Alexis Sanchez for £20m is too good to be true

Though it's hard to believe anyone would offer £26m for Adam Lallana, what's even more unimaginable is Barcelona letting Alexis Sanchez go for only £20m.  Considering that they paid £22m for him from Udinese, it is probably only media-created rubbish.  According to SkySports, Barça has come out and said Sanchez is not for sale.  Juventus apparently offered £12m for him, that's just insulting, but I bet Barcelona would have second thoughts if someone came in for £30m and would probably jump to sell at £35m.  But is he worth it?

The thing about Sanchez is that he's a goal creating machine, not only for himself, but for his teammates as well.  His chances created per 90 is only a 1.8, which is not bad, but his goals created per 90 is a solid 1.1.  For some perspective, Suarez' gcp90 is 1.3 and Sturridge's is the same as Sanchez at 1.1.  Adding the Chilean would be devastating to opponent's defenses as those three could average 3.5 goals created per match just by themselves.

He is also a deadly shooter.  52.8% of shots were on goal and 20% overall found the back of the net.  He bettered both Suarez (44.8%) and Sturridge (42.4%) in the accuracy department, but Sturridge bettered him on shot percentage at 21.2 with Suarez having a very respectable 17.1%.

Sanchez does have his faults though, his back pass percentage is a horrid 63.7%, which means even his meager 79.7% passing rate is not even that good going forward.  Also his TTI90 is 13, which would put him behind only Suarez among regular starters for Liverpool.  Surprisingly though, he's a decent tackler with a per match rate of 2.2 and a success percentage of 47.6.

The bottom line is that Alexis Sanchez will not turn 26 until December, which means he has plenty of productive years in front of him.  I don't think we'll try and buy him, but I don't see how it would hurt to put £25-28m on the table to see if they budge.  We can add Borini and Assaidi to the deal, so we can save face when they sell them to Sunderland and Stoke at a discount.

Rodgers should be sacked if we pay £26m for Lallana

This is getting ridiculous and though I don't want to believe the story out of the Mirror that we are preparing a £26m bid for Lallana, it would not surprise me if it was true.  I guess I'll have to break down Lallana's potential contribution to our squad with a statistical analyzation of last season and compare him to players on the squad and other potential targets.

	Lallana	Gerrard	Can	Coutinho	Allen	Shaqiri	Firmino
age	26	34	20	22	24	22	22
app (sub)	37(1)	33(1)	24(5)	28(5)	15(9)	10(7)	33
mins	3082	2895	2190	2323	1443	782	2912
goals	9	13	3	5	1	6	16
assists	6	13	3	7	0	2	11
chances	68	67	16	64	18	25	70
ccp90	1.9	2.1	0.7	2.5	1.1	2.9	2.2
pass %	84.6	85.9	77.9	80.6	86.7	84.1	74.7
bp %	50.3	30.6	39.6	36.7	38	57.4	42.1
npg90	0.26	0.09	0.12	0.19	0.06	0.69	0.44
sacc %	41.4	51.7	31.4	28.7	42.1	51.7	41.9
shot %	18	27.1	12	7	12.5	40	22.9
TTI90	13.9	10.9	13.2	11	10.4	14	21.6
tp90	1.7	3	3.1	2.9	4.2	0.8	2.5
tack%	42.3	52.2	44.8	40.9	56	28	39.2

Lallana did not come out on top of a single stat.  His back pass % is sub-par for an attacking midfielder, his TTI was second highest and unimpressive, and his tackling was average at best for his position.

If we are just looking for an attacking midfielder, Shaqiri is whom we should go after with Firmino being the alternative.  Shaqiri's 2.9 chances created per 90 minutes is outstanding, as is his non-penalty goals per 90 and shot accuracy.  Firmino really hurts himself with bad passing which ballons his TTI90, but his goals, assists, and ccp90 are all better than Lallana.  The thing is we can get either of these guys for around £15m at most.

If Lallana is worth £26m, Joe Allen at £15m was a steal and Coutinho at £8.6m was the best piece of business possibly ever.  The more I look at Allen's stats, the more impressed I am.  His passing, considering his success rate and low back pass percentage, is much better than Lallana, he holds onto the ball better, and his tackling is light years better than Lallana, but the latter is much more of an attacking midfielder than Allen.  Coutinho is a better overall playmaker and tackler than Lallana, though he could work on his shot selection.

There's just really no need to add Lallana to begin with.  I didn't even look at Sterling, Henderson, or Suso (who I hope gets to stick around).  If Rodgers really thinks we need another play-making midfielder, which with the fixture congestion of the upcoming season might not be a bad idea, why not go for more dynamic players like Shaqiri or Firmino?

Iago Aspas was bad business

In my post about TTI per 90, Iago Aspas came in 2nd at 14.7 last season.  Considering his diminishing minutes as the season progressed, I decided to take a look at the stats from his last campaign at Celta Vigo to see if maybe there was an indication this would happen.

apps (sub)	34
goals	12
assists	7
chances	69
shot acc %	57
shot %	11.8
pass %	77.3
back pass %	61.5
take on %	33.3
TTI per 90	15

Wow, we paid £7.7m for a guy who needed 9 shots per match to score, who passes the ball towards his own goal two-thirds of the time, gives the ball away frequently, and can't dribble passed anyone.

Brendan Rodgers clearly didn't do his homework.  Aspas will turn 27 in August, if he was in his early 20s, I'd say send him out on loan and see if he can improve, but I don't think that's an option anymore.  Celta Vigo must have laughed all the way to the bank.  Rodgers clearly can't continue to spend that kind of money on fringe players without analyzing their game thoroughly.

Who turned over the ball most last season? UPDATED

One thing that drives all football fans crazy is when your team gives away the ball.  Peter Crouch, Luis Garcia, and Momo Sissoko used to bring out the worst in me when they constantly gifted the ball to the opposition.  So I got to wondering who has the worst TTI from last season?  Just for laughs, before I do the research, I'm going to guess either Glen Johnson or Luis Suarez, so let's find out.

	TTI Per 90
Suarez	15.7
Aspas	14.7
Toure	13.4
Sterling	12.1
Enrique	11.3
Coutinho	11
Sturridge	11
Johnson	10.9
Gerrard	10.9
Allen	10.4
Moses	9.9
Henderson	9.5
Flanagan	9.2
Cissokho	8.8
Kelly	8.5
Lucas	7.9
Agger	6.3
Mignolet	6.2
Sakho	6.1
Skrtel	5.3

I found a site that keeps track of minutes played by competition and have re-done the TTI chart accordingly.

Sterling jumped a bunch of spaces to basically second among regulars.  Suarez is still first, but he only went up a little since he plays so much.  Coutinho went from second to 6th, but still 3rd among regular starters.  And what can you say about Aspas? No wonder he rarely sees the pitch.  I think it would be interesting to see if he showed signs of this kind of performance at Celta.

The Centre Back Dillema

One thing that Brendan Rodgers has to address this offseason is the issues at centre back.  Kolo Toure is old and should really only be used as a squad player.  Skrtel and Agger will both turn 30 in December and are starting to show their age.  Sakho has the ability to be all-world, but he appears to lack the discipline.  Sebastian Coates days as a Liverpool player are probably over, which is probably for the best.  That means, unless Tiago Ilori or Conor Coady are ready to step it up, or Rodgers wants to use either Martin Kelly or Andre Wisdom as centre backs (which both are fully capable, just not where they primarily play), we're going to have to bring someone in.  The players who seem to be high on Rodger's list are Dejan Lovren, Steven Caulker, and Mateo Musacchio.  Let's see how they stack up against our current group of centre backs.

	Skrtel	Sakho	Agger	Toure	Lovren	Caulker	Musacchio
app (sub)	36	18(1)	16(4)	15(5)	31	38	32
goals	7	1	2	0	2	5	1
assists	1	0	1	2	1	0	2
chances	7	2	2	7	4	9	8
shot %	46.7	12.5	33.3	0	9.9	14.7	14.3
pass %	90.8	92.5	89.1	86.4	82	74.4	79.5
bp %	23.7	22.6	18.7	20.5	21.5	20.3	16.4
tackles	1.4	1.5	1.4	1.7	2	1.2	2.4
tackle %	50	71.4	55.6	65.1	57.8	55.4	50.9
fouls	0.8	0.6	0.5	0.6	0.8	0.2	1.2
clearances	11.4	7.6	5.7	7.4	7.7	8.6	6
blocked spm	1.1	0.4	0.4	0.7	0.3	1.6	0.5
interceptions	1.7	1.5	1.1	0.8	2.7	1.2	3.4
drib past	0.4	0.3	0.3	0.6	0.5	0.3	0.8
off won	0.4	0.3	0.3	0.1	1.4	0.9	0.6
adwpg	3.6	2.6	2.3	2.2	3.3	3.8	2.2
adwg %	70.1	56	65.2	50.6	61.2	59.3	48.3
de (g)	4(2)	2(0)	3(0)	3(2)	1(1)	0(0)	4(2)
own g	4	0	0	1	0	0	1
TTI	5.2	5.6	5	5.8	10.9	10.1	9.5

First, the surprises: Sakho's 92.5% passing rate is phenomenal while Skrtel's 90.8% is skewed by his back pass rate of 23.7%.  Sakho is also the most consistent tackler with a 71.4% success rate, while Skrtel is worst at a mere 50%.  Steven Caulker took (or tied for) the most categories with 7, but his piss poor pass %, tackle rate, and TTI really hurt him.  Speaking of TTI, I was very surprised to see Lovren be the worst here, errant passes are his biggest fault.  Musacchio's tackle rate is outstanding at 2.4 and a bit unforeseen considering he plays in the less physical La Liga, unfortunately he appears to take too many risks with a 50.9% successful tackle rate.

The Captain Obvious award goes to Kolo Toure, who is old and plays like it. He took home the raspberry for shot %, interceptions, offsides won, and aerial duels won per match, and came close to bottom in three other categories.

We can really tell each player's strengths and weaknesses with these stats, Skrtel is a poor tackler who likes to back pass, but makes up for it by dominating the air and clearing the ball.  Sakho is a great passer and tackler, but not that great in the air, which is probably why those two are paired together.  Agger takes care of the ball, but is not a fan of clearances.  We know what Toure doesn't do, but he did tie for most assists and the third most chances created.

So what about our three potential signings? Well, as I stated before, Lovren's TTI can be a deal breaker, he makes a lot of bad passes and his pass rate of 82% is not impressive.  The other stat that stands out is 2.7 interceptions, which is solid.  He also turns 25 in July.

Caulker seems a bit bipolar.  He can create chances, but he's not a very good passer.  Maybe he's trying too hard or maybe he needs better teammates to feed the ball too. He's only 22 though and his passing can be improved.  Defensively, he doesn't seem to like to tackle, but he's not afraid to block shots nor commit to the air and he's hard to dribble past.  I'm not sure Cardiff can afford to keep him now that they were relegated, but they will probably want to recoup the £8m they paid for him.

Finally, we have Mateo Musacchio, who will turn 24 this August.  His back pass rate (16.4%), tackles per match (2.4), and interceptions per match (3.4) are exemplary, but he is foul prone, only succeeds at 50.9% of his tackles, easily dribbled past, and not very aerial-minded.  He also tied Skrtel with 4 defensive errors that also lead to 2 opposition goals.

Of those three, I honestly think Caulker would be the best.  Lovren is too turnover prone and I don't see Musacchio's game adjusting well to the Prem.  Of course, the dream signing would be Mehdi Benatia from Roma, but he would cost at least £20m.

Glen Johnson vs Kyle Walker

A recent comment stirred my interest.  I'm actually a big fan of Kyle Walker, but I'm not sure if he's more effective than Glen Johnson.  Let's take a look at the stats.

	G. Johnson	K. Walker
apps (sub)	29	26
tackles/pm	2.2	2
interceptions/pm	1.7	2.2
offsides won pm	0.1	0.3
clearances pm	2.4	2.6
dribbled past pm	0.8	1
blocked shots pm	0.3	0.2
aerial duels won pm	1.4	1.8
own goals	1	0
goals	0	1
assists	2	2
chances created	28	31
shots pm	0.7	0.7
passing %	84.1	82.2
passes pm	50.2	53.7
back pass %	45.6	34.9
crosses pm	0.2	0.7
cross %	9.8	20.2
long balls pm (total)	2 (57)	3.8 (100)
long ball %	54.3	60.2
key passes pm (total)	1 (28)	1.2 (31)
successful dribbles pm (total)	1.6 (46)	0.8 (22)
fouls drawn pm (total)	1.3	1.2
dispossessed pm (total)	1.2	1.3
turnovers pm (total)	1.1	0.6
TTI	11.9	12.7

Well, I was wrong.  Walker is more effective and the overall better right back.  He is just as turnover prone as Johnson, but he at least makes it up more on the defensive end.  The stats that stand out most for me are his 34.9 back pass percentage, 20.2 successful cross percentage, and especially his 60.2 long ball success percentage with 100 attempts.  The latter is just ridiculous when you consider he only played in 26 matches.

How is Kyle Walker not in the England side for the WC?  Apparently Phil Jones is second choice and that's just laughable.  Might as well put a cardboard cut-out of a donkey out there, it will do the same as 'El Terminator'.

Was Glen Johnson really that bad against Italy?

There are calls for Johnson to lose his place in the England side due to his 'dismal' performance against Itay at the World Cup, but is it really warranted?  Let's compare him to Leighton Baines, who can step on a puppy and the English press would publish articles about the state of his injured foot.

	Johnson	Baines
chances created	2	2
pass %	90	93
back pass %	36.2	50
tackles	3	2
tackle %	40	33
fouls	1	0
interceptions	0	2
blocked shots	0	0
clearances	0	0
dribbled past	1	1
key passes	2	2
true turnover index	9	4

This is a great example of how my 'true turnover index' can be skewed, especially when it comes to defenders.  Glen Johnson has a higher TTI simply because he had more possession of the ball.  He possessed the ball 15 more times than Baines and England's attack was 15% more from Johnson's side of the pitch.  Of course, that doesn't excuse bad shot selection.

Defensively, Johnson did little if nothing, but he also had less opportunity than Baines.  Italy's attack was more focused on the right side of pitch than the left, 38% to 27%.  He did have more tackles and a higher tackle % though, despite Baines' 2 interceptions.

Where Johnson is clearly better is passing.  Baines had the higher passing percentage, but half of his passes were toward his own goal, which is really not a good thing when you are a left back.  Johnson's 36.2% back pass rating is outstanding to say the least, especially paired with his 90% success rate, but his attacking abilities have never really been questioned.

The bottom line is, if Johnson should be dropped, so should Baines and probably most of the first team for that matter as really only Sturridge put on an outstanding performance.  He never has been and never will be a top class defender, but he is an above average attacking right back.