What 'history' says about the loss of Suarez

A Premiership club losing their own and the league's leading scorer from the previous campaign is nothing new, in fact, it's happened four times prior.  In 95-96, Alan Shearer set a Premier League record by scoring 31 goals for Blackburn.  The Rovers finished 7th that season and Shearer was sold to Newcastle in the summer for a world record transfer fee of £15m.  They were never really able to find a replacement and a downward spiral to relegation was sowed, coming to fruition following the 1998-99 campaign.

In 1997-98, the great Dion Dublin found the back of the net 18 times for Coventry, accounting for 39.1% of the Sky Blues' goals that season.  The total tied him atop the league charts along with Liverpool's own, Michael Owen, and Chris Sutton.  He was then bought by Villa in the summer transfer window for £5.75.

The season after he left, Coventry struggled, scoring 7 less goals overall and finishing 15th.  They tried replacing Dublin with John Aloisi, who at that time was a 22-year-old striker coming off an impressive campaign at First Division (which was the equivalent of the Championship back then) Portsmouth.  The Australian failed to fill Dublin's boots and eventually led to the club being relegated in 2001.

The next season, Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink and Mickey Owen both scored 18 to lead the league.  Hasselbaink played for Leeds at that time and unsatisfactory contract offers forced him to put in a transfer request during the summer of 1999.  He was sold to Athletico Madrid where he had a stellar season, scoring 24 goals in 34 La Liga matches.

Leeds didn't miss him though, despite the 27-year-old Dutchman being responsible for 29% of their goals, they actually went up a spot on the table to 3rd.  The remarkable thing is they garnered 69 points, 2 more than they did during Hasselbaink's final season, despite scoring 4 less goals and allowing 9 more.  An Australian lad by the name of Kewell stepped up and filled the gap scoring 10 and (unofficially) assisting on another 13 in league play.

Finally, just two seasons ago, Robin Van Persie betrayed the Arsenal faithful, selling his soul to the Red Devils.  The 30 goals he scored in  his final season at the London club lead the league and accounted for 40.5% of the Gunner's total.  The following season Arsenal finished a spot lower at 4th despite accumulating three more points.  Their goals scored only dropped by 2, while they held their opponents to 12 less.  If Liverpool would do the latter this season, they have a good chance of winning the league, even if they score 20 goals less.

What about non-league leading scorers who were significant contributors to their club the season before leaving:

year	player	prev club	goals	club	pct	place	after
94-95	L. Ferdinand	QPR	24	61	39.34%	8th	19th
	S. Collymore	Nott Forest	22	72	30.56%	3rd	9th
	J. Klinnsman	Tottenham	21	66	31.82%	7th	8th
98-99	N. Anelka	Arsenal	17	59	28.81%	2nd	2nd
05-06	Van Nistelroy	Man U	21	72	29.17%	2nd	1st
06-07	Mark Viduka	Mids'boro	14	44	31.82%	12th	13th
	Darrent Bent	Charlton	13	34	38.24%	19th	11th*
08-09	C. Ronaldo	Man U	18	68	26.47%	1st	2nd
11-12	C. Dempsey	Fulham	18	68	26.47%	9th	12th
	Yakubu	Blackburn	17	48	35.42%	19th	17th*
12-13	Gareth Bale	Tottenham	21	66	31.82%	5th	6th
	R. Lukaku	WBA (loan)	17	53	32.08%	8th	17th
	Demba Ba	Newcastle	15	45	33.33%	16th	10th

*Clubs were relegated the player's final season and this is their finishing place in the Championship the following campaign.

One thing that can be derived is that 'major' clubs take the loss of a significant attacking player much better than 'mid-table' or 'smaller' sides.  That gives hope to Liverpool, though only twice has a club increased their finishing place on the table.  Leeds in 2000-01, as mentioned above, and in 2006-07 when Mangoloid U won the league after the loss of Van Nistelroy. Another thing that should be pointed out is none of the clubs mentioned in this post featured the second leading league scorer from the previous season, whereas Liverpool have Daniel Sturridge.

Eto'o just as good as Van Persie last season

I don't understand why so many Liverpool fans are against signing Eto'o on a free.  The arguments of his 'loss of pace' are grossly over-exaggerated if not unproven and defining him as a 'mercenary' is just delusionary.  Welcome to modern football, swallow your pride or go back to being a mid-table club.

What's even more pathetic are United fans joking about Liverpool possibly signing the 32-year-old Cameroonian.  Eto'o was just as good as Van Persie last year, but that would take intelligence to understand and I don't give the Manc mongoloids that much credit.  Here is a comparison of their stats from last season:

	npg90	ap90	gc90	cc90	pass%	sacc%	shot%	tti90	gopd90	gopd
Eto'o	0.62	0.14	0.76	1.53	0.761	0.441	0.153	11.3	1.18	0.02
RVP	0.57	0.17	0.86	0.97	0.767	0.339	0.161	10.5	0.40	-0.15

Eto'o scored more non-penalty goals and created more chances per 90 minutes played.  The most damning stat is their value to their respective clubs, Eto'o may not have been the 'world class' goal scorer he once was, but at least he didn't have a negative effect on his team's performance.  Van Persie's -0.15 goals on pitch difference suggests he was detrimental toward Man United's winning efforts.  Seems like the joke's on Man United as they are definitely going to keep a 31-year-old striker who is often injured and failed to help his side's seventh place cause last season.  I guess it's good they won't be venturing far from home next season.

There is only one reason Gerrard should ever play for England again

To knock Beckham off his perch and become the top capped outfield player in Three Lions history. That's it, two more matches and he should hang up those boots.  Gerrard is 34 and we need him to put his England days behind him and  focus on LFC.

After the World Cup embarassment, he should probably go ahead and retire, but with my disdain for 'pretty foot', I don't mind if he suits up a couple more matches.  I don't think it'll do England any good though, they've clearly got to give Barkley, Henderson, and Wilshere more playing time, if they want to improve.  They also need to get a better manager.

I've heard Gerrard called a failure on the International level and that's why he isn't 'world class'.  Rubbish, one man does not make a team, though there were times when Gerrard carried his country.  His statistical output for England has been impressive so far, especially when you consider he's played nearly every outfield position.

npgp90	gcp90	ccp90	ap90	ccv
0.22	0.46	1.97	0.24	12.3
pass%	bp%	sacc%	shot%	TTI90
80.2	25.9*	46.7	15.3	12.7
gap90	gsp90	gop90	tgop	gopd90
0.81	1.99	1.18	0.99	0.19
tp90	tack%	intp90	clrp90	bsp90
2.52	71.8	1.92	1.3	0.45

Those are solid numbers all around save his turnover rate.  His goals on pitch difference per 90 of 0.19 means he has been worth nearly an extra goal every five matches, +21.66 for his career.  Which isn't surprising when he was actually played a part in a quarter of his side's goals when he plays.

I don't really care if others don't think he's world class, but saying it is because he doesn't perform on the international stage is not valid.  In reality, he's played quite well and if it's because he's never won a Euro or a World Cup, I guess Messi, Ronaldo, Bale, Rooney, Robben, Van Persie, and anybody else who hasn't played for Germany, Spain, Italy, or Brazil in the past 12 years isn't 'world class' either.

Sturridge & Lambert just as good as Rooney & RVP

I'm obsessed... with numbers that is.  Yesterday I wrote a piece about how Man U severrely skewed the market for overpaying for Herrera and Luke Shaw.  Needless  to say, I got some interesting responses from our second favorite club's fans.  Some of those referred to Rickie Lambert not being the best choice as our man up front, which is ignorant in itself as we all know Sturridge will play there as long as he's healthy.

It goes without saying that Sturridge & Suarez are eons better than Rooney & Van Persie, but Sturridge & Lambert are at least comparable.  Here are each pair's combined stats from last season:

	Sturridge & Lambert	Rooney & RVP
goals	34	29
assists	17	13
chances	82	72
npg90	0.55	0.54
gcp90	0.9	0.94
ccp90	1.4	1.6
pass %	73.5	79.4
bp %	46.1	49
sacc %	39.2	39.3
shot %	16	17.8
TTI90	27.3	25.9

As you can see, not much difference.  Of course, Rooney and RVP cost Man United £71m when adjusted for inflation, while Sturridge and Lambert only cost LFC £19m, which is £52m less for all you math-challenged Mancunians.  That would have been plenty to buy Herrera and Shaw for a club that knows how to negotiate a transfer.

How good is Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz?

Before the World Cup match between Uruguay and England, Roy Hodgson said that Luis Suarez is not yet 'world class'.  Well, he found out the hard way how wrong he was.  Suarez may not have had the greatest match, but his world class ability shone through.

Let's see how he sizes up against some other players considered 'world class'.  Charted below is their previous seasons in their respective leagues except for Falcao, his stats are from his previous and last season in La Liga with Atletico Madrid.

	Suarez	Messi	Ronaldo	Bale	Costa	Falcao
age	27	26	29	24	25	28
app (sub)	33	29(2)	30	24(3)	34(1)	34
mins	2962	2498	2537	2065	2952	2896
goals	31	28	31	15	27	28
assists	12	11	9	12	3	1
chances	87	75	47	40	45	32
npg90	0.94	0.79	0.89	0.66	0.67	0.62
gcp90	1.3	1.4	1.3	1.2	0.91	0.9
ccp90	2.6	2.8	1.6	1.8	1.4	1
pass %	74.8	85	80.3	76.3	75.5	79.9
bp %	44.1	44.6	56.4	52.2	61	59.4
sacc %	44.8	46.3	43.1	34.1	50	43.1
shot %	17.1	17.5	14.4	17.1	25	22.8
TTI90	17	13.1	12.9	11.5	15.5	12.8
	Sturridge	Y. Toure	Aguero	RVP	Rooney	Ribery
age	24	31	26	30	28	31
app (sub)	26(3)	35	20(3)	18(3)	27(2)	18(4)
mins	2267	2917	1526	1578	2446	1635
goals	21	20	17	12	17	10
assists	7	9	6	3	10	10
chances	29	40	34	16	56	56
npg90	0.83	0.43	1	0.57	0.51	0.55
gcp90	1.1	0.9	1.4	0.86	1	1.1
ccp90	1.2	1.2	2	0.9	2.1	2.8
pass %	79.3	90.1	84.9	76.7	80.1	83.9
bp %	53.4	35.1	56	50.9	48.4	50.8
sacc %	42.4	42.2	50	33.9	42.6	49.2
shot %	21.2	31.3	19.8	19.4	16.8	17
TTI90	11	10.2	11.8	10.5	15.4	17.8

Suarez comes in 2nd in non-penalty goals per 90, 3rd in goals created per 90, and 3rd in chances created per 90.  He also finished 4th in shot accuracy.  Unfortunately he had the worst pass rate, but he did have the second lowest back pass percentage, bettered only by Yaya Toure.  His TTI90 was second worst after Franck Ribery, mainly due to bad pass attempts.

Overall he is bested by Messi alone, but the Argentinian's stats are padded by 6 penalty goals where Suarez had none.  If you consider the six penalties that Ronaldo converted, Suarez is much better overall.  He already trumps the defending Ballon D'or winner in nearly every category, but take away spot kicks and CR7 is not even part of the conversation.

Speaking of the Ballon D'or, if Suarez can continue his scorching pace, Messi should be the only other player considered.  How they and their teams perform in the World Cup is probably on what the award will hinge.  Both are off to great starts, but Uruguay will have to beat Italy if they want to advance to the knock-out stages.  Suarez will probably once again have to prove his 'world class' if they are to do so.