Wednesday, June 25, 2014

And then there's Marcelo...

I've been through nearly every left back out there that has been linked with Liverpool except Real Madrid's Marcelo.  I'm not sure how much they would want for him, but I would assume they wouldn't take less than £22m.  Personally, I think he's overrated, let's see if I'm right:

MarceloMorenoRodriguezShaw
age2622*2119
app(subs)24(4)27(2)3435
mins2177241430602990
goals1350
assist6091
chances44197833
npgp900.040.110.090
gcp900.290.110.410.03
ccp901.80.712.30.99
pass%85.178.980.579
bp%41.636.544.641.6
sacc%251755.341.7
shot%41313.20
tp902.91.93.12.2
tack %57.939.657.758.7
intp901.42.71.91.1
clrp901.71.62.83.7
dribpp900.60.80.80.7
bsp900.080.30.40.1
adwp900.713.11.8
adwon%415056.256.5
TTI9010.28.511.111.6

The Brazilian ties for last in overall ranking with Luke Shaw at 2.75, second is Moreno at 2.63, and coming out on top with a score of 1.75 is Ricardo Rodriguez.  Clearly we will have to over pay for Marcelo if his contribution is as equal to Shaw and the latter is 7 years his junior.

The only thing Marcelo does really well is pass the ball and he's a decent tackler, but he was either last or second to last in all other defensive categories.  He is especially poor when it comes to aerial duels, not only did he have the lowest per 90, but also the lowest success percentage.

Once again Rodriguez shows how he is the business, I will be shocked if he starts next season in a Wolfsburg shirt.  The only way Rodgers should even consider bringing in Marcelo is at discount of say £10m, but I doubt that'll happen.

Forget Moreno & Blind, Jason Davidson is who we should sign

You're probably asking yourself, "Who the %&*$ is Jason Davidson?" Well, he's a left back who plays for Australia and Heracles Almelo in the Eredivisie, and he might be the wisest solution for our left back dillema. He just turned 22 and would provide great competition for Flanagan and Enrique.  Here is his output from last season along with Daley Blind, who plays in the same league, Flanagan, and Moreno.

DavidsonBlindFlanaganMoreno
age22242122*
app(subs)30292327(2)
mins2669250318902414
goals2113
assist3110
chances32371319
npgp900.060.040.050.11
gcp900.170.070.10.11
ccp901.081.330.620.71
pass%76.588.183.778.9
bp%31.438.742.636.5
sacc%38.528.642.917
shot%15.43.614.313
tp901.72.83.81.9
tack %51.250.445.739.6
intp902.22.71.92.7
clrp905.22.13.61.6
dribpp900.91.41.90.8
bsp900.50.30.20.3
adwp901.71.61.41
adwon%58.665.746.850
TTI907.610.99.28.5
(*Moreno turns 22 in 11 days.)

Davidson has the highest overall ranking among the four, topping 8 categories and coming in second in 5 more.  His only achilles heel is his lack of successful tackles, but he is still comparable to Moreno and does have the highest tackle success rate.  His passing rate is not impressive, which is odd considering his low TTI90, but his low back pass rate is phenomenal.

The biggest buying point is his cost.  He is only valued at £352,000 according to transfermarkt, but there's no way they'll let him go for that cheap.  If we could get him for £2.5-3m, it may still be a steal.  I'd much rather spend that much and have him not work out then spend a ridiculous amount on Moreno or Blind.  It's true Davidson is not a 'dynamic' nor 'sexy' player, but neither is his price tag.

Tuesday, June 24, 2014

What Barça has to offer for Suarez

(Note: Most of this article was written before today's incident.)

Though I doubt the reports that Luis Suarez wants out are true, after the abrupt and classless exit of Fernando Torres, nothing surprises me these days.  The thing is we really can't afford to take straight cash for him, especially when whomever we replace him with, and we are going to have to replace 31 non-penalty goals and 13 assists with someone, is going to be well over-priced.  Why not try to get best value from whomever we sell him, which right now appears to be Barça.

So who can we get from the Catalan club that would be acceptable?  Well, Messi of course.  Unfortunately, that's not going to happen.  The other player who would be a straight fair trade would be Neymar, but it's highly doubtful that they would pry their cold, dead hands from the baby Brazilian wizard even if we were to throw in cash and/or Daniel Agger.  Other than replacing Suarez, we could use a left back, centre back, and another defensive midfielder, so let's see what they have to offer in those regards.

Let's look at what they have to offer on attack (with a comparison with Suarez):

SuarezPedroSanchezDeulofeuTello
age2726252023
ppFF(L)F(R)M(R)F(L,R)
app (sub)3328(9)27(7)9(16)2(20)
mins296223542374900428
goals31151931
assists1281032
chances87374799
npg900.940.570.720.30.21
gcp901.30.891.10.60.63
ccp902.61.41.80.91.9
pass %74.884.579.778.582.1
bp %44.166.563.74777.6
sacc %44.841.452.867.725
shot %17.121.4209.75
TTI901710.81310.312.1

The only player on the list above who we should even consider taking is Alexis Sanchez, plus at least £20m.  He has shown he can create the goals that we need to replace Suarez, but his backpass % is quite worrisome.  Pedro can score, but needs service, we would probably need him plus another player plus cash to justify the transaction.  Taking either Deulofeu, who impressed with his energy for Everton last season, or Tello, who appears to be great at creating goal chances, is just too risky.  We need players who have solid records of production.

Here's what they have to offer on defense:

BusquetsSongMontoyaAlbaBartra
age2627232523
ppDMDMRBLBCB
app (sub)30(2)12(7)12(1)14(1)17(3)
mins26501130112311951590
goals10001
assists10221
chances1854186
npg900.030000.06
gcp900.0700.160.150.11
ccp900.60.40.31.40.3
pass %92.591.787.689.489.9
bp %30.131.652.742.228.6
sacc %255012.56037.5
shot %12.500012.5
TTI907.57.98.696.8
tp902.82.93.41.73.1
tack %44.949.257.138.651.9
intp9022.21.71.93.2
clrp901.41.12.134
dribpp901.311.20.70.8
bsp900.20.20.20.20.7
adwp901.91.92.61.32.5
adwon%54.955.855.25067.7

Busquets is a great passer, especially considering his very low back pass rate, and for a defensive midfielder, he's not a bad chance creator either.  What worries me about him is his subpar tackle rate, though it is better than Lucas at 42.9%.  Song is the better true DM than Busquets, but offers next to nothing on the attack.

Montoya, who can play both left and right back (which is why he is included here), is the best defender overall. He is the best tackler at the highest success rate and leads in both clearances per 90 and aerial duels won per 90.  Alba is a great attacking left back, but not all that impressive on defense.  He produces the most chances per 90, but has both a poor tackle rate and success percentage.  

Finally we have Bartra, who overall is the cream of the defender crop  His 89.9% passing is nothing short of amazing when you consider only 28.6% are back passes. There is actually little to nothing that Bartra does poorly.  If we were to get him or Busquets and Pedro, plus £20m, I could live with that.

Suarez has got to go

Let's just hope we can get something for him now.

I'm all for someone being innocent until proven guilty, but the evidence isn't completely exonerating and his past is pretty damning.  The bottom line is that he can't avoid controversy and is distracting to the squad.  It's a shame since 31 non-penalty goals and 13 assists are going to be very hard to replace.

On the pitch it seems Suarez will do anything for club or country, I guess we now know the good and bad of that.  He'll play any position and give it his all, he'll even take a handball to give his side a chance, but this time, for the third time, he apparently took it too far.  I can't even fathom what he was thinking? That he would win a penalty? That's the only logical thing I can come up and it's fringe logic at best.

Most of all this is embarassing.  When people who know nothing of football, who don't support a club, and can't tell you what offside means, feel they have the right to ridicule you because they know you're a Liverpool and Suarez fan, it's very distressing.  When you can longer defend a player you love, it's truly time to let him go.

Even if he plays for Liverpool again, it will not be the same.  To me, he can now only ever be a tarnished hero at best, a player who had the potential to be one of the greats, but couldn't keep his mouth shut.  In opposition eyes, no matter what he achieves on the field, it will now always come second to his vulgar acts.

I was willing to forgive him the first time and he seemed to be on course to becoming a modest human being. No matter the outcome of the investigation, even if he is completely absolved, the fact that he put himself in this situation is infuriating.  It's a complete lack of respect for his country, club, family, and himself.

There is no other option, he has to go.

Monday, June 23, 2014

Luke Shaw for £27m? No thanks, we got Flanagan

Rumor has it Luke Shaw is headed to Man U for £27m.  That's a preposterous amount for a player who will definitely not become the next Gareth Bale.  In fact, he'll be lucky if he can become the next Leighton Baines or Aleksandar Kolarov.  Here's a look at stats from last season for Shaw, Flanagan, and a few other top left backs:

ShawFlanaganBainesAzpilicuetaKolarov
age19*21292428
app(subs)35233226(3)21(9)
mins29901890283823251977
goals01501
assist11407
chances3313481234
npgp9000.050.0600.05
gcp900.030.10.2900.36
ccp900.990.621.50.471.6
pass%7983.785.880.681.2
bp%41.642.641.437.143.5
sacc%41.742.923.84024.5
shot%014.323.801.9
tp902.23.833.82.3
tack %58.745.760.352.956.2
intp901.11.91.11.91.4
clrp903.73.62.55.32.8
dribpp900.71.90.61.10.8
bsp900.10.20.20.30.1
adwp901.81.40.41.31.7
adwon%56.546.841.258.671.7
TTI9011.69.29.110.110.9
* Shaw will turn 19 next month.

Compared to Flanagan, Shaw is the better chance creator, more efficient tackler, and significantly superior in the air, but our number 38 has a higher pass rate, nearly doubles his counterpart's tackles and clearances, and holds onto the ball better.  If Southampton were to offer Shaw for Flanagan, Rodgers would be an idiot not to take them up on it, but that would never happen.  It's not that Shaw is that much better than our 'Red Cafu' and the distance between their productivity may never be much, but Shaw has more potential.

Comparing Shaw to the others above, he is probably most similar to Kolarov.  The Serbian is a great attacking left back, but is not an exceptional defender like Azpilicueta.  Would I have paid £27m for Kolarov at (soon-to-be) 19, if I had known then what I do now? Probably, but with Shaw there's no such luxury.  It's still a crap shoot with all that can happen in his young career.

The one thing that will improve at a bigger club is the quality of his teammates.  No offense to Southampton, but Adam Lallana is no Steven Gerrard and Rickie Lambert is not even a poor man's Rooney.  Having players around him who are quicker and more talented overall should improve his numbers.  It certainly helps Kolarov.

If I've said it once, I've said 'til your eyes bleed, if we are going to splash that kind of cash for a left back or really any player, it should be Ricardo Rodriguez. He is the real deal and can provide coverage on the wing as well.  Shaw is just not worth the risk when we have fully capable coverage in Flanagan.

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