What Falcao would bring to Liverpool

If rumors are true and we are about to sign Falcao on loan for ridiculous wages, well, I guess it's better than nothing.  The 28-year-old striker does one thing really well and that is score goals.  His career non-penalty goals per 90 minutes average in league matches is 0.57, while his goal created per 90 is 0.75.  He scores a non-penalty goal every other match and creates a goal, which includes penalties, two out of every three matches.  In European competitions, he improves those numbers with a 0.89 npg90 and a gc90 of 1.07. His shot percentage, that is goals-to-shots (on or off-target), of 30.3% is one of the best percentages I've ever seen for a player with such a high volume.

As for other attacking attributes, well, don't expect much. The Colombian averages an assist every 12.5 matches and he creates almost a chance per a 90 minutes (0.90 ccp90).  His passing has improved over the years as he posted a career high 84.7% success rate last season at Monaco, though his career back pass percentage is a dreadful 58.7% and his specialized passing numbers are virtually non-existent.  He also lacks the pace and skill to dribble past defenders as he averages 0.79 successful dribbles per a 90 minutes at a 39.5% rate.

Other than his scoring efficiency, Falcao is rather useless.  Bringing him on board with the objective to increase goal-scoring ability is fine, but is a temporary fix to a problem that re-arises next summer.  Liverpool really don't have much choice, the front line needs depth.  Though it would be better to bring in a prospect like Falcao's Monaco teammate, Lucas Ocampos, that's a luxury LFC can no longer afford.

A future Asian star who could solve our striker issues

Heung-Min Son is a 22-year-old South Korean forward, currently signed to Bayer Leverkusen.  He came to Germany six years earlier as a youth player for Hamburger SV.  In 2010, he made his Bundesliga debut, 'breaking the duck' in his first match for HSV versus 1. FC Köln.  After three seasons for the fading club, he transferred to Leverkusen, where last season he posted his best numbers to date.

That is what is most impressive about Son, he not only has improved each season, he also seems to be adding weapons to his already abundant arsenal.  He has always possessed explosive pace, excellent ball control/passing skills, and a keen sense of awareness on attack, but now his 'specialized' passing and shot accuracy have improved significantly over the years.

Here are his 'regular stats' from the past four seasons:

	npg90	ap90	gc90	cc90	ccv	pass%	sdr90	tti90	gopd
2010-11	0.37	0.00	0.37	0.37	0.000	0.771	2.50	12.73	0.05
2011-12	0.37	0.07	0.44	1.03	0.071	0.784	2.79	11.54	0.35
2012-13	0.40	0.07	0.47	0.84	0.080	0.774	1.54	10.78	-0.15
2013-14	0.38	0.15	0.53	1.29	0.118	0.801	3.27	10.34	0.05

...and here are his 'specialized' passing and shot percentages:

	cr90	cr%	lb90	lb%	sacc%	shot%
2010-11	0.12	0.077	0.50	0.444	0.368	0.158
2011-12	0.22	0.273	0.74	0.625	0.306	0.139
2012-13	0.07	0.111	1.31	0.722	0.449	0.154
2013-14	0.65	0.309	1.25	0.805	0.458	0.120

He has improved each season in nearly every stat with his true turnover index 90 showing a maturation that I'm not sure if I've seen before.  His goal-scoring has been consistent, though he'll need to show  improvement there and in creating goals in general (assists) to reach the next level.  The 'specialized' passing I mentioned above, particularly his successful cross and long ball percentage from last season are already respectable rates, who knows how accurate he can become?  That's the thing, he has all-world potential, but he'll have to move to a bigger club with better players to reach it.

His last season with HSV makes this point.  They lost arguably their three best attacking players in Mladen Petric, Paolo Guerrero, and Gohkan Tore the summer prior.  Van Der Vaart and Artjom Rudnevs were added, but the damage was done.  Son had to become a major factor instead of fourth-choice on attack and even though he put up decent numbers, he was as unprepared as any 20-year-old you expect would be.  His move to Leverkusen gave him 'more room to breathe' and it showed in his performances.

Buying him now may be a bit premature, but I still think he'll excel in Rodgers' system with the likes of our players.  He is valued at around £12m, but Leverkusen would not even think about selling for any offer less than £20m.  Son is going to be good, possibly great at times, for the next 8-10 years, so as a long term investment that's pennies.  The odds of this happening though? Bleak to none.

Take note United, Moreno transfer is how it's done

If reports are true and we have captured 22-year-old left back Alberto Moreno from Sevilla for £12m, Ian Ayre has outdone himself because that's a solid piece of business.  The original asking price was €20m or £15.9m, but months of negotiating dwindled it down, though I am sure there is some fine print of add-ons and possible transfer fee reductions of Iago Aspas if they choose to keep him.  Instead of being like United and just breaking out the check book, compromise appeared to have actually taken place, and we got a player at a fair price, though he could become a 'steal' down the road.

On top of his defensive abilities, Moreno has the dribbling and passing skills to make a tremendous impact on attack as well.  It's his acumen, his ability to discern and anticipate his opponent's next move that is most impressive and helps him shut'em down. His pace and vigor will benefit him on both sides of the pitch and are definitely Premier league quality.

The stats from his two seasons at Sevilla show different sides of his skill spectrum.  In his first season he excelled on defence and the second he improved his attacking numbers though seemingly at the cost of his defensive contribution:

yr	gc90	cc90	ps%	bp%	tti90	gopd	tkl90	tkl%	int90	clr90	adw90	adw%
13-14	0.11	0.71	0.789	0.365	8.62	-0.15	1.94	.396	2.72	1.64	1.94	0.500
12-13	0.08	0.67	0.781	0.45	10	0.73	2.42	.378	3.83	3.50	1.92	0.478

He improved in nearly every attacking category, but slagged off a little on defense.  His improvement in backpass percentage and true turnover index per 90 minutes was quite impressive.  The drop in tackles, interceptions, and clearances per 90 minutes are disappointing and hopefully just a one year slump.  The drastic decline in his goals-on-pitch is alarming, hopefully going from a very impressive 0.73 to a -0.15 is just a glitch and he becomes a positive influence once again.

If he can get back to his first season numbers in the first third and continue his improvement in the opponent's, he'll be well-worth his reasonable price tag.  At least we didn't pay £30m for him, Shaw will have to put up at least twice the numbers of Moreno to prove he's worth that much.

Eto'o just as good as Van Persie last season

I don't understand why so many Liverpool fans are against signing Eto'o on a free.  The arguments of his 'loss of pace' are grossly over-exaggerated if not unproven and defining him as a 'mercenary' is just delusionary.  Welcome to modern football, swallow your pride or go back to being a mid-table club.

What's even more pathetic are United fans joking about Liverpool possibly signing the 32-year-old Cameroonian.  Eto'o was just as good as Van Persie last year, but that would take intelligence to understand and I don't give the Manc mongoloids that much credit.  Here is a comparison of their stats from last season:

	npg90	ap90	gc90	cc90	pass%	sacc%	shot%	tti90	gopd90	gopd
Eto'o	0.62	0.14	0.76	1.53	0.761	0.441	0.153	11.3	1.18	0.02
RVP	0.57	0.17	0.86	0.97	0.767	0.339	0.161	10.5	0.40	-0.15

Eto'o scored more non-penalty goals and created more chances per 90 minutes played.  The most damning stat is their value to their respective clubs, Eto'o may not have been the 'world class' goal scorer he once was, but at least he didn't have a negative effect on his team's performance.  Van Persie's -0.15 goals on pitch difference suggests he was detrimental toward Man United's winning efforts.  Seems like the joke's on Man United as they are definitely going to keep a 31-year-old striker who is often injured and failed to help his side's seventh place cause last season.  I guess it's good they won't be venturing far from home next season.

The top 5 worst possible forward transfers

Note that these are, or were, actual targets unlike Michael Chopra, Andy Carroll, or my cousin Leroy.

5. Salomon Kalou
Salomon Kalou is a conundrum.  Is he any good? Was he ever good?  When he transferred from Feyenoord to Chelsea in 2006, he was coming off two productive years where he scored 42 goals in 80 matches in all competitions.  Interestingly enough, his strike mate at the Eredivisie club was Dirk Kuyt, who scored 61 goals in 82 matches over that same span.  Read the rest of this post here

4. Ezequiel Lavezzi
Ezequiel Lavezzi is like a fine wine, he's gotten better with age, but is he good enough to help Liverpool win?  He doesn't score many goals, he has more than his fair share of turnovers, and he's an average passer at best, though he does make his passes count.  Over the past five seasons, he has a 2.03 chances created per 90 and a chance created value of 10.67%, both above average numbers in any league. Read more of this post here

3. Jay Rodriguez
Jay Rodriguez isn't worth £1.9m, yet alone 19! That is absurd.  There just can't be any truth to Rodgers being interested in him.  If so, somebody needs to set his head right, because that's certifiable. Are these stats worthy of a £19m attacking midfielder/winger/forward? To see his stats and read the rest of this post, go here.

2. Mauro Icardi
I don't really get all the hoopla about Icardi, other than stealing fellow teammate's wives and having a decent though far from amazing career goal scoring rate of 0.5 per 90 minutes, there is nothing statistically impressive about him.  He's not a good passer (68% pass completion rate) nor creator for his teammates (0.92 chances created per 90 minutes) and he can't even dribble past defenders in the pace-challenged Serie A (0.5 successfull dribbles per 90 at a 20% success rate).  Inter want £24m for him, even if he leaves his wife in Italy, that's entirely too much for potential alone.

1. Fred
I was browsing message boards the other day, for self-esteem reasons of course, when I found quite a few 'pro-Fred' postings.  At first I thought that there must be some younger, lesser known Brazilian striker going by that same moniker, but apparently not.  (Yes, I am aware of the Brazilian attacking midfielder at Shaktar Donetsk.)  Honestly, I was shocked to see supporters backing his purchase, did they watch the World Cup? He was absolutely useless.

On top of that, even if he posted 'World Class' stats, which he doesn't (about a goal scored every other match, good but not great, and average passing stats at best), it would take a boatload of cash to get him to leave Brazil.  That's surprising considering what happened there this summer.  His stay at Lyon left a bad taste in his mouth regarding European football and made him homesick, I don't think he'll find himself in a much better situation anywhere in England.

Is this free 'World Class' striker the solution?

It's getting to the point that almost any signing that can contribute more than Aspas did last season will have to do, but what if there were a proven, experienced striker still out there and he wouldn't cost Liverpool a dime?  Well, there is, and his name is Samuel Eto'o.

For those who think that the Cameroonian legend is past it, look no further than his production last season for Chelsea.  He may be 33, but he's still got the ability to post respectable numbers.  Here's his output from last season:

npg90	ap90	gc90	cc90	pass%	sacc%	shot%	tti90	gopd
0.62	0.14	0.76	1.53	0.761	0.441	0.153	11.3	0.02

He basically created three goals every four matches, not too bad for an 'old man', and he turned over the ball less than Sterling or Suarez.

Apparently he is currently in talks with Ajax, which is interesting because he allegedly was asking too high of wages from interested clubs.  Ajax is not going to pay him an exorbitant salary and LFC could easily pay him more.

He would obviously just be around for a season, which may not appeal to him, but he's only needed to 'buy time' until Origi returns or another long term option is found.  I really don't see what we have to lose, if he ends up a failure, oh well, we got him on a free, if he makes a splash, he was a 'genius buy'.  Even if he repeats his output from last season, 9 goals and 2 assists in about fourteen-and-a-half matches worth of minutes, it'll be well worth sigining him up.

Striker solution? This 'once-linked', former Barça prospect, could be a quality buy

Despite being 'pre-season' and meaningless, last night's match exposed our need for another striker.  Waiting for the magical boots to turn on and make Lambert the answer just won't hack it.  The problem is there isn't much else out there, certainly nothing of Suarez' class.  We may have to 'settle' for a forward with 'potential' and most likely risk funds to do so.  One of these players is Celta Vigo's Nolito, who we've been linked to in years past.

The 27-year-old forward/winger first came to prominence playing for Segunda División B side, Écija Balompié.  His performances helped lead Écija to the league title, catching the eye of Barcelona B scouts, where he would transfer to in July 2008.  There he scored 29 goals in 108 appearances, helping them get promoted to the Segundo División for the first time this century.

Seeing the pitch just three times for the senior side, he turned down a contract offer in summer 2011 and was transferred to Benfica for £2.2m.  His first year with the Portuguese club was somewhat successful, scoring 15 goals in all competitions and helping the club win the Taça de Liga.  He also scored in his first five consecutive league matches, tying Eusébio's record for goals by a debut player in Primeira Liga.

Unfortunately the honeymoon ended and Nolito found himself as fourth choice forward at the start of 2012-13 season.  After only 6 appearances and 188 minutes the first half of the year, he was loaned to Granada CF in the January transfer window.  At the Andalusian club, he created lots of chances, but only managed one assist to go with his 3 goals, but garnered enough interest to earn a transfer to Celta Vigo for £2.2m.

His stats for the La Liga club last season are not mind-blowing, but somewhat impressive considering it was his first season there and he wasn't exactly surrounded by world class talent:

npg90	gc90	cc90	sacc%	shot%	TTI90	gopd
0.48	0.63	1.94	41.18%	14.12%	11.5	0.29

Nolito seems to set up lots of chances for his teammates no matter where he plays, just imagine what he could do with the likes of Sturridge, Sterling, and Coutinho around him.  He also doesn't waste shot opportunities nor turnover the ball at a ridiculous rate, hence his 11.5 TTI90.  The most impressive stat though is his goals on pitch difference 90 of 0.29, when he wasn't on the pitch, Celta Vigo was destined to lose with a team gopd of -0.13.

The soon-to-be 28-year-old Spaniard is not just a poacher, but can contribute in many ways.  Other than setting others up, he is also a decent tackler, averaging 2.34 successful tackles per 90 minutes at a 48.4% rate.  He's valued at around £5m, which if we could get him for anything close, would be steal.  Recently, he said if Barcelona came calling, he would leave, I wonder if that applies to other 'big' clubs. 

Mile Jedinak: A defensive solution on the cheap

With the Lovren deal apparently on the rocks, Caulker off the table, and little other prospects in the wind, how about an inexpensive, Premiership-proven alternative, albeit temporary? What about Mile Jedinak?  Yes, I'm aware he is a defensive midfielder, but versatility only adds to his intrigue.

The soon-to-be-30-year-old Australian international had quite an impressive season last year for Crystal Palace.  One could write a book about the Eagles' wild ride of a 2013-14 campaign, from dead last on 7 points in week 13 to finishing 11th on 45, and we don't have to mention the 9 minutes of chaos at Selhurst Park that all but ended Liverpool's title hopes.  How Palace easily survived by scoring a mere 33 goals is a minor miracle to say the least and a massive tribute to a defence lead by Jedinak.

Crystal Palace didn't play 'smart' defence, they played a brutal-style that relied on individual effort.  Unfortunately that will never win you a league title since it is too draining on the players, a possession and passing-based defence will always win there, but it's admirable to say the least.  Per league ranking last season, the London club was first in the Prem in clearances, interceptions, and least costly defensive errors, second in tackles and least overall defensive errors, fifth in successful tackle percentage, and 8th in blocked shots. Their average ranking in those categories was 2.86, the next closest was Hull at 6.86.

Jedinak was a beast, posting impressive numbers in defensive areas as well as in aerial duels (league averages in blue below):

adw90	adw%	t90	tk%	int90	clr90	bs90
4.49	70.8	3.57	53.4	3.73	3.76	0.46
1.61	50	1.75	46.9	1.25	3.04	0.30

His biggest weakness is his passing, but in his defence, he did play for the worst passing side in the EPL last season.  His 71.9% passing rate was still slightly better than his team's 71.1% and he did complete 121 of 206 long balls for a 58.7% rate.  As is the norm, his passing would improve with more skilled teammates. He also doesn't have blinding pace, which is why his future is better suited at centre back.

A lot comes in to play when considering Jedinak: age, fee, and would he want to come?  He would be losing playing time, but he would get a chance at Champions League football.  Also he would have the opportunity to play for one of the bigger clubs on Merseyside (that's called sarcasm).  If Pulis would regretfully let him go for £5m, Rodgers would be crazy not to jump at it.  Jedinak is an excellent defender, which will translate well at either defensive midfielder or centre back for at least 3-4 seasons.

Javi Manquillo would be a project not a resolution

Javier Manquillo doesn't show much promise as a full back, at least not going forward.  In his few appearances in La Liga and Europe the last two seasons, The 20-year-old Atletico Madrid defender has shown to be a less-than mediocre passer, especially dreadful at specialization, and has a hard time holding on to the ball.  His career passing success average is 75.8%, nearly four points lower than the 79.6% of players in all competitions combined.  He has connected on just 1 of 24 career cross attempts, has never even attempted a throughball, and has a 30% conversion rate for long balls.  Glen Johnson, coming off a poor year by most accounts, still posted better numbers, succeeding on 5 of 51 crosses, 54.2% long balls, and was 1 for 3 on throughballs.

Manquillo can defend though.  Here are his career defence stats from Spain and Europe compared to Johnson's and Flanagan's from last season:

player	t90	tk%	int90	clr90	drby90	bs90
Manquillo	3.30	60.9	2.44	3.06	0.12	0.49
Johnson	2.29	55.9	1.79	2.54	0.82	0.29
Flanagan	3.8	45.7	1.9	3.6	1.9	0.2

Manquillo posted better all-round numbers than both of them, his tackle rate, dribble-busting ability, and shot-blocking capability are particularly outstanding.  He is also excellent in the air.  His career aerial duels success percentage is 78.9%, that's better than any LFC player last season as Skrtel was best at 70.1%.  These attributes are better-suited for a centre back, not a right back.  So if Rodgers was interested in the Spaniard to change his position, it's actually not a bad idea, but it seems far-fetched.  We don't need projects, we need immediate contributors and even spending £6m for Manquillo doesn't make much sense.

The transfer rubbish bin: Vidal, Pogba, the Pope & Santa Claus

The latest slop to come from the transfer pig trough is Liverpool's interest in Juventus midfielders Arturo Vidal and Paul Pogba.  The chance of such rumours coming to fruition are like Kate Upton having my love child.

Arturo Vidal is a man-beast.  Unfortunately, Liverpool have no interest nor room for the 27-year-old Chilean International. With Can, Henderson, Gerrard, & Lucas, minutes would be sparse, and his lack of 'specialization' would only hurt his chances of pitch time.

Vidal is an all-round good midfielder, but does nothing great.  Here are his stats from last season:

npgp90	gcp90	ccp90	ap90	ccv
0.33	0.59	1.73	0.18	10.6
pass%	bp%	sacc%	shot%	TTI90
83.7	40.9	33.3	19.3	13.2
gsp90	gap90	gop90	tgop	gopd90
2.21	0.74	1.47	1.5	-0.03
intp90	drbp90	tp90	tack%	adw%
1.44	1.99	4.8	43.2	53.8

If he hadn't scored 11 goals and had 5 assists, he'd be a poor man's Lucas.  If he didn't post such defensive numbers, he'd be a slightly passing inferior Jordan Henderson.  Either way, he pales in comparison to a 33-year-old Gerrard.

Pogba falls under the same problem, he's also a box-to-box whom would probably be great at being either an attacking or defensive midfielder if he just concentrated his efforts towards being one or the other.  He does seem to be better on the ball than Vidal though.

npgp90	gcp90	ccp90	ap90	ccv
0.21	0.41	1.41	0.21	14.6
pass%	bp%	sacc%	shot%	TTI90
83.8	39.7	39.7	9.6	11.3
gsp90	gap90	gop90	tgop	gopd90
2.14	0.59	1.55	1.5	0.05
intp90	clrp90	tp90	tack%	adw%
1.06	1.14	2.46	40.6	58.4

They are very similar players which is probably why Juventus are shopping both, but will probably only sell one.  Unfortunately, there is no reason to buy either, Henderson is just as good, Gerrard is better, Lucas is a far superior holding midfielder, and Can has all the assets to compete for minutes.

The Pope is great at crosses and saves, but do we really need a winger/keeper?

Jay Rodriguez for £19m?! I must be taking crazy pills.

Jay Rodriguez isn't worth £1.9m, yet alone 19! That is absurd.  There just can't be any truth to Rodgers being interested in him.  If so, somebody needs to set his head right, because that's certifiable. Are these stats worthy of a £19m attacking midfielder/winger/forward?

Southampton 2013-14

npgp90	gcp90	ccp90	ap90	ccv
0.53	0.63	0.7	0.11	14.3
pass%	bp%	sacc%	shot%	TTI90
76.6	49	31.7	14.9	12.9
gap90	gsp90	gop90	tgop	gopd90
1.37	1.51	0.14	0.21	-0.07

Southampton 2012-13

npgp90	gcp90	ccp90	ap90	ccv
0.25	0.45	0.74	0.21	27.8
pass%	bp%	sacc%	shot%	TTI90
73.8	-	36	6.7	14.4
gap90	gsp90	gop90	tgop	gopd90
1.61	1.2	-0.41	-0.29	0.12

I'll save you the trouble and say 'Hell no!' Rodriguez is not good enough to wear the Liverpool shirt.  It's bad enough we grossly overpaid for his former teammate, but he shouldn't even be in the picture.  Whomever says we should buy him, should be committed, immediately.

Not a single stat above could be deemed 'outstanding'.  He does have great chances created value numbers, but that's mainly due to lack of created chances more than anything.  He had a total of 38 for the past two seasons combined.  For perspective, Glen Johnson had 74 over the same span.

Rodriguez is clearly poor on the ball.  His turnover rate and passing percentages are dismal.  He did see slight improvement from one season to the next, but he'll be 25 by the end of the month.  His performance curve can't go too much higher.

Seriously, Rodgers, Rodriguez? I'm hoping he was mis-heard and really said Ricardo Rodriguez.  If not, we need to find where the real Rodgers is being held and get rid of his reptilian humanoid doppelganger sent by Malcolm Glazer from his invisible spaceship.  This hyperreality is making me lose my mind.