Liverpool 0, Real Madrid 3: A reality check

The first match I get to watch live in nearly two weeks and it does nothing for my confidence in this side.  In fact it confirms any doubts that we are a second rate European side.  It's not that Real Madrid dominated, because they didn't, but they clearly have the next level of talent that we lack.  We had no answer for Rodriquez, Roos, and of course, Ronaldo, as they easily moved the ball downfield, creating opportunity after opportunity.

There was nothing to be done about the first goal and if Rodriguez and Ronaldo continue to develop that kind of on-field telepathy, the Champions League is their oyster.  The second goal was clearly a fluke as Benzema will try to claim he meant to bloop it in the net like that, but his overall and past performances are clear indications he benefits greatly from having world class teammates.  The overrated Frenchman did little else, but make bad decisions on the ball and was gifted the third goal as our defence showed it's true 'lack of communication' colors once again.

It's not that Stevie-G and company put in a bad performance, but they were clearly over-whelmed by a much more talented side.  Some of the usual problems we've had this season on attack were even more exposed by the quicker Madridistas. When we weren't being painfully predictable on the ball, making errant passing, not creating space nor finding it, they were taking the ball from us with ease.  It became almost a comical affair towards the end, as if we were a school boy side given a once-in-a-million shot at one of the biggest clubs in Europe.  Unfortunately this wasn't a movie and in reality, the school boy side loses no matter how valiant they fight.

I don't really have time to get into individual player performances, but I will say that Coutinho and Gerrard were the best of the bunch.  The Brazilian and our captain played their hardest, but weren't going to take down the Spanish giants by themselves.  The worst were Balotelli and Glen Johnson, who appeared to return to his turnover prone ways.  The Italian just has no heart, no determination, is easily deterred, and lacks chemistry with his teammates.  Seems like a matter of time before rumours of his transfer in January take fruition, especially if we can line-up a replacement or possibly two.

I was not able to watch the full matches against West Brom nor QPR, but from highlights and statistics, they weren't impressive wins.  Since neither side is top ten material, it should be alarming.  I'm not one of those 'hey, three points is three points people', especially against clubs we should dominate if we have dreams of returning to Champions League next season.  Our side isn't in trouble, but we can forget about winning anything, we just aren't good enough.

CL draw: A club we've beaten every time, a club Gerrard has a grudge against, and the 'Chelsea' of Bulgaria

Though nothing will be 'easy', good fortune gifted LFC with a very manageable Champions League group.  Though we have met only three times ever, we have beaten Real Madrid each time.  The first time in the 1981 European Cup final in the Parc De Princes in France. Alan Kennedy's lone effort in the 81st minutes gave the Reds a 1-0 victory and a return to European supremacy after being dethroned by Nottingham Forest the previous two seasons.

Sergio Ramos & company will look to make amends for his club's embarassing display in their only trip ever to Anfield in March 2009.  They were dismantled by Gerrard and Torres with Andre Dossena adding further to their misery with a late goal of his own.

We were drawn against Basel in the group stage of the 2002 Champions League as well.  Both ties ended in draws, 1-1 at Anfield and 3-3 at St. Jakob-Park.  In the latter match, Gerrard was subbed for Salif Diao in one of his most embarassing career moments.

PFC Ludogorets Razgrad were founded in 2001.  They have about as much a history as Chelsea.

The Transfer Rubbish Bin: Moreno likely? Di Maria Possible? Agger gone?

Sevilla club president Juan Castro has proclaimed that Liverpool have not yet met his club's evaluation for Alberto Moreno.  They want closer to £20m for the 22-year-old left back and LFC apparently have offer £14-16m plus bonuses.  The Mirror is reporting that the deal will be done after Sevilla play Real Madrid in the UEFA Super Cup match tomorrow.  Not sure why that matters because unless they sign another left back by the then, they won't have a true one to replace Moreno if he's sold.  Navarro and possibly Vitolo can 'cover' there, but neither are 'true' left backs.

Recovered from World Cup injury, Angel Di Maria has reported to Real Madrid despite grumblings that he desires to leave.  If he plays tomorrow in the UEFA Super Cup, it'll raise a few eyebrows.  Paris St. Germain would be the likeliest destination, but unless they rid themselves of a couple of 'A' list players, Lavezzi and Cavani in particular, they can't buy the 26-year-old winger due to their settlement agreement with the CFCB of UEFA.  That's a scintillating read, by the way.  Apparently Man United are the current favorites and are preparing a £55m bid for the Argentine. That is way too much, even for a player of Di Maria's class.  Is he part English? His market value according to transfermarkt.co.uk is £44m. Other than dinero, I can't see him walking into a starting spot for us like he would at United.  Would you sit Sterling or Coutinho for him? Not I, though we could play him in the hole which would take time away from Henderson and make Lallana's transfer even more irrelevant.  Considering he wants out of Real Madrid because the additions of James Rodriguez and Toni Kroos will severely cut into his pitch time, United would be better for him.  One can dream though.

Daniel Agger is apparently broken and bent.  So much so that he has gone 'tearfully begging' to Rodgers for a transfer.  It's a nice story and may hold some truth, but doubtful.  Sure, the 29-year-old centre back has been utilized considerably less the last couple of seasons, but he is still quality and we will need him as insurance, in case of injury to others. Their are also a ton of fixtures to be played next 'year' and the more coverage, the better off we'll be.  I hope we do whatever is necessary to hold on to our Vice Captain.  Good news is Rodgers has claimed that there have not been any approaches for the Dagger.

There is also word in the cyberspace that a 'huge' signing is coming.  Hopefully it isn't Cavani or Lavezzi or god help me, Mauro Icardi.  None of those players will be very helpful to us and considering Rodger's distaste for Andy Carroll, Cavani's style of play is quite similar though somewhat superior.  The Uruguyuan will problem come at an exorbitant price as well.  I also don't think Moreno can be considered a 'big deal' either, he is quality and may one day be considered 'world class', but he is years from that now.  Then who could be? Cuadrado? Reus? Fred? I just puked.

The 'dream' signings to forget Loic Remy

Now that the Remy deal is off, Rodgers should be back in the market for another striker unless Divock Origi doesn't go back to Lille on loan, but I'm sure that was a non-negotiable part of the deal.  There are plenty of options out there, though the more experienced may be harder to convince to leave their current clubs and the younger ones are risks due to lack of experience.  Then you have the older, temporary solution, who hardly ever make mistakes, but don't always adapt well and produce.

Two of these 'dream' signings would be either Pedro or José María Callejón. The chances of Rodriguez leaving Barcelona are little to none, he would have to be 'sold' into coming to Liverpool, it would take more than just money to convince him and who says Barca would let him leave? It really depends on whether he is willing to play fourth fiddle to Messi, Neymar, and Suarez, when the Uruguayan becomes eligible, or be a starter and get all the minutes he wants at Liverpool.  His numbers the past five seasons in La Liga and in Europe are not mind-blowing, but far from shabby:

npg90	ap90	gc90	cc90	ccv	pass%	sacc%	shot%	TTI90
0.44	0.22	0.67	1.33	16.2	88.4	48.6	20.6	10.98

Callejón may be easier to convince to leave Napoli.  Rafa may even take a player or two in exchange for the Spaniard, who had a breakout season last year, his first in Italy.  His stats from the last five seasons of La Liga, Serie A, and European competitions are comparable to Pedro, though less impressive:

npg90	ap90	gc90	cc90	ccv	pass%	sacc%	shot%	TTI90
0.31	0.17	0.48	1.39	12.1	81.6	42.5	12.9	11.18

I highly doubt we could pry either one of these players from their respective clubs, but it wouldn't hurt to inquire.  Barcelona are interested in Agger and though I'd rather we hang on to the Dane, if it means getting Pedro, it'd be hard to pass up.

Two others come to mind and I've written about both before.  Seydou Doumbia has been tearing up the Russian Premier League and the Swiss Super League for years now.  You can read more about his amazing production here. 

I've briefly mentioned the torrid scoring rate of 21-year-old Jesé Rodríguez.  The Real Madrid forward is off to a blistering start in his career and the sky seems the limit.  His influence on his club is beyond just numbers though, in the 18 matches he featured last season, Real earned 47 pts, in the 20 he did not, they only managed 40.  He is coming off injury though, which is a worry.  Before so, he posted these ridiculous numbers:

gc90	cc90	ccv	pass%	bp%	sacc%	shot%	TTI90	gopd
1.3	1.94	30.7	83.2	52.40	52.40	23.80	10.90	1.24

Oh yeah, then there's Marco Reus.

Next I'll write about some lesser known, less expensive, but certainly less sexier picks like Nolito, Kevin Gameiro, and Max Kruse.

Which Real Madrid young gun would you prefer?

Isco
Isco's strength is passing, whether it be long crosses, long balls, through balls, or creating chances, he is a master.  He's also pretty accurate at shooting.  His biggest fault is that his teammates are really poor shots or he puts them in impossible-to-score positions, which is why is chance created value is mediocre. Here are his stats from last season pertaining to those attributes:

ccv	cc90	pass%	bp%	cr%	lb%	tb%	sacc%	shot%
8.5	3.21	88.1	42	32.2	81.8	53.3	36.4	18.2

Illarramendi
Illarramendi is a solid defensive midfielder who is also a great passer.  He is especially deadly accurate on long balls, completing 97 of 108 last season.  His stats from last season are pretty good all around, showing no signs of a significant weakness.

gc90	cc90	pass%	bp%	lb%	tp90	t%	intp90
0.19	1.35	88.9	40.1	89.8	4.19	42.1	2.45

Jesé
If Jesé can continue his torrid goal-creating pace of last season with hopefully a lot more pitch time, he'll easily become the next megastar at Real.  His influence on his club is beyond just numbers though, in the 18 matches he featured last season, Real earned 47 pts, in the 20 he did not, they only managed 40.  Had he not torn his anterior cruciate ligament, they might have won the league as well.  His stats from last year are just plain ridiculous:

gc90	cc90	ccv	pass%	bp%	sacc%	shot%	TTI90	gopd
1.34	1.94	30.7	83.2	52.4	52.4	23.8	10.9	1.24

A 30.7 chance created value and a 1.24 goals on pitch difference? Mental.

Which Real Madrid young gun would you prefer?
	Isco
	Illarramendi
	Jesé
pollcode.com free polls

Post-Suarez Liverpool will not 'collapse' like post-Bale Spurs

There has been a lot of speculation that what happened to the Spurs last season after Bale left for Real Madrid could be what awaits Liverpool now that Suarez is gone, but that's highly unlikely.  First and foremost, the Spurs 'collapse' was not just due to Bale's exit, but a massive roster changeover that saw seven important players replaced.  Villas-Boas essentially started with a new club and unlike Bale's final season with Spurs, Tottenham started the 2013-14 season on the grace of fortune.

They won their first two matches, at Palace and home against Swans, 1-0, both via penalty converted by Robert Soldado.  Then a loss at Emirates was followed by an unimpressive 2-0 win at White Hart Lane over Norwich City and a 1-0 win at Cardiff that despite 12 shots on goal, required 93' heroics by Paulinho to seal the victory.  They sat 2nd on the table, though undeservedly, when they next welcomed Chelsea, only managing a 1-1 draw despite going ahead in the 19th minute and having a man advantage after Torres was sent off for a second yellow in the 81st.

They still sat 2nd, but the 3-0 thrashing by the Hammers at White Hart Lane that followed revealed their biggest weakness, their inability to convert goal scoring opportunities.  Despite dominating possession, having a passing success rate of 83%, and 14 shots (4 on goal), Spurs could not put the ball in the back of the net.  Last season they were 11th in the league with 9.4% shot conversion rate and a chance created value of 7.5%, 15th in the league.  Roberto Soldado, the player they brought in to make up for Bale's goal-scoring absence, only scored 6 goals the entire campaign and 4 of those were pens.

Though Spurs managed to garner 7 points in the next three matches (@Villa, Hull, & @Everton), they had yet to play City or Liverpool, who handed them 4 decimating losses with a staggering combined -19 goal difference.  Ironically, that same defence which let goals go in against the top two like ghosts trying to stop bullets, saved Tottenham from a disastrous year, only allowing 31 goals against the other 17 clubs in the remaining 34 fixtures.

So how much did Bale's loss play in their attacking downfall? In his last season, Bale scored 21 goals and managed 4 assists.  He was responsible for 31.8% of goals scored and 37.8% goals created.  The Welshman was also responsible for 17.1% of his side's chances created, but his 5.3% chance created value was far below Spurs' average. As a team, Spurs scored 11 more goals, 66 to 55, and allowed 5 less, 46 to 51. Their shot conversion rate of 9.7%, was only 0.3% better, but their chance created value of 8.8% exceeded their following season's effort by 1.3%.  For all his efforts though, Bale had only a goals on pitch difference of 0.06, which means essentially he gave Tottenham a +2 goal edge for the season.

The most indicative sign that it was the unfamiliarity of the group instead of the absence of one player that lead to their lack of productivity was their passing and drop in chances created value.  The Spurs' overall passing rate dropped from 83.1 to 81.8% and ccv fell from 8.8% to 7.5%.  They clearly had trouble breaking down the opposition defence and creating more easily converted chances as they only attempted 5% of their shots inside their opponent's box, 2nd worst in the league.

Suarez, much like Bale, was responsible for a large part of Liverpool's goal-scoring prowess last season.  His 31 goals and 13 assists were 30.7% of goals scored and 43.6% goals created.  His chance created value was 14.2%, second to only Sturridge and 1.3% better than the club rate. His goals on pitch difference was 1.49,  a +0.17 difference compared to Liverpool's average of 1.32.  Suarez was more important to Liverpool's attack than Bale, but Liverpool still has Sturridge, Sterling, and Gerrard, while Spurs also got rid of Defoe and Dempsey along with Bale.  Those three made up 59.1% of Spurs' goals and 75.8% of goals created, that's absurd.

Tottenham struggled through last season because they lost a majority of their attack and had to rely on a large group of players gelling quickly if they were going to improve from the previous campaign.  That rarely happens, but Spurs still only finished a place lower and three points off the previous season.  Liverpool have the luxury of returning most of their players and all of their important ones except Suarez, of course.  As I have written prior, if Liverpool play better defence and make smarter decisions on the ball, they don't need to make up for the absence of Suarez, we could have won the league last season with 20 less goals, had we not played such poor defence. No matter what, finishing a place lower and three points off next season will be disappointing, though unlike Villas-Boas, I doubt it will cost Rodgers his job.

Ruben Pardo could be the next Gerrard

Ruben Pardo has also been called the next Xabi Alonso and rightfully so, the 21-year-ol Real Sociedad 'regista' is already a master passer, especially of the long ball.  Last season, he completed 155 of 215 long balls, a rate of 72.1%, those are Alonso (172/226, 76.1%) and Gerrard-esque (257/350, 73.4%) numbers.

Here's how Pardo and Gerrard compare from last season:

	Pardo	Gerrard
age	21	34
npg90	0.14	0.09
gcp90	0.53	0.81
ccp90	1.39	2.1
ap90	0.38	0.4
ccv	27.3	19.1
pass %	85.5	85.9
bp %	35.1	30.6
sacc %	45	51.7
shot %	15	27.1
TTI90	9.9	10.9
intp90	1.48	1.49
clrp90	0.39	2.83
drpp90	1.12	0.68
tp90	1.76	3
ts%	35.8	52.2
gap90	1.2	1.37
gsp90	2.01	2.67
gop90	0.81	1.3
tgop	0.18	1.32
gopd	0.63	-0.02

If you take away Gerrard's ten penalty goals, Pardo actually has a better goals created per 90, shot accuracy percentage, and shot percentage, but the Spaniard is a ways away from reaching Stevie-G's defensive prowess.  Pardo does have a lower turnover rate and probably the most impressive is his goals on pitch difference.  Where Gerrard is about even, Pardo makes his side 0.63 goals better per 90 minutes.

Pardo obviously has some work to do on defence, but the fact that he has such a great gopd, means he's got to be doing something right.  For a 21-year-old though, his attack stats are off the charts.  It is rare to find a young player with such composure on the ball, especially one who's pinpoint passing leads to a chance created value of 27.3.

If I were Rodgers, I would pay Sociedad his £24m release clause and loan him back if he's not ready to leave.  That may sound crazy, but there's no point in having him watch from the stands when he can develop in La Liga.

Karim 'Mercedes' Benzema is no Daniel 'La Ferrari' Sturridge

I have a mate who for years has been emphatically saying we should sign Benzema.  I just don't see it.  I don't think he's as good as advertised, but I've never crunched the numbers, so let's see how his stats from last season size-up with Sturridge.

	Benzema	Sturridge
npgp90	0.56	0.83
gcp90	0.85	1.1
ccp90	2.07	1.2
ap90	0.3	0.28
ccv	14.5	23.3
pass%	81.9	79.3
bp%	46.4	53.4
sacc%	45.1	42.4
shot%	16.7	21.2
TTI90	9.7	11
gap90	1.05	1.23
gsp90	2.75	2.7
gop90	1.7	1.47
tgop	1.74	1.32

Benzema's output isn't overwhelmingly impressive and definitely not worthy of £35-40m, which is his asking price.  Sturridge is the more prolific scorer and shows a higher football intelligence with his higher chance created value and shot percentage.  It's not that Benzema is wasteful in his pass and shot selection, he's just not as adept as our number 15.  Having superior pace than most forwards, Sturridge needs a set-up man with better pasing capabilities than Benzema, suprisingly we may already have that player in Rickie Lambert (18.6 ccv).

If we sign Markovic, I'm not sure we need any more attack-minded players.  We definitely don't need a player like Benzema, who does a lot of things well, but nothing in particular great.  The fact that he is surrounded by the caliber of player that he is at Madrid, his stats should at least show him to be more efficient.

Forget Benzema, forget trying to outscore our opponents every match, we need to go defensive.  One player we should try to buy is Real Sociedad's 21-year-old defensive midfielder Ruben Pardo.  He'll be the subject of my next post.

And then there's Marcelo...

I've been through nearly every left back out there that has been linked with Liverpool except Real Madrid's Marcelo.  I'm not sure how much they would want for him, but I would assume they wouldn't take less than £22m.  Personally, I think he's overrated, let's see if I'm right:

	Marcelo	Moreno	Rodriguez	Shaw
age	26	22*	21	19
app(subs)	24(4)	27(2)	34	35
mins	2177	2414	3060	2990
goals	1	3	5	0
assist	6	0	9	1
chances	44	19	78	33
npgp90	0.04	0.11	0.09	0
gcp90	0.29	0.11	0.41	0.03
ccp90	1.8	0.71	2.3	0.99
pass%	85.1	78.9	80.5	79
bp%	41.6	36.5	44.6	41.6
sacc%	25	17	55.3	41.7
shot%	4	13	13.2	0
tp90	2.9	1.9	3.1	2.2
tack %	57.9	39.6	57.7	58.7
intp90	1.4	2.7	1.9	1.1
clrp90	1.7	1.6	2.8	3.7
dribpp90	0.6	0.8	0.8	0.7
bsp90	0.08	0.3	0.4	0.1
adwp90	0.7	1	3.1	1.8
adwon%	41	50	56.2	56.5
TTI90	10.2	8.5	11.1	11.6

The Brazilian ties for last in overall ranking with Luke Shaw at 2.75, second is Moreno at 2.63, and coming out on top with a score of 1.75 is Ricardo Rodriguez.  Clearly we will have to over pay for Marcelo if his contribution is as equal to Shaw and the latter is 7 years his junior.

The only thing Marcelo does really well is pass the ball and he's a decent tackler, but he was either last or second to last in all other defensive categories.  He is especially poor when it comes to aerial duels, not only did he have the lowest per 90, but also the lowest success percentage.

Once again Rodriguez shows how he is the business, I will be shocked if he starts next season in a Wolfsburg shirt.  The only way Rodgers should even consider bringing in Marcelo is at discount of say £10m, but I doubt that'll happen.

Sterling or Morata: Who would you take?

StatsBomb, one of my favorite blogs, recently wrote an article claiming that Alvaro Morata is the 'best young prospect in Europe.'  I have to respectfully disagree though, Raheem Sterling is much better and younger.  Here are stats from last season for Sterling and the last two combined for Morata:

	Morata	Sterling
age	21	19
app (sub)	8(27)	24(9)
mins	994	2220
goals	10	9
assists	1	5
chances	18	51
npg90	1	0.36
gcp90	1	0.57
ccp90	1.64	2.06
pass %	66.5	81.7
bp %	48.1	46.8
sacc %	58.8	48.9
shot %	15.7	20
take on %	42.5	64.3
TTI90	18.4	12.1

They play different positions, Morata up front and Sterling on the wing, so you would expect Morata to have a higher non-penalty goal and goal created per 90.  Other than goal scoring and shot accuracy, Sterling is better in every other category.  

He creates more chances per 90, has a significantly better passing rate with a lower back pass percentage, is much more efficient at taking on defenders, and turns over the ball considerably less.  Shot selection is a bit mixed though as Morata has more on target, but Sterling puts a higher percentage in the back of the net.

One stat that I didn't include was aerial duels, for a few reasons.  First, Alvaro Morata is 6'3" and Sterling 5'6".  Second, positioning, Morata plays up front in the middle and obviously gets more crosses fed to him.  Third, these numbers are reflected in shot and passing stats.  Also, it would be one thing if Morata had scored a ton of header goals, but he has one in the last two seasons, and no one I know keeps track of key headers, chances created via header, header pass percentage, nor header shot percentage.  I have a feeling if someone did track the latter, neither Morata nor Sterling would have an impressive rate.

The bottom line is Sterling is the better chance creator.  He can create his own shot for himself and others, where Morata seems to rely on players like Sterling for service.  Morata is a one-toucher, a good one, but still if he doesn't shoot or pass with his first touch, there's a high probability that he's going to lose possession. Of course, if you already have a Sterling, adding a Morata wouldn't be a bad idea.

My 2007 World's Best XI

I'm pretty bored, so I thought I'd throw my irrelevant two cents into the mix. Here's who I think were the world's best XI in 2007. Feel free to flog me, I know nothing, of course.

GK - Petr Čech
Casillas, Reina, and Buffon are all incredible, but some of the saves Čech makes are just plain silly. Rarely does a side score against him without a phenomenal effort.

LB - Gianluca Zambrotta
Heinze, Thuram, and Lahm are all tremendous as well, but Zambrotta is probably the most consistent.

CB - John Terry
CB - Fabio Cannavaro
Just too many good ones, and really, it comes down to personal preference. Carra would no doubt be in the squad. I don't really want to get into it, but these are the two I would trust most if I were managing the world's best XI.

RB - Steve Finnan
Yeah, I know I'll get plenty of flack for this one, but Finney was the second best overall defensive player in the Premiership last season according to Actim and his qualities are undeniable. Even at 31, he's arguably the best right wing-back in the world. Dani Alves and even Arbeloa deserve recognition as well.

LM/LW - Lionel Messi
This isn't even debatable. Not even Ronaldinho takes his spot.

CM/DM - Javier Mascherano
Simply the best defensive midfielder in the world. Dietmar Hamann is going to be hard to leave out of the squad though.

CM - Steven Gerrard
If I have to defend this pick, you're a victim of the anti-English press or your own inability to know world-class when you see it.

RM/RW - Kaká
You can pretty much start him anywhere at midfield or forward with this side. With Gerrard and Mascherano there to provide cover, he, like Messi, are just additional forwards.

FW - Fernando Torres
FW - Didier Drogba
As with CB, there's just so much quality at that spot that it comes down to personal preference.

Squad (23 total):
Pepe Reina
Jamie Carragher
Cristiano Ronaldo
David Villa
Philipp Lahm
Andrea Pirlo
Patrice Evra
Franck Ribéry
Carles Puyol
Ronaldinho
Dani Alves
Deco

I think I'm pretty fair in my assessment overall. Like I said, I think the Finnan pick is a bit controversial, as even a lot of Liverpool fans don't seem to realize his consistency and contributions though he's clearly a tremendous player. Alves is not as good as Finney defensive-wise, but he is superior in the pace and attacking aspects.

I really hate putting Pirlo on just the squad. He's probably my favorite Italian player and for someone who loathes the Italian game, he'll always be one of my favorite players of all-time. Gattuso is nothing compared to Mascherano, and I'm not having a go with that, I'm just preaching the truth.

I don't feel as if I have to defend putting Carra on the squad, but I will. First of all, go ask the Milan and Chelsea players how good he is, they'll tell ya. Second, he's also pretty versatile having played fullback for Liverpool in his earlier years, and he can even play defensive midfield, as he has with England.

I'm pretty confident that this side could go undefeated and win any league at the moment and the Champions League and domestic cup as well. There's just very little fault. They may not be as defensive-minded as even I would like, but a clean sheet against a side of this caliber would be an unbelievable effort.