Sunday, June 22, 2014

Sterling or Morata: Who would you take?

StatsBomb, one of my favorite blogs, recently wrote an article claiming that Alvaro Morata is the 'best young prospect in Europe.'  I have to respectfully disagree though, Raheem Sterling is much better and younger.  Here are stats from last season for Sterling and the last two combined for Morata:

MorataSterling
age2119
app (sub)8(27)24(9)
mins9942220
goals109
assists15
chances1851
npg9010.36
gcp9010.57
ccp901.642.06
pass %66.581.7
bp %48.146.8
sacc %58.848.9
shot %15.720
take on %42.564.3
TTI9018.412.1

They play different positions, Morata up front and Sterling on the wing, so you would expect Morata to have a higher non-penalty goal and goal created per 90.  Other than goal scoring and shot accuracy, Sterling is better in every other category.  

He creates more chances per 90, has a significantly better passing rate with a lower back pass percentage, is much more efficient at taking on defenders, and turns over the ball considerably less.  Shot selection is a bit mixed though as Morata has more on target, but Sterling puts a higher percentage in the back of the net.

One stat that I didn't include was aerial duels, for a few reasons.  First, Alvaro Morata is 6'3" and Sterling 5'6".  Second, positioning, Morata plays up front in the middle and obviously gets more crosses fed to him.  Third, these numbers are reflected in shot and passing stats.  Also, it would be one thing if Morata had scored a ton of header goals, but he has one in the last two seasons, and no one I know keeps track of key headers, chances created via header, header pass percentage, nor header shot percentage.  I have a feeling if someone did track the latter, neither Morata nor Sterling would have an impressive rate.

The bottom line is Sterling is the better chance creator.  He can create his own shot for himself and others, where Morata seems to rely on players like Sterling for service.  Morata is a one-toucher, a good one, but still if he doesn't shoot or pass with his first touch, there's a high probability that he's going to lose possession. Of course, if you already have a Sterling, adding a Morata wouldn't be a bad idea.

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