Friday, September 12, 2014

Lazar to get off the Markovic? Liverpool to win 6-0? What the markets say...

Aston Villa to win at 11/1 seems like a decent gamble and 45.92% of all bettors agree.  Looks like a sucker bet to me and Liverpool at 1/3 isn't worth the return.  5/1 for a draw seems to high, expect Liverpool to win.

To win:
Aston Villa11/145.92%
Liverpool1/343.78%
Draw5/110.30%

A lot of people seem to think Sterling will be the first to score and there's a nice pay off if they're right, but if I was a betting man, I'd go with Balotelli or even Gerrard.  Hopefully someone doesn't bet on Studge.

First goalscorer:
Sterling6/139.02%
Balotelli15/424.39%
Weimann16/17.32%
Gerrard8/14.88%
Coutinho10/14.88%
Markovic7/1
Lambert7/2
Agbonlahor14/1
Borini6/1
Henderson10/1
Sturridge14/5
The market is giving Aston Villa much of a chance when it comes to the final tally.  The lowest odds for the visiting side to win is 1-0 and that's at 25/1.  Liverpool at 12/1 for 4-0 looks intriguing and a tiny wager on 6-0 at 50/1 wouldn't hurt.  Apparently most bettors think Villa will double their average goals per a match and score twice against Liverpool.  It's possible, just not very probable.  

Correct score:
Liverpool4-240/113.89%
Liverpool3-017/211.11%
Liverpool3-111/18.33%
Liverpool2-06/1
Liverpool4-012/1
Liverpool5-025/1
Liverpool6-050/1
Bettors overwhelmingly think Balotelli will score at some point in the match and the 19/20 pay off shows it.  Even Markovic with a 21/10 return is not that great off odds.  Henderson at 4/1 or Lovren at 6/1 look like good wagers to me.

Anytime scorer:
Balotelli19/2071.43%
Lambert6/59.52%
Bent6/14.76%
Henderson4/1
Lovren6/1
Markovic21/10
Balotelli to score 3 is awfully low at 20/1 and there's a great pay-off if either Markovic gets hot or free-kicks and penalties come into play for Gerrard.

Score hat-trick:
Balotelli20/1
Markovic80/1
Gerrard50/1
Balotelli to score a brace is not that great of a payoff either, Markovic and Gerrard seem most likely again but the return is much less.  Henderson at 25/1 here seems like a decent wager.

Two or more goals:
Balotelli9/2
Markovic14/1
Gerrard12/1
Bettors and bookmakers agree that Sterling will be Man of the Match, but since the pay-off isn't that great and there usually isn't much money bet on these kind of perks, it could happen.  Vlaar at 22/1 though, yeah, good luck.  The best bet is probably Balotelli at 6/1, but I like Henderson at 12/1 and Markovic as a long shot at 14/1 though the return isn't that great.

Man of the match:
Sterling4/137.50%
Vlaar22/125.00%
Balotelli6/1
Gerrard4/1
Henderson12/1
Markovic14/1
Finally, who do you think will most likely get shown a card?  Yeah, me too, and at 3/1 he isn't even the favorite.  Hutton and Lucas are, which isn't that surprising.

Shown a card:
Balotelli3/1
Hutton7/4
Lucas7/4

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