Showing posts with label statistics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label statistics. Show all posts

Thursday, September 25, 2014

Lovren back in top ten overall, but is Per Mertesacker the most underrated footballer in England?

Players must have played at least 300 minutes to qualify.  Efficiency ratings are how likely a positive outcome will occur while that player is either in possession (attacking) or reacting to opposition possession (defensive).

He's baaaaaaaaaaccckkkk.  Yaya Toure retakes the top spot on attack, but only really because Nasri came up 24 minutes short.  Gerrard is Liverpool's highest rated player at 19th.

Attacking efficiency ranking
Y. Toure0.829
C. Fàbregas0.814
P. Mertesacker0.806
M. Schneiderlin0.792
E. Capoue0.786
Juan Mata0.783
F. Coloccini0.783
S. Distin0.774
M. Özil0.770
G. Barry0.768

Per Mertesacker has sky-rocketed to the top of the defence rankings following a few solid performances.  Lovren is 7th and rising.

Defensive efficiency ranking
P. Mertesacker0.948
Curtis Davies0.934
P. Jagielka0.921
R. Ferdinand0.920
S. Dann0.916
S. Distin0.914
D. Lovren0.914
M. Demichelis0.914
John Terry0.912
F. Coloccini0.904

Sir Per goes top as Lovren breaks into the top ten overall.
Overall efficiency ranking
P. Mertesacker0.877
S. Distin0.844
F. Coloccini0.843
Y. Toure0.833
J. O'Shea0.832
E. Capoue0.830
M. Schneiderlin0.830
P. Jagielka0.828
T. Blackett0.817
D. Lovren0.806

Super super Senderos is no longer in the top ten of players most valuable to their club efficiency-wise, but he has so much 'character'.  John O'Shea continues to be a head and shoulders above his Sunderland teammates.

Most valuable to their club efficiency-wise
J. O'Shea0.197
D. Hammond0.194
S. N'Zonzi0.194
R. Ferdinand0.180
F. Coloccini0.178
David Jones0.174
Andy King0.172
Dean Marney0.163
P. Mertesacker0.159
M. Schneiderlin0.153

Leaders, notes, and squibs:
- Chucky 'Disco Biscuits' Fabregas leads the league in both assists (6) and chances created (18)
- Aaron Ramsey is top with 558 touches, the second most is Capoue with 501
- Eden Hazard has 31 successful dribbles, more than twice as many as any other player, Lamela is second with 14, while Raheem Sterling is 3rd with 13
- Mile Jedinak leads the league with 30 tackles, while the irrepressible Morgan Schniederlin is second with 23
- Curtis Davies leads all players with 62 clearances



Thursday, July 24, 2014

Steven Gerrard, King of the APEs

Attacking Possession Efficiency that is.  I haven't been posting much lately because I've been working on a lot of stats projects.  One of these is APE.  APE measures how efficient a player is in possession.  It takes in account all positive results from possession and gives relative value to these results and then divides this number by total individual possessions.  A goal is given four times the value of a completed pass and shot on goal, while an assist is given double value to a chance created.  Here is Liverpool's top ten APE from last season (the team APE was 0.43563):
Gerrard0.46478
Henderson0.46115
Skrtel0.45314
Coutinho0.45302
Suarez0.45268
Johnson0.44870
Lucas0.44444
Sterling0.43388
Sakho0.42635
Sturridge0.42570

Skrtel was more efficient than Suarez? Yes, because he did more with less possession and turned over the ball much less, which is essentially what this stat measures.

I also created a Positive Possession Result Quality, which gives value to the quality of positive result compared to overall 'stripped-down' results. The top ten PPRQ for Liverpool last year (the team average was 0.52788):

Suarez0.62686
Sturridge0.60947
Sterling0.56348
Coutinho0.54459
Gerrard0.53748
Henderson0.52640
Allen0.51978
Johnson0.51628
Flanagan0.51585
Skrtel0.51147

This basically means that Suarez produced a higher quality result (goal or assist) 62.686% of the time, that shouldn't be much a surprise.  

Thursday, June 19, 2014

Rodgers should be sacked if we pay £26m for Lallana

This is getting ridiculous and though I don't want to believe the story out of the Mirror that we are preparing a £26m bid for Lallana, it would not surprise me if it was true.  I guess I'll have to break down Lallana's potential contribution to our squad with a statistical analyzation of last season and compare him to players on the squad and other potential targets.

LallanaGerrard CanCoutinhoAllenShaqiriFirmino
age26342022242222
app (sub)37(1)33(1)24(5)28(5)15(9)10(7)33
mins308228952190232314437822912
goals913351616
assists613370211
chances68671664182570
ccp901.92.10.72.51.12.92.2
pass %84.685.977.980.686.784.174.7
bp %50.330.639.636.73857.442.1
npg900.260.090.120.190.060.690.44
sacc %41.451.731.428.742.151.741.9
shot %1827.112712.54022.9
TTI9013.910.913.21110.41421.6
tp901.733.12.94.20.82.5
tack%42.352.244.840.9562839.2

Lallana did not come out on top of a single stat.  His back pass % is sub-par for an attacking midfielder, his TTI was second highest and unimpressive, and his tackling was average at best for his position.

If we are just looking for an attacking midfielder, Shaqiri is whom we should go after with Firmino being the alternative.  Shaqiri's 2.9 chances created per 90 minutes is outstanding, as is his non-penalty goals per 90 and shot accuracy.  Firmino really hurts himself with bad passing which ballons his TTI90, but his goals, assists, and ccp90 are all better than Lallana.  The thing is we can get either of these guys for around £15m at most.

If Lallana is worth £26m, Joe Allen at £15m was a steal and Coutinho at £8.6m was the best piece of business possibly ever.  The more I look at Allen's stats, the more impressed I am.  His passing, considering his success rate and low back pass percentage, is much better than Lallana, he holds onto the ball better, and his tackling is light years better than Lallana, but the latter is much more of an attacking midfielder than Allen.  Coutinho is a better overall playmaker and tackler than Lallana, though he could work on his shot selection.

There's just really no need to add Lallana to begin with.  I didn't even look at Sterling, Henderson, or Suso (who I hope gets to stick around).  If Rodgers really thinks we need another play-making midfielder, which with the fixture congestion of the upcoming season might not be a bad idea, why not go for more dynamic players like Shaqiri or Firmino?

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