/1 look like good wagers to me.

Anytime scorer:
Balotelli	19/20	71.43%
Lambert	6/5	9.52%
Bent	6/1	4.76%
Henderson	4/1
Lovren	6/1
Markovic	21/10

Balotelli to score 3 is awfully low at 20/1 and there's a great pay-off if either Markovic gets hot or free-kicks and penalties come into play for Gerrard.

Score hat-trick:
Balotelli	20/1
Markovic	80/1
Gerrard	50/1

Balotelli to score a brace is not that great of a payoff either, Markovic and Gerrard seem most likely again but the return is much less.  Henderson at 25/1 here seems like a decent wager.

Two or more goals:
Balotelli	9/2
Markovic	14/1
Gerrard	12/1

Bettors and bookmakers agree that Sterling will be Man of the Match, but since the pay-off isn't that great and there usually isn't much money bet on these kind of perks, it could happen.  Vlaar at 22/1 though, yeah, good luck.  The best bet is probably Balotelli at 6/1, but I like Henderson at 12/1 and Markovic as a long shot at 14/1 though the return isn't that great.

Man of the match:
Sterling	4/1	37.50%
Vlaar	22/1	25.00%
Balotelli	6/1
Gerrard	4/1
Henderson	12/1
Markovic	14/1

Finally, who do you think will most likely get shown a card?  Yeah, me too, and at 3/1 he isn't even the favorite.  Hutton and Lucas are, which isn't that surprising.

Shown a card:
Balotelli	3/1
Hutton	7/4
Lucas	7/4

Suso to score? Liverpool to win 3-2? What the betting markets are saying.

To win:
Man City   13/15  60.21%
Liverpool   10/3    20.64%
Draw          3/1     19.15%

Not enough money on City and too much of a pay off to expect a win/draw tomorrow, but the market isn't always right.

First to score:
Sergio Aguero      9/2    17.65%
Raheem Sterling   11/1   17.65%
No goal scorer     14/1   17.65%
Edin Dezeko         5/1    11.76%
Daniel Sturridge    7/1      8.82%

I actually like Jovetic here at 6/1, Y. Toure is good value at 7/1 but he played deep against Newcastle and think he may do the same here.  Lazar Markovic at 14/1 is a stretch, but if he makes the pitch I expect him to try his damnest to score on his debut, especially against the champs.

Other decent first to score bets: Silva 10/1, Nasri 9/1, Gerrard 14/1, & Skrtel 33/1.
Shots in the dark: Milner 22/1, Manquillo 66/1, Lazar Markovic 14/1, & Bacary Sagna 45/1
Sucker bets: Lambert 10/1 (that number is way too low) & Borini 9/1

Correct Final Score:
Liverpool 3-2   35/1   13.64%
Draw 1-1          8/1    11.36%
Draw 0-0         16/1    9.85%
Draw 2-2         14/1    9.09%
Man City 4-2   50/1    7.58%

The other favorites are City 2-1 (8/1) and City 1-0 (19/2). I am shocked that anyone thinks we will score 3 against City, their defence is just too good.  If we do win, it'll be 2-1 or 1-0, but I think we'll be lucky to get away with a draw.  The Liverpool fan in me says 'Pool 2-0, the pragmatic, intelligent football analyst says Citeh with an emphatical 3-0 win.  Sorry, but we are not on their level... yet.  If Markovic plays and shows he is the talent he's built up to be, then I will be more optimistic.

Draw No Bet:
Man City     2/5   77.78%
Liverpool  28/13  22.22%

That's not good.

Anytime Goalscorer:
Stevan Jovetic      2/1    27.78%
Daniel Sturridge  11/5   16.67%
Raheem Sterling   7/2    16.67%
David Silva          7/2      5.56%
Suso                    5/1      5.56%

Suso? Really? He was no where near the bench on match day one and now that Markovic and possibly Lallana are fit, he probably won't even be in the stands.  Jovetic is crazy at 2/1, which puts a first goalscorer bet in jeopardy as well.  Sturridge, Aguero (6/4),and Dzeko (6/4) would be my picks.  My long shots would be Coutinho (5/1), Kolarov (13/2), and Skrtel (14/1).

Man of the Match:
David Silva                12/1   56.25%
Jordan Henderson     18/1    31.25%
Sergio Aguero            7/1     12.50%

Yaya Toure (7/1), Raheem Sterling (9/1), and any goalkeeper (16/1) seem like decent bets.

Bets if you're feeling lucky:
Kolarov to score 2 or more goals 75/1
The Serbian left back is just the sort of player who has the big game against us.

Henderson to receive a card (5/1)
Henderson and Oliver have a 'history'.

Man City by a goal (11/4)
This is logically the most likely result, but logical people don't gamble much.

Karim 'Mercedes' Benzema is no Daniel 'La Ferrari' Sturridge

I have a mate who for years has been emphatically saying we should sign Benzema.  I just don't see it.  I don't think he's as good as advertised, but I've never crunched the numbers, so let's see how his stats from last season size-up with Sturridge.

	Benzema	Sturridge
npgp90	0.56	0.83
gcp90	0.85	1.1
ccp90	2.07	1.2
ap90	0.3	0.28
ccv	14.5	23.3
pass%	81.9	79.3
bp%	46.4	53.4
sacc%	45.1	42.4
shot%	16.7	21.2
TTI90	9.7	11
gap90	1.05	1.23
gsp90	2.75	2.7
gop90	1.7	1.47
tgop	1.74	1.32

Benzema's output isn't overwhelmingly impressive and definitely not worthy of £35-40m, which is his asking price.  Sturridge is the more prolific scorer and shows a higher football intelligence with his higher chance created value and shot percentage.  It's not that Benzema is wasteful in his pass and shot selection, he's just not as adept as our number 15.  Having superior pace than most forwards, Sturridge needs a set-up man with better pasing capabilities than Benzema, suprisingly we may already have that player in Rickie Lambert (18.6 ccv).

If we sign Markovic, I'm not sure we need any more attack-minded players.  We definitely don't need a player like Benzema, who does a lot of things well, but nothing in particular great.  The fact that he is surrounded by the caliber of player that he is at Madrid, his stats should at least show him to be more efficient.

Forget Benzema, forget trying to outscore our opponents every match, we need to go defensive.  One player we should try to buy is Real Sociedad's 21-year-old defensive midfielder Ruben Pardo.  He'll be the subject of my next post.

Not Bob Loblaw's Transfers Log Blog

Here are links to posts from the last month or so on various potential transfer targets and players we have already signed:

Wilfred Bony
Marco Reus
Ben Davies
Antoine Griezmann & Carlos Vela
DeAndre Yedlin
Memphis Depay
Dejan Lovren
Klaas-Jan Huntelaar
Ryan Bertrand
Toby Anderweireld
Lazar Markovic
Divock Origi
Marcelo
Jason Davidson
Daley Blind
Ricardo Rodriguez
Luke Shaw
Alexis Sanchez
Emre Can
Adam Lallana

Anyone else I should do a stat check & comparison on? Let me know in the comments or email me (go to contact page). Cheers.

Shaqiri, Rojo, Sanchez, & Origi: The transfer vultures are circling

Though it appears Lazar Markovic is a likely signing, others who were once possibly on our radar are gone or slowly disappearing.  Of the four I listed in this post's title, the only one whom I'm disappointed about is Shaqiri. Apparently Bayern Munich offered him more money, but will that translate into more playing time for the loaded German side? Not that he'll be handed a spot at Liverpool, but Der FCB isn't called 'FC Hollywood' for nothing.

Apparently Roma are now in talks to sign the Swiss International.  If I were Shaqiri and an Serie A club came for me with an offer equivalent or greater than what I could make anywhere else, I'd sign faster than an imploding Brazilian defense.  Shaqiri will run rampant in Italy and his has the technical prowess to persevere as well.

Personally I have not been all the impressed with Marcos Rojo at the World Cup.  He's got that WC hype feeling.  He has received praises for his play in Portugal, but his stats do not overwhelm other than his card collection of 14 yellows and 3 reds in 33 matches.  If that's not a red flag, I don't know what is.

I don't care about Sanchez.  He prefers Arsenal and that tells me he's absolutely clueless.  The reason being his family wants to 'live in London' is just lame.  Oh well, have fun getting rotated to death and make sure not to make Arsene angry, you wouldn't like him when he's angry.

Finally we get to Origi, who I have already written about. Now there are reports that Spurs are interested in him.  I couldn't care less either way considering we would probably loan him back to Lille anyhow.  Seems ridiculous to me to spend £10m for a player just to loan him back to the club we bought him from.  What are we, Chelsea now? And if Origi wants to know how things will probably work out for him at Tottenham, I suggest he give Erik Lamela a call.

Oh and we missed out on Ashley Cole.  You can only imagine the tears.  Let's just hope we 'miss out' on Bertrand as well.  I will really be crying then.

Lazar Markovic: quick as Messi, crafty as Zlatan

The player we have latest been linked to is Benfica and Serbian winger/striker Lazar Markovic.  He is 20-years-old, 175cm (5'9"), lightning quick, and has a skill set that reminds me of Zlatan Ibrahimovic.

For some reason finding statistics for Liga Sagres is very difficult, even if I spoke Portuguese.  I won't even get into stats from the Serbian SuperLiga, if anything more than superficial exist.  Here's what I could throw together:

app (sub)	96
mins	6318
goals	19
assists	18
chances	7*
npg90	0.27
gcp90	0.53
ccp90	0.88*
pass	316**
att	398**
pass %	79.4*
bp %	60.6*
sacc %	50*
shot %	12.5**
TTI90	9**

* stats are only from European matches in 2013-14 for Benfica

** stats are from European matches in 2012-13 for Partizan Belgrade & 2013-14 for Benfica

Overall, not that impressive, but he does show flashes of brilliance and he did just turn 20 in March.  He also tends to command influence in his performances as shown in this video:

Is he worth the £25m though? Potentially yes, but it's quite risky.  He's an exciting player with a decade of football ahead of him.  Statistically, he doesn't blow anyone away, especially his back pass percentage, but he does create a goal every other match.

I'm not one who advocates spending that kind of cash for a potential superstar, but I'm on the fence with Markovic.  There's just something about him that makes me think he's going to be quite special in a few years and it would be a shame if Liverpool lost out.

Adam Lallana is not even worth £15m

Again, like Lambert,  I like Lallana, but not for £15m... maybe £8m.  Apparently Southampton now want upwards of £25m, that's just laughable.  There are many other players out there that are just as good, if not better, that we can get for that much or less and honestly, do we really need another midfielder right now?  We have Suso back, who is only 20, and I think Jordon Ibe at least deserves a chance.

If they are going to spend £20m+ for an attacking midfielder, it should be for a young, talented, and somewhat proven player like Xherdan Shaqiri, Lazar Markovic, or even a forward/winger like Cristian Tello (who won't cost as much btw).  Lallana is 26 and he'll need to improve as much next season as he did the last, if he's even worth £15m.  I just don't see that happening, especially with all the competition at Anfield.

An interesting read: Xherdan Shaqiri vs Adam Lallana