Take note United, Moreno transfer is how it's done

If reports are true and we have captured 22-year-old left back Alberto Moreno from Sevilla for £12m, Ian Ayre has outdone himself because that's a solid piece of business.  The original asking price was €20m or £15.9m, but months of negotiating dwindled it down, though I am sure there is some fine print of add-ons and possible transfer fee reductions of Iago Aspas if they choose to keep him.  Instead of being like United and just breaking out the check book, compromise appeared to have actually taken place, and we got a player at a fair price, though he could become a 'steal' down the road.

On top of his defensive abilities, Moreno has the dribbling and passing skills to make a tremendous impact on attack as well.  It's his acumen, his ability to discern and anticipate his opponent's next move that is most impressive and helps him shut'em down. His pace and vigor will benefit him on both sides of the pitch and are definitely Premier league quality.

The stats from his two seasons at Sevilla show different sides of his skill spectrum.  In his first season he excelled on defence and the second he improved his attacking numbers though seemingly at the cost of his defensive contribution:

yr	gc90	cc90	ps%	bp%	tti90	gopd	tkl90	tkl%	int90	clr90	adw90	adw%
13-14	0.11	0.71	0.789	0.365	8.62	-0.15	1.94	.396	2.72	1.64	1.94	0.500
12-13	0.08	0.67	0.781	0.45	10	0.73	2.42	.378	3.83	3.50	1.92	0.478

He improved in nearly every attacking category, but slagged off a little on defense.  His improvement in backpass percentage and true turnover index per 90 minutes was quite impressive.  The drop in tackles, interceptions, and clearances per 90 minutes are disappointing and hopefully just a one year slump.  The drastic decline in his goals-on-pitch is alarming, hopefully going from a very impressive 0.73 to a -0.15 is just a glitch and he becomes a positive influence once again.

If he can get back to his first season numbers in the first third and continue his improvement in the opponent's, he'll be well-worth his reasonable price tag.  At least we didn't pay £30m for him, Shaw will have to put up at least twice the numbers of Moreno to prove he's worth that much.

Three 'lesser known' strikers who could help us win the Prem

Aritz Aduriz
Yes, Aduriz is 33 and has never played out of Spain, but I never claimed to be 'realistic' about these possible signings, they are 'wishful thinking' at best.  He is coming off a career year though, in fact, three of the last four seasons have been the best for the Bilbao striker.  His 16 goals and 8 assists last season means he created nearly a goal every 90 minutes and his chance created value of 0.258 is simply mind-bottling.

He does have a few negatives though, first and foremost he posted a ridiculously bad 61.5% pass success percentage last season.  It was a career low and most players usually improve their passing stats as they get older.  He also lack pace which should be no surprise considering his age, but we have Sturridge and Sterling so we don't necessarily need more speed.

Dario Cvitanich
Another Argentine striker, Cvitanich had a very impressive season the year before last with 19 goals and 2 assists in just 29 matches, giving him a goal created per 90 of 0.81 or 4 goals every 5 matches.  The Nice striker 'fell off the pace' last year only netting 8 times in 31 appearances, but may have regained his form with a brace today in the opening Ligue 1 match for Nice against Toulouse.  Cvitanich is a great finisher, especially outside of the box.  Here's a taste of what he could offer:

Stefan Kießling

Kießling is probably the best esoteric striker in Germany.  How can a player who has scored 84 goals and posted a 0.75 goals created per 90 min average in the past five seasons in the Bundesliga be so uncoveted?  He may only be 1.91 m (6'3"), but it's as if he's the Peter Crouch of German football.  His inconsistency may be one reason, the Lichtenfels native has been up and down his whole career, for example posting 25, 7, 16, 25, and 15 goals the past five seasons.  His passing is subpar as well with a career percentage of 69.1%.

The most impressive thing about Kießling is his magic skills, how he got this goal to be counted is still a revelation:

Is this free 'World Class' striker the solution?

It's getting to the point that almost any signing that can contribute more than Aspas did last season will have to do, but what if there were a proven, experienced striker still out there and he wouldn't cost Liverpool a dime?  Well, there is, and his name is Samuel Eto'o.

For those who think that the Cameroonian legend is past it, look no further than his production last season for Chelsea.  He may be 33, but he's still got the ability to post respectable numbers.  Here's his output from last season:

npg90	ap90	gc90	cc90	pass%	sacc%	shot%	tti90	gopd
0.62	0.14	0.76	1.53	0.761	0.441	0.153	11.3	0.02

He basically created three goals every four matches, not too bad for an 'old man', and he turned over the ball less than Sterling or Suarez.

Apparently he is currently in talks with Ajax, which is interesting because he allegedly was asking too high of wages from interested clubs.  Ajax is not going to pay him an exorbitant salary and LFC could easily pay him more.

He would obviously just be around for a season, which may not appeal to him, but he's only needed to 'buy time' until Origi returns or another long term option is found.  I really don't see what we have to lose, if he ends up a failure, oh well, we got him on a free, if he makes a splash, he was a 'genius buy'.  Even if he repeats his output from last season, 9 goals and 2 assists in about fourteen-and-a-half matches worth of minutes, it'll be well worth sigining him up.

Is Gonzalo Higuaín worth more than Suárez?

We all know Ronaldo and Messi are the cream of the European football crop, but number three is up for grabs with Luis Suárez and Gonzalo Higuaín among the top candidates.  Most people believe the Uruguayan is the clear cut choice, but a closer look at their performance data may lead to a change of mind.

The fact is, Higuaín is the superior player when it comes to the numbers.  The Argentine is considered to be more of a 'poacher' while most believe Suárez is the more complete player, but the stats tell a different story.  Both players have benefited by playing most of their careers at 'big' clubs.  Ajax may not seem like as 'big' a club as it was 20 years ago, but it still attracts some of the best young talent in the world and was absolutely loaded the years El Conejo Loco played there.  His teammates included Klaas-Jan Huntelaar, Jan Vertonghen, Urby Emanuelson, Thomas Vermaelen, Dennis Rommedahl, Maarten Stekelenburg, and Gregory van der Wiel among others.

Also, it could be argued that Suarez prospered from playing in a lesser league where his 'world class' talents allowed him to dominant his 'lesser' opponents while Higuain had to deal with the superior defences of La Liga.  Not to mention that the Eredivisie is an 'attacker's paradise' where players tend to rack up more impressive offensive stats than any other league in Europe.

Here are their accumulative stats since the 2006-07 seasons:

	npg90	ap90	gc90	cc90	ccv	pass%	sacc%	shot%	TTI90	gopd
Higuaín	0.73	0.31	1.09	1.38	0.23	0.808	0.518	0.449	12.27	0.11
Suárez	0.62	0.17	0.87	2.50	0.09	0.753	0.407	0.296	17.37	0.09

Higuaín takes almost every stat except chances created, but his chance created value is far superior.  In fact, one out of every four of his chances finds the back of the net while only one out of eleven for Suarez result in a goal.  That is one of the best ccvs I have ever seen and really sums up what Higuain is, efficient.  It's not that Suarez lacks in precision, but he fails in comparison to his Argentine counterpart.

The one thing Suarez does better, though is hard to quantify, is create chances for himself.  Though it doesn't really show self-created chances, the former Liverpool man has a successful dribble rate of 2.88 per 90 at 38% while the Napoli striker posts a 1.40 sdr90 at 47%.  Once again, Higuain is more efficient, though only completes half as many take-ons per ninety minutes.

To answer the question of this post though, no, I don't think Higuain is worth more than Suarez.  Numbers aren't everything and if you put the latter on the worst team in any league, I firmly believe he would make a bigger impact than the former.  Suarez doesn't need highly-skilled teammates to make a difference, but they obviously help.  Higuain is more efficient and can make a good team great, but I highly doubt he would be able to lead a team like Stoke to a Champions League spot.  He would make Liverpool more of a contender though, but £80m?  Messi is the only player worthy of that amount, but if we could somehow get Napoli to agree to half that, Rodgers would be crazy not to break the bank for him.

Striker solution? This 'once-linked', former Barça prospect, could be a quality buy

Despite being 'pre-season' and meaningless, last night's match exposed our need for another striker.  Waiting for the magical boots to turn on and make Lambert the answer just won't hack it.  The problem is there isn't much else out there, certainly nothing of Suarez' class.  We may have to 'settle' for a forward with 'potential' and most likely risk funds to do so.  One of these players is Celta Vigo's Nolito, who we've been linked to in years past.

The 27-year-old forward/winger first came to prominence playing for Segunda División B side, Écija Balompié.  His performances helped lead Écija to the league title, catching the eye of Barcelona B scouts, where he would transfer to in July 2008.  There he scored 29 goals in 108 appearances, helping them get promoted to the Segundo División for the first time this century.

Seeing the pitch just three times for the senior side, he turned down a contract offer in summer 2011 and was transferred to Benfica for £2.2m.  His first year with the Portuguese club was somewhat successful, scoring 15 goals in all competitions and helping the club win the Taça de Liga.  He also scored in his first five consecutive league matches, tying Eusébio's record for goals by a debut player in Primeira Liga.

Unfortunately the honeymoon ended and Nolito found himself as fourth choice forward at the start of 2012-13 season.  After only 6 appearances and 188 minutes the first half of the year, he was loaned to Granada CF in the January transfer window.  At the Andalusian club, he created lots of chances, but only managed one assist to go with his 3 goals, but garnered enough interest to earn a transfer to Celta Vigo for £2.2m.

His stats for the La Liga club last season are not mind-blowing, but somewhat impressive considering it was his first season there and he wasn't exactly surrounded by world class talent:

npg90	gc90	cc90	sacc%	shot%	TTI90	gopd
0.48	0.63	1.94	41.18%	14.12%	11.5	0.29

Nolito seems to set up lots of chances for his teammates no matter where he plays, just imagine what he could do with the likes of Sturridge, Sterling, and Coutinho around him.  He also doesn't waste shot opportunities nor turnover the ball at a ridiculous rate, hence his 11.5 TTI90.  The most impressive stat though is his goals on pitch difference 90 of 0.29, when he wasn't on the pitch, Celta Vigo was destined to lose with a team gopd of -0.13.

The soon-to-be 28-year-old Spaniard is not just a poacher, but can contribute in many ways.  Other than setting others up, he is also a decent tackler, averaging 2.34 successful tackles per 90 minutes at a 48.4% rate.  He's valued at around £5m, which if we could get him for anything close, would be steal.  Recently, he said if Barcelona came calling, he would leave, I wonder if that applies to other 'big' clubs. 

Shameful Prem erases all Suarez history

The pathetic Premier League thinks they can re-write history.  I didn't realize they did this until I was perusing around their site and was looking for Suarez on the goal-scoring table (click on pics to enlarge),...

..the leading assists table,...

...and apparently didn't play for Liverpool last season....

...nor the season before.

You also get nothing when you search.

What's the point?  Are football fans in general going to just forget Suarez played in the Prem?

Javi Manquillo would be a project not a resolution

Javier Manquillo doesn't show much promise as a full back, at least not going forward.  In his few appearances in La Liga and Europe the last two seasons, The 20-year-old Atletico Madrid defender has shown to be a less-than mediocre passer, especially dreadful at specialization, and has a hard time holding on to the ball.  His career passing success average is 75.8%, nearly four points lower than the 79.6% of players in all competitions combined.  He has connected on just 1 of 24 career cross attempts, has never even attempted a throughball, and has a 30% conversion rate for long balls.  Glen Johnson, coming off a poor year by most accounts, still posted better numbers, succeeding on 5 of 51 crosses, 54.2% long balls, and was 1 for 3 on throughballs.

Manquillo can defend though.  Here are his career defence stats from Spain and Europe compared to Johnson's and Flanagan's from last season:

player	t90	tk%	int90	clr90	drby90	bs90
Manquillo	3.30	60.9	2.44	3.06	0.12	0.49
Johnson	2.29	55.9	1.79	2.54	0.82	0.29
Flanagan	3.8	45.7	1.9	3.6	1.9	0.2

Manquillo posted better all-round numbers than both of them, his tackle rate, dribble-busting ability, and shot-blocking capability are particularly outstanding.  He is also excellent in the air.  His career aerial duels success percentage is 78.9%, that's better than any LFC player last season as Skrtel was best at 70.1%.  These attributes are better-suited for a centre back, not a right back.  So if Rodgers was interested in the Spaniard to change his position, it's actually not a bad idea, but it seems far-fetched.  We don't need projects, we need immediate contributors and even spending £6m for Manquillo doesn't make much sense.

Which Real Madrid young gun would you prefer?

Isco
Isco's strength is passing, whether it be long crosses, long balls, through balls, or creating chances, he is a master.  He's also pretty accurate at shooting.  His biggest fault is that his teammates are really poor shots or he puts them in impossible-to-score positions, which is why is chance created value is mediocre. Here are his stats from last season pertaining to those attributes:

ccv	cc90	pass%	bp%	cr%	lb%	tb%	sacc%	shot%
8.5	3.21	88.1	42	32.2	81.8	53.3	36.4	18.2

Illarramendi
Illarramendi is a solid defensive midfielder who is also a great passer.  He is especially deadly accurate on long balls, completing 97 of 108 last season.  His stats from last season are pretty good all around, showing no signs of a significant weakness.

gc90	cc90	pass%	bp%	lb%	tp90	t%	intp90
0.19	1.35	88.9	40.1	89.8	4.19	42.1	2.45

Jesé
If Jesé can continue his torrid goal-creating pace of last season with hopefully a lot more pitch time, he'll easily become the next megastar at Real.  His influence on his club is beyond just numbers though, in the 18 matches he featured last season, Real earned 47 pts, in the 20 he did not, they only managed 40.  Had he not torn his anterior cruciate ligament, they might have won the league as well.  His stats from last year are just plain ridiculous:

gc90	cc90	ccv	pass%	bp%	sacc%	shot%	TTI90	gopd
1.34	1.94	30.7	83.2	52.4	52.4	23.8	10.9	1.24

A 30.7 chance created value and a 1.24 goals on pitch difference? Mental.

Which Real Madrid young gun would you prefer?
	Isco
	Illarramendi
	Jesé
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Will Suarez succeed at Barca?

Will Suarez succeed at Barca?
	Yes, he is a footballing genius.
	Yes, Messi and Neymar will play nice and share the ball.
	No, Messi and Neymar will play White Swan and Black Swan, there's no room for a third.
	No, the Liverpool curse will strike again.
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I don't know about 'succeed' in so much as he will progress as a footballer.  I think he'll do well, but I don't think he'll repeat last season, possibly ever again, unless he goes to MLS before he gets too old.  For Suarez to improve, I just think he needs to be the primary guy the ball goes through in the last third, unfortunately at Barca, that's not going to happen.  Buena Suerte to him otherwise, but I will never cheer for Barca unless they are playing United.

Suso is admirable, but is he capable?

When Suso came into the first team in 2012, he impressed with his passing and his constant push to go forward with the ball.  He brought a sense of excitement and the feeling that something good was about to happen every time he touched the ball.  In reality though, very little of that 'vivacity' was productive.  In 14 appearances and 601 minutes, he failed to contribute either a goal or assist, and his minutes started to diminish.

Last summer he requested a loan, so he could garner more playing time and ended up at Almeria in La Liga. Here are his stats from that campaign:

npgp90	gcp90	ccp90	ap90	ccv	tccv
0.12	0.4	1.31	0.28	21.2	9.2
pass%	bp%	sacc%	shot%	TTI90	tTTI90
72.2	37.4	32.8	4.7	12.4	14.2
crp90	cr%	lbp90	lb%	tbp90	tb%
1.04	20.2	2.31	67.4	0.08	33.3
gap90	gsp90	gop90	tgop	gopd
1.83	1.2	-0.63	-0.74	0.09

His poor passing is very surprising and though he did play for a 17th place, near-relegated club, he was still below the team average of 73.6%.  In 2012-13, his passing success percentage for Liverpool in all campaigns was 84.9%, so I'm not sure what happened there.  Maybe his style of play just doesn't translate well in Spain or maybe he was trying to force play too much, his back pass percentage for LFC that season was 50.5%, significantly higher than his 37.4% in La Liga.  The other negative is his 12.4 TTI90, though it was better than his teammate average of 14.2.

There are positives though.  His chance created value of 21.2% is good in itself, but decidedly better than his club average of 9.2%.  The aforementioned back pass percentage, long balls per 90, long ball success percentage, and goals on pitch difference are all promising.  In fact, for such a poor side, it's good to see that he made some difference even if it's only +3.42 goals a season.

Suso is now back and wants to fight for a spot.  I'm all for it as long as he captures his passing form from the season before.  It would be great to have another option at attacking midfielder without having to spend any of that Suarez war chest. 

Toby Alderweireld: A good signing but only at the right price

According to reports, the player in which we are latest linked is Atletico Madrid and Belgium defender, Toby Alderweireld.  The 25-year-old former Ajax player has become frustrated with his lack of playing time at Atletico and is looking to go elsewhere, despite only joining the La Liga champions last summer.  His preferred position is centre back, but has also provided cover at right back for club and country.  Here's how he sizes up statistically against Sakho, Skrtel, Agger, and Old Man Toure:

	Alderweireld	Sakho	Skrtel	Agger	Toure
age	25	24	29	29	old
app(subs)	17(3)	18(1)	36	16(4)	15(5)
mins	1576	1478	3221	1421	1443
goals	1	1	7	2	0
assist	0	0	1	1	2
chances	0	2	7	2	7
npgp90	0.06	0.06	0.2	0.13	0
gcp90	0.06	0.06	0.22	0.19	0.13
ccp90	0	0.12	0.2	0.13	0.44
pass%	81.6	92.5	90.8	89.1	86.4
bp%	24.9	22.6	23.7	18.7	20.5
sacc%	50	10	53.3	42.8	14.3
shot%	12.5	10	46.7	28.6	0
tp90	2.5	1.6	1.4	1.7	2.1
tack %	58.5	71.4	50	55.6	65.1
intp90	1.4	1.6	1.7	1.3	0.9
clrp90	6.1	8.3	11.5	7.2	9.2
dribpp90	0.4	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.4
bsp90	0.6	0.4	1.1	0.5	0.8
adwp90	1.7	2.9	3.6	2.8	2.7
adwon%	75	56	70.1	65.2	50.6
TTI90	8.5	5.6	5.2	5	5.8
avg rank	3.44	3.06	2	2.69	3.25

His overall ranking of 3.44 is last among the group, in fact, statistically the only thing that could even be deemed 'impressive' is his aerial duels won percentage. He is comparable in many fields, but do we really want to waste our time with a seemingly average player?  It's hard to use the 'potential argument' for a 25-year-old, that's the United way, but he does impress in this video, especially with his passing:

Alderweireld is valued at around £9m, but that's just too high.  Atletico bought him for £6.16m and being that they appear not to care whether he stays or not, maybe they'll take £7m or £7.5m.  We can throw in Aspas to carry the ball bags as well.  If we can get him for that, I'd say go for it, then at the very least  we'll have coverage at right back.