LFC 2, Southampton 1: Great? No. Good? Not really. Lucky? Probably.

When I wrote my brief analysis yesterday on Man U's loss to Swansea at Old Trafford... that'll never get old... I mentioned that they dominated possession, had outstanding passing percentages, took three times as many shots, and won two-thirds of their aerial duels, which is somewhat similar to Liverpool's performance today save shots.  The Reds were less dominate on possession though at only 56% compared to Mangoloid U's 60%.  Liverpool completed 86% of their passes, which goes without saying is excellent, and won 62% of aerial battles.  The big difference was shots.

Both Southampton and LFC took 12 shots, but the south coast side had 6 on target while Liverpool had one less.  If we allow 6 shots on target every match, we will be very fortunate to make the top 7, never mind top four or competing for the league.  Mignolet put in an outstanding performance today making some terrific saves.  With Reina gone, I just hope there aren't any repercussions from him slamming into the post on that save of Ward-Prowse's forever lobbing attempt on goal.  Brad Jones is capable, but I doubt he would have put in an equal performance.

Let's get the negative out of the way first so we can look into the magic mirror, hold hands, and color unicorns.  Johnson was a waste of space and honestly we would have done better with ten men.  He turned over the ball nearly half the times he touched it, his two shots had a better chance of hitting the hot dog man than finding the back of the net, and he passed the ball backward like he was challenging time travel.  Maybe he was trying to go back to three years ago when he wasn't as dreadful. Moreno should be ready to go next match, but if not, where's Enrique?

Speaking of fecal matter, Lucas and Allen were particularly foul, especially as the match wore on.  It was as if Lucas had just put on Allen's kit and continued his downward spiral.  The Brazilian hasn't played that poorly in a couple of seasons, maybe it was just part of his 'sell me to Napoli so I can be with me Uncle Benitez' plan.  I guess Rodgers felt Can wasn't ready to make his EPL debut, I don't see how he could do any worse than those two though.  Turnovers, indecisiveness on the ball, passing to Southampton players on crucial possessions... those aren't positive attributes for players who are supposed to be 'holding midfielders'.

Also, what happened to our defence? What happened to our field general and drill sergeant, Lovren?  It's not as if he hasn't played in the Premier League before.  Maybe he just felt sentimental towards his old club, hopefully that was the case, hopefully it's not a disease that defenders get now when they put on the LFC kit, and hopefully it has nothing to do with Rodgers' tactics.  If it's the latter, we are screwed, let'em rage, BR.  The bottom line is, our defence has to communicate better, at times they looked like a bunch of mud-wrestling Helen Kellers out there.

Finally, Coutinho had a poor match.  Every time he gained possession, he was corralled by the Saints defence and for the most part, failed to dribble or pass his way out of it.  He'd better get used to it though, he's got a target as big as Hiroshima on his back and if pressuring him takes him out of the equation, it's going to be awfully easy for opposing defences to make him a non-factor.  If there's one thing that he needs to understand is that it's okay for him to pass backward once in a while, especially when he has two or three defenders around him.  His passing today clearly suffered from trying to force things, his 76% completion rate was worst among Liverpool outfield players.

Our best players were Sterling and Gerrard with Henderson coming in third, though the latter's passing requires improvement.  Sterling should probably get man of the match just on being responsible for both goals, but Gerrard, as always, played his heart out with reckless abandon.  Our captain was all over the place defensively, and thankfully so since Lovren and Skrtel had a few momentary lapses of concentration, but the most impressive part of Gerrard's performance was his passing.  He completed 89% overall and was 10 of 13 on long passes, even though most were wasted.  Sturridge looked a little bit shaky there in the beginning and never really found his form, which is scary, but he'll come around.

Speaking of Sturridge, he once again came through with the match-winning goal.  The first match of the season and he already has a 'crucial' goal, something he did seven times last season.  And since we are on the subject, I really wish pundits and commentators would get a clue, Suarez was not as valuable as he seemed.  Yes, he scored goals, but most were meaningless, he scored exactly ZERO goals that broke a scoring draw, won, or drew a match for Liverpool last season.  Shut your ignorant pie holes, please.

Southampton deserves some credit as they were quite impressive.  They looked far from a relegation contending side, but will be a mid-table club, possibly finishing as high as seventh.  Tadić and Ward-Prowse were brilliant and I wrote prior to the match, if Clyne gets involved on attack, we could be in trouble.  Well, guess what? He did and he equalized a vivid passing display by the Saints.  In the end, Liverpool were lucky to get all three points, pulling this one off by the skin of their teeth.  We've got to improve defensively though because a master passer like Fabregas, Silva, or Ozil will tear us to pieces if we don't.

Coutinho, Sterling, & Agger all had higher gopds than Suarez last year

The winner of 'goals on pitch difference' for Liverpool last season was Coutinho with Sterling and Agger coming up 2nd and 3rd respectively.  Similar to +/- that is used in basketball, gopd measures the amount of goals a team scored against amount allowed while that player is on the pitch.  Here are the results for relevant LFC players from last season:

	mins	pp90	ga	gap90	gs	gsp90	diff
Coutinho	2323	25.8	37	1.43	78	3.02	1.59
Sterling	2220	24.7	31	1.26	69	2.80	1.54
Agger	1421	15.8	18	1.14	42	2.66	1.52
Suarez	2962	32.9	47	1.43	96	2.92	1.49
Sturridge	2267	25.2	31	1.23	68	2.70	1.47
Johnson	2515	27.9	38	1.36	79	2.83	1.47
Henderson	3129	34.8	42	1.21	93	2.67	1.47
Allen	1443	16.0	21	1.31	44	2.75	1.44
Skrtel	3221	35.8	50	1.40	99	2.77	1.37
Gerrard	2895	32.2	44	1.37	86	2.67	1.30
Flanagan	1890	21.0	38	1.81	63	3.00	1.19
Lucas	1896	21.1	27	1.28	49	2.32	1.04
Toure	1443	16.0	20	1.25	36	2.25	1.00
Sakho	1478	16.4	25	1.52	38	2.32	0.79

The gopd average for Liverpool was 1.33 per match, which does not bode well for Gerrard and anyone else below him on the table.  Flanagan is particularly dreadful being his 3 goal scored per 90 is second highest, but his 1.81 goals allowed is worst.  I'm at a loss for words when it comes to Sakho, maybe he just isn't that good, and if you would have asked me last week if selling Lucas was a good idea, I would have said absolutely not, but now I'm beginning to wonder if he's no longer of much value.

I'm not surprised by any of the players in the top five except for maybe Agger, who we should truly not sell, but Johnson at sixth is perplexing.  I figured he'd be much worse.  Maybe we should hold on to him for a little bit longer.

By the way, of all players who played at least 1000 league minutes last season, Aly Cissokho had the highest goal scored per 90 at 3.05 and highest gopd at 1.73. Go figure.

Jordan Henderson, the would-be King

Jordan Henderson has come a long way since his Sunderland days.  When Dalglish bought him in June of 2011 for a staggering £16m, I was more than a bit skeptical.  Paying that much for a relatively unproven soon-to-be 21-year-old, was quite the risk.  Henderson displayed flashes of brilliance here and there, but was wholly inconsistent, not uncommon for a player his age.  Fortunately he has proven to be a skilled, versatile midfielder, who can and is willing to do what is ever needed to make Liverpool a better side.

year	2009-10	2010-11	2011-12	2012-13	2013-14
age	20	21	22	23	24
app (sub)	23(10)	37	31(6)	16(14)	35
mins	2187	3210	2658	1535	3129
p90	24.3	35.7	29.5	17.1	34.8
goals	1	3	2	5	4
assists	5	4	1	4	7
chances	28	45	40	33	62
npg90	0.04	0.08	0.07	0.29	0.11
gcp90	0.25	0.20	0.10	0.29	0.32
ccp90	1.15	1.26	1.36	1.90	1.78
ap90	0.21	0.11	0.03	0.23	0.20
ccv	18.3	8.7	2.2	12.1	11.2
pass %	68.4	81.2	83.9	84.5	87.1
bp %	-	-	-	43.4	41.2
sacc %	0.25	0.29	0.35	0.33	0.15
shot %	0.03	0.07	0.05	0.15	0.12
TTI90	15.9	11.1	11.1	11.5	9.7

His progression over the past five years has been impressive to say the least, especially his passing.  What's most impressive though, is how valuable he has become on defence.  Last season, he became our most valuable midfielder when it comes to preventing goals.  His goals on pitch per 90 average was 1.18, considerably better than Gerrard (1.37), Lucas (1.28), or Allen (1.31).

To see how truly far Henderson has come I wanted to compare his stats from last season with his contemporaries, players who are of similar age (23-25) and play a similar position.  I went through each squad and found all the players that fit the criteria, they are Joe Allen, Nemanja Matic, Morgan Schneiderlin, Ashley Westwood, Fabian Delph, Sandro, Steven N'Zonzi, Ki Sung-Yeong, Victor Wanyama, Jake Livermore, and Vurnon Anita.  The stat comparison table is below.

The top 5 overall ranking:

1. Jordan Henderson                 4.73

2. Morgan Schneiderlin              5.00

3. Nemanja Matic                     5.33

4. Ashley Westwood                 5.67

5. Fabian Delph                        5.87

Not only was he top overall, Henderson was in the top five in eleven of the fifteen categories.  Among his peers, he is already king and if he continues his current progression, who knows how good he could become.

	Henderson	Matic	Schneiderlin	Westwood	Delph	Sandro
age	24	25	24	24	24	25
app(sub)	35	15(2)	31(2)	35	33(1)	10(7)
mins	3129	1365	2765	3077	3004	828
p90	34.8	15.2	30.7	34.2	33.4	9.2
goals	4	0	2	3	3	1
assists	7	4	1	2	2	0
chances	62	23	30	63	28	7
npg90	0.11	0	0.07	0.12	0.09	0.11
gcp90	0.32	0.26	0.1	0.15	0.15	0.11
ccp90	1.78	1.51	0.98	1.84	0.83	0.76
ap90	0.20	0.26	0.03	0.06	0.06	0
ccv	11.2	17.2	3.1	3.2	7.2	0
pass %	87.1	84.8	89.3	82.9	83.7	84.4
bp %	41.2	31	35.6	28.3	38.3	29.6
sacc %	32.7	15.3	25.8	25	25	23.5
shot %	8.2	0	6.5	10.7	8.3	5.9
TTI90	9.7	12.5	9.3	9.6	10.5	10.8
intp90	1	2	2.2	1.4	1.7	3.3
clrp90	2	4	1.5	0.9	1.5	2.4
tp90	2.4	3.7	3.7	1.6	3	2.6
ts%	42.8	41.5	47.8	47.6	49.4	42.6
gap90	0.86	0.46	1.14	1.64	1.62	1.63

	N'Zonzi	Sung-Yeong	Wanyama	Livermore	Anita	Allen
age	25	25	23	24	25	24
app (sub)	34(2)	25(2)	19(4)	34(2)	28(6)	15(9)
mins	3041	2196	1659	3054	2457	1443
p90	33.8	24.4	18.4	33.9	27.3	16
goals	2	3	0	3	1	1
assists	1	1	0	4	1	0
chances	32	28	7	34	38	18
npg90	0.06	0.08	0	0.09	0.04	0.06
gcp90	0.09	0.16	0	0.21	0.07	0.06
ccp90	0.95	1.15	0.38	1	1.39	1.13
ap90	0.03	0.04	0	0.12	0.04	0
ccv	3.2	3.6	0	11.8	2.9	0
pass %	87.2	90.7	84.3	83	83.8	86.7
bp %	36.8	42.1	38.9	38.9	30.7	38
sacc %	19.4	35	12.5	17.9	19	42.1
shot %	6.5	7.5	0	7.7	4.8	5.3
TTI90	10.7	7.2	12.6	11.7	10.2	9.8
intp90	1	0.9	1.8	1.5	1.6	1.6
clrp90	0.8	0.9	2.8	0.8	1	1.3
tp90	1.8	1.7	3.5	2	1.8	4.2
ts%	47.6	55.6	48.2	45.8	45	56
gap90	1.33	1.72	0.76	1.36	1.65	1.31

Gerrard & Sturridge are more important than Suarez

Again and again I'm trying to convince myself that the loss of Suarez won't be that great, well, this may be the straw that breaks the camel's back.  I went through each match last year and broke down goal importance according to whether a point was salvaged or gained (crucial goal) or gave us an advantage (important goal).  I did the same for assists as well.  Then I applied a points system: 3 points for crucial goal or assist and 1 point for important goal or assist.  Here are the results:

	crucial goal	imp goal	crucial asst	imp assist	value
Gerrard	5	4	4	4	35
Sturridge	7	6	1	2	32
Suarez	0	11	1	4	18
Coutinho	2	1	0	2	9
Agger	1	1	1	1	8
Henderson	1	0	0	3	6
Enrique	0	0	1	1	4
Sterling	0	2	0	2	4
Aspas	0	0	1	0	3
Skrtel	0	3	0	0	3
Toure	0	0	0	1	1
Sakho	0	1	0	0	1
Johnson	0	0	0	1	1
Allen	0	1	0	0	1

Not a single goal and only one assist from Suarez was 'crucial' to our title chase last year.  He did score 11 'important' goals though, unfortunately that also means he essentially scored 20 'meaningless' goals or goals that wouldn't have mattered had he scored them or not.

We will be fine if Suarez leaves as long as we improve defensively.  Yes, he's fun to watch and I wish he would play the rest of his days in a Liverpool shirt, but in the end, we go on.