Expect a big match from Balotelli versus Villa

Mario Balotelli took a little warming his first go-around in the Prem.  In fact, his first season at City was somewhat forgettable.  The first time he saw the pitch was a 3-0 loss to Arsenal at the Etihad.  He was a surprise sub, expected to be out due to injury, but he came on for the then 10-man City side in the 72nd minute for a fruitless effort to break his duck.  They were already down 2-0 and to make matters even more embarrassing, Nicklas Bendtner added a third.

His first full debut was a week later at the Molineaux.  City were more pretenders than contenders at the time and it showed.  They had yet to add some missing pieces, most notably Samir Nasri, and Balotelli actually started on the left behind Adebayor.  It was a dreadful performance for the Italian who had 5 shots, though none on-goal, was 15 of 21 passing (71.4%) and caused 17 turnovers. His only positives were 2 chances created and 2 successful tackles, as a red-faced City fell 2-1.

In his third match he finally scored, twice in fact, at the Hawthorns with both goals less than 7 minutes apart.  He then managed a straight red after 'kicking-out' while entangled with Youssuf Mulumbu.  He wouldn't score again until a hat-trick against Aston Villa at the end of December 2010, which included two pens.  He would end that season with only 6 goals, 0 assists, and 8 chances created in 17 appearances.

Flash forward to February 3, 2013.  Balotelli had made the switch to AC Milan and makes his debut at the San Siro versus Udinese.  He managed a brace, the first an ugly left-footed straggler in the box and the other a pen from a gratuitous call earned by an near-paraplegic Sharaaway.  He would go on to score in 8 of the final 10 matches played by Milan that season for a total of 12 goals in 13 matches.

So what should we expect?  A brace in his next match? Well, it's certainly probable considering it will be his first at Anfield and the opponent will be Villa, but he should be a factor in the least.  I fully expect he and Sturridge (if fit) to get at least one each.  This is the match that we need to send a message to the rest of the league and that message should be, 'We are contenders and we aren't going anywhere.'

Coutinho least efficient for Liverpool, Anichebe worst in the league

Coutinho, our wee Brazilian wizard, may have just been called up by Brazil, but it's doubtfully due to his performance versus Southampton on Sunday.  He posted the worst outfield player passing rate of 75.7% and turned the ball over 17 times.  His stats combined gave him an efficiency in possession rating of 0.569 and efficiency over team score of -0.159.  There's no doubt he'll improve, he's just got to realize this isn't pre-season anymore.

Though his numbers weren't good, at least our Radagast was no where near the bottom of the efficiency tables in the Prem.  Here are the ten worst in per and eot:

Player efficiency rating

V. Anichebe	0.303
C. Wickham	0.350
C. Cole	0.367
Kieran Tripper	0.397
A. Knockaert	0.400
M. Biram Diouf	0.407
J. Puncheon	0.407
S. Pocognoli	0.418
Y. Bolasie	0.421
F. Campbell	0.423

Efficiency over team

V. Anichebe	-0.351
C. Cole	-0.338
M. Biram Diouf	-0.314
Y. Sanogo	-0.311
C. Wickham	-0.299
P. Bardsley	-0.297
A. Knockaert	-0.267
S. Pocognoli	-0.235
D. Tadic	-0.230
C. Austin	-0.207

Former Everton and current West Brom forward Victor Anichebe tops a list of a lot of other medicore front-liners to take the Golden Rubbish Bin.  Anichebe played the full 90, but only managed 33 touches and 8 completed passes at a 44.4% completion rate.  Meanwhile his partner scored a brace.

Other questions these tables bring up are how long will Sunderland wait for Wickham to find his form?  How long will Sanogo have to prove himself at Arsenal?  And is Tadic really that poor?  He didn't seem so, but the stats say different.

Should Andre Wisdom be loaned to West Brom?

Andre Wisdom, like Suso, is a well-liked player that I think all Liverpool fans want to pan out, play the next 10 or so years in a LFC shirt, and retire a legend.  He's a beast and even though he may not have the best judgement behind the wheel, on the pitch he's already a coveted commodity.  His versatility, athletic ability, and skill make the sky the limit for the 21-year-old Leeds native. His loan to Derby last season did nothing but prove how promising a prospect he is, here are his stats from that time:

npgp90	gcp90	ccp90	ap90	ccv
0	0.09	0.64	0.09	14.3
pass%	bp%	sacc%	shot%	TTI90
82.9	36.5	23.1	0	10.4
gap90	gsp90	gop90	tgop	gopd
1.04	1.98	0.94	0.7	0.24
tp90	tack%	intp90	clrp90
1.56	54.5	0.73	3.35
dribpp90	bsp90	adwp90	adw%
0.34	0.52	1.04	60.7

The most impressive stat is in the 34 matches since he joined Derby, they garnered 73 points, and the 12 previous they only managed 12.  Without Wisdom, I highly doubt they would have even made the Championship playoff.

I honestly think we should keep Wisdom and make him the starter.  I understand Rodgers' thinking here, but I don't think hanging on to Johnson for another season when he still has sell value is a good plan.  Johnson will be 30 come August and I doubt he has but a few years left in competitive top flight football.  Wisdom and even Martin Kelly deserve their shot and bringing in another right back is just a waste of money.

Is Romelu Lukaku worth £26m?

Recent rumours have LFC linked to Chelsea striker, Romelu Lukaku.  The 21-year-old Belgian has spent the last two seasons out on loan, first at West Brom and last season at Everton. Let's look at his output from those campaigns:

Everton 2013-14

npgp90	gcp90	ccp90	ap90	ccv
0.53	0.74	1.13	0.21	18.8
pass%	bp%	sacc%	shot%	TTI90
66.5	53.3	45.9	15.3	11.1
gap90	gsp90	gop90	tgop	gopd90
1.06	1.9	0.84	0.58	0.26

West Brom 2012-13

npgp90	gcp90	ccp90	ap90	ccv
0.67	0.94	1.61	0.18	11.1
pass%	bp%	sacc%	shot%	TTI90
72.1	57.6	48.5	17.5	15
gap90	gsp90	gop90	tgop	gopd90
1.8	1.7	-0.1	-0.1	0

Everton finished 5th last season, while WBA ended up 8th in 2012-13, though the difference between 7th, where Liverpool placed that year, was 12 pts and a 32 goal difference, the second largest point gap next to 19th and 20th, and the largest goal difference by much distance.  Lukaku scored 32.1% of goals and was responsible for 39.6% of goals scored for West Brom, while he had part in 24.6% and 34.4% respectively for Everton last season.

The improvement in his chance created value and turnover rate are probably signs of both growth and being surrounded by more capable teammates, which, if he came to Liverpool, would be the case once again.  His passing rate is a bit worrisome though, but in the few matches he has played for Chelsea, his percentage was 81.2%, which is significantly better.  Why it decreased from WBA to Everton could also be due to the fact that he passed it backward less.

Is he worth £26m though? Well, given his age, physical capabilities, and skills, absolutely.  In fact, that could wind up being a bargain.  I don't think he'll ever be a world class talent, but I can see him scoring 20-25 goals for a lot of seasons to come.  If I were Mourinho, I'd send Torres packing and start playing Lukaku, but you never know with the 'Special One'.

12 points from Man U & Chelsea

It's a bit baffling to think we've taken the double from the two top squads in the league, but it may be a bit more confounding to realize that we've managed only six pts in six matches against four of the eight bottom sides (Tottenham, Hull, Stoke, and Middlesborough). In the end, those results are probably going to be what keeps us from the title.

Though not impossible, it is very much improbable, and as Benitez states, we must win our final nine contests to have any sort of chance. Taking a gander at our remaining schedule, closing out the campaign with twenty-seven points is a doable feat. The toughest matches left being versus Arsenal and Villa, but both of those are at Anfield. Away to West Ham and a visit from those pesky Spurs aren't going to be easy either, but then again, no match is nor should be approached as so, something United's defenders should have probably taken into account before today's contest.

The most impressive feat about today's match? That unless soccerbase.com is incorrect or my eyes have failed me*, Man U has never allowed 4 goals in a Premiership match at Old Trafford. NEVER. In fact, you have to go back to December 30, 1978, when the Mancs lost to West Brom, 5-3, in the old first division, to find a result of four or more allowed in the league. 30 years ago. Quite impressive.

Well, six days until we find out our next Champions League opponent and eight until we face Villa at home. Until then, cheers.

*EDIT - I stand corrected (or maybe I should look into wearing glasses). They allowed 4 goals against QPR at Old Trafford on January 1st, 1992. Still though, that was a first division match, so they truly never have allowed 4 at home in the Prem.

Video of Robbie Fowler's back-to-back braces

The Toxteth terror has scored a pair in each of Cardiff's last two matches. The first was a league match where the Bluebirds drew with Preston.


The second is a win over West Brom. Cheers.