What 'history' says about the loss of Suarez

A Premiership club losing their own and the league's leading scorer from the previous campaign is nothing new, in fact, it's happened four times prior.  In 95-96, Alan Shearer set a Premier League record by scoring 31 goals for Blackburn.  The Rovers finished 7th that season and Shearer was sold to Newcastle in the summer for a world record transfer fee of £15m.  They were never really able to find a replacement and a downward spiral to relegation was sowed, coming to fruition following the 1998-99 campaign.

In 1997-98, the great Dion Dublin found the back of the net 18 times for Coventry, accounting for 39.1% of the Sky Blues' goals that season.  The total tied him atop the league charts along with Liverpool's own, Michael Owen, and Chris Sutton.  He was then bought by Villa in the summer transfer window for £5.75.

The season after he left, Coventry struggled, scoring 7 less goals overall and finishing 15th.  They tried replacing Dublin with John Aloisi, who at that time was a 22-year-old striker coming off an impressive campaign at First Division (which was the equivalent of the Championship back then) Portsmouth.  The Australian failed to fill Dublin's boots and eventually led to the club being relegated in 2001.

The next season, Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink and Mickey Owen both scored 18 to lead the league.  Hasselbaink played for Leeds at that time and unsatisfactory contract offers forced him to put in a transfer request during the summer of 1999.  He was sold to Athletico Madrid where he had a stellar season, scoring 24 goals in 34 La Liga matches.

Leeds didn't miss him though, despite the 27-year-old Dutchman being responsible for 29% of their goals, they actually went up a spot on the table to 3rd.  The remarkable thing is they garnered 69 points, 2 more than they did during Hasselbaink's final season, despite scoring 4 less goals and allowing 9 more.  An Australian lad by the name of Kewell stepped up and filled the gap scoring 10 and (unofficially) assisting on another 13 in league play.

Finally, just two seasons ago, Robin Van Persie betrayed the Arsenal faithful, selling his soul to the Red Devils.  The 30 goals he scored in  his final season at the London club lead the league and accounted for 40.5% of the Gunner's total.  The following season Arsenal finished a spot lower at 4th despite accumulating three more points.  Their goals scored only dropped by 2, while they held their opponents to 12 less.  If Liverpool would do the latter this season, they have a good chance of winning the league, even if they score 20 goals less.

What about non-league leading scorers who were significant contributors to their club the season before leaving:

year	player	prev club	goals	club	pct	place	after
94-95	L. Ferdinand	QPR	24	61	39.34%	8th	19th
	S. Collymore	Nott Forest	22	72	30.56%	3rd	9th
	J. Klinnsman	Tottenham	21	66	31.82%	7th	8th
98-99	N. Anelka	Arsenal	17	59	28.81%	2nd	2nd
05-06	Van Nistelroy	Man U	21	72	29.17%	2nd	1st
06-07	Mark Viduka	Mids'boro	14	44	31.82%	12th	13th
	Darrent Bent	Charlton	13	34	38.24%	19th	11th*
08-09	C. Ronaldo	Man U	18	68	26.47%	1st	2nd
11-12	C. Dempsey	Fulham	18	68	26.47%	9th	12th
	Yakubu	Blackburn	17	48	35.42%	19th	17th*
12-13	Gareth Bale	Tottenham	21	66	31.82%	5th	6th
	R. Lukaku	WBA (loan)	17	53	32.08%	8th	17th
	Demba Ba	Newcastle	15	45	33.33%	16th	10th

*Clubs were relegated the player's final season and this is their finishing place in the Championship the following campaign.

One thing that can be derived is that 'major' clubs take the loss of a significant attacking player much better than 'mid-table' or 'smaller' sides.  That gives hope to Liverpool, though only twice has a club increased their finishing place on the table.  Leeds in 2000-01, as mentioned above, and in 2006-07 when Mangoloid U won the league after the loss of Van Nistelroy. Another thing that should be pointed out is none of the clubs mentioned in this post featured the second leading league scorer from the previous season, whereas Liverpool have Daniel Sturridge.

Is Gonzalo Higuaín worth more than Suárez?

We all know Ronaldo and Messi are the cream of the European football crop, but number three is up for grabs with Luis Suárez and Gonzalo Higuaín among the top candidates.  Most people believe the Uruguayan is the clear cut choice, but a closer look at their performance data may lead to a change of mind.

The fact is, Higuaín is the superior player when it comes to the numbers.  The Argentine is considered to be more of a 'poacher' while most believe Suárez is the more complete player, but the stats tell a different story.  Both players have benefited by playing most of their careers at 'big' clubs.  Ajax may not seem like as 'big' a club as it was 20 years ago, but it still attracts some of the best young talent in the world and was absolutely loaded the years El Conejo Loco played there.  His teammates included Klaas-Jan Huntelaar, Jan Vertonghen, Urby Emanuelson, Thomas Vermaelen, Dennis Rommedahl, Maarten Stekelenburg, and Gregory van der Wiel among others.

Also, it could be argued that Suarez prospered from playing in a lesser league where his 'world class' talents allowed him to dominant his 'lesser' opponents while Higuain had to deal with the superior defences of La Liga.  Not to mention that the Eredivisie is an 'attacker's paradise' where players tend to rack up more impressive offensive stats than any other league in Europe.

Here are their accumulative stats since the 2006-07 seasons:

	npg90	ap90	gc90	cc90	ccv	pass%	sacc%	shot%	TTI90	gopd
Higuaín	0.73	0.31	1.09	1.38	0.23	0.808	0.518	0.449	12.27	0.11
Suárez	0.62	0.17	0.87	2.50	0.09	0.753	0.407	0.296	17.37	0.09

Higuaín takes almost every stat except chances created, but his chance created value is far superior.  In fact, one out of every four of his chances finds the back of the net while only one out of eleven for Suarez result in a goal.  That is one of the best ccvs I have ever seen and really sums up what Higuain is, efficient.  It's not that Suarez lacks in precision, but he fails in comparison to his Argentine counterpart.

The one thing Suarez does better, though is hard to quantify, is create chances for himself.  Though it doesn't really show self-created chances, the former Liverpool man has a successful dribble rate of 2.88 per 90 at 38% while the Napoli striker posts a 1.40 sdr90 at 47%.  Once again, Higuain is more efficient, though only completes half as many take-ons per ninety minutes.

To answer the question of this post though, no, I don't think Higuain is worth more than Suarez.  Numbers aren't everything and if you put the latter on the worst team in any league, I firmly believe he would make a bigger impact than the former.  Suarez doesn't need highly-skilled teammates to make a difference, but they obviously help.  Higuain is more efficient and can make a good team great, but I highly doubt he would be able to lead a team like Stoke to a Champions League spot.  He would make Liverpool more of a contender though, but £80m?  Messi is the only player worthy of that amount, but if we could somehow get Napoli to agree to half that, Rodgers would be crazy not to break the bank for him.

There is only one reason Gerrard should ever play for England again

To knock Beckham off his perch and become the top capped outfield player in Three Lions history. That's it, two more matches and he should hang up those boots.  Gerrard is 34 and we need him to put his England days behind him and  focus on LFC.

After the World Cup embarassment, he should probably go ahead and retire, but with my disdain for 'pretty foot', I don't mind if he suits up a couple more matches.  I don't think it'll do England any good though, they've clearly got to give Barkley, Henderson, and Wilshere more playing time, if they want to improve.  They also need to get a better manager.

I've heard Gerrard called a failure on the International level and that's why he isn't 'world class'.  Rubbish, one man does not make a team, though there were times when Gerrard carried his country.  His statistical output for England has been impressive so far, especially when you consider he's played nearly every outfield position.

npgp90	gcp90	ccp90	ap90	ccv
0.22	0.46	1.97	0.24	12.3
pass%	bp%	sacc%	shot%	TTI90
80.2	25.9*	46.7	15.3	12.7
gap90	gsp90	gop90	tgop	gopd90
0.81	1.99	1.18	0.99	0.19
tp90	tack%	intp90	clrp90	bsp90
2.52	71.8	1.92	1.3	0.45

Those are solid numbers all around save his turnover rate.  His goals on pitch difference per 90 of 0.19 means he has been worth nearly an extra goal every five matches, +21.66 for his career.  Which isn't surprising when he was actually played a part in a quarter of his side's goals when he plays.

I don't really care if others don't think he's world class, but saying it is because he doesn't perform on the international stage is not valid.  In reality, he's played quite well and if it's because he's never won a Euro or a World Cup, I guess Messi, Ronaldo, Bale, Rooney, Robben, Van Persie, and anybody else who hasn't played for Germany, Spain, Italy, or Brazil in the past 12 years isn't 'world class' either.

How good is Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz?

Before the World Cup match between Uruguay and England, Roy Hodgson said that Luis Suarez is not yet 'world class'.  Well, he found out the hard way how wrong he was.  Suarez may not have had the greatest match, but his world class ability shone through.

Let's see how he sizes up against some other players considered 'world class'.  Charted below is their previous seasons in their respective leagues except for Falcao, his stats are from his previous and last season in La Liga with Atletico Madrid.

	Suarez	Messi	Ronaldo	Bale	Costa	Falcao
age	27	26	29	24	25	28
app (sub)	33	29(2)	30	24(3)	34(1)	34
mins	2962	2498	2537	2065	2952	2896
goals	31	28	31	15	27	28
assists	12	11	9	12	3	1
chances	87	75	47	40	45	32
npg90	0.94	0.79	0.89	0.66	0.67	0.62
gcp90	1.3	1.4	1.3	1.2	0.91	0.9
ccp90	2.6	2.8	1.6	1.8	1.4	1
pass %	74.8	85	80.3	76.3	75.5	79.9
bp %	44.1	44.6	56.4	52.2	61	59.4
sacc %	44.8	46.3	43.1	34.1	50	43.1
shot %	17.1	17.5	14.4	17.1	25	22.8
TTI90	17	13.1	12.9	11.5	15.5	12.8
	Sturridge	Y. Toure	Aguero	RVP	Rooney	Ribery
age	24	31	26	30	28	31
app (sub)	26(3)	35	20(3)	18(3)	27(2)	18(4)
mins	2267	2917	1526	1578	2446	1635
goals	21	20	17	12	17	10
assists	7	9	6	3	10	10
chances	29	40	34	16	56	56
npg90	0.83	0.43	1	0.57	0.51	0.55
gcp90	1.1	0.9	1.4	0.86	1	1.1
ccp90	1.2	1.2	2	0.9	2.1	2.8
pass %	79.3	90.1	84.9	76.7	80.1	83.9
bp %	53.4	35.1	56	50.9	48.4	50.8
sacc %	42.4	42.2	50	33.9	42.6	49.2
shot %	21.2	31.3	19.8	19.4	16.8	17
TTI90	11	10.2	11.8	10.5	15.4	17.8

Suarez comes in 2nd in non-penalty goals per 90, 3rd in goals created per 90, and 3rd in chances created per 90.  He also finished 4th in shot accuracy.  Unfortunately he had the worst pass rate, but he did have the second lowest back pass percentage, bettered only by Yaya Toure.  His TTI90 was second worst after Franck Ribery, mainly due to bad pass attempts.

Overall he is bested by Messi alone, but the Argentinian's stats are padded by 6 penalty goals where Suarez had none.  If you consider the six penalties that Ronaldo converted, Suarez is much better overall.  He already trumps the defending Ballon D'or winner in nearly every category, but take away spot kicks and CR7 is not even part of the conversation.

Speaking of the Ballon D'or, if Suarez can continue his scorching pace, Messi should be the only other player considered.  How they and their teams perform in the World Cup is probably on what the award will hinge.  Both are off to great starts, but Uruguay will have to beat Italy if they want to advance to the knock-out stages.  Suarez will probably once again have to prove his 'world class' if they are to do so.