Is Gonzalo Higuaín worth more than Suárez?

We all know Ronaldo and Messi are the cream of the European football crop, but number three is up for grabs with Luis Suárez and Gonzalo Higuaín among the top candidates.  Most people believe the Uruguayan is the clear cut choice, but a closer look at their performance data may lead to a change of mind.

The fact is, Higuaín is the superior player when it comes to the numbers.  The Argentine is considered to be more of a 'poacher' while most believe Suárez is the more complete player, but the stats tell a different story.  Both players have benefited by playing most of their careers at 'big' clubs.  Ajax may not seem like as 'big' a club as it was 20 years ago, but it still attracts some of the best young talent in the world and was absolutely loaded the years El Conejo Loco played there.  His teammates included Klaas-Jan Huntelaar, Jan Vertonghen, Urby Emanuelson, Thomas Vermaelen, Dennis Rommedahl, Maarten Stekelenburg, and Gregory van der Wiel among others.

Also, it could be argued that Suarez prospered from playing in a lesser league where his 'world class' talents allowed him to dominant his 'lesser' opponents while Higuain had to deal with the superior defences of La Liga.  Not to mention that the Eredivisie is an 'attacker's paradise' where players tend to rack up more impressive offensive stats than any other league in Europe.

Here are their accumulative stats since the 2006-07 seasons:

	npg90	ap90	gc90	cc90	ccv	pass%	sacc%	shot%	TTI90	gopd
Higuaín	0.73	0.31	1.09	1.38	0.23	0.808	0.518	0.449	12.27	0.11
Suárez	0.62	0.17	0.87	2.50	0.09	0.753	0.407	0.296	17.37	0.09

Higuaín takes almost every stat except chances created, but his chance created value is far superior.  In fact, one out of every four of his chances finds the back of the net while only one out of eleven for Suarez result in a goal.  That is one of the best ccvs I have ever seen and really sums up what Higuain is, efficient.  It's not that Suarez lacks in precision, but he fails in comparison to his Argentine counterpart.

The one thing Suarez does better, though is hard to quantify, is create chances for himself.  Though it doesn't really show self-created chances, the former Liverpool man has a successful dribble rate of 2.88 per 90 at 38% while the Napoli striker posts a 1.40 sdr90 at 47%.  Once again, Higuain is more efficient, though only completes half as many take-ons per ninety minutes.

To answer the question of this post though, no, I don't think Higuain is worth more than Suarez.  Numbers aren't everything and if you put the latter on the worst team in any league, I firmly believe he would make a bigger impact than the former.  Suarez doesn't need highly-skilled teammates to make a difference, but they obviously help.  Higuain is more efficient and can make a good team great, but I highly doubt he would be able to lead a team like Stoke to a Champions League spot.  He would make Liverpool more of a contender though, but £80m?  Messi is the only player worthy of that amount, but if we could somehow get Napoli to agree to half that, Rodgers would be crazy not to break the bank for him.

Will Suarez succeed at Barca?

Will Suarez succeed at Barca?
	Yes, he is a footballing genius.
	Yes, Messi and Neymar will play nice and share the ball.
	No, Messi and Neymar will play White Swan and Black Swan, there's no room for a third.
	No, the Liverpool curse will strike again.
pollcode.com free polls

I don't know about 'succeed' in so much as he will progress as a footballer.  I think he'll do well, but I don't think he'll repeat last season, possibly ever again, unless he goes to MLS before he gets too old.  For Suarez to improve, I just think he needs to be the primary guy the ball goes through in the last third, unfortunately at Barca, that's not going to happen.  Buena Suerte to him otherwise, but I will never cheer for Barca unless they are playing United.

There is only one reason Gerrard should ever play for England again

To knock Beckham off his perch and become the top capped outfield player in Three Lions history. That's it, two more matches and he should hang up those boots.  Gerrard is 34 and we need him to put his England days behind him and  focus on LFC.

After the World Cup embarassment, he should probably go ahead and retire, but with my disdain for 'pretty foot', I don't mind if he suits up a couple more matches.  I don't think it'll do England any good though, they've clearly got to give Barkley, Henderson, and Wilshere more playing time, if they want to improve.  They also need to get a better manager.

I've heard Gerrard called a failure on the International level and that's why he isn't 'world class'.  Rubbish, one man does not make a team, though there were times when Gerrard carried his country.  His statistical output for England has been impressive so far, especially when you consider he's played nearly every outfield position.

npgp90	gcp90	ccp90	ap90	ccv
0.22	0.46	1.97	0.24	12.3
pass%	bp%	sacc%	shot%	TTI90
80.2	25.9*	46.7	15.3	12.7
gap90	gsp90	gop90	tgop	gopd90
0.81	1.99	1.18	0.99	0.19
tp90	tack%	intp90	clrp90	bsp90
2.52	71.8	1.92	1.3	0.45

Those are solid numbers all around save his turnover rate.  His goals on pitch difference per 90 of 0.19 means he has been worth nearly an extra goal every five matches, +21.66 for his career.  Which isn't surprising when he was actually played a part in a quarter of his side's goals when he plays.

I don't really care if others don't think he's world class, but saying it is because he doesn't perform on the international stage is not valid.  In reality, he's played quite well and if it's because he's never won a Euro or a World Cup, I guess Messi, Ronaldo, Bale, Rooney, Robben, Van Persie, and anybody else who hasn't played for Germany, Spain, Italy, or Brazil in the past 12 years isn't 'world class' either.

Paul Scholes: clandestine Liverpool fan

The Ginger Prince appears obsessed with the Reds these days, sounding off on our players whenever he can.  I would say he's a wind-up muppet, but he's not, most of the time he actually talks sense.

He most recently chimed in on the Luis Suarez transfer saga, questioning whether 'El Conejo Loco' and Messi will be able to play together. “If Luis Suarez does sign for Barcelona from Liverpool, will Lionel Messi ‘accept’ him? Suarez is a centre forward and he won’t want to play out wide. I can’t see Suarez and Messi linking well together,” Scholes wrote on his Paddy Power blog.

He's not afraid to criticize his former club either.  On the Shaw transfer, he wrote, 'For a left-back to be worth £34m shows how silly the game has gone. For that money I want a centre-forward who’s going to score 30 goals a season.'  Preaching to the choir, my frienemy.

Before the World Cup, he praised 'the Liverpool way' of playing football and challenged the English to emulate it in Brazil.  On the subject he wrote, 'It would be refreshing for England to adopt Liverpool’s attacking mentality in Brazil. Really go for it. That means certainly four, and possibly five, Liverpool players in the England starting XI against Italy on June 14' and 'I’d love to see Roy be brave enough to play like Liverpool (or Man United teams of the past).'  Glad to see he realizes the glory years of his former club are in the past.

When it comes to Gerrard, he's had nothing but love, stating in the same post, 'Gerrard (a good leader who will have quickly moved on from that slip) has adjusted his game superbly, very much like I did' and 'That’s the big difference between Steven (Gerrard) and Lampard, for example. I’m not sure Lampard has the ability to control a game. He’s always someone who’s up trying to score goals.'  You know now he's expecting a nice Christmas present for the Gerrard household.

The best part is he gets a joke in here and there, for instance, 'Defensively Liverpool were poor – conceding 50 goals – but they can be contenders again next year IF they can get two world-class centre halves and a left-back. I’m talking about players of the standard of Jaap Stam and Rio Ferdinand.' Rio Ferdinand, world class!?!? Oh the wit.

It's too bad Scholesy wasted his career on the dark side.  He should have went to Italy or Spain, where he's actually more appreciated and wouldn't have played in the shadows of bigger personalities.  No matter what, I've never desired him to play for Liverpool and he has never been better than Gerrard.

Huntelaar to replace Suarez?

There are reports that we are interested in bringing in Klaas-Jan Huntelaar to 'replace' Suarez.  First and foremost, Suarez is not 'replaceable' except for maybe by Messi.  Bringing in Huntelaar would be purely on his goal-scoring prowess and not his goal creation ability, though Suarez trumps him in both regards.  Huntelaar, who had that crazy period where he jumped from Ajax to Real Madrid to Milan to Schalke in little over two seasons, has actually settled at the Bundesliga side for four seasons now.  Here is the output of him and Suarez from last season.

	Huntelaar	Suarez
age	31*	27
app (sub)	17(1)	33
mins	1454	2962
goals	12	31
assists	0	12
chances	9	87
npg90	0.74	0.94
gcp90	0.74	1.3
ccp90	0.56	2.6
ap90	0	0.37
ccv	0	0.14
pass %	74.5	74.8
bp %	41.8	44.1
sacc %	41.8	44.8
shot %	21.8	17.1
TTI90	11.5	17

*Huntelaar will turn 31 in early August.

Huntelaar is only better at one thing, shot selection, but not significantly.  He does appear to hold on to the ball better, but Suarez has approximately 37.3% more touches per match.

Other than the fact that Huntelaar will struggle to make up for the loss of goals provided by Suarez, he will provide little to no assists nor chances created.  Also, he'll be 31 this August and though the season before last he regained his 'Ajax form', he has battled niggling injuries much of the past four seasons at Schalke.  Here are his stats from the past five seasons:

	2009-10	2010-11	2011-12	2012-13	2013-14
	Milan	Schalke	Schalke	Schalke	Schalke	Totals
age	27	28	29	30	31
app (sub)	11(14)	22(2)	32	26	17(1)	108(17)
mins	1046	1986	2796	2225	1454	9507
goals	7	8	29	10	12	66
assists	0	1	8	4	0	13
chances	5	11	39	22	9	86
npg90	0.52	0.32	0.74	0.36	0.74	0.55
gcp90	0.6	0.41	1.19	0.57	0.74	0.75
ccp90	0.43	0.5	1.25	0.89	0.56	0.81
ap90	0	0.05	0.26	0.16	0	0.12
ccv	0	0.1	0.21	0.18	0	0.15
pass %	81.7	76.2	76.1	74.1	74.5	76
bp %	-	-	-	47.4	41.8	45.8
sacc %	30.6	30	35.3	28.7	44.8	45.6
shot %	14.3	8	19.3	9.3	21.8	19.8
TTI90	10.4	11.5	11.2	10.3	11.5	11

The most impressive thing is that his TTI90 stays consistent, but he appears to be unpredictable in most every other stat, which only adds to his risk.  The other thing is his price.  His valuation is set at £10.56, not a chance in hell should anyone pay that much.  Even at £8m, it's a gamble for a 15-20 goal scorer.  I can understand Rodgers' thinking here, right-footed poacher to pair with Sturridge, but there's definitely better prospects.  If Huntelaar's teammate, Jefferson Farfan, wasn't about to undergo knee surgery, he would be a much preferred choice.

The evolution of Raheem Sterling (or why we may not need Suarez anymore)

Rumor has it Real Madrid is very high on Raheem Sterling.  I'm not sure how realistic their intentions are, but if it is true, we need to do everything we can to hold on to him.  He is ultimately more important than Suarez because he is 19-years-old and exhibits 'Messi class' potential.  If he gets even remotely close to that, he's worth what ever LFC has to pay him.

I was curious to see what Sterling's potential output of the next two seasons could be, so using a very simple projection model based on his progression over the last two seasons, I came up with this:

	2012-13	2013-14	2014-15	2015-16
age	18	19	20	21
app (sub)	19(5)	24(9)	27(7)	28(8)
mins	1748	2220	2520	2935
goals	2	9	23	32
assists	2	5	7	10
chances	37	51	60	72
npg90	0.1	0.36	0.82	0.98
gcp90	0.21	0.57	1.07	1.29
ccp90	1.91	2.06	2.14	2.21
TTI90	12.3	12.1	12	11.7

Before anyone takes leave of their senses, these are max potential projections.  I'm not saying Sterling won't score more than 23 goals next season, but it's highly unlikely.  What is probable though is that he'll have more than 7 assists and that his goal created per 90 will be around 1.07.  Let's say he only reaches 80% of his goal max, which means he scores 18 goals.  To reach a 1.07 gcp90, he'll need 12 total assists, a very realistic achievement.

As you might have noticed, with these projections, Sterling will break the Prem goal scoring record in two years.  The chances of that happening are as likely as Everton winning the league.  In fact, if he accounts for 42 goals created, it will be tied for Drogba (2009-10) for second most all-time next to Suarez from last season.  Probably not going to happen either but even if he has a 60% goal output, he finishes with 19 goals plus 10 assists, which is a decent season to say the least.

I was curious to see the progression of Messi from age 18 to 21, for a possible comparison.  Unfortunately, 'chances created' is a relatively new recorded stat, so I only included what I could.

	2005-6	2006-7	2007-8	2008-9
age	18	19	20	21
app (sub)	11(6)	23(3)	23(5)	27(4)
mins	909	1995	1998	2513
goals	2	14	10	23
assists	6	2	12	11
npg90	0.2	0.63	0.27	0.72
gcp90	0.8	0.72	0.99	1.22

Interestingly enough, his goal creation regressed from age 18 to 19 and if you take away his penalty goals, he actually only had an open field goal creation of 0.81 at age 20.  Lack of chances created makes it awfully hard to compare the two players.  By just these stats alone, Messi is far and way the better player, but will Sterling have a lapse in his career next season like the Argentinian did?  I guess we'll have to wait and see.

I'm not saying Sterling will ever reach the heights of Messi, but he does possess the potential to do so. You don't get mentioned in the same breathe as Real Madrid if you don't. 

Lazar Markovic: quick as Messi, crafty as Zlatan

The player we have latest been linked to is Benfica and Serbian winger/striker Lazar Markovic.  He is 20-years-old, 175cm (5'9"), lightning quick, and has a skill set that reminds me of Zlatan Ibrahimovic.

For some reason finding statistics for Liga Sagres is very difficult, even if I spoke Portuguese.  I won't even get into stats from the Serbian SuperLiga, if anything more than superficial exist.  Here's what I could throw together:

app (sub)	96
mins	6318
goals	19
assists	18
chances	7*
npg90	0.27
gcp90	0.53
ccp90	0.88*
pass	316**
att	398**
pass %	79.4*
bp %	60.6*
sacc %	50*
shot %	12.5**
TTI90	9**

* stats are only from European matches in 2013-14 for Benfica

** stats are from European matches in 2012-13 for Partizan Belgrade & 2013-14 for Benfica

Overall, not that impressive, but he does show flashes of brilliance and he did just turn 20 in March.  He also tends to command influence in his performances as shown in this video:

Is he worth the £25m though? Potentially yes, but it's quite risky.  He's an exciting player with a decade of football ahead of him.  Statistically, he doesn't blow anyone away, especially his back pass percentage, but he does create a goal every other match.

I'm not one who advocates spending that kind of cash for a potential superstar, but I'm on the fence with Markovic.  There's just something about him that makes me think he's going to be quite special in a few years and it would be a shame if Liverpool lost out.

What Barça has to offer for Suarez

(Note: Most of this article was written before today's incident.)

Though I doubt the reports that Luis Suarez wants out are true, after the abrupt and classless exit of Fernando Torres, nothing surprises me these days.  The thing is we really can't afford to take straight cash for him, especially when whomever we replace him with, and we are going to have to replace 31 non-penalty goals and 13 assists with someone, is going to be well over-priced.  Why not try to get best value from whomever we sell him, which right now appears to be Barça.

So who can we get from the Catalan club that would be acceptable?  Well, Messi of course.  Unfortunately, that's not going to happen.  The other player who would be a straight fair trade would be Neymar, but it's highly doubtful that they would pry their cold, dead hands from the baby Brazilian wizard even if we were to throw in cash and/or Daniel Agger.  Other than replacing Suarez, we could use a left back, centre back, and another defensive midfielder, so let's see what they have to offer in those regards.

Let's look at what they have to offer on attack (with a comparison with Suarez):

	Suarez	Pedro	Sanchez	Deulofeu	Tello
age	27	26	25	20	23
pp	F	F(L)	F(R)	M(R)	F(L,R)
app (sub)	33	28(9)	27(7)	9(16)	2(20)
mins	2962	2354	2374	900	428
goals	31	15	19	3	1
assists	12	8	10	3	2
chances	87	37	47	9	9
npg90	0.94	0.57	0.72	0.3	0.21
gcp90	1.3	0.89	1.1	0.6	0.63
ccp90	2.6	1.4	1.8	0.9	1.9
pass %	74.8	84.5	79.7	78.5	82.1
bp %	44.1	66.5	63.7	47	77.6
sacc %	44.8	41.4	52.8	67.7	25
shot %	17.1	21.4	20	9.7	5
TTI90	17	10.8	13	10.3	12.1

The only player on the list above who we should even consider taking is Alexis Sanchez, plus at least £20m.  He has shown he can create the goals that we need to replace Suarez, but his backpass % is quite worrisome.  Pedro can score, but needs service, we would probably need him plus another player plus cash to justify the transaction.  Taking either Deulofeu, who impressed with his energy for Everton last season, or Tello, who appears to be great at creating goal chances, is just too risky.  We need players who have solid records of production.

Here's what they have to offer on defense:

	Busquets	Song	Montoya	Alba	Bartra
age	26	27	23	25	23
pp	DM	DM	RB	LB	CB
app (sub)	30(2)	12(7)	12(1)	14(1)	17(3)
mins	2650	1130	1123	1195	1590
goals	1	0	0	0	1
assists	1	0	2	2	1
chances	18	5	4	18	6
npg90	0.03	0	0	0	0.06
gcp90	0.07	0	0.16	0.15	0.11
ccp90	0.6	0.4	0.3	1.4	0.3
pass %	92.5	91.7	87.6	89.4	89.9
bp %	30.1	31.6	52.7	42.2	28.6
sacc %	25	50	12.5	60	37.5
shot %	12.5	0	0	0	12.5
TTI90	7.5	7.9	8.6	9	6.8
tp90	2.8	2.9	3.4	1.7	3.1
tack %	44.9	49.2	57.1	38.6	51.9
intp90	2	2.2	1.7	1.9	3.2
clrp90	1.4	1.1	2.1	3	4
dribpp90	1.3	1	1.2	0.7	0.8
bsp90	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.7
adwp90	1.9	1.9	2.6	1.3	2.5
adwon%	54.9	55.8	55.2	50	67.7

Busquets is a great passer, especially considering his very low back pass rate, and for a defensive midfielder, he's not a bad chance creator either.  What worries me about him is his subpar tackle rate, though it is better than Lucas at 42.9%.  Song is the better true DM than Busquets, but offers next to nothing on the attack.

Montoya, who can play both left and right back (which is why he is included here), is the best defender overall. He is the best tackler at the highest success rate and leads in both clearances per 90 and aerial duels won per 90.  Alba is a great attacking left back, but not all that impressive on defense.  He produces the most chances per 90, but has both a poor tackle rate and success percentage.  

Finally we have Bartra, who overall is the cream of the defender crop  His 89.9% passing is nothing short of amazing when you consider only 28.6% are back passes. There is actually little to nothing that Bartra does poorly.  If we were to get him or Busquets and Pedro, plus £20m, I could live with that.