Do desperate times call for Christian Benteke?

Last summer, Christian Benteke was one of the most sought after strikers in the Prem.  Chelsea and Tottenham both made approaches to Villa for his services, but apparently were turned away by a ridiculous £25m transfer fee.  Turns out the London clubs played it smart as the Belgian striker endured a injury-riddled sophomore slump in the Prem.  Injuries to his hip and knee as well as a ruptured Achilles tendon limited his pitch time to just 24 starts and 2 substitutes.  He also further exposed his biggest weaknesses, passing and ball control.

Last season and the season before, Benteke posted true turnover index 90s of 22.2 and 20.7, primarily due to poor passing.  Those are some of, if not the, worst numbers I have ever seen.  The fact that he declined in his second season from his first is even more alarming.  His passing is even less impressive, going from a dismal 64.89% is inaugural season to an abysmal 60.73% last year.  At least he isn't passing backwards for percentage sake, posting 46.7% two seasons ago and an improved 45.5% in his second season.  Maybe he should do a little more back-passing to save from turning over the ball.

He did make some positive contributions though.  For a player who isn't a great passer, he does create chances, nearly two every 90 minutes last season and 1.69 the previous.  His non-penalty goal scoring rate of 0.44 every 90 minutes and 0.64 goal created per 90 the last two seasons combined aren't unimpressive either.  Probably the oddest stat is his long balls per 90 of 1.19 at a 72.4% success rate, for a forward-lying player he's pretty good at finding others at far lengths.

So should Benteke even be considered an option? Well, the negatives are apparent, though I think his passing would improve on a more talented side and one that plays a less negative-style of football.  The turnovers may have something to do with him being 23-years-old, but the fact he showed no improvement from first to second season is worrisome.  He is also coming off a very serious injury, but apparently his recovery is going well. I seem to making excuses to sign him, so I'll stop there.  He should have to be a bargain basement deal or even a free to be considered at any point, or we really are that desperate.

Is Romelu Lukaku worth £26m?

Recent rumours have LFC linked to Chelsea striker, Romelu Lukaku.  The 21-year-old Belgian has spent the last two seasons out on loan, first at West Brom and last season at Everton. Let's look at his output from those campaigns:

Everton 2013-14

npgp90	gcp90	ccp90	ap90	ccv
0.53	0.74	1.13	0.21	18.8
pass%	bp%	sacc%	shot%	TTI90
66.5	53.3	45.9	15.3	11.1
gap90	gsp90	gop90	tgop	gopd90
1.06	1.9	0.84	0.58	0.26

West Brom 2012-13

npgp90	gcp90	ccp90	ap90	ccv
0.67	0.94	1.61	0.18	11.1
pass%	bp%	sacc%	shot%	TTI90
72.1	57.6	48.5	17.5	15
gap90	gsp90	gop90	tgop	gopd90
1.8	1.7	-0.1	-0.1	0

Everton finished 5th last season, while WBA ended up 8th in 2012-13, though the difference between 7th, where Liverpool placed that year, was 12 pts and a 32 goal difference, the second largest point gap next to 19th and 20th, and the largest goal difference by much distance.  Lukaku scored 32.1% of goals and was responsible for 39.6% of goals scored for West Brom, while he had part in 24.6% and 34.4% respectively for Everton last season.

The improvement in his chance created value and turnover rate are probably signs of both growth and being surrounded by more capable teammates, which, if he came to Liverpool, would be the case once again.  His passing rate is a bit worrisome though, but in the few matches he has played for Chelsea, his percentage was 81.2%, which is significantly better.  Why it decreased from WBA to Everton could also be due to the fact that he passed it backward less.

Is he worth £26m though? Well, given his age, physical capabilities, and skills, absolutely.  In fact, that could wind up being a bargain.  I don't think he'll ever be a world class talent, but I can see him scoring 20-25 goals for a lot of seasons to come.  If I were Mourinho, I'd send Torres packing and start playing Lukaku, but you never know with the 'Special One'.

Toby Alderweireld: A good signing but only at the right price

According to reports, the player in which we are latest linked is Atletico Madrid and Belgium defender, Toby Alderweireld.  The 25-year-old former Ajax player has become frustrated with his lack of playing time at Atletico and is looking to go elsewhere, despite only joining the La Liga champions last summer.  His preferred position is centre back, but has also provided cover at right back for club and country.  Here's how he sizes up statistically against Sakho, Skrtel, Agger, and Old Man Toure:

	Alderweireld	Sakho	Skrtel	Agger	Toure
age	25	24	29	29	old
app(subs)	17(3)	18(1)	36	16(4)	15(5)
mins	1576	1478	3221	1421	1443
goals	1	1	7	2	0
assist	0	0	1	1	2
chances	0	2	7	2	7
npgp90	0.06	0.06	0.2	0.13	0
gcp90	0.06	0.06	0.22	0.19	0.13
ccp90	0	0.12	0.2	0.13	0.44
pass%	81.6	92.5	90.8	89.1	86.4
bp%	24.9	22.6	23.7	18.7	20.5
sacc%	50	10	53.3	42.8	14.3
shot%	12.5	10	46.7	28.6	0
tp90	2.5	1.6	1.4	1.7	2.1
tack %	58.5	71.4	50	55.6	65.1
intp90	1.4	1.6	1.7	1.3	0.9
clrp90	6.1	8.3	11.5	7.2	9.2
dribpp90	0.4	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.4
bsp90	0.6	0.4	1.1	0.5	0.8
adwp90	1.7	2.9	3.6	2.8	2.7
adwon%	75	56	70.1	65.2	50.6
TTI90	8.5	5.6	5.2	5	5.8
avg rank	3.44	3.06	2	2.69	3.25

His overall ranking of 3.44 is last among the group, in fact, statistically the only thing that could even be deemed 'impressive' is his aerial duels won percentage. He is comparable in many fields, but do we really want to waste our time with a seemingly average player?  It's hard to use the 'potential argument' for a 25-year-old, that's the United way, but he does impress in this video, especially with his passing:

Alderweireld is valued at around £9m, but that's just too high.  Atletico bought him for £6.16m and being that they appear not to care whether he stays or not, maybe they'll take £7m or £7.5m.  We can throw in Aspas to carry the ball bags as well.  If we can get him for that, I'd say go for it, then at the very least  we'll have coverage at right back.

Signing Divock Origi is a waste of everyone's time

There are recent reports that we may be after 19-year-old Belgian and World Cup darling, Divock Origi, but I highly doubt it.  There is absolutely no reason to add him to the squad and no logic for him to join.  I'm not saying he isn't good enough, but why sign a 19-year-old who will be our fourth striker (with or without Suarez, we will sign a top replacement if needs be). He will get little playing time, which could hamper his development, and he'll probably be unhappy spending time on the reserves or loaned out to other sides.  It makes no sense to either party.

Furthermore, there's nothing in his statistical output that separates him from what we already have at the club.  Here are his numbers from last season for Lille along with last season's production of fellow 19-year-old Sterling and the player Origi should long to emulate, Daniel Sturridge:

	Origi	Sterling	Sturridge
age	19	19	24
app (sub)	12(18)	24(9)	26(3)
mins	1286	2220	2267
goals	5	9	21
assists	0	5	7
chances	18	51	29
npg90	0.35	0.36	0.83
gcp90	0.35	0.57	1.1
ccp90	1.3	2.06	1.2
pass %	79.1	81.7	79.3
bp %	54.2	46.8	53.4
sacc %	54.2	48.9	42.4
shot %	20.8	20	21.2
TTI90	12.2	12.1	11

First and foremost, Origi primarily starts up front and covers the left side of the pitch.  Overall his numbers are eerily similar to Sterling with two exceptions, chances created and back pass percentage.  Sterling creates nearly a chance more per 90 and passes towards his own goal much less.  

The only thing separating him and Sturridge is goal-scoring rate, which is kind of important when you're a forward.  Their shooting rate is similar, though Origi has the superior shooting accuracy percentage, which tells me he tends to take bad shots and/or fails to challenge the keeper most of the time.

The bottom line is Origi is not what we need and he's not dynamic enough to justify bringing him in for what will probably be a speculative price.  Let him prove himself elsewhere for 4-5 seasons and when Sturridge starts to go in decline then try to sign him.  Right now he's just the victim of the World Cup hype train.