Skrtel or Sakho? Who is better to partner Lovren?

Despite being far apart on the ethnic field, Martin Skrtel and Mamadou Sakho play an eerily similar style of football on the pitch.  The Slovakian and the Senegalese-Frenchman are both efficient passers, each posting around 90% last season and this campaign so far, neither are very committal to tackling, preferring to play a 'stand-offish', marking style of defense, and both like to get forward, though Sakho does this much more to my liking.  If I had to give an edge to either concerning attacking and/or defending, I'd say Skrtel is actually better on both sides of the ball despite Sakho being more 'creative'.

That is not the question though, it is whom is better to partner our Croatian juggernaut, Dejan Lovren.  To do that, let's take a look at Lovren's style of play.  Our Number Six is not as good a passer as his fellow centre backs, but has improved from last season when he played for Southampton.  So far he's posted an 88.5% pass completion percentage compared to 82% last year, which is even more impressive when you consider he's averaged 17 more pass attempts per a match this season so far.  That probably has more to do with the fact that the Saints averaged nearly 2 more yards per pass and attempted 14 more long balls per match, finishing second in the league with 70 attempts on average. Lovren is also more likely to 'go to ground' and attempt a tackle than Skrtel or Sakho.  He has completed 11 successful tackles this season so far while the other two have 3 combined.

One could argue match-ups should play a part, but there are two great examples from this season that make that argument invalid.  Skrtel paired Lovren at the Etihad which Liverpool lost 3-1 despite playing well.  Unfortunately, City played slightly better even though two of their goals were due to defensive mishap, none the fault of Skrtel though.  In fact, I re-watched an extended highlights video of that match and noticed a lot of friction and distrust displayed between Lovren and Skrtel, but ultimately, the first two goals were mostly the fault of Lovren being out of position.

During the build-up of the first goal, Lovren is more concerned with whether Skrtel is marking Dzeko instead of covering 'his' area, the left side of the box.

As the above still shot from the match shows, Lovren was not in the best possible position and was unable to provide proper coverage for Moreno and Gerrard.  In a panic, he heads the ball right to a surging Jovetic.  Sure, Moreno could have done better to clear, but he shouldn't had to in the first place.

Here is a still shot just before the second goal:

Jovetic has the ball and is about to release both Zabaleta and Nasri with an excellent back heel pass through.  Lovren is way out of position to begin with, why he is so far forward is beyond me.  Jovetic has his back to the goal, which for him to gain possession and right himself would take more than enough time for Henderson and/or Gerrard to collapse on him, so Lovren had no business being there.  Once the break starts, Skrtel had no choice but provide coverage on the left, leaving Johnson to mark Dzeko.  Jovetic sneaked in behind, found himself all alone on the right, and the rest, they say, is history.  Had Lovren stayed behind Zabaleta, he would have most likely been able to clear the ball or at least disrupt play enough to prevent the goal, plus Skrtel would have been able to stay more central and allow Johnson to pick up Jovetic.  One could argue that Lovren was trying to set an offside trap, but if that is so, he's doing a terrible job of communicating it to his fellow defenders.

In the City match, a Skrtel-Lovren pairing was ideal being that Lovren is usually better at maintaining his position than Sakho.  Unfortunately he failed to do so.  For Villa, a Sakho-Lovren pairing is more ideal because Villa is dreadful and adding another player on attack seemingly can only help.  Unfortunately it did not, but once again Lovren was somewhat at fault for the goal.  He was beaten by Senderos on the corner, had Manquillo's arm not blocked the attempt, there was a chance of it getting past Lallana and going in.  It instead fell to Agbonlahor.  I would say Balotelli and Moreno's inability to clear it before it got to Senderos was more of an issue than Lovren's marking.

It would have been nice to have Skrtel for Ludogorets.  I can't see him getting caught out of position as much as Sakho and Lovren did.  I didn't expect to draw this conclusion, but after looking over the stats and watching match highlights, maybe the best pairing for Lovren is a seat on the bench.  The only thing he brings so far is tackling and errors.  That may be harsh, but it is clear he has positioning and communication issues, certainly with Skrtel on the latter.  Maybe Rodgers should give him a couple of matches off and some time to think about his latest performances.  I think he's a great defender and player in general, but it seems like he's trying to do too much and it's hurting the side.

Liverpool 0, Aston Villains 1: 'Character'? Senderos should be suspended

In continuing some of the worst football seen in the Premiership in years, Aston Villa pulled off a criminal win against Liverpool on Saturday.  The farcical display was highlighted by four, yes, four off-the-ball assaults by Phillip Senderos on Mario Balotelli.  Somehow all four officials missed them all.  Oh yes, there are FOUR officials, not just one or two or three, but four.  Once again the Prem cheapens it's product with a laughable display of officiating and then blatantly ignores the 'ignoring'.  Yes, the refs saw all four fouls, if that was Sakho on Rooney, the Frenchman would have been sent off immediately after the first assault and then probably fined and suspended.  Save the lies, misdirections, and double-speak for the idiots who will fork over any amount of money to feel like a winner because their lives are so pathetically indulged in vicarious behavior and will never analyze anything beyond where they defecate.  If the Premier League truly cared about racism, they certainly failed to show it at Anfield on Saturday.  If the Premier League truly cared about putting an honest product on the pitch, they would never allow contentious acts of 'character' be displayed one time, yet alone four.  Welcome to the hyperreality, you just got a front row seat.

With my diatribe out of the way, Liverpool did not deserve to win either, but they certainly should not have lost.  They dominated nearly every aspect of the match except thuggery.  Lo and behold had the home side acted in the manner that the Brum bruisers did, cards would have been in abundance.  The fact that LFC received more cards than the visitors is laughable in itself.  Amazingly the Claret and Blue got called for more fouls though, a whole one that is, and 19 total fouls in the entire match?  Maybe the refs didn't see anything in the match, maybe they were just too busy thinking about their summer homes.

As for individual performances, outside of the amazing diplay of 'character' by Phillip Senderos, who probably thinks by 'character', he means a cartoon character.  Maybe he thought he was Elmer Fudd and Balotelli was Bugs Bunny. Who knows, who cares.  Getting on with it, Adam Lallana has a long way to go to justify his £26m transfer fee, 80% passing is just not going to get it done.  It was technically his first match so he gets a pass, this time.  The bottom line is, we had an 89% pass success rate, we moved the ball down the pitch with ease, but once we got in the opponent's third, we failed to find space, failed to make space, and failed to take advantage of the few true shot opportunities afforded to us by the 'negative' football being displayed by Villa.

Once in a while, especially early on in matches, we need to take ambitious chances to score spectacular goals and once we are a threat from scoring outside the box, it'll open up the pitch like magic.  Sterling, Coutinho, and Henderson are going to have to 'thump' it from distance and try to at least force a save from the opposition keeper.  Maybe Balotelli sneaks and puts away on the rebound, you never know.  It's nice to have players that want to help their teammates score, but one too many passes is becoming habitual among our players and getting us no where.  Sometimes being selfish is best for the team.

There is little logic to Saturday's result.  Aston Villa basically planned on the nil-nil draw and got a lucky result.  They had no intentions of trying to play an up-and-down match with a side that would have abused them for doing so.  Still, Liverpool is going to have to deal with this a lot this season, very few other than the top five or six clubs have the firepower to get into a free-for-all.  Coutinho, Sterling, Henderson, and Lallana are going to have to step up, take chances and quit going for the obvious pass all the time.  Failure to do so is going to result in a long season and Balotelli getting assaulted often.

Lazar to get off the Markovic? Liverpool to win 6-0? What the markets say...

Aston Villa to win at 11/1 seems like a decent gamble and 45.92% of all bettors agree.  Looks like a sucker bet to me and Liverpool at 1/3 isn't worth the return.  5/1 for a draw seems to high, expect Liverpool to win.

To win:
Aston Villa	11/1	45.92%
Liverpool	1/3	43.78%
Draw	5/1	10.30%

A lot of people seem to think Sterling will be the first to score and there's a nice pay off if they're right, but if I was a betting man, I'd go with Balotelli or even Gerrard.  Hopefully someone doesn't bet on Studge.

First goalscorer:
Sterling	6/1	39.02%
Balotelli	15/4	24.39%
Weimann	16/1	7.32%
Gerrard	8/1	4.88%
Coutinho	10/1	4.88%
Markovic	7/1
Lambert	7/2
Agbonlahor	14/1
Borini	6/1
Henderson	10/1
Sturridge	14/5

The market is giving Aston Villa much of a chance when it comes to the final tally.  The lowest odds for the visiting side to win is 1-0 and that's at 25/1.  Liverpool at 12/1 for 4-0 looks intriguing and a tiny wager on 6-0 at 50/1 wouldn't hurt.  Apparently most bettors think Villa will double their average goals per a match and score twice against Liverpool.  It's possible, just not very probable.  

Correct score:
Liverpool	4-2	40/1	13.89%
Liverpool	3-0	17/2	11.11%
Liverpool	3-1	11/1	8.33%
Liverpool	2-0	6/1
Liverpool	4-0	12/1
Liverpool	5-0	25/1
Liverpool	6-0	50/1

Bettors overwhelmingly think Balotelli will score at some point in the match and the 19/20 pay off shows it.  Even Markovic with a 21/10 return is not that great off odds.  Henderson at 4/1 or Lovren at 6/1 look like good wagers to me.

Anytime scorer:
Balotelli	19/20	71.43%
Lambert	6/5	9.52%
Bent	6/1	4.76%
Henderson	4/1
Lovren	6/1
Markovic	21/10

Balotelli to score 3 is awfully low at 20/1 and there's a great pay-off if either Markovic gets hot or free-kicks and penalties come into play for Gerrard.

Score hat-trick:
Balotelli	20/1
Markovic	80/1
Gerrard	50/1

Balotelli to score a brace is not that great of a payoff either, Markovic and Gerrard seem most likely again but the return is much less.  Henderson at 25/1 here seems like a decent wager.

Two or more goals:
Balotelli	9/2
Markovic	14/1
Gerrard	12/1

Bettors and bookmakers agree that Sterling will be Man of the Match, but since the pay-off isn't that great and there usually isn't much money bet on these kind of perks, it could happen.  Vlaar at 22/1 though, yeah, good luck.  The best bet is probably Balotelli at 6/1, but I like Henderson at 12/1 and Markovic as a long shot at 14/1 though the return isn't that great.

Man of the match:
Sterling	4/1	37.50%
Vlaar	22/1	25.00%
Balotelli	6/1
Gerrard	4/1
Henderson	12/1
Markovic	14/1

Finally, who do you think will most likely get shown a card?  Yeah, me too, and at 3/1 he isn't even the favorite.  Hutton and Lucas are, which isn't that surprising.

Shown a card:
Balotelli	3/1
Hutton	7/4
Lucas	7/4

The Villan to watch out for on Saturday

Aston Villa is a dreadful, mundane side.  Currently they rank as the third worst attacking side and are second worst on defence, so how have they managed seven points in their first three matches?  Well, other than being quite fortuitous, they rely heavily on their five best players setting up shop in front of the net.

The Birmingham club lives and dies by the performances and defensive cohesiveness of Guzan, Senderos, Vlaar, Westwood, and Delph.  Vlaar is the heart while Delph is the engine and Westwood is the brains of the operation.  Senderos is there just to take care of the leftovers and Guzan is the mouth, his job is to keep everyone talking.  So if you want to stop Villa from initiating attack, take Westwood out of the picture.  If Westwood can't get the ball out to Richardson or N'Zogbia or is unable to break into the Liverpool's third by himself, the Villans will curl up and die a slow death.  Delph will occasionally make a dangerous run forward, but that leaves his side thoroughly exposed on the counter, something in which Liverpool are quite adept, so he'll probably be cautious to do so on Saturday.

For Liverpool to score, they are going to have to penetrate the invisible fortress maintained by the five aforementioned Villa players.  Our best bet is to have Sterling or Coutinho or Markovic or even Suso bring the ball up on the left and go straight at Alan Hutton, if he's not already behind them after a futile attempt at defence or attack.  They are going to have to draw out Senderos and pass the ball back across in the middle to whomever is rushing forward or, God forbid, play the cross game, attempting cross after cross hoping to find Balotelli or Lambert in a welcomed spot in the box.  The latter isn't really Rodger's approach so hopefully we won't resort to such mindless Van Gaalish/'European' tactics.

Villa will rely more on Delph's athleticism to stop Liverpool's attack, which means Westwood will be relied even more on attack.  I highly doubt he'll score, but he is their best 'specialized' passer, though no where near the class of a Gerrard.  Still Liverpool need to respect his abilities and with Skrtel out, hopefully Sakho won't make too many of his runs into the opponent's half.  Lucas cannot continue his horrible form so far this season either, but at least he's more likely to stay back.  In the end. I think Liverpool will prevail, but a nice old fashion whipping would be a much-needed comfort.

Three weeks of hell? Or has the Fixture God shown mercy?

Liverpool play seven matches in three weeks starting with Villa at Anfield on Saturday.  The thing is, all seven are winnable, even with the injuries we have sustained recently.  The 2-0-1 record, 7 points, and current third place standing on the table are flattering to deceive for the Villans.  To say they've been lucky would be the understatement of the season by far.  They were manhandled at Stoke in their first match, but somehow managed a 1-0 win. They needed a red card by Newcastle to get a 0-0 result at home in week two, and barely managed to hold on against Hull at Villa Park two weekends ago.  Karma has to catch up with them at some point and history says it could very well come Saturday.

Next up we host Ludogorets on Tuesday, our easiest Champions League fixture by far.  I can see Rodgers going with a 'weaker' side in this match, hopefully Suso will play a part.  I don't know if he'll go as far as starting Borini, but he could make the bench.  Then we go to Upton Park to take on the Hammers, where Liverpool has won 7 of the last 9 matches and Rodgers has never lost to Allardyce or West Ham.   The London club has the sixth most efficient defence, but sixth worst attacking efficiency, who knows how that could change when they face the equally volatile Hull City on Monday.

Three days later, Liverpool host Middlesborough in the League Cup.  We should definitely see an 'experimental' side here.  If Markovic hasn't broken his duck by then, this will be his best opportunity.  Liverpool have not lost to the Boro at Anfield since March 6, 1976, 38 years ago and before I was born.  The two have not met since 2009, when the then Premier League side beat Liverpool 2-0 at Riverside.  I remember the dismal affair, Nabil El Zhar started for us, Xabi scored an own goal, and Tuncay sealed it in the 63rd minute.  LFC dominated the match in every aspect, winning 9 corners to Boro's 2, having 16 shots, 7 on-target to the home side's 5 and 3 respectively, 84.7% to 65.6% passing, and 72% to 28% possession, but just couldn't score.  It was one of the matches looked back on as costing Liverpool the title that season and baffled many as the Reds had just beat Real Madrid 1-0 at the Bernabeu three days earlier.

One of the harder matches of the lot is Liverpool hosting Everton the Saturday following the Boro fixture.  I'm not really that worried as much as I probably should be when it comes to hosting the lesser Liverpool club.  They have not beaten us in four years, at Anfield in 19 years, and how suspect their defence has been this season, we should be able to get the goals needed for three points.  Any result less than a win will be unacceptable and detrimental to any chance of winning the League.

If a visit from the Blue side of Merseyside isn't the hardest fixture of this bunch, the trip to Basel four days later definitely is.  Kicking off October at the defending Swiss Super League Champions in our second CL fixture isn't the worst of scenarios, but even if our squad isn't as injury depleted as it is now, we will still have fatigued players.  That'll be six matches in 19 days, only Man City have the depth to maintain a high level of football during that kind of run.  The good news is, we've never lost to Basel, that bad news is, we've never beaten Basel and we've only ever played them twice.  The 'Rotblau' currently sit atop the SSL table, are unbeaten in 7 matches with 6 wins, and lead the league in goals scored with 18.  I still think we can get a win here, but will not be too aggrieved if we only manage a draw.  Wins at home are a must in CL group play and that should be enough to get us through to the elimination round.

Finally, we end the Shine on Harvest Moon tour with a visit from West Brom.  The Baggies have baffled us the past few years, a ship that seemed to be righted with our 4-1 dismantling of the West Midlands club, but a title costly 1-1 result at the Hawthorns last February rekindled the recent pain. Before winning at Anfield in two of the last three meetings, WBA hadn't won there since 1965.  Liverpool are 3-1-4 versus West Brom in their last 8 meetings in all comps, but the Baggies have the least efficient defence in the league by quite a distance.  We should be able to end this run with three points as long as we don't beat ourselves.

Will Liverpool 'throttle' Villa at Anfield? Will Lazar get off the 'Markovic'? Inquiring minds just exploded.

Liverpool are 13-7-5 in league matches at home versus Aston Villa since 1989, but only 1-2-2 in the last five seasons.  They went through a similar run from 1998 to 2003 when they also went 1-2-2.  Take away those two 'slumps', they are 11-3-1 the past 25 years.  Hopefully their current difficulty against the Birmingham club will come to an end after five matches as well.  The last time Liverpool finished 2nd, they lost to Villa at home the following season in the third round, a 1-3 defeat that featured a Lucas Leiva own goal, a rare Curtis Davies header, and a penalty awarded on a Gerrard foul, converted by Ashley Young.

Liverpool is 6-3-1 at home in round 4 EPL matches, their only loss being 2-1 at the hands of Tottenham 21 years ago, August 25, 1993.  A brace by Teddy 'the dirty Sheriff' Sheringham bettered an early clinical finish from new boy Nigel Clough.  The only other time they have ever met Villa in this scenario is 2000-01 with LFC prevailing 3-1.  A first half hat-trick from then 20-year-old and not yet loathed, Michael Owen, was all the home side needed.

Villa is 5-2-5 as visitors in the round four fixture in Prem history, not exactly push-overs.  In fact, they have never lost by more than a goal and have only allowed multiple goals in three of those 12 fixtures.  They've only allowed 3 goals once, an exciting clash with Spurs in 1997-98 that resulted in a 3-2 Tottenham win.  After falling behind 0-1 in the sixth minute, Dwight 'New York, New' Yorke equalized in the 27th minute and Stan 'less is' Collymore gave them the lead in the 68th, but Spurs came roaring back to win on a 77th goal from Ruel 'what the' Fox.

Finally, the previous season 2nd place finisher is 19-2-1 at home against the previous season 15th place finisher in Premier League history.  The only time a 15th has beaten a 2nd at home was in 1996-97, when Sheffield Wednesday overcame a 13th minute penalty from Alan Shearer to win 2-1.  Short-time Villa player and Pompey 'legend' Guy Whittingham scored the winning goal.  The home side in this fixture has won the last 11, outscoring the visitors by a whopping 28 to 4.  In fact, the host club has only allowed 8 goals in all 22 fixtures with 15 clean sheets and only once allowing multiple goals.  Liverpool has twice been involved and unfortunately was part of one of the draws, a 0-0 result versus Everton in 2002-03.

So what do all these numbers say?  Even without Sturridge and Villa's staunch record on the road in round four, Liverpool should prevail. I hope Rodgers gives Markovic a start and if he does, I fully expect him to get off the mark.  I'll go out on a limb and say Liverpool 3-0 with goals from Lazar, Balotelli, and Sterling.

Fantasy picks for match day 3: Newcastle, Villa, Swansea, West Ham & City are the way to go

Keepers
This week: Tim Krul (Newcastle)

Alternates: Brad Guzan (Villa), Fabianski (Swansea), Hart (Man City), De Gea (Man U), Robert Green (QPR).

Long term: De Gea, Krul, Forster (Southampton), Mannone (Sunderland)

Defenders
This week: Alan Hutton (Aston Villa), Dummett (Newcastle), Kompany (Man City), Armat (Swansea)

Alternates: Vlaar (Villa), Coloccini, Williamson (Newcastle), Williams, Rangel (Swansea), Ferdinand (QPR)

Long term: Dummett, Coloccini (Newcastle), Fonte (Southampton), O'Shea (Sunderland), Blackett, Jones (Man U)

Midfielders
This week: Barton (QPR), Nasri (Man City), Sigurdsson (Swansea), Cabella (Newcastle)

Alternates: Delph, Westwood (Villa), Colback, Sissoko (Newcastle), Ki Sung-yeung (Swansea), Silva, Toure (Man City), Noble, Kouyate (West Ham)

Long term: Valencia (Man U), Larsson (Sunderland), Colback, Cabella, Sissoko (Newcastle), Schniederlin (Southampton), Gerrard, Sterling (Liverpool)

Forwards
This week: Bony (Swansea), Riviere (Newcastle)

Alternates: Dzeko, Jovetic, Aguero (Man City), Cole (Newcastle), Rooney, Van Persie (Man U)

Long term: Pelle, Long (Southampton), Wickham, Fletcher (Sunderland), Sturridge (Liverpool), Riviere, De Jong, Gouffran (Newcastle)

Pay close attention to transfer news as some may not be with their club come match time.

Second place has been a 'bad omen' for Liverpool

In the 22 seasons of Premier League history, 11 times the previous season second-place finisher has won the league.  For those of you who are mathematically-challenged, that's 50% of the time.  Unfortunately, this has happened the last two seasons, but never three seasons in a row.  Also, Liverpool have finished 2nd twice before, in 2001-02 and 2008-09, but faultered to fifth and seventh in their respective following seasons.

In 1992-93, the inaugural Premiership season, Aston Villa finished second.  Featuring Liverpool greats Ray Houghton and Steve Staunton, as well as a young Dwight Yorke, the Villans lead the table late into March before only managing 10 points in the final 8 matches.  It was their best campaign in a dozen years and their best since.  They would finish 10th the following year.

The worst finish for a previous season second place side was Newcastle in 1997-98.  In fact, Newcastle had finished runner-up to Man United for two years in a row.  Oddly enough, the Magpies were managed by Kenny Dalglish and featured John Barnes, Ian Rush, and Dalglish's son, Paul.  John Barnes led them in league goals with 6, while Rush struggled for playing time against Alan Shearer.  Dalglish would be sacked two matches into the 98-99 season.

In 2011-12, Chelsea fell victim to the 'Liverpool curse'.  With Fernando Torres and Raul Meireles in their squad (as well as Daniel Sturridge, but he doesn't count), they went from 2nd to 6th, their worst finish under Abramovich and in ten seasons.  It lead to Andres Villas-Boas being sacked in March 2012 and Robert Di Matteo being appointed caretaker manager.  Though they did win the FA Cup, 2-1 over Liverpool might I add, and Champions League that year.

Not even the 2008-09 Chelsea side that went from runner-up to third escapes the 'jinx', though the link is minor.  Former albeit brief LFC striker, Nicolas Anelka, lead the Blues in scoring, both in the league and in all competitions, but couldn't prevent their third place finish.

It's not all black cats and broken mirrors though, Liverpool have won the First Division five times (75-76, 78-79, 85-86, 87-88, & 89-90) after finishing runners-up the previous year.  Though that only makes it 5 league titles after 13 second place finishes.

Do desperate times call for Christian Benteke?

Last summer, Christian Benteke was one of the most sought after strikers in the Prem.  Chelsea and Tottenham both made approaches to Villa for his services, but apparently were turned away by a ridiculous £25m transfer fee.  Turns out the London clubs played it smart as the Belgian striker endured a injury-riddled sophomore slump in the Prem.  Injuries to his hip and knee as well as a ruptured Achilles tendon limited his pitch time to just 24 starts and 2 substitutes.  He also further exposed his biggest weaknesses, passing and ball control.

Last season and the season before, Benteke posted true turnover index 90s of 22.2 and 20.7, primarily due to poor passing.  Those are some of, if not the, worst numbers I have ever seen.  The fact that he declined in his second season from his first is even more alarming.  His passing is even less impressive, going from a dismal 64.89% is inaugural season to an abysmal 60.73% last year.  At least he isn't passing backwards for percentage sake, posting 46.7% two seasons ago and an improved 45.5% in his second season.  Maybe he should do a little more back-passing to save from turning over the ball.

He did make some positive contributions though.  For a player who isn't a great passer, he does create chances, nearly two every 90 minutes last season and 1.69 the previous.  His non-penalty goal scoring rate of 0.44 every 90 minutes and 0.64 goal created per 90 the last two seasons combined aren't unimpressive either.  Probably the oddest stat is his long balls per 90 of 1.19 at a 72.4% success rate, for a forward-lying player he's pretty good at finding others at far lengths.

So should Benteke even be considered an option? Well, the negatives are apparent, though I think his passing would improve on a more talented side and one that plays a less negative-style of football.  The turnovers may have something to do with him being 23-years-old, but the fact he showed no improvement from first to second season is worrisome.  He is also coming off a very serious injury, but apparently his recovery is going well. I seem to making excuses to sign him, so I'll stop there.  He should have to be a bargain basement deal or even a free to be considered at any point, or we really are that desperate.

James Milner: A sad waste of talent and probably now a waste of funds

Following his break-out season at Aston Villa in 2009-10, James Milner seemed destined to do great things, then he signed with Man City.  Instead of developing into a top player for Villa and possibly becoming captain of the Brum club, he has settled for a secondary role at City where he finds himself starting on the bench in 48.9% (68 of 139) of matches he is available and of those, he didn't even make the pitch in 35.2% (24 of 68).

He has won two league titles, an FA Cup, and a League Cup at City though, and has shown what it means to be a true team player, even at the expense of his own evolution. It's admirable in some ways, but I doubt Milner envisioned being a squad player when he originally signed with Man City.  His last season with Villa, at the age of 24, he was finally coming into his own:

g	a	ch	npg90	gc90	cc90	ap90
7	12	69	0.11	0.54	1.96	0.34
pass%	lb%	tb%	cr%	sdrp90	sacc%	shot%
75.6	58.2	35.7	32.6	0.71	34.8	10.6
intp90	clrp90	drbp90	bs90	tp90	adw90	adw%
1.8	0.91	0.97	0.4	2.64	0.43	28.8
ccv	TTI90	gsp90	gap90	gop90	tgop	gopd
17.4	16.9	1.39	1.05	0.34	0.34	0

First, the bad, his 16.9 true turnover index per 90 minutes played is unimpressive to say the least.  He has improved since joining City, reaching a career best of 10.1 in 2011-12 and a 11.4 rate last season, that's on par with Henderson (9.7), Gerrard (10.9), Coutinho (11), and Sterling (12.1). Also, for a player who is characterized as 'strong' when it comes to aerial duels, his won per 90 of 0.43 at a 28.8% success rate is well below the league average of 1.46 at 50%.

His 12 assists that season was third best in the league and his chance created value of 17.4 was well above the league average of 9.2. While normally a goals on pitch difference of 0 is nothing to brag about, in his case it shows that he WAS the team.  Despite losing Gareth Barry the summer prior, Villa still improved their point totals and goal difference from the previous season, and the season after Milner joined City, the Villans plummeted to 9th place, a -24 goal difference, and accumulated 16 less points.

For Liverpool to consider a transfer for the 28-year-old, a what-have-you-done-lately approach is what matters.  Here are his stats from last season where he made only 12 starts, 19 sub-ins, for a total of 1375 minutes:

g	a	ch	npg90	gc90	cc90	ap90
1	3	29	0.07	0.26	1.9	0.2
pass%	bp%	lb%	tb%	cr%	sdrbp90	sdrb%	sacc%	shot%
84	46.4	60	66.6	19.1	1.18	43.9	24	4
intp90	clrp90	drbp90	bs90	tp90	tack%	adw90	adw%
0.65	1.44	1.11	0.06	2.03	50.9	1.05	35.6
ccv	TTI90	gsp90	gap90	gop90	tgop	gopd
10.3	11.4	2.22	1.24	0.98	1.71	-0.73

A regression to say the least, especially considering the quality of his teammates.  His passing has improved, as has his turnover rate, but not much else, and his goals on pitch difference is alarming.  For a midfielder known for playing solid defence, it certainly doesn't look like he's a much of a factor in preventing opponents from scoring.

Milner could have been a legend at Villa, but instead he rots away on the City bench with opportunities becoming more scarce as younger, more creative options surround him and his club have all the funds in the world to go after more if needs be.  The problem is he'll find himself in a similar situation if Liverpool acquire him.  His versatility does play into it a little since he can cover for Glen Johnson at RB, but he won't be much of an improvement.  It really comes down to how cheap City will let him go, anything more than £8m has to be a deal-breaker.

Why Rodgers should buy Bertrand

To get sacked and go on holiday.  I have little doubt that buying the Chelsea left back for his estimated valuation of £7m would be on par with buying Aspas for £7.5m or Borini for £10.4m.  Here are last season's stats for Bertrand, who spent the majority on loan at Villa, our Jon Flanagan, and the guy we should sign on a free from Heracles of the Eredivisie, Australian Jason Davidson.

	Bertrand	Flanagan	Davidson
age	25*	21	22
app(subs)	17	23	30
mins	1449	1890	2669
goals	0	1	2
assist	0	1	3
chances	4	13	32
npgp90	0	0.05	0.06
gcp90	0	0.1	0.17
ccp90	0.25	0.62	1.08
pass%	76.4	83.7	76.5
bp%	38.4	42.6	31.4
sacc%	50	42.9	38.5
shot%	0	14.3	15.4
tp90	1.9	3.8	1.7
tack %	60.5	45.7	51.2
intp90	0.9	1.9	2.2
clrp90	2.1	3.6	5.2
dribpp90	0.4	1.9	0.9
bsp90	0.4	0.2	0.5
TTI90	10.2	9.2	7.6

Bertrand pales in comparison to Flanagan and Davidson, in fact, other than his tackle success percentage, he's quite unimpressive.  More damning is that before joining Villa they had 23 points from their first 20 matches, but in the 16 of the remaining 18 matches that Bertrand played, they garnered only 12 points and won the fixture against Chelsea which could not feature him. 

Just don't do it Rodgers.  I read somewhere that the argument was how Rodgers has 'righted' Sturridge and could do the same for Bertrand.  That's a bunch of crock, when Sturridge is allowed to play in his natural position up front, as he did on loan at Bolton, he's highly productive, it has little to do with Rodgers 'righting' anything.  BR should be getting Davidson's rep on the phone as soon as possible before he finalizes his deal with Fulham.  That Felix Magath, he's never won anything.