Mile Jedinak: A defensive solution on the cheap

With the Lovren deal apparently on the rocks, Caulker off the table, and little other prospects in the wind, how about an inexpensive, Premiership-proven alternative, albeit temporary? What about Mile Jedinak?  Yes, I'm aware he is a defensive midfielder, but versatility only adds to his intrigue.

The soon-to-be-30-year-old Australian international had quite an impressive season last year for Crystal Palace.  One could write a book about the Eagles' wild ride of a 2013-14 campaign, from dead last on 7 points in week 13 to finishing 11th on 45, and we don't have to mention the 9 minutes of chaos at Selhurst Park that all but ended Liverpool's title hopes.  How Palace easily survived by scoring a mere 33 goals is a minor miracle to say the least and a massive tribute to a defence lead by Jedinak.

Crystal Palace didn't play 'smart' defence, they played a brutal-style that relied on individual effort.  Unfortunately that will never win you a league title since it is too draining on the players, a possession and passing-based defence will always win there, but it's admirable to say the least.  Per league ranking last season, the London club was first in the Prem in clearances, interceptions, and least costly defensive errors, second in tackles and least overall defensive errors, fifth in successful tackle percentage, and 8th in blocked shots. Their average ranking in those categories was 2.86, the next closest was Hull at 6.86.

Jedinak was a beast, posting impressive numbers in defensive areas as well as in aerial duels (league averages in blue below):

adw90	adw%	t90	tk%	int90	clr90	bs90
4.49	70.8	3.57	53.4	3.73	3.76	0.46
1.61	50	1.75	46.9	1.25	3.04	0.30

His biggest weakness is his passing, but in his defence, he did play for the worst passing side in the EPL last season.  His 71.9% passing rate was still slightly better than his team's 71.1% and he did complete 121 of 206 long balls for a 58.7% rate.  As is the norm, his passing would improve with more skilled teammates. He also doesn't have blinding pace, which is why his future is better suited at centre back.

A lot comes in to play when considering Jedinak: age, fee, and would he want to come?  He would be losing playing time, but he would get a chance at Champions League football.  Also he would have the opportunity to play for one of the bigger clubs on Merseyside (that's called sarcasm).  If Pulis would regretfully let him go for £5m, Rodgers would be crazy not to jump at it.  Jedinak is an excellent defender, which will translate well at either defensive midfielder or centre back for at least 3-4 seasons.

Individual defensive stats, for the most part, are irrelevant

Recently when I was researching centre back prospects, I started to notice a trend.  It appeared that individualized defensive stats such as tackles, interceptions, clearances, and blocked shots had little relevance in regards to team defensive performance.  Though not completely irrelevant and in the very least a sign of hard work and involvement in a match, it just does not reflect on the scoresheet.

Ranking team defense ultimately comes down to goals allowed, four of the Prem clubs that finished the season in the top five last year, also finished in the top four in goals allowed.  Liverpool was the only top five club not to, they were 8th.  So the key is to figure out what stats are most important in goal prevention, but it's not that easy.  There should be a stats called 'turnover produced' and/or 'chance prevented', but what exactly would that entail and how would it be measured?

There are team stats that already exist that should carry more weight: shots conceded, possession, and passing are the most important in preventing chances for the opposition. These are better described as 'anti-attack' stats instead of defensive ones, but they still strive to accomplish the same objective. There are two interesting samples to discuss from last season's Prem, Man City, who won the league and was 2nd in least goals allowed, and Crystal Palace, who were far and away the best defensive-minded individuals thrown on the pitch falsely called 'a team'.

First, I set up a table taking the rank of each Prem club in each respective stat.  Those stats are goals allowed, non-error goals allowed, shots conceded, tackles, tackle %, clearances, interceptions, blocked shots, defensive errors, critical defensive errors, possession, and passing %.  I then broke that table down into two, one with only non-individual team stats and the other with just individual team stats.

Overall Table

Non-Individual Team Table

Individual Combined Table

Man City finished 7th on the overall table, 1st on non-individual team stats, and dead last (20th) on the individual combined table.  If that's not convincing enough for you, Crystal Palace tied with Chelsea for 1st on the overall table, was 16th on the non-individual table, and finished 1st by a mile on the individual combined table.  In fact, Palace had an avg rank of 2.86 on the ict, a full four points ahead of second place Hull and 11.71 average places higher than Man City.

Crystal Palace finished 11th in the table, scoring only 33 goals (2nd worst overall) and ranked dead last in both passing and possession.  Being that Tony Pulis is still their manager and they haven't brought in any significant attacking transfers, I don't see that changing much next season.  Meanwhile Man City lead the league in goals scored and was 2nd in both passing and possession.  Maybe the old adage 'the best defense is a good offense' rings true.