Is the league still winnable? Can we surpass CIty? A look at the remaining schedules.

It has officially become a two horse race.  Sure, Spurs, Chelsea, and even the Gunners could go on a run, but in the end, it will take a significant collapse by City and LFC to allow those clubs back in the hunt for the PL title.  Probably not going to happen.  City is on pace to bank 104 points, while LFC is on track for 99, neither will probably end up with those totals, but it is most likely safe to say they will end up one and two.  The greatest factor is, barring injuries, the remaining schedule.

I cannot stand when people try to claim that strength of schedule is not a factor in the PL.  Yes, every team plays one another twice, once at home and once on the road, but when these matches are played is very important as well.  It is better to play tougher opponents earlier in the schedule or after rest periods, especially away.  Almost any opponent on the road is going to be tough as it is.

So far this season, City has played seven out of fifteen matches on the road.  Liverpool have only played eight, but it is still one more match that they are more likely to get 3 points.  City has played Arsenal, Tottenham, and LFC away, earning an impressive 7 points, with the only non-win being at Anfield.  They were lucky to play the Gunners on the opening round, now I doubt they would have gotten away with a similar 2-0 result since Arsenal has improved significantly. That is also a factor, some clubs get better as the season progressives and Arsenal, Everton, Brighton, Newcastle, and West Ham have all showed improvement since the beginning.  This also means that City have yet to play at Chelsea and United, which I'm hoping the latter is actually a contest.  I don't think I have ever cheered United on, it will be painful, but I have to do so if I hope for the league title.  Liverpool have played at Spurs, Chelsea, and at Gunners, earning 5 points.  They had the misfortune of playing an improved Gunners side in week 11 and honestly, they were lucky to come away with a point.

Neither LFC nor City have played any significant opponents at home other than themselves at Anfield, so those fixtures are probably must wins for the Reds if they have any aspirations to win the league.  City have yet to host Liverpool, which has to be considered the most important fixture left.  A win would be monumental, but a draw is probably the best to hope for.  They play on January 3rd.

If we look at remaining fixtures, who has the tougher schedule? The hardest fixtures left for Liverpool are home to United (12/16), at City (1/3), at United (2/23), at Everton (2/3), home to Spurs (4/6), and home to Chelsea (4/13).  City has at Chelsea (12/8), home to LFC (1/3), home to Arsenal (2/2), home to Chelsea (2/9),  at Everton (2/23), at United (3/16), and home to Spurs (4/20).   That leaves Liverpool with one less 'hardest' fixture and a potential six point swing, though that is optimistic.

Between the two sides, City really only have the only bad result with a draw at Wolves, so lets look at the potential 'upsets'.  Liverpool very well could lose or concede points at Bournemouth in two days (they are sixth in the league after all), at West Ham (2/2),at Wolves (12/21), and at Newcastle (5/4).  I highly doubt points will be lost at Newcastle, but karma (Rafa) may come into play.  City have  home to Everton (12/15), at Newcastle (1/29),  and at Bournemouth (3/2).  Liverpool have it a little rougher with these mid-table/trending fixtures, but we are really only talking maybe a two-point margin.

Finally, the other onerous factor is schedule congestion with regards to opponent strength. City has to play at Chelsea, Leicester, and Southampton, and home to Everton, CP, Liverpool in a 35 day period between 1/8 and 2/3.  They play their toughest matches first (at Chelsea) and last (home to Liverpool), with only one 'challenging' in between (at Everton).  Meanwhile, LFC have to play away to Bournemouth, Wolverhampton, and City, and at home to United, Newcastle, and Arsenal.  Liverpool clearly have a tougher schedule during this period.

There is also Champions League, FA Cup, and League Cup fixtures to consider, but based on just the PL schedule, Liverpool have a slight advantage though it will take a at least one significant upset on City's part and a perfect LFC run to win the league.  I don't want to say anything is impossible though.

EPL Fantasy Week 5: Slim pickings (Everton, Tottenham, and...)

Well, last week you could pick names out of a hat and have a good shot of putting together a solid squad, this week there won't be many names to draw.  The clubs to go with are Everton or Tottenham, but if you have to pick from other squads, I'd go Arsenal, Swansea, or Hull.

Keeper
Tim Howard or Hugo Llloris.  If you want to get adventurous, go with Szczesny, since Aston Villa can only score on set pieces and put backs.

Long term, Mignolet will probably not blunder for at least 3-4 matches now that he goofed on Tuesday.  Plus Liverpool do have a rather easy run upon them. Begovic is still the best keeper in the league and Stoke are still the best defence, so their upcoming fixtures seem manageable on paper.  If you're really into gambling Forster hasn't been the worst form lately and Southampton should be competitive in the next 5 matches or so.

Defenders
Everton's back four of Baines, Jagielka, Stones, and Coleman, if that's who start, are all candidates, as are Tottenham's Kaboul, Dier, Vertonghen, and Danny Rose.  Arsenal and Man U defenders should be decent as well with latter playing a Leicester side that will try to play a very 'controlled' match.  In other words a 0-0 draw will be as good as a victory for them.  Don't bet on that result though.  If I went with my gut, I'd go Chambers, Dier, Rojo, and Jagielka.

Lovren, Shawcross, Moreno, and Alderweireld would be my best bets for the next 4-5 weeks.

Midfielders
Here's where you can get a little risky and not sacrifice points like on defence.  Still Mirallas and McGeady from Everton along with Chadli, Lamela, and Eriksen from Tottenham are the most likely/safest picks.  Arsenal midfielders are a shot in the dark, only because there are so many to chose from, you don't know who'll play.  Last week I was sure Cazorla would make an impact and he never saw the pitch.  The obvious is Ramsey, but even Flamini can put in a decent match here and there. The same with Swansea, as you never know who's going to have big day, you're most likely high scorer is Sigurdsson, but Dyer, Shelvey, Sung-Yeung, and Routledge could all go off any given match.  Out of all those above, I'd go Mirallas, Chadli, Lamela, and Dyer.

In the long term, Sterling, Schniederlin, Victor Moses,  DiMaria and Tadic are the most likely to produce mucho points.

Forward
The most obvious picks here Lukaku and Adebayor, but don't fret over Naismith and Eto'o is a decent roll of the dice.  I don't know about Harry Kane though, you got some brass cajones if you pick him up.  If you want to go Arsenal, Welbeck is bound to have a decent match at some point, but if you want to play it safe there's always Alexis Sanchez.  Other players worth a shot include Jelavic and Abel Hernandez at Hull and Wilfried Bony for Swansea, who is bound to get his starting spot back after Gomis unable to take advantage of his first start.

My long term forwards are Balotelli, Pelle, Diouf, and Flacao.

Senderos leads in on-field assaults: EPL week 4 top performers

Aaron Ramsey  - 1 assist, 3 chances created, 60/68 passing (88.2%), 1 shot on-target, 4 tackles, 3 interceptions

Jack Wilshere - 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 chances created, 52/65 passing (80%), 1 shot on-target, 10 successful dribbles, 2 tackles, 1 clearance, 1 blocked shot

Cesc Fabregas - 2 assists, 6 chances created, 78/83 passing (94%),  2 successful dribbles, 1 interception, 4/5 crosses, 2/3 long balls

Branislav Ivanovic - 6 chances created, 4/4 aerial duels, 2 successful dribbles, 2 tackles, 1 clearance

Diego Costa - 3 goals, 4 shots on-target, 3 chances created, 24/28 passing (85.7%), 2 successful dribbles, 1 tackle

Eden Hazard - 9 successful dribbles, 4 key passes, 4 chances created, 63/68 passing (92.6%), 2 shots on-target, 2 interceptions

Andrew Robertson - 2 chances created, 1 successful dribble, 7 tackles, 5 interceptions, 4 clearances, 2 blocked shots

Mohamed Diame - 7 tackles, 1 goal, 1 shot on-target, 17/18 passing (94.4%), 2 interceptions, 1 blocked shot

Michael Dawson - 11 clearances, 6 interceptions, 5 blocked shots,  4/7 aerial duels, 1 tackle

Curtis Davies - 16 clearances, 6/6 aerial duels, 4 interceptions, 2 blocked shots, 1 tackle

Jason Puncheon - 4 chances created, 3 successful dribbles, 1 shot on-target, 2 tackles, 1 interceptions, 1 clearance

Ritchie de Laet - 2 chances created, 5/7 aerial duels, 4 tackles, 3 interceptions, 12 clearances, 2 blocked shots

Dejan Lovren - 100/118 passing (84.7%), 11/16 long balls, 7/8 aerial duels, 8 clearances, 3 tackles, 2 interceptions

David Silva - 6 chances created, 4 successful dribbles, 1 shot on-target, 2 tackles, 1 interception

Gael Clichy - 2 chances created, 2 successful dribbles,  7 tackles, 3 interceptions, 3 clearances

Ander Herrera - 1 goal, 1 assist, 4 chances created, 2 successful dribbles, 8 tackles, 1 interception, 1 blocked shot, 77/85 passing (90.6%)

Angel Di Maria - 1 goal, 1 assist, 4 chances created, 2 successful dribble, 1 tackle

Morgan Schneiderlin - 1 goal, 62/69 passing (89.9%), 1 successful dribble, 7 tackles, 2 interceptions, 1 clearance

Victor Moses - 24/24 passing (100%), 4 key passes, 10 successful crosses, 4 successful dribbles, 4 tackles, 1 interception

Christian Eriksen - 1 goal, 3 chances created, 78/87 passing (89.7%), 3 successful dribbles, 2 tackles, 1 interception, 1 clearance

Stewart Downing - 7 chances created, 58/60 passing (96.7%), 1 shot on-target, 1 clearance

Barton is right, Welbeck is a better 'team' player than Sturridge, but...

...he's no where near as good a striker nor talented footballer. Unfortunately, when someone as controversial as Joey Barton makes such revelations, they are immediately dismissed and then buried under a slew of ad hominem recoil.  It also doesn't help that he is terrible at proving his points.  Applauding goals that could have easily been scored by most any striker with the kind of service Welbeck received last night proves nothing, especially that he is a good 'team' player.

The two biggest differences between Sturridge and Welbeck is that the former is a brilliant scorer/goal-creator while the latter is a more complete footballer, though not close to a brilliant level.  The former Man U forward is merely average on attack, he will never be spectacular, not even at Arsenal were he'll be spoon-fed goal opportunities. He is one of the better defensive forwards, stifles counters before they can come to fruition and gets back for support.  Last season he posted a defensive possession efficiency of 0.636, much better than an attack-first forward like Sturridge, who had a 0.541 dpe.

Welbeck is a better overall passer as well, posting an 87.4% completion rate last season compared to Sturridge who managed a 79.3%.  When it comes to assists and chances created, Welbeck pales in comparison.  Sturridge had 7 assists and 29 chances created compared to Welbeck who had 1 and 13 respectively.  The Liverpool forward did play 800 more minutes, 55.2% more than his United counterpart, but last time I checked, that doesn't equate 7 to 1.

Sturridge creates and scores goals at a world-class rate, while Welbeck does not.  Sturridge scored 0.83 goals and created 1.11 per 90 minutes last season, Welbeck averaged 0.55 and 0.62, not even close.  It sort of makes me scratch my head that Arsenal bought him, but I guess they were desperate.  They, like every other unbiased, somewhat intelligent manager would take Sturridge over Welbeck in a second.  No, he's not a better team player, but I'll take his goal created a match since it's much more likely to help the team win opposed to a tackle or clearance in midfield.

Expect a big match from Balotelli versus Villa

Mario Balotelli took a little warming his first go-around in the Prem.  In fact, his first season at City was somewhat forgettable.  The first time he saw the pitch was a 3-0 loss to Arsenal at the Etihad.  He was a surprise sub, expected to be out due to injury, but he came on for the then 10-man City side in the 72nd minute for a fruitless effort to break his duck.  They were already down 2-0 and to make matters even more embarrassing, Nicklas Bendtner added a third.

His first full debut was a week later at the Molineaux.  City were more pretenders than contenders at the time and it showed.  They had yet to add some missing pieces, most notably Samir Nasri, and Balotelli actually started on the left behind Adebayor.  It was a dreadful performance for the Italian who had 5 shots, though none on-goal, was 15 of 21 passing (71.4%) and caused 17 turnovers. His only positives were 2 chances created and 2 successful tackles, as a red-faced City fell 2-1.

In his third match he finally scored, twice in fact, at the Hawthorns with both goals less than 7 minutes apart.  He then managed a straight red after 'kicking-out' while entangled with Youssuf Mulumbu.  He wouldn't score again until a hat-trick against Aston Villa at the end of December 2010, which included two pens.  He would end that season with only 6 goals, 0 assists, and 8 chances created in 17 appearances.

Flash forward to February 3, 2013.  Balotelli had made the switch to AC Milan and makes his debut at the San Siro versus Udinese.  He managed a brace, the first an ugly left-footed straggler in the box and the other a pen from a gratuitous call earned by an near-paraplegic Sharaaway.  He would go on to score in 8 of the final 10 matches played by Milan that season for a total of 12 goals in 13 matches.

So what should we expect?  A brace in his next match? Well, it's certainly probable considering it will be his first at Anfield and the opponent will be Villa, but he should be a factor in the least.  I fully expect he and Sturridge (if fit) to get at least one each.  This is the match that we need to send a message to the rest of the league and that message should be, 'We are contenders and we aren't going anywhere.'

Wanted: Yaya Sanogo, for impersonating a footballer (Match day 3 morsels)

 - Aaron Ramsey created 6 chances for Arsenal against Leicester, though none resulted in goal.  He had all of zero going into the match.  He also had a redonkulous 134 touches, was 101 of 116 passing (87.1%), 11 of 14 on long balls, a shot-on target, one tackle, 3 interceptions, and 2 clearances.

- Arsenal had 19 chances created total at Leicester, 4 less than Man United has produced all year, as many as Burnley has managed thus far, and two more than the Villans this season.

- Yaya Sanogo took seven shots, two on-goal, one busted a windshield in the parking lot, one woke up an old Arsenal fan who resumed knitting her grandson a cap, another landed in the cotton candy machine, and there are missing persons reports being filed for the other two as I write this.

- Villa were so dreadful that Fabian Delph was named second best player of the match.  Also, they went down in defence rankings to dead last despite playing at home to Hull.  Poor Alan Hutton.

- Nemanja Matic put in a player of the week performance with a goal, an assist, 2 chances created, 3 successful take-ons, 5 tackles, 2 interceptions, a clearance, and a blocked shot.

- Andy King completed 31 of 35 (88.6%) passes, created 4 chances, 4 tackles, 2 interceptions, 1 take-on and one blocked shot.  The rest of his side created 5 chances total.

- Southampton's Dusan Tadic created 5 chances, completed 92.2% of his passes (47 of 51), had 4 tackles, an interception, and a shot-on target.

- Patrick van Aanholt and Phillip 'Beaker' Jones became the first members of the 10-10-10 club (10 tackles, 10 interceptions, 10 clearances) for the season.  Javier Manquillo is only three clearances away and Hull's Andy Robertson is currently a member of the quite rare 9-9-9 club.

- Kaspar Schmeichel was 12 on 31 long balls giving him a league-leading 35 of 96.  The next nearest on completions is Burnley's Tom Heaton who is 29 of 60 and the next in attempts is Hull's Alan McGregor with 79.

- Antonio Valencia was 0 for 12 on crosses against Burnley pushing Man United to dead last in the league with a 11.7% completion rate (9 of 77).

- Mike Williamson & Graziano Pelle are tied with 20 aerial duels won, only it took the Newcastle defender 21 less attampts to do so (24 to 45).

Chelsea & Tottenham dominate most outstanding performances from Matchday Two

Most outstanding performances from matchday two:

Calum Chambers, Arsenal
47/49 passing, 95.9%, 1 cc, 2 tackles, 1 int, 10 clearances

Dean Marney, Burnley
62/67 passing, 92.5%, 6/7 long passes, 2 cc, 5 tackles, 4 ints, 2 clearances

Eden Hazard, Chelsea
1 goal, 48/54 passing, 88.9%, 7 cc, 6 successful take-ons, 2 sot

Cesc Fabregas, Chelsea
72/77 passes, 93.5%, 4 cc, 2 sot, 3 take-ons, 1 tackles

Cesar Azpilicueta, Chelsea
50/55 passes, 90.9%, 1 cc, 5 tackles, 2 ints, 6 clearances

Mile Jedinak, Crystal Palace
9/10 aerial duels, 1 cc, 6 tackles, 4 ints, 1 blocked shot

Antonio Valencia, Man United
54/59 passing, 91.5%, 1 cc, 7 tackles, 3 ints, 1 blocked shot

Joey Barton, QPR
42/50 passing, 84%, 9/13 long passes, 4 cc, 7 tackles, 2 ints

Ryan Shawcross, Stoke
1 goal, 2 sot, 1 take-on, 3 tackles, 1 int, 12 clearances, 1 blocked shot

Ashley Williams, Swansea
61/67 passes, 91%, 10/15 long passes, 2 tackles, 2 ints, 11 clearances

Emmanuel Adebayor, Tottenham
1 g, 1 ast, 38/42 passing, 90.5%, 4 cc, 2 sot, 1 take-on, 1 int, 1 clearance

Erik Lamela, Tottenham
2 assists, 43/48 passing, 89.6%, 3 cc, 5 take-ons, 3 tackles, 2 ints

Nacer Chadli, Tottenham
2 goals, 26/28 passing, 92.9%, 1 cc, 1 take-on, 2 ints, 1 clearances

Eric Dier, Tottenham
1 g, 42/48 passing, 87.5%, 1 cc, 1 take-on, 7 tackles, 1 clearance

Danny Rose, Tottenham
1 assist, 59/66 passing, 89.4%, 1 cc, 5/7 aerial duels, 2 tckls, 3 ints, 4 clrs

Youssouf Mulumbu, WBA
50/58 passing, 86.2%, 1 take-on, 9 tackles, 6 ints, 1 blocked shot

Cheikhou Kouyate, West Ham
1 assist, 1 cc, 2 sot, 5/10 aerial duels, 4 take-ons, 5 tckls, 2 ints, 2 clearances

Coutinho least efficient for Liverpool, Anichebe worst in the league

Coutinho, our wee Brazilian wizard, may have just been called up by Brazil, but it's doubtfully due to his performance versus Southampton on Sunday.  He posted the worst outfield player passing rate of 75.7% and turned the ball over 17 times.  His stats combined gave him an efficiency in possession rating of 0.569 and efficiency over team score of -0.159.  There's no doubt he'll improve, he's just got to realize this isn't pre-season anymore.

Though his numbers weren't good, at least our Radagast was no where near the bottom of the efficiency tables in the Prem.  Here are the ten worst in per and eot:

Player efficiency rating

V. Anichebe	0.303
C. Wickham	0.350
C. Cole	0.367
Kieran Tripper	0.397
A. Knockaert	0.400
M. Biram Diouf	0.407
J. Puncheon	0.407
S. Pocognoli	0.418
Y. Bolasie	0.421
F. Campbell	0.423

Efficiency over team

V. Anichebe	-0.351
C. Cole	-0.338
M. Biram Diouf	-0.314
Y. Sanogo	-0.311
C. Wickham	-0.299
P. Bardsley	-0.297
A. Knockaert	-0.267
S. Pocognoli	-0.235
D. Tadic	-0.230
C. Austin	-0.207

Former Everton and current West Brom forward Victor Anichebe tops a list of a lot of other medicore front-liners to take the Golden Rubbish Bin.  Anichebe played the full 90, but only managed 33 touches and 8 completed passes at a 44.4% completion rate.  Meanwhile his partner scored a brace.

Other questions these tables bring up are how long will Sunderland wait for Wickham to find his form?  How long will Sanogo have to prove himself at Arsenal?  And is Tadic really that poor?  He didn't seem so, but the stats say different.

Mental Team Stats from Matchday One

Most efficient in possession

Man City	0.695
Arsenal	0.690
Man U	0.681
Everton	0.676
Chelsea	0.673
Liverpool	0.645

Keeping the ball away from City would be ideal.  And Jesus Navas didn't even play.

Defensive efficiency

C Palace	0.212
Sunderland	0.172
Hull City	0.150
Leicester	0.136
Swansea	0.130

Crystal Palace continues their dominating defensive form from last season, meanwhile City is 11th (0.102), Liverpool is 12th (0.100), and Man United are dead last (0.057).

Overall Efficiency

Man City	0.798
Arsenal	0.766
Chelsea	0.749
Everton	0.746
Liverpool	0.746

The most important of these three numbers taking into account all favorable actions of players (i.e. keeping possession and preventing the other side from scoring).  Arsenal is only ranked high here because of their passing, I expect them to fall rapidly as they play sides that focus more on possession-based defence instead of Palace's somewhat suicidal 'mighty fortress' stance.

Chance created value

Swansea	0.400
Crystal Palace	0.333
Chelsea	0.222
Liverpool	0.200
Everton	0.167

United is in a ton of trouble if they don't get some help on defence, Swansea has a decent attack but it's no where near the abilities of the top clubs.

Tidbits

- West Ham created the most chances of any side with 13, but failed to score.  They also connected on the most crosses with 11, while Tottenham was the only club that was unsuccessful on all their cross attempts, going 0 for 13.

- Arsenal completed the most passes with 640, 89 more than 2nd-most Chelsea, but they attempted the least amount of long balls in 34.

- QPR took the most shots (19) and tied for the most on goal (6) with Arsenal and Southampton, but failed to score.

- Liverpool lead all sides in take-ons with 15.

- Not surprising, even though Howard Webb retired, Man United 'won' the most fouls with 20.

- Only three clubs had multiple assists: Chelsea, Liverpool, and Swansea, all three sides won.

The most dangerous player for Southampton at Anfield

Nathaniel Clyne gets no respect.  The 23-year-old right back put up some solid attacking numbers last season and was more of a catalyst in the opponent's third than Luke Shaw or any other Saints defender.  If he is allowed to be a factor tomorrow, it will increase Southampton's chances of scoring and even winning exponentially.  They will probably push forward in limited numbers as not to suffer an 'easy' goal on the counter and an extra player to stretch the Liverpool defence would be very beneficial in that regard.

Here is the offensive output for Clyne last season:

ap90	cc90	cc90	ccv	pass%	bp%	lb90	lb%	tti90	gopd
0.19	0.19	0.58	0.143	0.816	0.41	1.26	0.542	10.73	0.42

The most impressive stat is his goals on pitch difference.  Lovren, Shaw, and especially Chambers paled in comparison.  Our new centre back posted an acceptable -0.05, Shaw was a little bit better with a 0.03, but Chambers was horrendous with a -0.59, a full goal difference than Clyne.  Did Arsenal buy the wrong right back?  I think so.

Despite the endless jokes the south coast club has endured this summer, Southampton is not without quality.  Even with Jay Rodriguez out due to injury, they will be a formidable attacking force.  The key will be how well their midfield interacts.  Most likely, Morgan Schniederlin (or Jack Cork) and Victor Wanyama will start as defensive midfielders with Gaston Ramirez, Dušan Tadić, Steven Davis, and James-Ward Prowse in front of them.  Not to be too cliché, but the Saints will look to hold on to the ball as long as possible, forcing Liverpool to come at them and hoping the Merseysiders will make a mistake.

Unfortunately for them, it will leave new boy Graziano Pellè alone at the top.  I don't expect much from the Italian striker, bar a lot of frustration, but getting him the ball in open space will put the skills of Tadić & company to test.  If they can gain any momentum, expect Nathaniel Clyne and/or Ryan Bertrand to 'bomb' forward and help out on the attacking end.  It would be 'suicidal' to do so often though as Liverpool's counter is quick and deadly.

If I had to make a prediction, I'd say Liverpool 2-1 with goals from Coutinho, Skrtel, and Shane Long.

What 'history' says about the loss of Suarez

A Premiership club losing their own and the league's leading scorer from the previous campaign is nothing new, in fact, it's happened four times prior.  In 95-96, Alan Shearer set a Premier League record by scoring 31 goals for Blackburn.  The Rovers finished 7th that season and Shearer was sold to Newcastle in the summer for a world record transfer fee of £15m.  They were never really able to find a replacement and a downward spiral to relegation was sowed, coming to fruition following the 1998-99 campaign.

In 1997-98, the great Dion Dublin found the back of the net 18 times for Coventry, accounting for 39.1% of the Sky Blues' goals that season.  The total tied him atop the league charts along with Liverpool's own, Michael Owen, and Chris Sutton.  He was then bought by Villa in the summer transfer window for £5.75.

The season after he left, Coventry struggled, scoring 7 less goals overall and finishing 15th.  They tried replacing Dublin with John Aloisi, who at that time was a 22-year-old striker coming off an impressive campaign at First Division (which was the equivalent of the Championship back then) Portsmouth.  The Australian failed to fill Dublin's boots and eventually led to the club being relegated in 2001.

The next season, Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink and Mickey Owen both scored 18 to lead the league.  Hasselbaink played for Leeds at that time and unsatisfactory contract offers forced him to put in a transfer request during the summer of 1999.  He was sold to Athletico Madrid where he had a stellar season, scoring 24 goals in 34 La Liga matches.

Leeds didn't miss him though, despite the 27-year-old Dutchman being responsible for 29% of their goals, they actually went up a spot on the table to 3rd.  The remarkable thing is they garnered 69 points, 2 more than they did during Hasselbaink's final season, despite scoring 4 less goals and allowing 9 more.  An Australian lad by the name of Kewell stepped up and filled the gap scoring 10 and (unofficially) assisting on another 13 in league play.

Finally, just two seasons ago, Robin Van Persie betrayed the Arsenal faithful, selling his soul to the Red Devils.  The 30 goals he scored in  his final season at the London club lead the league and accounted for 40.5% of the Gunner's total.  The following season Arsenal finished a spot lower at 4th despite accumulating three more points.  Their goals scored only dropped by 2, while they held their opponents to 12 less.  If Liverpool would do the latter this season, they have a good chance of winning the league, even if they score 20 goals less.

What about non-league leading scorers who were significant contributors to their club the season before leaving:

year	player	prev club	goals	club	pct	place	after
94-95	L. Ferdinand	QPR	24	61	39.34%	8th	19th
	S. Collymore	Nott Forest	22	72	30.56%	3rd	9th
	J. Klinnsman	Tottenham	21	66	31.82%	7th	8th
98-99	N. Anelka	Arsenal	17	59	28.81%	2nd	2nd
05-06	Van Nistelroy	Man U	21	72	29.17%	2nd	1st
06-07	Mark Viduka	Mids'boro	14	44	31.82%	12th	13th
	Darrent Bent	Charlton	13	34	38.24%	19th	11th*
08-09	C. Ronaldo	Man U	18	68	26.47%	1st	2nd
11-12	C. Dempsey	Fulham	18	68	26.47%	9th	12th
	Yakubu	Blackburn	17	48	35.42%	19th	17th*
12-13	Gareth Bale	Tottenham	21	66	31.82%	5th	6th
	R. Lukaku	WBA (loan)	17	53	32.08%	8th	17th
	Demba Ba	Newcastle	15	45	33.33%	16th	10th

*Clubs were relegated the player's final season and this is their finishing place in the Championship the following campaign.

One thing that can be derived is that 'major' clubs take the loss of a significant attacking player much better than 'mid-table' or 'smaller' sides.  That gives hope to Liverpool, though only twice has a club increased their finishing place on the table.  Leeds in 2000-01, as mentioned above, and in 2006-07 when Mangoloid U won the league after the loss of Van Nistelroy. Another thing that should be pointed out is none of the clubs mentioned in this post featured the second leading league scorer from the previous season, whereas Liverpool have Daniel Sturridge.

The best 'unknown' striker in the world and why Rodgers should sign him

Seydou Doumbia is not completely unknown, Arsenal and Newcastle have both been linked to him in recent years, yet he continues to terrorize defenses of the Russian Premier League.  Prior to that, he made minced meat of the Swiss Super League, winning player of the year honours in 2008-09 and 2009-10.

The 26-year-old Ivorian's scoring rate at CSKA Moscow is Suarez-esque, 54 goals in 82 matches, but that's not the only indication he is worthy of a £25m transfer fee.  Here are his stats for his club from last season:

npgp90	gcp90	ccp90	ap90	ccv
0.81	1.45	1.34	0.41	30.4
pass%	bp%	sacc%	shot%	TTI90
77.3	45.2	51.7	31	10.1
gap90	gsp90	gop90	tgop	gopd90
0.7	2.56	1.86	0.77	1.09

Those numbers in blue are outstanding and he's been posting such for six years now.  Sure, the RPL and the SSL are not the EPL, but even if his production drops by a third, he'll still produce a goal a match.

It's not just goals though, it's his efficiency. A 30.4% chance created value combined with a 31% goal for shot rate is ridiculous, Sturridge was the closest player for us last year with a 23.3% ccv and a 21.2% shot percentage.

His feet are quick, but not Suarez-level quick, few are.  His finishing is not clinical, it's extraordinary.  He also has the knack to be in the right place at the right time, which is something that can't be taught.  He's a unique talent who knows how to score no matter the given situation and that's why Rodgers should try and sign him.

Need more evidence? Start with this video. 

Alexis Sanchez & Arsenal: A match made in delusional heaven

Whether this Goal article has even an ounce of truth to it, it is still amusing.  In it, apparently Alexis Sanchez claims he chose Arsenal because 'With [Mesut] Ozil in the squad Arsenal were [close] to winning the league title. I hope I can make a contribution so we can win as many titles as possible.' Now that's comedy at it's finest.  He must not be aware that the Gooners finished fourth last season.

He also says about Wenger, 'I was told that he is a manager you can learn a lot with. He wants to achieve great things in football and that helped me make the decision to sign for Arsenal.' Wenger was great, 10 or so years ago, but he's well past it now.  Just ask Bendtner or Chamakh how great a teacher he is.

The sad thing is, Arsenal supporters think he will actually be able to improve their club.  If he's so great why did Barcelona want to off-load him? Do you think it may be because he was part of their epic down slide last season when they won not a single trophy for the first time in six seasons? In fact, in the three seasons he was with Barca, they won a total of six honours.  For most clubs, that would be impressive, but Barca averaged a full trophy more the three seasons before including winning two Champions Leagues and La Liga every season.  They won no Cl and only one La Liga title with Sanchez.

I guess that makes them a perfect fit.  On one hand you have a club that won it's first major trophy in nine years last season, almost finished third in the league, and have Mesut Ozil, and on the other you have a player who is okay with his team not performing up to par of their previous seasons' title and cup-winning standards.  If all goes as plans, the Gunners will finish fifth and make the League Cup final.

Shaqiri, Rojo, Sanchez, & Origi: The transfer vultures are circling

Though it appears Lazar Markovic is a likely signing, others who were once possibly on our radar are gone or slowly disappearing.  Of the four I listed in this post's title, the only one whom I'm disappointed about is Shaqiri. Apparently Bayern Munich offered him more money, but will that translate into more playing time for the loaded German side? Not that he'll be handed a spot at Liverpool, but Der FCB isn't called 'FC Hollywood' for nothing.

Apparently Roma are now in talks to sign the Swiss International.  If I were Shaqiri and an Serie A club came for me with an offer equivalent or greater than what I could make anywhere else, I'd sign faster than an imploding Brazilian defense.  Shaqiri will run rampant in Italy and his has the technical prowess to persevere as well.

Personally I have not been all the impressed with Marcos Rojo at the World Cup.  He's got that WC hype feeling.  He has received praises for his play in Portugal, but his stats do not overwhelm other than his card collection of 14 yellows and 3 reds in 33 matches.  If that's not a red flag, I don't know what is.

I don't care about Sanchez.  He prefers Arsenal and that tells me he's absolutely clueless.  The reason being his family wants to 'live in London' is just lame.  Oh well, have fun getting rotated to death and make sure not to make Arsene angry, you wouldn't like him when he's angry.

Finally we get to Origi, who I have already written about. Now there are reports that Spurs are interested in him.  I couldn't care less either way considering we would probably loan him back to Lille anyhow.  Seems ridiculous to me to spend £10m for a player just to loan him back to the club we bought him from.  What are we, Chelsea now? And if Origi wants to know how things will probably work out for him at Tottenham, I suggest he give Erik Lamela a call.

Oh and we missed out on Ashley Cole.  You can only imagine the tears.  Let's just hope we 'miss out' on Bertrand as well.  I will really be crying then.

The age-old debate: Coutinho vs Ozil

Ever since Michael Owen trolled Arsenal fans by claiming Coutinho is superior to Ozil, an endless debate has spawned.  One thing before we look at their complete stats from last season.  They usually don't play the same position, but when Coutinho plays central midfield, Ozil's primary position, the Brazilian has the higher production.  I'll explain more after the stats.

	Coutinho	Ozil
age	22	25
app (sub)	28(5)	25(1)
mins	2323	2139
goals	5	5
assists	7	9
chances	64	76
npg90	0.19	0.21
gcp90	0.47	0.59
ccp90	2.5	3.2
ap90	0.27	0.38
ccv	10.8	11.9
pass %	80.6	88
bp %	36.7	41.5
sacc %	28.7	60
shot %	7	16.7
TTI90	11	12.4

As you can see, Ozil edges out in most every stat, but he should.  He's older, more experienced and usually plays the same position, central attacking midfielder.  Which takes us back to my aforementioned point.

Coutinho played 16 matches at central midfield and in those matches he scored 3 goals and served up 7 assists.  At that rate, had he played all his matches at that spot, he would have probably had more impressive stats than his Arsenal counterpart.

It's all speculation in the end, but to be honest, if Coutinho puts up the same numbers as Ozil in three years, I will be slightly disappointed.  He's nearly at that level now and he's potentially much better.  Rodgers wouldn't trade the Brazilian for the German and neither would I.

Pepe Reina or Simon Mignolet?

Since Napoli have admitted they won't be able to pay Pepe Reina to stay, he may be sold to Arsenal at a discount of £5m.  I think most would agree it would be bad business to sell Reina to a competing club like Arsenal, but what if a lesser club like West Brom or even Villa come knocking?  Should Reina be given the chance to be our number 1 again?  Should we try to keep him as a back-up? I don't know about anyone else, but I wasn't exactly blown away by Mignolet last season.  Let's look at the stats, two seasons ago for Reina and last season for Mignolet, league matches only.

	Reina	Mignolet
matches (sub)	31	38
clean sheets	14	10
goals allowed per	1.1	1.32
saves per match	1.35	1.97
saves per goal	1.27	1.7
avg claim success %	89	96
dist. success %	75	69
pass success %	70.8	67.3
aerial duel win %	85.7	83.3
long ball success %	45.8	39

The most important stats here are saves per goal and average claim success percentage, both of which go to Mignolet.  The 7% difference between the two keepers in ACSP is crippling to Reina if he has any aspirations to win his old job back.  It is an indication of what many think of the 31-year-old Spaniard: he takes unnecessary risks and has frequent momentary lapses of reason and concentration.

In his last couple of seasons, Reina appeared to be more interested in trying to create goal scoring opportunities instead of trying to prevent them.  The thing is, he's quite good at contributing to the attack, much more so than Mignolet, but what's the point if you can't do your primary job as a keeper?  I would even argue that Reina had a better defense in front of him than Mignolet does now.

Reina had Jamie Carragher and a healthy Jose Enrique for most of the season.  Though Carra was in his twilight year, he knew his limitations, made few mistakes, and was in command of Liverpool's defense, even when he wasn't on the pitch.  When he was, Carragher rarely went forward as much as Agger, Skrtel, and Sakho tend to.  The thing about Mignolet is that he doesn't take command like a keeper should and if that doesn't change, he should find his way somewhere else soon.