Showing posts with label Transfer. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Transfer. Show all posts

Monday, August 4, 2014

The five signings Liverpool missed out on this year

There were quite a few gems for taking at the beginning of the transfer window, unfortunately most of the young, talented future stars have been taken.

1. Alfred Finnbogason, 25, Real Sociedad
Real upgraded from Griezmann when they picked up the Icelandic striker from SC Heerenveen.  He lead all scorers in the Eredivisie last season with 29 goals and also added 10 assists from 57 chances created.  The season before he scored 24 times.  He doesn't have all the physical attributes to out-muscle or speed past his opponents and relies on positional instinct and clinical finishing to score.

2. Dušan Tadić, 25, Southampton
Another Eredivisie product, Tadić lead the Dutch league in assists with 14 and chances created with 133.  He also scored 16 goals.  Southampton got him for £11m, considerably less for what we paid for the player he replaced.  I wrote about him here.

3. Yann M'Vila, 24, Inter Milan
One of the best defensive midfielder prospects under the age of 25 in Europe, M'Vila has found himself on loan in Italy for the next year.  He'll probably use that time to impress a future suitor and there will be aplenty.  His physical prowess, passing ability, and defensive instincts allow him to dominate matches in Serie A, especially considering he is not the fastest of players.  He also has an eye for attack, in his last season with Rennes, the 2012-13 season, he created 43 chances and posted an impressive 7.7 successful long balls per 90 at a 67.7% rate.

4. Kelechi Iheanacho, 17, Man City
If you watched Liverpool's preseason 'victory' over Man City at Yankee Stadium July 30, you may have noticed Iheanacho, He the only City player to convert a penalty.  Iheanacho introduced himself to the world at U17 World Cup, where he put in a performance for the ages.  He scored 6 goals and assisted on 5 more, a 1.77 goal created per 90 average might I add, to lead Nigeria to the title and winning the Golden Ball in the process.  He added the 2013 CAF Most Promising Player of the Year award to his cabinet as well.

5. Álvaro Morata, 21, Juventus
Morata's abilities and potential have been well-documented elsewhere and though I think he'll be a goal-scoring machine at the Turin club, don't expect much else.  Does it matter though?  The former Real Madrid starlet has Golden Boot potential, last season he averaged a goal every 90 minutes played and his above-Serie A-average pace should lead him to a very fruitful Juventus career.  His physical attributes alone would leave one to believe he may one day be successful in the Prem as well.


Tuesday, July 29, 2014

A German 'Ace' not named Reus worthy of consideration

Max Kruse is one of those rare footballers who does a lot of things well that the average fan fails to recognize.  He doesn't score a lot of goals, he doesn't even get that many assists, and in fact, he's a fairly average passer.  So what does he do that makes stat junkies like myself drool?  He's simply amazing on the ball and extraordinary with specialized passing.

He spent last season at Borussia Möchengladbach and the season prior at FC Freiburg, his impact on each was profound, but I'll get to that in a bit.  First a look at his stats from both years:
cc90ccvcr90cr%lb90lb%tb%sdr90sdr%
13-142.939.21.9744.93.918453.93.8867.4
12-132.858.61.2820.53.0379.272.22.8460.8

Nearly three chances created per 90, a successful cross rate rivaled by no one in the Prem and only the well-esteemed Ricardo Rodriguez bettered in the Bundesliga, 3-4 long balls per 90 at an 80+ percent completion rate, and successful dribble stats that only the likes of Ribery, Firmino, Draxler, and Gotze equaled.  Pretty impressive company for a relative unknown, but those aren't the only things that make Kruse an attractive transfer target.

The year before he transferred to Freiburg from St. Pauli, the Black Forest club finished 12th.  Kruse led them to a fifth place finish and a Europa league spot, four points shy of Champions League football.  It was their second-highest finish in the Bundesliga ever and only the third time they had reached the Europa/UEFA Cup.  Last season, after he left for Borussia Möchengladbach, Freiburg dropped to 14th.

Prior to joining his current club, Gladbach finished 8th, scored 45 goals, and tallied 47 points.  Last season they finished 6th, scored 59 goals, and earned 55 points.  Much of their success was due to Kruse and his partner up front, Raffael.  The bottom line is, he wills his side to win and his uncanny style mesmerizes and befuddles opposition players and coaches.  I honestly think he would be a great addition to Liverpool, just imagine he, Gerrard, Sturridge, Coutinho, and Sterling passing the ball about the pitch like they were playing against a bunch of ice cream truck clowns.

Monday, July 28, 2014

Do desperate times call for Christian Benteke?

Last summer, Christian Benteke was one of the most sought after strikers in the Prem.  Chelsea and Tottenham both made approaches to Villa for his services, but apparently were turned away by a ridiculous £25m transfer fee.  Turns out the London clubs played it smart as the Belgian striker endured a injury-riddled sophomore slump in the Prem.  Injuries to his hip and knee as well as a ruptured Achilles tendon limited his pitch time to just 24 starts and 2 substitutes.  He also further exposed his biggest weaknesses, passing and ball control.

Last season and the season before, Benteke posted true turnover index 90s of 22.2 and 20.7, primarily due to poor passing.  Those are some of, if not the, worst numbers I have ever seen.  The fact that he declined in his second season from his first is even more alarming.  His passing is even less impressive, going from a dismal 64.89% is inaugural season to an abysmal 60.73% last year.  At least he isn't passing backwards for percentage sake, posting 46.7% two seasons ago and an improved 45.5% in his second season.  Maybe he should do a little more back-passing to save from turning over the ball.

He did make some positive contributions though.  For a player who isn't a great passer, he does create chances, nearly two every 90 minutes last season and 1.69 the previous.  His non-penalty goal scoring rate of 0.44 every 90 minutes and 0.64 goal created per 90 the last two seasons combined aren't unimpressive either.  Probably the oddest stat is his long balls per 90 of 1.19 at a 72.4% success rate, for a forward-lying player he's pretty good at finding others at far lengths.

So should Benteke even be considered an option? Well, the negatives are apparent, though I think his passing would improve on a more talented side and one that plays a less negative-style of football.  The turnovers may have something to do with him being 23-years-old, but the fact he showed no improvement from first to second season is worrisome.  He is also coming off a very serious injury, but apparently his recovery is going well. I seem to making excuses to sign him, so I'll stop there.  He should have to be a bargain basement deal or even a free to be considered at any point, or we really are that desperate.

The 'dream' signings to forget Loic Remy

Now that the Remy deal is off, Rodgers should be back in the market for another striker unless Divock Origi doesn't go back to Lille on loan, but I'm sure that was a non-negotiable part of the deal.  There are plenty of options out there, though the more experienced may be harder to convince to leave their current clubs and the younger ones are risks due to lack of experience.  Then you have the older, temporary solution, who hardly ever make mistakes, but don't always adapt well and produce.

Two of these 'dream' signings would be either Pedro or José María Callejón. The chances of Rodriguez leaving Barcelona are little to none, he would have to be 'sold' into coming to Liverpool, it would take more than just money to convince him and who says Barca would let him leave? It really depends on whether he is willing to play fourth fiddle to Messi, Neymar, and Suarez, when the Uruguayan becomes eligible, or be a starter and get all the minutes he wants at Liverpool.  His numbers the past five seasons in La Liga and in Europe are not mind-blowing, but far from shabby:
npg90ap90gc90cc90ccvpass%sacc%shot%TTI90
0.440.220.671.3316.288.448.620.610.98

Callejón may be easier to convince to leave Napoli.  Rafa may even take a player or two in exchange for the Spaniard, who had a breakout season last year, his first in Italy.  His stats from the last five seasons of La Liga, Serie A, and European competitions are comparable to Pedro, though less impressive:
npg90ap90gc90cc90ccvpass%sacc%shot%TTI90
0.310.170.481.3912.181.642.512.911.18

I highly doubt we could pry either one of these players from their respective clubs, but it wouldn't hurt to inquire.  Barcelona are interested in Agger and though I'd rather we hang on to the Dane, if it means getting Pedro, it'd be hard to pass up.
Two others come to mind and I've written about both before.  Seydou Doumbia has been tearing up the Russian Premier League and the Swiss Super League for years now.  You can read more about his amazing production here. 

I've briefly mentioned the torrid scoring rate of 21-year-old Jesé Rodríguez.  The Real Madrid forward is off to a blistering start in his career and the sky seems the limit.  His influence on his club is beyond just numbers though, in the 18 matches he featured last season, Real earned 47 pts, in the 20 he did not, they only managed 40.  He is coming off injury though, which is a worry.  Before so, he posted these ridiculous numbers:
gc90cc90ccvpass%bp%sacc%shot%TTI90gopd
1.31.9430.783.252.4052.4023.8010.901.24

Oh yeah, then there's Marco Reus.

Next I'll write about some lesser known, less expensive, but certainly less sexier picks like Nolito, Kevin Gameiro, and Max Kruse.

Friday, July 11, 2014

Is Marco Reus the 'dream signing'?

It seems some people believe that Marco Reus would be the 'dream signing' for us.  Well, other than the fact that he would cost at least £35m to sign him, yes, he would be a great pick up, but do we really need him? I don't think so, he is a better all-round attacking midfielder than Sterling and Coutinho, but he's also 6 years older than the former and 3 years senior the latter. Let's look at their outputs from last season:

Marco ReusCoutinhoSterling
age252219
app(subs)26(4)28(5)24(9)
mins220823232220
p9024.525.824.7
goals1659
assist1375
chances906451
npgp900.410.190.36
gcp901.180.470.57
ccp903.672.52.06
ap900.530.270.2
ccv14.410.89.7
pass%74.580.681.7
bp%44.536.746.8
sacc%43.628.748.9
shot%14.5720
TTI9017.61112.1
gap901.271.431.26
gsp902.413.022.8
gop901.141.591.54
tgop1.241.321.32
Stats definitions can be found here.

Reus seriously dominates the individual p90s, his 3.67 chance created per 90 is impressive alone, but 14.4% of those are converted into goals, better than both his above counterparts.  His passing overall could improve and probably the most perplexing stat is his goals on pitch 90 being -0.10 less than his team's gop average. Also his true turnover rate is a dismal 17.6, mainly due to his errant passing and being easily dispossessed.

Do we really need to spend £35m on an attacking midfielder? Don't get me wrong, I understand we can play him 'in the hole' behind Sturridge, but we could also you those funds to buy better defenders and not have to try and outscore all of our opponents.  Plus I think we need to give Sterling, Coutinho, and even Jordan Henderson as much time on the pitch as possible to so they can become as good as Reus is now.

Saturday, June 28, 2014

Lazar Markovic: quick as Messi, crafty as Zlatan

The player we have latest been linked to is Benfica and Serbian winger/striker Lazar Markovic.  He is 20-years-old, 175cm (5'9"), lightning quick, and has a skill set that reminds me of Zlatan Ibrahimovic.

For some reason finding statistics for Liga Sagres is very difficult, even if I spoke Portuguese.  I won't even get into stats from the Serbian SuperLiga, if anything more than superficial exist.  Here's what I could throw together:

app (sub)96
mins6318
goals19
assists18
chances7*
npg900.27
gcp900.53
ccp900.88*
pass316**
att398**
pass %79.4*
bp %60.6*
sacc %50*
shot %12.5**
TTI909**

* stats are only from European matches in 2013-14 for Benfica
** stats are from European matches in 2012-13 for Partizan Belgrade & 2013-14 for Benfica

Overall, not that impressive, but he does show flashes of brilliance and he did just turn 20 in March.  He also tends to command influence in his performances as shown in this video:


Is he worth the £25m though? Potentially yes, but it's quite risky.  He's an exciting player with a decade of football ahead of him.  Statistically, he doesn't blow anyone away, especially his back pass percentage, but he does create a goal every other match.

I'm not one who advocates spending that kind of cash for a potential superstar, but I'm on the fence with Markovic.  There's just something about him that makes me think he's going to be quite special in a few years and it would be a shame if Liverpool lost out.

Friday, June 27, 2014

Sturridge & Lambert just as good as Rooney & RVP

I'm obsessed... with numbers that is.  Yesterday I wrote a piece about how Man U severrely skewed the market for overpaying for Herrera and Luke Shaw.  Needless  to say, I got some interesting responses from our second favorite club's fans.  Some of those referred to Rickie Lambert not being the best choice as our man up front, which is ignorant in itself as we all know Sturridge will play there as long as he's healthy.

It goes without saying that Sturridge & Suarez are eons better than Rooney & Van Persie, but Sturridge & Lambert are at least comparable.  Here are each pair's combined stats from last season:

Sturridge & LambertRooney & RVP
goals3429
assists1713
chances8272
npg900.550.54
gcp900.90.94
ccp901.41.6
pass %73.579.4
bp %46.149
sacc %39.239.3
shot %1617.8
TTI9027.325.9

As you can see, not much difference.  Of course, Rooney and RVP cost Man United £71m when adjusted for inflation, while Sturridge and Lambert only cost LFC £19m, which is £52m less for all you math-challenged Mancunians.  That would have been plenty to buy Herrera and Shaw for a club that knows how to negotiate a transfer.

Saturday, June 21, 2014

Daley Blind is the epitome of World Cup sensationalism

There are reports that Daley Blind may be one of the left backs on Rodgers' transfer wish list, especially after his two solid World Cup performances for the Dutch, but is really that good?  Let's take a look at his output last season for Ajax and compare it to last season for Flanagan and the previous campaign of Jose Enrique.

BlindFlanaganEnrique
age242128
app(subs)292325(4)
mins250318902257
goals112
assist114
chances371326
gcp900.070.10.24
ccp901.330.621.04
pass%88.183.780.4
bp%38.742.637
sacc%28.642.936.4
shot%3.614.39.1
tack pm2.73.42.5
tack %50.445.775.3
int pm2.61.71.2
clear pm23.32.5
dribb past pm1.31.70.3
bs pm0.20.20.1
adwon pm1.51.30.4
adwon%65.746.838.2
own goals000
TTI9010.99.215.6

Overall, I would have to agree Blind is a slightly better player than Flanagan and Enrique.  He is clearly better at passing, chance creating, and aerial duels, but should work on his shot selection.  The problem I have with Blind is how much will he cost and is it worth bringing in a slightly better player, especially one who is currently riding the World Cup hype train though his club stats aren't anywhere near someone like Ricardo Rodriguez?

A couple of things that should be factored in is that he not only plays in the Eredivisie, but he plays for the best team in the league.  Ajax has won the league four straight years now, though only by an average of five points.  Ajax and PSV usually have the best talent in the league, so his stats, especially his passing are probably skewed by having the most talented teammates.

His age should be taken into account as well.  He is 24, three years Flanagan's senior.  Who is to say Flanagan won't be as good or better if he can get the playing time over the next few seasons?  Flanagan seems to improve slightly every match and his stats from the Prem last year are not too shabby considering his inexperience.

I'm not saying it would hurt to add another left back, we are gonna need at least three players at every position to get through next year's schedule congestiation if we want to be successful, but why bring in just another good player when there's a Rodriguez out there?  Blind is satisfactory, but Rodgers can't get caught up in all the World Cup ballyhoo.

Alberto Moreno isn't worth £16m

Sure, he's 21, but will he develop into the all-round left back we need? Let's compare him to Jon Flanagan and Jose Enrique over the last two seasons.

MorenoFlanaganEnrique
2012-1313-1410-1213-1412-1313-14
app(subs)12(3)27(2)122325(4)6(2)
mins10832414100418902257604
goals030120
assist100142
chances819513268
gcp900.80.1100.10.240
ccp900.670.710.450.621.041.2
pass%78.178.979.483.780.480.4
bp%4536.5-42.63740.8
sacc%2017042.936.433.3
shot%013014.39.10
tack pm1.91.81.73.42.51.3
tack %37.839.6-45.775.353.3
int pm3.12.51.81.71.21.1
off won pm0.300.20.10.20.1
clear pm2.81.51.53.32.52.5
dribb past pm1.10.80.81.70.30.3
bs pm0.30.30.20.20.10.1
adwon pm0.70.90.51.30.40.3
adwon%47.85052.646.838.222.2
own goals000000
TTI9010.48.569.215.611.3
*Note: Jon Flanagan's '1st season' are his stats from league appearances from 2010-12.*

At a glance, Moreno is not much of an upgrade from Flanagan and no where near as good as a healthy Enrique.  All he really brings to the table is a better interception and blocked shot rate, which is admirable, but not worth £16m.

Enrique does turnover the ball significantly more than the other two, but his back pass rate tells me that it is probably primarily in the opposition third and his chances created per 90 somewhat makes up for his risk-taking.

We definitely need more coverage at left back, but I don't think Alberto Moreno is the answer.  He would probably be a solid addition to the squad, but if you are going to spend £16m, you should be buying a Sakho and not an Aspas.

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