The top 5 worst possible forward transfers

Note that these are, or were, actual targets unlike Michael Chopra, Andy Carroll, or my cousin Leroy.

5. Salomon Kalou
Salomon Kalou is a conundrum.  Is he any good? Was he ever good?  When he transferred from Feyenoord to Chelsea in 2006, he was coming off two productive years where he scored 42 goals in 80 matches in all competitions.  Interestingly enough, his strike mate at the Eredivisie club was Dirk Kuyt, who scored 61 goals in 82 matches over that same span.  Read the rest of this post here

4. Ezequiel Lavezzi
Ezequiel Lavezzi is like a fine wine, he's gotten better with age, but is he good enough to help Liverpool win?  He doesn't score many goals, he has more than his fair share of turnovers, and he's an average passer at best, though he does make his passes count.  Over the past five seasons, he has a 2.03 chances created per 90 and a chance created value of 10.67%, both above average numbers in any league. Read more of this post here

3. Jay Rodriguez
Jay Rodriguez isn't worth £1.9m, yet alone 19! That is absurd.  There just can't be any truth to Rodgers being interested in him.  If so, somebody needs to set his head right, because that's certifiable. Are these stats worthy of a £19m attacking midfielder/winger/forward? To see his stats and read the rest of this post, go here.

2. Mauro Icardi
I don't really get all the hoopla about Icardi, other than stealing fellow teammate's wives and having a decent though far from amazing career goal scoring rate of 0.5 per 90 minutes, there is nothing statistically impressive about him.  He's not a good passer (68% pass completion rate) nor creator for his teammates (0.92 chances created per 90 minutes) and he can't even dribble past defenders in the pace-challenged Serie A (0.5 successfull dribbles per 90 at a 20% success rate).  Inter want £24m for him, even if he leaves his wife in Italy, that's entirely too much for potential alone.

1. Fred
I was browsing message boards the other day, for self-esteem reasons of course, when I found quite a few 'pro-Fred' postings.  At first I thought that there must be some younger, lesser known Brazilian striker going by that same moniker, but apparently not.  (Yes, I am aware of the Brazilian attacking midfielder at Shaktar Donetsk.)  Honestly, I was shocked to see supporters backing his purchase, did they watch the World Cup? He was absolutely useless.

On top of that, even if he posted 'World Class' stats, which he doesn't (about a goal scored every other match, good but not great, and average passing stats at best), it would take a boatload of cash to get him to leave Brazil.  That's surprising considering what happened there this summer.  His stay at Lyon left a bad taste in his mouth regarding European football and made him homesick, I don't think he'll find himself in a much better situation anywhere in England.

Jay Rodriguez for £19m?! I must be taking crazy pills.

Jay Rodriguez isn't worth £1.9m, yet alone 19! That is absurd.  There just can't be any truth to Rodgers being interested in him.  If so, somebody needs to set his head right, because that's certifiable. Are these stats worthy of a £19m attacking midfielder/winger/forward?

Southampton 2013-14

npgp90	gcp90	ccp90	ap90	ccv
0.53	0.63	0.7	0.11	14.3
pass%	bp%	sacc%	shot%	TTI90
76.6	49	31.7	14.9	12.9
gap90	gsp90	gop90	tgop	gopd90
1.37	1.51	0.14	0.21	-0.07

Southampton 2012-13

npgp90	gcp90	ccp90	ap90	ccv
0.25	0.45	0.74	0.21	27.8
pass%	bp%	sacc%	shot%	TTI90
73.8	-	36	6.7	14.4
gap90	gsp90	gop90	tgop	gopd90
1.61	1.2	-0.41	-0.29	0.12

I'll save you the trouble and say 'Hell no!' Rodriguez is not good enough to wear the Liverpool shirt.  It's bad enough we grossly overpaid for his former teammate, but he shouldn't even be in the picture.  Whomever says we should buy him, should be committed, immediately.

Not a single stat above could be deemed 'outstanding'.  He does have great chances created value numbers, but that's mainly due to lack of created chances more than anything.  He had a total of 38 for the past two seasons combined.  For perspective, Glen Johnson had 74 over the same span.

Rodriguez is clearly poor on the ball.  His turnover rate and passing percentages are dismal.  He did see slight improvement from one season to the next, but he'll be 25 by the end of the month.  His performance curve can't go too much higher.

Seriously, Rodgers, Rodriguez? I'm hoping he was mis-heard and really said Ricardo Rodriguez.  If not, we need to find where the real Rodgers is being held and get rid of his reptilian humanoid doppelganger sent by Malcolm Glazer from his invisible spaceship.  This hyperreality is making me lose my mind.

Not Bob Loblaw's Transfers Log Blog

Here are links to posts from the last month or so on various potential transfer targets and players we have already signed:

Wilfred Bony
Marco Reus
Ben Davies
Antoine Griezmann & Carlos Vela
DeAndre Yedlin
Memphis Depay
Dejan Lovren
Klaas-Jan Huntelaar
Ryan Bertrand
Toby Anderweireld
Lazar Markovic
Divock Origi
Marcelo
Jason Davidson
Daley Blind
Ricardo Rodriguez
Luke Shaw
Alexis Sanchez
Emre Can
Adam Lallana

Anyone else I should do a stat check & comparison on? Let me know in the comments or email me (go to contact page). Cheers.

Southampton must be laughing all the way to the bank

What a terrible bit of business.  Buying Lallana for a reported £27m may end up being worse than United buying Herrera for £32m.  He wasn't even the most efficient attacking midfielder at Southampton last season and furthermore he didn't separate himself enough from his teammates to justify his price tag.

	Lallana	Rodriguez	Davis	Ward-Prose	Ramirez
age	26	24	29	19	23
app (sub)	37(1)	30(3)	28(6)	16(18)	3(15)
mins	3082	2561	2492	1616	526
goals	9	15	2	0	1
assists	6	3	7	2	3
chances	68	20	57	39	14
npg90	0.26	0.53	0.07	0	0.17
gcp90	0.44	0.63	0.32	0.11	0.69
ccp90	1.9	0.7	2.1	2.2	2.4
ap90	0.21	0.11	0.25	0.11	0.52
ccv	11.1	14.3	11.9	5	21.7
pass %	84.6	76.6	84.3	87.2	80.9
bp %	50.3	49	42.4	43.6	38.9
sacc %	41.4	31.7	21.8	35	23.8
shot %	18	14.9	6	0	4.8
TTI90	13.9	12.9	13.2	9.2	19.5
avg rk	2.9	3	3.1	3.3	2.6

Gaston Ramirez who played sparsely due to falling out of favor with Pochettino and injuries comes out on top. Lallana comes second, but only barely ahead of Rodriguez & Steven Davis. If Lallana is worth £27m, Rodriguez is worth at least that much being he is 2 years younger and Steven Davis should not be sold for anything less than £20m. And what about 19-year-old James Ward-Prose? He is already a better passer and turns over the ball much less at 7 years Lallana's junior. He's got to be worth £50m to Man United and at least £30m to the rest of the Prem.

Those numbers above are not worth £27 and the argument that it is because 'he's English' just proves my point. He's a product of the English press hype machine. We paid £8.8m for Coutinho, less than one-third what we did for Lallana, the Brazilian is still only 22-years-old and already a better player.  Basically we just paid that much for someone to keep the seats warm for Gerrard, Hendo, Sterling, Can, and Coutinho.

United buy Ander & Luke Shaw for £60m+, way to go NUMPTIES!

Wow, I haven't seen a bad bit of business like this in a long time.  Especially not in a single day. Ander Herrera will be 25-years-old by the time Premier League season starts and he's never been called up to play for his country.  Is this the kind of player Man U has stooped too?  Don't get me wrong, he's a good player, but he's no where near worth £30m. Let's see how he stacks up against our midfield:

	Herrera	Sterling	Gerrard	Can	Coutinho	Hendo
age	25*	19	34	20	22	24
app (sub)	31(2)	24(9)	33(1)	24(5)	28(5)	35
mins	2548	2220	2895	2190	2323	3129
goals	5	9	13	3	5	4
assists	5	5	13	3	7	7
chances	53	51	67	16	64	62
npg90	0.18	0.36	0.09	0.12	0.19	0.12
gcp90	0.35	0.57	0.81	0.25	0.47	0.32
ccp90	1.9	2.1	2.1	0.7	2.5	1.8
pass %	80.6	81.7	85.9	77.9	80.6	87.1
bp %	40.6	46.8	30.6	39.6	36.7	41.2
sacc %	27.9	48.9	51.7	31.4	28.7	32.7
shot %	7.4	20	27.1	12	7	8.2
TTI90	15.3	12.1	10.9	13.2	11	9.5

His numbers are most comparable to Coutinho and Henderson. Our Brazilian produces more chances and turns over the ball much less.  Need I remind anyone that we got him for £8.8m? Three times less, three years younger, and more productive.

Henderson is the far superior passer, turns over the ball much less, and is nearly a year younger.  Dalglish was ridiculed for paying around £16m for Henderson, but compared to what Man U gave Atletico Bilbao for Ander, he looks like a genius.

I've had my say about Luke Shaw. If he turns out to be as productive as Kolarov, his price is somewhat justfied, but he's got a lot of work to get there and he's got to stay healthy to do so.  Southampton must be laughing all the way to the bank, £20m was probably too much.

The thing that pisses me off more than anything is that buys like these severrely skew the market value of players.  Brendan Rodgers has made some really bad buys (Borini & Aspas come to mind), but Coutinho and Sturridge help us forget.  I have a feeling Can, who we got for £10.5m, will end up being a great add as well. 

Man U seems to lack the ability to make deals via leverage and just splashes the cash to avoid negotiation.  If a player wants to leave a club and his valuation is surpassed, it's hard for the retaining club to deny such a transaction.  Luke Shaw is not worth £30m, but unfortunately Ricardo Rodriguez is now probably worth £50m because of deals like these.

And then there's Marcelo...

I've been through nearly every left back out there that has been linked with Liverpool except Real Madrid's Marcelo.  I'm not sure how much they would want for him, but I would assume they wouldn't take less than £22m.  Personally, I think he's overrated, let's see if I'm right:

	Marcelo	Moreno	Rodriguez	Shaw
age	26	22*	21	19
app(subs)	24(4)	27(2)	34	35
mins	2177	2414	3060	2990
goals	1	3	5	0
assist	6	0	9	1
chances	44	19	78	33
npgp90	0.04	0.11	0.09	0
gcp90	0.29	0.11	0.41	0.03
ccp90	1.8	0.71	2.3	0.99
pass%	85.1	78.9	80.5	79
bp%	41.6	36.5	44.6	41.6
sacc%	25	17	55.3	41.7
shot%	4	13	13.2	0
tp90	2.9	1.9	3.1	2.2
tack %	57.9	39.6	57.7	58.7
intp90	1.4	2.7	1.9	1.1
clrp90	1.7	1.6	2.8	3.7
dribpp90	0.6	0.8	0.8	0.7
bsp90	0.08	0.3	0.4	0.1
adwp90	0.7	1	3.1	1.8
adwon%	41	50	56.2	56.5
TTI90	10.2	8.5	11.1	11.6

The Brazilian ties for last in overall ranking with Luke Shaw at 2.75, second is Moreno at 2.63, and coming out on top with a score of 1.75 is Ricardo Rodriguez.  Clearly we will have to over pay for Marcelo if his contribution is as equal to Shaw and the latter is 7 years his junior.

The only thing Marcelo does really well is pass the ball and he's a decent tackler, but he was either last or second to last in all other defensive categories.  He is especially poor when it comes to aerial duels, not only did he have the lowest per 90, but also the lowest success percentage.

Once again Rodriguez shows how he is the business, I will be shocked if he starts next season in a Wolfsburg shirt.  The only way Rodgers should even consider bringing in Marcelo is at discount of say £10m, but I doubt that'll happen.

Luke Shaw for £27m? No thanks, we got Flanagan

Rumor has it Luke Shaw is headed to Man U for £27m.  That's a preposterous amount for a player who will definitely not become the next Gareth Bale.  In fact, he'll be lucky if he can become the next Leighton Baines or Aleksandar Kolarov.  Here's a look at stats from last season for Shaw, Flanagan, and a few other top left backs:

	Shaw	Flanagan	Baines	Azpilicueta	Kolarov
age	19*	21	29	24	28
app(subs)	35	23	32	26(3)	21(9)
mins	2990	1890	2838	2325	1977
goals	0	1	5	0	1
assist	1	1	4	0	7
chances	33	13	48	12	34
npgp90	0	0.05	0.06	0	0.05
gcp90	0.03	0.1	0.29	0	0.36
ccp90	0.99	0.62	1.5	0.47	1.6
pass%	79	83.7	85.8	80.6	81.2
bp%	41.6	42.6	41.4	37.1	43.5
sacc%	41.7	42.9	23.8	40	24.5
shot%	0	14.3	23.8	0	1.9
tp90	2.2	3.8	3	3.8	2.3
tack %	58.7	45.7	60.3	52.9	56.2
intp90	1.1	1.9	1.1	1.9	1.4
clrp90	3.7	3.6	2.5	5.3	2.8
dribpp90	0.7	1.9	0.6	1.1	0.8
bsp90	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.1
adwp90	1.8	1.4	0.4	1.3	1.7
adwon%	56.5	46.8	41.2	58.6	71.7
TTI90	11.6	9.2	9.1	10.1	10.9

* Shaw will turn 19 next month.

Compared to Flanagan, Shaw is the better chance creator, more efficient tackler, and significantly superior in the air, but our number 38 has a higher pass rate, nearly doubles his counterpart's tackles and clearances, and holds onto the ball better.  If Southampton were to offer Shaw for Flanagan, Rodgers would be an idiot not to take them up on it, but that would never happen.  It's not that Shaw is that much better than our 'Red Cafu' and the distance between their productivity may never be much, but Shaw has more potential.

Comparing Shaw to the others above, he is probably most similar to Kolarov.  The Serbian is a great attacking left back, but is not an exceptional defender like Azpilicueta.  Would I have paid £27m for Kolarov at (soon-to-be) 19, if I had known then what I do now? Probably, but with Shaw there's no such luxury.  It's still a crap shoot with all that can happen in his young career.

The one thing that will improve at a bigger club is the quality of his teammates.  No offense to Southampton, but Adam Lallana is no Steven Gerrard and Rickie Lambert is not even a poor man's Rooney.  Having players around him who are quicker and more talented overall should improve his numbers.  It certainly helps Kolarov.

If I've said it once, I've said 'til your eyes bleed, if we are going to splash that kind of cash for a left back or really any player, it should be Ricardo Rodriguez. He is the real deal and can provide coverage on the wing as well.  Shaw is just not worth the risk when we have fully capable coverage in Flanagan.