Ben Davies is the Welsh Jon Flanagan

Apparently plan C to sign a left back is Ben Davies, 21-year-old Welsh International who plays for the Swans.  His stats from last season are eerily similar to those of our Jon Flanagan.

	Davies	Flanagan
age	21	21
app(subs)	32(2)	23
mins	2874	1890
p90	31.9	21
goals	2	1
assist	1	1
chances	31	13
npgp90	0.06	0.05
gcp90	0.09	0.1
ccp90	0.97	0.62
ap90	0.03	0.05
ccv	3.1	8.1
pass%	84.3	83.7
bp%	35.9	42.6
sacc%	33.3	42.9
shot%	22.2	14.3
TTI90	9.7	9.2
gap90	1.47	1.81
gsp90	1.45	3
gop90	-0.02	1.19
tgop	0	1.32
tp90	2.38	3.8
tack %	42.1	45.7
intp90	1.97	1.9
clrp90	3.51	3.6
dribpp90	1.69	1.9
bsp90	0.34	0.2

Here are stats definitions, if so needed.

So why would we want to bring in Flanagan's statistical doppleganger? Well, Davies  does play for Swansea and though they are respectable, they did not finish second in the league.  Davies would probably benefit from having more skilled teammates and playing in a more attack-minded side.

I think it all comes down to cost.  He is only 21 and having both he and Flanagan cover the left back position for the next 8 or so years certainly is appealing.  They could even play together with one playing the wing and possibly interchanging during a match, but as I said prior, it's all about the quid.

Funny enough, Davies is valued at around £5m while Flanagan is only worth £1m.  Strange how the transfer market works, I guess it is believed that the Welshman has a bigger upside.  I can't see anybody paying more than £8m for Davies and even that is probably too much.  I don't know, I think I'd rather see us splash the cash for a sexier pick or just hold off until one falls into our hands.

Jose Enrique deserves the right to win his spot back

Whether we bring in another left back or not (hopefully not Moreno though), Jose Enrique has the right to win his place back.  If he can return from knee injury and produce as he did the season prior, he should be our first choice with Flanagan being the 'defensive'/cup option.

year	2010-11	2011-12	2012-13	2013-14
club	Newcastle	Liverpool	Liverpool	Liverpool
age	24	25	26	27
app(subs)	36	33(2)	25(4)	6(2)
mins	3123	2994	2257	604
p90	34.7	33.3	25.1	6.7
goals	0	0	2	0
assist	1	2	4	2
chances	30	36	26	8
npgp90	0	0	0.08	0
gcp90	0.03	0.06	0.24	0.3
ccp90	0.87	1.08	1.04	1.19
ap90	0.03	0.06	0.16	0.3
ccv	3.4	5.6	15.4	25.2
pass%	77	80.6	76.7	80.4
bp%	-	-	37	40.8
sacc%	21.1	23.1	36.4	50
shot%	0	0	9.1	0
TTI90	14	13.3	15.6	11.2
gap90	1	1.05	0.92	0.6
gsp90	1.04	1.2	1.91	1.64
gop90	0.04	0.15	0.99	1.04
tgop	-0.03	0.13	0.74	1.32
tp90	1.73	2.07	2.87	1.64
tack %	-	-	75.3	53.3
intp90	1.67	0.93	1.39	1.34
clrp90	1.76	1.41	1.95	2.99
dribpp90	0.26	0.36	0.36	0.3
bsp90	0.35	0.15	0.12	0.15

Even in the short time he saw the pitch last year, he impressed.  His 25.2 chance created value was ridiculously good and even 15.2 from the season before is solid.  His tackle success rate of  75.3% from his second year at LFC is phenomenal as well, basically he succeeded on three out of four tackles attempted.

So how does his season before compare to Flanagan and Moreno from last season?

	Enrique	Flanagan	Moreno
npgp90	0.08	0.05	0.11
gcp90	0.24	0.1	0.11
ccp90	1.04	0.62	0.71
ap90	0.16	0.05	0
ccv	15.4	8.1	0
pass%	76.7	83.7	78.9
bp%	37	42.6	36.5
sacc%	36.4	42.9	17
shot%	9.1	14.3	13
TTI90	15.6	9.2	8.5
gap90	0.92	1.81	1.6
gsp90	1.91	3	1.98
gop90	0.99	1.19	0.38
tgop	0.74	1.32	0.45
tp90	2.87	3.8	1.94
tack %	75.3	45.7	39.6
intp90	1.39	1.9	2.72
clrp90	1.95	3.6	1.64
dribpp90	0.36	1.9	0.82
bsp90	0.12	0.2	0.3

Enrique is the only one above who had a goals on pitch average higher than his team and his chance created value is unparalleled.  The damning stat is Enrique's TTI90, 15.7 is dreadful, but in the handful of matches he participated in last season, he had a TTI90 of 11.2.  That's not good, but hopefully it's at least a sign of progress.  Other than that, neither Flanagan nor Moreno offer more than Enrique other than potential and years left of service and that doesn't make the latter worth £20m.

Coutinho, Sterling, & Agger all had higher gopds than Suarez last year

The winner of 'goals on pitch difference' for Liverpool last season was Coutinho with Sterling and Agger coming up 2nd and 3rd respectively.  Similar to +/- that is used in basketball, gopd measures the amount of goals a team scored against amount allowed while that player is on the pitch.  Here are the results for relevant LFC players from last season:

	mins	pp90	ga	gap90	gs	gsp90	diff
Coutinho	2323	25.8	37	1.43	78	3.02	1.59
Sterling	2220	24.7	31	1.26	69	2.80	1.54
Agger	1421	15.8	18	1.14	42	2.66	1.52
Suarez	2962	32.9	47	1.43	96	2.92	1.49
Sturridge	2267	25.2	31	1.23	68	2.70	1.47
Johnson	2515	27.9	38	1.36	79	2.83	1.47
Henderson	3129	34.8	42	1.21	93	2.67	1.47
Allen	1443	16.0	21	1.31	44	2.75	1.44
Skrtel	3221	35.8	50	1.40	99	2.77	1.37
Gerrard	2895	32.2	44	1.37	86	2.67	1.30
Flanagan	1890	21.0	38	1.81	63	3.00	1.19
Lucas	1896	21.1	27	1.28	49	2.32	1.04
Toure	1443	16.0	20	1.25	36	2.25	1.00
Sakho	1478	16.4	25	1.52	38	2.32	0.79

The gopd average for Liverpool was 1.33 per match, which does not bode well for Gerrard and anyone else below him on the table.  Flanagan is particularly dreadful being his 3 goal scored per 90 is second highest, but his 1.81 goals allowed is worst.  I'm at a loss for words when it comes to Sakho, maybe he just isn't that good, and if you would have asked me last week if selling Lucas was a good idea, I would have said absolutely not, but now I'm beginning to wonder if he's no longer of much value.

I'm not surprised by any of the players in the top five except for maybe Agger, who we should truly not sell, but Johnson at sixth is perplexing.  I figured he'd be much worse.  Maybe we should hold on to him for a little bit longer.

By the way, of all players who played at least 1000 league minutes last season, Aly Cissokho had the highest goal scored per 90 at 3.05 and highest gopd at 1.73. Go figure.

Agger was our best defender last season, Sakho was worst

Last season Brendan Rodgers utlilized 16 different line-ups on the back line.  I remember back in the day when Benitez used to change the line-up that often, he was ridiculed as a 'tinkerer'.  The truth is, he was ahead of his time and most successful managers started to do the same including Mourinho and Ferguson. Nowadays it's the status quo for clubs involved in multiple competitions, especially Europe (Sorry Man U).

 Rodgers, though, had a ton of injury issues to deal with last season.  Sakho, Enrique, Johnson, Toure, and Agger all had injury spells, some multiple.  Here are those line-ups along with their stats:

				M	GA	GAPM	CS
Johnson	Toure	Agger	Enrique	2	0	0.00	2
Johnson	Skrtel	Agger	Enrique	1	0	0.00	1
Johnson	Skrtel	Agger	Cissohko	2	0	0.00	2
Johnson	Skrtel	Sakho	Flanagan	3	2	0.67	1
Toure	Skrtel	Agger	Sakho	1	1	1.00	0
Flanagan	Skrtel	Toure	Cissohko	4	4	1.00	1
Johnson	Skrtel	Agger	Flanagan	5	5	1.00	2
Toure	Skrtel	Sakho		5	7	1.40	0
Flanagan	Skrtel	Agger	Johnson	2	3	1.50	1
Wisdom	Skrtel	Sakho	Enrique	1	2	2.00	0
Johnson	Skrtel	Agger	Flanagan	2	4	2.00	0
Johnson	Skrtel	Sakho	Cissohko	1	2	2.00	0
Johnson	Skrtel	Sakho	Agger	1	2	2.00	0
Johnson	Skrtel	Sakho	Flanagan	5	10	2.00	0
Johnson	Skrtel	Toure	Cissohko	2	5	2.50	0
Johnson	Skrtel	Toure	Flanagan	1	3	3.00	0

Those are sorted by goals allowed per match and if we break it down per player:

	ms	ga	gapm	cs	cs%
Agger	16	15	0.94	8	0.50
Cissohko	9	11	1.22	3	0.33
Johnson	27	36	1.33	9	0.33
Toure	15	20	1.33	3	0.20
Skrtel	36	50	1.39	8	0.22
Flanagan	22	31	1.41	5	0.23
Sakho	17	26	1.53	1	0.06

It's pretty clear our most valuable player on the back line is Agger.  It's not even close.  In fact, we only had 2 clean sheets without him.  What's disappointing is Sakho appears to be the biggest liability.  One clean sheet in 17 starts and the highest goal allowed per match average at 1.53.

I'm not sure what Rodgers plans on doing since it was pretty clear by the end of last season that Skrtel and Sakho were his first choice centre backs.  If they continue last year's form, that's not acceptable.  Agger is our best defensive back and I don't know what else proof the gaffer needs.  We will not win the league next year unless we shore up our defense, no matter what hard decisions need to be made.  I like Sakho, but if that means sitting him, so be it.