Take note United, Moreno transfer is how it's done

If reports are true and we have captured 22-year-old left back Alberto Moreno from Sevilla for £12m, Ian Ayre has outdone himself because that's a solid piece of business.  The original asking price was €20m or £15.9m, but months of negotiating dwindled it down, though I am sure there is some fine print of add-ons and possible transfer fee reductions of Iago Aspas if they choose to keep him.  Instead of being like United and just breaking out the check book, compromise appeared to have actually taken place, and we got a player at a fair price, though he could become a 'steal' down the road.

On top of his defensive abilities, Moreno has the dribbling and passing skills to make a tremendous impact on attack as well.  It's his acumen, his ability to discern and anticipate his opponent's next move that is most impressive and helps him shut'em down. His pace and vigor will benefit him on both sides of the pitch and are definitely Premier league quality.

The stats from his two seasons at Sevilla show different sides of his skill spectrum.  In his first season he excelled on defence and the second he improved his attacking numbers though seemingly at the cost of his defensive contribution:

yr	gc90	cc90	ps%	bp%	tti90	gopd	tkl90	tkl%	int90	clr90	adw90	adw%
13-14	0.11	0.71	0.789	0.365	8.62	-0.15	1.94	.396	2.72	1.64	1.94	0.500
12-13	0.08	0.67	0.781	0.45	10	0.73	2.42	.378	3.83	3.50	1.92	0.478

He improved in nearly every attacking category, but slagged off a little on defense.  His improvement in backpass percentage and true turnover index per 90 minutes was quite impressive.  The drop in tackles, interceptions, and clearances per 90 minutes are disappointing and hopefully just a one year slump.  The drastic decline in his goals-on-pitch is alarming, hopefully going from a very impressive 0.73 to a -0.15 is just a glitch and he becomes a positive influence once again.

If he can get back to his first season numbers in the first third and continue his improvement in the opponent's, he'll be well-worth his reasonable price tag.  At least we didn't pay £30m for him, Shaw will have to put up at least twice the numbers of Moreno to prove he's worth that much.

Victor Moses: worse than Aspas?

I'm going to go out on a limb and say Victor Moses' loan stay last season was a disaster.  In fact, ever since Moses joined Chelsea from Wigan, his career has down-spiraled, but was he really worth all the hype to begin with?

club	2009-10	2010-11	2011-12	2012-13	2013-14
year	Wigan	Wigan	Wigan	Wig/Che	Liverpool
age	19	20	21	22	23
app(subs)	2(12)	8(13)	36(2)	13(11)	6(13)
mins	443	815	3212	1215	651
p90	4.9	9.1	35.7	13.5	7.2
goals	1	1	6	1	1
assist	3	3	1	1	0
chances	11	16	41	22	10
npgp90	0.20	0.11	0.17	0.07	0.14
gcp90	0.82	0.44	0.20	0.15	0.14
ccp90	2.24	1.76	1.15	1.63	1.39
ap90	0.61	0.33	0.03	0.07	0
ccv	27.2	18.8	2.6	4.3	0
pass%	79.3	73.2	81.2	82.5	86.6
bp%	-	-	-	52.6	50.5
sacc%	21.4	29.2	29.1	21.4	36.4
shot%	7.1	4.2	5.8	3.6	9.1
TTI90	16.7	14.5	11.1	10.3	10
gap90	1.63	1.43	0.76	0.82	1.38
gsp90	2.04	1.76	1.51	1.7	1.66
gop90	0.41	0.33	0.75	0.88	0.28

Though he has improved over the years, especially passing and ball-handling, he has yet to develop into the player for which Chelsea paid £10.12m and at 23, he probably never will.  His goals on pitch last season, and basically throughout his career, was dreadful. 0.28? For a club that averaged 1.32? A full goal! That is mind-bottling.  Just for perspective, Aspas had a 0.94 gopd last season.  In fact, let's compare their output from 2013-14:

	Aspas	Moses
npgp90	0	0.14
gcp90	0.23	0.14
ccp90	1.86	1.39
ap90	0.23	0
ccv	12.4	0
pass%	75.4	86.6
bp%	58.1	50.5
sacc%	50	36.4
shot%	0	9.1
TTI90	14.4	10
gap90	0.47	1.38
gsp90	1.41	1.66
gop90	0.94	0.28

Moses is the better passer, though his 50.5% back pass rate is only comparable to Aspas.  If Moses hadn't scored his lone goal of the season against Swansea, his stats would be unbelievably bad.  Arguing who had the better year between the two would be like comparing dog feces with cat dung, who cares? They both smell like shit.

I don't see what Rodgers sees in him, he doesn't seem to have amazing athletic ability to make up for lack of skill. Honestly he should beg Mourinho to sell him on the cheap to a mid-table club like Stoke or Sunderland, so he can at least have a chance to become a 'cult hero'.  Something tells me Martinez would probably take him back under his wing at Everton as well.

You have to feel for Iago Aspas

The wide-eyed Spaniard has become the butt of many jokes, the top clown in the circus of mockery, and the subject of a very amusing twitter account.  I previously wrote about how the former Celta de Vigo star showed little promise for his £7.7m transfer fee, but let's see what that got us:

goals	0	npgp90	0	pass%	75.4	gap90	0.47
assist	1	gcp90	0.23	bp%	58.1	gsp90	1.41
chances	8	ccp90	1.86	sacc%	50	gop90	0.94
		ap90	0.23	shot%	0
		ccv	12.4	TTI90	14.4

Surprisingly, Aspas has a decent chance created per 90 average of 1.86 and chance created value of 12.4.  Unfortunately that's about it, his piss poor passing, abysmal turnover rate, and goals-on-pitch difference of 0.94 aren't worth  £770,000.

It started out so promising though.  He scored 4 goals in the preseason, including one in his first match, a curling beaut of a strike from outside of the box against Preston.  In our opening fixture versus Stoke at Anfield, he assisted on what would be the game-winning goal.  Then he did little else save his only official goal as a Liverpool player, when Oldham came to Anfield for their FA Cup tie in January.

You have to wonder what Rodgers has in store for Aspas.  I would hope he's planning to sell him, apparently Sevilla will take him on the cheap.  At this point getting anything back for him would be a plus,  £7.7m is awfully expensive for a mascot.

The transfer terrorists and their sneaky, little dirty bombs

If you are like me, you are already tired of all the speculations and half-fabrications pertaining to potential transfers involving our beloved club.  The silly season is upon us and since my two pence is worth at least one-fiftieth quid, I figure I'll have a go at deciphering through this radioactive mess.  I don't claim to have an advantage of who we may bring in, but I can at least give my thoughts on who is 'surplus to the cause'.

Lucas Leiva
I'm really on the fence about Lucas.  As much as I think we should keep him, part of me thinks the Lucas of three seasons ago is gone and he shan't return.  His injuries have become too frequent and though his passing and ball-handling skills have improved, he appears slower than ever and that's saying a lot considering pace was never one of his strengths.  At least now, with the addition of Can, we won't have to rely on him as much.

Daniel Agger
Absolutely not, losing Agger would be a greater loss than losing Suarez.  He was our best centre back last year and unless Sakho proves his worth early on next season, Agger should be around for a few more years.

Iago Aspas
Here's an interesting stat concerning Aspas... oh wait, there are no interesting stats concerning him.  Give'em a ticket and say bon voyage.

Fabio Borini
Even without the addition of Rickie Lambert, Borini should be shipped out.  In 2692 Premiership minutes, playing for Sunderland, Liverpool, and Chelsea, he has scored 8 goals, 3 of which are penalties, and assisted on 3 more.  For a comparison, he scored 9 goals in 1680 minutes for Roma in Serie A.  He doesn't have the pace nor the technical ability to make up for the lack of pace to make it in the Prem.  I say sell him to Sunderland or use him as bait to get a versatile defender like Federico Fazio.

Ousama Assaidi
Assaidi had a decent spell at Stoke last season, but not enough to really consider keeping him.  His ccp90 of 1.53, shooting accuracy of 45%, shot % of 20%, and a TTI90 of 8.6 are all respectable numbers, but he'll be 26 in August.  If he was 23, I'd say keep him around for another season, but it's time to cut ties and try to get back at least some of what we paid for him.

Jack Robinson
Robinson's loan spell at Blackpool probably did more for his character development than it did for his skills. Blackpool started the season in decent form, sitting on 31 points 17 matches into the season, than the ship ran aground.  They lost 20 of their remaining 29 matches, even bringing in Barry Ferguson as the manager did little to help their slide.  Was Robinson integral to their fall? Not really.  Despite picking up 3 red cards, 2 of which were in their first 17 matches, Robinson's output was respectable:

npgp90	0	pass%	71.7	gap90	1.44	intp90	2.27
gcp90	0.1	bp%	37.3	gsp90	0.83	clrp90	5.3
ccp90	0.77	sacc%	8.3	gop90	-0.61	bsp90	0.35
ap90	0.1	shot%	0	tgop90	-0.61	adwp90	1.4
ccv	12.5	TTI90	11.7	tp90	1.95	adwon%	57.1
				tack %	51.3

Ferguson even deployed Robinson at left mid for 4 matches with mixed results.  Being only 20, I expect him to be loaned out again and hopefully show more promise than last season.

As for Suso, Wisdom, Kelly, Coady, Yesil, and Ibe, unless they vehemently demand to leave, we should hold on to them.  The first three can contribute now, while the latter three probably need seasoning at a Championship side to improve their game.

Gerrard & Sturridge are more important than Suarez

Again and again I'm trying to convince myself that the loss of Suarez won't be that great, well, this may be the straw that breaks the camel's back.  I went through each match last year and broke down goal importance according to whether a point was salvaged or gained (crucial goal) or gave us an advantage (important goal).  I did the same for assists as well.  Then I applied a points system: 3 points for crucial goal or assist and 1 point for important goal or assist.  Here are the results:

	crucial goal	imp goal	crucial asst	imp assist	value
Gerrard	5	4	4	4	35
Sturridge	7	6	1	2	32
Suarez	0	11	1	4	18
Coutinho	2	1	0	2	9
Agger	1	1	1	1	8
Henderson	1	0	0	3	6
Enrique	0	0	1	1	4
Sterling	0	2	0	2	4
Aspas	0	0	1	0	3
Skrtel	0	3	0	0	3
Toure	0	0	0	1	1
Sakho	0	1	0	0	1
Johnson	0	0	0	1	1
Allen	0	1	0	0	1

Not a single goal and only one assist from Suarez was 'crucial' to our title chase last year.  He did score 11 'important' goals though, unfortunately that also means he essentially scored 20 'meaningless' goals or goals that wouldn't have mattered had he scored them or not.

We will be fine if Suarez leaves as long as we improve defensively.  Yes, he's fun to watch and I wish he would play the rest of his days in a Liverpool shirt, but in the end, we go on.

Why Rodgers should buy Bertrand

To get sacked and go on holiday.  I have little doubt that buying the Chelsea left back for his estimated valuation of £7m would be on par with buying Aspas for £7.5m or Borini for £10.4m.  Here are last season's stats for Bertrand, who spent the majority on loan at Villa, our Jon Flanagan, and the guy we should sign on a free from Heracles of the Eredivisie, Australian Jason Davidson.

	Bertrand	Flanagan	Davidson
age	25*	21	22
app(subs)	17	23	30
mins	1449	1890	2669
goals	0	1	2
assist	0	1	3
chances	4	13	32
npgp90	0	0.05	0.06
gcp90	0	0.1	0.17
ccp90	0.25	0.62	1.08
pass%	76.4	83.7	76.5
bp%	38.4	42.6	31.4
sacc%	50	42.9	38.5
shot%	0	14.3	15.4
tp90	1.9	3.8	1.7
tack %	60.5	45.7	51.2
intp90	0.9	1.9	2.2
clrp90	2.1	3.6	5.2
dribpp90	0.4	1.9	0.9
bsp90	0.4	0.2	0.5
TTI90	10.2	9.2	7.6

Bertrand pales in comparison to Flanagan and Davidson, in fact, other than his tackle success percentage, he's quite unimpressive.  More damning is that before joining Villa they had 23 points from their first 20 matches, but in the 16 of the remaining 18 matches that Bertrand played, they garnered only 12 points and won the fixture against Chelsea which could not feature him. 

Just don't do it Rodgers.  I read somewhere that the argument was how Rodgers has 'righted' Sturridge and could do the same for Bertrand.  That's a bunch of crock, when Sturridge is allowed to play in his natural position up front, as he did on loan at Bolton, he's highly productive, it has little to do with Rodgers 'righting' anything.  BR should be getting Davidson's rep on the phone as soon as possible before he finalizes his deal with Fulham.  That Felix Magath, he's never won anything.

Toby Alderweireld: A good signing but only at the right price

According to reports, the player in which we are latest linked is Atletico Madrid and Belgium defender, Toby Alderweireld.  The 25-year-old former Ajax player has become frustrated with his lack of playing time at Atletico and is looking to go elsewhere, despite only joining the La Liga champions last summer.  His preferred position is centre back, but has also provided cover at right back for club and country.  Here's how he sizes up statistically against Sakho, Skrtel, Agger, and Old Man Toure:

	Alderweireld	Sakho	Skrtel	Agger	Toure
age	25	24	29	29	old
app(subs)	17(3)	18(1)	36	16(4)	15(5)
mins	1576	1478	3221	1421	1443
goals	1	1	7	2	0
assist	0	0	1	1	2
chances	0	2	7	2	7
npgp90	0.06	0.06	0.2	0.13	0
gcp90	0.06	0.06	0.22	0.19	0.13
ccp90	0	0.12	0.2	0.13	0.44
pass%	81.6	92.5	90.8	89.1	86.4
bp%	24.9	22.6	23.7	18.7	20.5
sacc%	50	10	53.3	42.8	14.3
shot%	12.5	10	46.7	28.6	0
tp90	2.5	1.6	1.4	1.7	2.1
tack %	58.5	71.4	50	55.6	65.1
intp90	1.4	1.6	1.7	1.3	0.9
clrp90	6.1	8.3	11.5	7.2	9.2
dribpp90	0.4	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.4
bsp90	0.6	0.4	1.1	0.5	0.8
adwp90	1.7	2.9	3.6	2.8	2.7
adwon%	75	56	70.1	65.2	50.6
TTI90	8.5	5.6	5.2	5	5.8
avg rank	3.44	3.06	2	2.69	3.25

His overall ranking of 3.44 is last among the group, in fact, statistically the only thing that could even be deemed 'impressive' is his aerial duels won percentage. He is comparable in many fields, but do we really want to waste our time with a seemingly average player?  It's hard to use the 'potential argument' for a 25-year-old, that's the United way, but he does impress in this video, especially with his passing:

Alderweireld is valued at around £9m, but that's just too high.  Atletico bought him for £6.16m and being that they appear not to care whether he stays or not, maybe they'll take £7m or £7.5m.  We can throw in Aspas to carry the ball bags as well.  If we can get him for that, I'd say go for it, then at the very least  we'll have coverage at right back.