The evolution of Raheem Sterling (or why we may not need Suarez anymore)

Rumor has it Real Madrid is very high on Raheem Sterling.  I'm not sure how realistic their intentions are, but if it is true, we need to do everything we can to hold on to him.  He is ultimately more important than Suarez because he is 19-years-old and exhibits 'Messi class' potential.  If he gets even remotely close to that, he's worth what ever LFC has to pay him.

I was curious to see what Sterling's potential output of the next two seasons could be, so using a very simple projection model based on his progression over the last two seasons, I came up with this:

	2012-13	2013-14	2014-15	2015-16
age	18	19	20	21
app (sub)	19(5)	24(9)	27(7)	28(8)
mins	1748	2220	2520	2935
goals	2	9	23	32
assists	2	5	7	10
chances	37	51	60	72
npg90	0.1	0.36	0.82	0.98
gcp90	0.21	0.57	1.07	1.29
ccp90	1.91	2.06	2.14	2.21
TTI90	12.3	12.1	12	11.7

Before anyone takes leave of their senses, these are max potential projections.  I'm not saying Sterling won't score more than 23 goals next season, but it's highly unlikely.  What is probable though is that he'll have more than 7 assists and that his goal created per 90 will be around 1.07.  Let's say he only reaches 80% of his goal max, which means he scores 18 goals.  To reach a 1.07 gcp90, he'll need 12 total assists, a very realistic achievement.

As you might have noticed, with these projections, Sterling will break the Prem goal scoring record in two years.  The chances of that happening are as likely as Everton winning the league.  In fact, if he accounts for 42 goals created, it will be tied for Drogba (2009-10) for second most all-time next to Suarez from last season.  Probably not going to happen either but even if he has a 60% goal output, he finishes with 19 goals plus 10 assists, which is a decent season to say the least.

I was curious to see the progression of Messi from age 18 to 21, for a possible comparison.  Unfortunately, 'chances created' is a relatively new recorded stat, so I only included what I could.

	2005-6	2006-7	2007-8	2008-9
age	18	19	20	21
app (sub)	11(6)	23(3)	23(5)	27(4)
mins	909	1995	1998	2513
goals	2	14	10	23
assists	6	2	12	11
npg90	0.2	0.63	0.27	0.72
gcp90	0.8	0.72	0.99	1.22

Interestingly enough, his goal creation regressed from age 18 to 19 and if you take away his penalty goals, he actually only had an open field goal creation of 0.81 at age 20.  Lack of chances created makes it awfully hard to compare the two players.  By just these stats alone, Messi is far and way the better player, but will Sterling have a lapse in his career next season like the Argentinian did?  I guess we'll have to wait and see.

I'm not saying Sterling will ever reach the heights of Messi, but he does possess the potential to do so. You don't get mentioned in the same breathe as Real Madrid if you don't. 

How Liverpool & Suarez can benefit from his ban

Instead of looking on the punishment FIFA dished out Suarez as a huge dark cloud that will doom our season, let's look at some possible positives.  First and foremost, Suarez needs some time off.  Despite his two goals in the England match, he was dreadful, and he was even more useless against Italy.  In fact, since his hat-trick against Cardiff on March 22nd, he scored 3 goals and had 1 assist in our final 8 league matches.  In the previous 25 matches, he had 28 goals and 12 assists, he is clearly burnt out and an extended rest will do him wonders.

His absence allows others to get more playing time, specifically Emre Can, probably Rickie Lambert, and possibly Samed Yeşil & Jerome Sinclair.  Though I believe Rodgers brought Can in to eventually be our first choice DM, he can play box-to-box just as effectively.  I for one can't wait to see how he, Gerrard, Hendo, and Lucas are played and interact. I also think Yeşil and Sinclair deserve decent chances to show us what they can offer, probably just in cup ties though.  What I don't wish is for Borini to get more pitch time.

Everybody stay calm, we still have Sturridge, Sterling, Coutinho, and hopefully, Suso.  The latter might now benefit the most from Suarez' absence and I hope this convinces Rodgers to let him stay and play.  What worries me about Sturridge is that he will get burnt out as well, but if BR knows what's best for him, he'll let our number 15 stay home from all the off-season promotional tours and rest up until the season starts.  If we truly added Sanchez then we'll have even less issue with player wear.  If we add Shaqiri, we won't miss a beat.

Finally, we are now no longer one of the favorites to win the league, which is not necessarily a bad thing.  Pressure's off, no one thinks we have a chance, much like last season.  If we can come out and be competitive until Suarez' return, we'll be in great position to win the league.  I have a feeling if Suarez is still around, he's gonna come out on fire and give everyone else a rest as he wins a few fixtures by himself.  He's done it before.

Signing Divock Origi is a waste of everyone's time

There are recent reports that we may be after 19-year-old Belgian and World Cup darling, Divock Origi, but I highly doubt it.  There is absolutely no reason to add him to the squad and no logic for him to join.  I'm not saying he isn't good enough, but why sign a 19-year-old who will be our fourth striker (with or without Suarez, we will sign a top replacement if needs be). He will get little playing time, which could hamper his development, and he'll probably be unhappy spending time on the reserves or loaned out to other sides.  It makes no sense to either party.

Furthermore, there's nothing in his statistical output that separates him from what we already have at the club.  Here are his numbers from last season for Lille along with last season's production of fellow 19-year-old Sterling and the player Origi should long to emulate, Daniel Sturridge:

	Origi	Sterling	Sturridge
age	19	19	24
app (sub)	12(18)	24(9)	26(3)
mins	1286	2220	2267
goals	5	9	21
assists	0	5	7
chances	18	51	29
npg90	0.35	0.36	0.83
gcp90	0.35	0.57	1.1
ccp90	1.3	2.06	1.2
pass %	79.1	81.7	79.3
bp %	54.2	46.8	53.4
sacc %	54.2	48.9	42.4
shot %	20.8	20	21.2
TTI90	12.2	12.1	11

First and foremost, Origi primarily starts up front and covers the left side of the pitch.  Overall his numbers are eerily similar to Sterling with two exceptions, chances created and back pass percentage.  Sterling creates nearly a chance more per 90 and passes towards his own goal much less.  

The only thing separating him and Sturridge is goal-scoring rate, which is kind of important when you're a forward.  Their shooting rate is similar, though Origi has the superior shooting accuracy percentage, which tells me he tends to take bad shots and/or fails to challenge the keeper most of the time.

The bottom line is Origi is not what we need and he's not dynamic enough to justify bringing him in for what will probably be a speculative price.  Let him prove himself elsewhere for 4-5 seasons and when Sturridge starts to go in decline then try to sign him.  Right now he's just the victim of the World Cup hype train.

What Barça has to offer for Suarez

(Note: Most of this article was written before today's incident.)

Though I doubt the reports that Luis Suarez wants out are true, after the abrupt and classless exit of Fernando Torres, nothing surprises me these days.  The thing is we really can't afford to take straight cash for him, especially when whomever we replace him with, and we are going to have to replace 31 non-penalty goals and 13 assists with someone, is going to be well over-priced.  Why not try to get best value from whomever we sell him, which right now appears to be Barça.

So who can we get from the Catalan club that would be acceptable?  Well, Messi of course.  Unfortunately, that's not going to happen.  The other player who would be a straight fair trade would be Neymar, but it's highly doubtful that they would pry their cold, dead hands from the baby Brazilian wizard even if we were to throw in cash and/or Daniel Agger.  Other than replacing Suarez, we could use a left back, centre back, and another defensive midfielder, so let's see what they have to offer in those regards.

Let's look at what they have to offer on attack (with a comparison with Suarez):

	Suarez	Pedro	Sanchez	Deulofeu	Tello
age	27	26	25	20	23
pp	F	F(L)	F(R)	M(R)	F(L,R)
app (sub)	33	28(9)	27(7)	9(16)	2(20)
mins	2962	2354	2374	900	428
goals	31	15	19	3	1
assists	12	8	10	3	2
chances	87	37	47	9	9
npg90	0.94	0.57	0.72	0.3	0.21
gcp90	1.3	0.89	1.1	0.6	0.63
ccp90	2.6	1.4	1.8	0.9	1.9
pass %	74.8	84.5	79.7	78.5	82.1
bp %	44.1	66.5	63.7	47	77.6
sacc %	44.8	41.4	52.8	67.7	25
shot %	17.1	21.4	20	9.7	5
TTI90	17	10.8	13	10.3	12.1

The only player on the list above who we should even consider taking is Alexis Sanchez, plus at least £20m.  He has shown he can create the goals that we need to replace Suarez, but his backpass % is quite worrisome.  Pedro can score, but needs service, we would probably need him plus another player plus cash to justify the transaction.  Taking either Deulofeu, who impressed with his energy for Everton last season, or Tello, who appears to be great at creating goal chances, is just too risky.  We need players who have solid records of production.

Here's what they have to offer on defense:

	Busquets	Song	Montoya	Alba	Bartra
age	26	27	23	25	23
pp	DM	DM	RB	LB	CB
app (sub)	30(2)	12(7)	12(1)	14(1)	17(3)
mins	2650	1130	1123	1195	1590
goals	1	0	0	0	1
assists	1	0	2	2	1
chances	18	5	4	18	6
npg90	0.03	0	0	0	0.06
gcp90	0.07	0	0.16	0.15	0.11
ccp90	0.6	0.4	0.3	1.4	0.3
pass %	92.5	91.7	87.6	89.4	89.9
bp %	30.1	31.6	52.7	42.2	28.6
sacc %	25	50	12.5	60	37.5
shot %	12.5	0	0	0	12.5
TTI90	7.5	7.9	8.6	9	6.8
tp90	2.8	2.9	3.4	1.7	3.1
tack %	44.9	49.2	57.1	38.6	51.9
intp90	2	2.2	1.7	1.9	3.2
clrp90	1.4	1.1	2.1	3	4
dribpp90	1.3	1	1.2	0.7	0.8
bsp90	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.7
adwp90	1.9	1.9	2.6	1.3	2.5
adwon%	54.9	55.8	55.2	50	67.7

Busquets is a great passer, especially considering his very low back pass rate, and for a defensive midfielder, he's not a bad chance creator either.  What worries me about him is his subpar tackle rate, though it is better than Lucas at 42.9%.  Song is the better true DM than Busquets, but offers next to nothing on the attack.

Montoya, who can play both left and right back (which is why he is included here), is the best defender overall. He is the best tackler at the highest success rate and leads in both clearances per 90 and aerial duels won per 90.  Alba is a great attacking left back, but not all that impressive on defense.  He produces the most chances per 90, but has both a poor tackle rate and success percentage.  

Finally we have Bartra, who overall is the cream of the defender crop  His 89.9% passing is nothing short of amazing when you consider only 28.6% are back passes. There is actually little to nothing that Bartra does poorly.  If we were to get him or Busquets and Pedro, plus £20m, I could live with that.

Suarez has got to go

Let's just hope we can get something for him now.

I'm all for someone being innocent until proven guilty, but the evidence isn't completely exonerating and his past is pretty damning.  The bottom line is that he can't avoid controversy and is distracting to the squad.  It's a shame since 31 non-penalty goals and 13 assists are going to be very hard to replace.

On the pitch it seems Suarez will do anything for club or country, I guess we now know the good and bad of that.  He'll play any position and give it his all, he'll even take a handball to give his side a chance, but this time, for the third time, he apparently took it too far.  I can't even fathom what he was thinking? That he would win a penalty? That's the only logical thing I can come up and it's fringe logic at best.

Most of all this is embarassing.  When people who know nothing of football, who don't support a club, and can't tell you what offside means, feel they have the right to ridicule you because they know you're a Liverpool and Suarez fan, it's very distressing.  When you can longer defend a player you love, it's truly time to let him go.

Even if he plays for Liverpool again, it will not be the same.  To me, he can now only ever be a tarnished hero at best, a player who had the potential to be one of the greats, but couldn't keep his mouth shut.  In opposition eyes, no matter what he achieves on the field, it will now always come second to his vulgar acts.

I was willing to forgive him the first time and he seemed to be on course to becoming a modest human being. No matter the outcome of the investigation, even if he is completely absolved, the fact that he put himself in this situation is infuriating.  It's a complete lack of respect for his country, club, family, and himself.

There is no other option, he has to go.

Blame the FA, Hodgson, or the entire squad, not just Gerrard

It is sad and pathetic that the English press and the wind-up blogs are attempting, though ever so poorly, to blame Steven Gerrard for the early World Cup exit of the Three Lions. He did not pick the manager.  He did not pick the players.  He did not pick the formations, his own position, nor tactics.  All he did was go out and play to the best of his ability, trying to execute the plan of his manager.

Roy Hodgson is not truly to blame either, he is just doing what he has always done, but it is quite evident that his style of management doesn't work for the English side.  He is a blue collar manager if there ever was one.  He found most of his success at clubs in lesser leagues like the Allsvenskan or at smaller clubs like Fulham and West Brom which rely more on tactics than talent.  Let's face it, England is made up of big club players and it is hard for a big club player to revert to simple tactics, it is like asking a chef to wash dishes, he can do it, but he won't be happy nor necessarily do it well.

Capello utilized advanced tactics, but he also knew how to control the superstar egos of the English side.  You were either part of the team or watching from the outside, Hodgson is too much of a gentleman to command the Three Lions.  I'm not saying they lack discipline, because if anything they are seemingly one of England's more mature squads despite their age, I just think Hodgson's tactics and demeanor lack the authority to shape the squad to his liking.

Gerrard had a very poor performance against Uruguay and a medicore one, at least for him, versus Italy.  Neither losses can be fully pegged on him though.  In the Italy match, England's lack of a true defensive midfielder, which they don't even have in the squad, hurt them because no one could stifle the Italian attack.  Neither Gerrard nor Henderson are true DMs and it's idiotic to ask them to play such a role on the world's biggest stage.  Hodgson supposedly imploys zonal marking, so it was either executed quite poorly on both of Italy's goals or nobody listened.  The lack of coverage on the second goal and the careless positioning by Hart are clear signs of a insufficiently managed side.

The Uruguay match was just plain awful from everyone, even for Suarez.  He scored two goals, but was statistically one of, if not the, worst player on the pitch.  Uruguay overall had a passing rate of 64.7%, 53.9% in the England half, and did not connect on a single one of their 18 cross attempts.  Unfortunately the England defense went asleep for a total of about ten seconds and it cost them the match.  Hodgson's tactical approach is a support method of twos and the two centre backs, Jagielka and Cahill, failed to communicate on the first goal, allowing Suarez to sneak in and put away a brilliant header.

Everyone wants to blame Gerrard for the second goal since he miscalculated his header and passed it on to his Liverpool teammate, but it was the brilliance of Suarez to net at a tight angle with scorching pace.  Still it was Gerrard's error that gave him the ball and actually Cahill did a great job in cutting down Suarez' perspective, but Hart's indecisiveness to go for it or stay back was quite apparent and he ended up doing neither.  If he would have stayed back, he would at least had a chance of a save, but getting stuck in the middle left him little chance.

No one seems to be talking about Rooney missing three point blank chances, one in the Italy match and two versus Uruguay.  He connects on one of those, this post doesn't happen.  England still has hope against Costa Rica.  He better realize that if it weren't for Sterling, Sturridge, and Johnson, he would have had zero assists and zero goals, they better be on his Christmas card list.

Listen I can spew stats all day to disprove Gerrard's culpability and direct the blame on others, but it's just as stupid as being a sensationalist and blaming the captain for a total piss poor team effort.  The bottom line is, and it pains me to say this, they should have brought Michael Carrick and begged Gareth Barry to come, so they would have a true DM.  I don't want to get into why I would have picked a different squad, but I don't see the point in taking Lampard and an injured Oxlade-Chamberlain.

Also, if reports are true, and Hodgson still has a job after the World Cup, than the only people to truly blame are the donkey shepherds at the FA.  Hodgson is not the manager to take England anywhere, not even a watermelon festival.  They should go after a gaffer with balls, who that is, well I don't know, but I would even take André Villas-Boas at this point.

How good is Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz?

Before the World Cup match between Uruguay and England, Roy Hodgson said that Luis Suarez is not yet 'world class'.  Well, he found out the hard way how wrong he was.  Suarez may not have had the greatest match, but his world class ability shone through.

Let's see how he sizes up against some other players considered 'world class'.  Charted below is their previous seasons in their respective leagues except for Falcao, his stats are from his previous and last season in La Liga with Atletico Madrid.

	Suarez	Messi	Ronaldo	Bale	Costa	Falcao
age	27	26	29	24	25	28
app (sub)	33	29(2)	30	24(3)	34(1)	34
mins	2962	2498	2537	2065	2952	2896
goals	31	28	31	15	27	28
assists	12	11	9	12	3	1
chances	87	75	47	40	45	32
npg90	0.94	0.79	0.89	0.66	0.67	0.62
gcp90	1.3	1.4	1.3	1.2	0.91	0.9
ccp90	2.6	2.8	1.6	1.8	1.4	1
pass %	74.8	85	80.3	76.3	75.5	79.9
bp %	44.1	44.6	56.4	52.2	61	59.4
sacc %	44.8	46.3	43.1	34.1	50	43.1
shot %	17.1	17.5	14.4	17.1	25	22.8
TTI90	17	13.1	12.9	11.5	15.5	12.8
	Sturridge	Y. Toure	Aguero	RVP	Rooney	Ribery
age	24	31	26	30	28	31
app (sub)	26(3)	35	20(3)	18(3)	27(2)	18(4)
mins	2267	2917	1526	1578	2446	1635
goals	21	20	17	12	17	10
assists	7	9	6	3	10	10
chances	29	40	34	16	56	56
npg90	0.83	0.43	1	0.57	0.51	0.55
gcp90	1.1	0.9	1.4	0.86	1	1.1
ccp90	1.2	1.2	2	0.9	2.1	2.8
pass %	79.3	90.1	84.9	76.7	80.1	83.9
bp %	53.4	35.1	56	50.9	48.4	50.8
sacc %	42.4	42.2	50	33.9	42.6	49.2
shot %	21.2	31.3	19.8	19.4	16.8	17
TTI90	11	10.2	11.8	10.5	15.4	17.8

Suarez comes in 2nd in non-penalty goals per 90, 3rd in goals created per 90, and 3rd in chances created per 90.  He also finished 4th in shot accuracy.  Unfortunately he had the worst pass rate, but he did have the second lowest back pass percentage, bettered only by Yaya Toure.  His TTI90 was second worst after Franck Ribery, mainly due to bad pass attempts.

Overall he is bested by Messi alone, but the Argentinian's stats are padded by 6 penalty goals where Suarez had none.  If you consider the six penalties that Ronaldo converted, Suarez is much better overall.  He already trumps the defending Ballon D'or winner in nearly every category, but take away spot kicks and CR7 is not even part of the conversation.

Speaking of the Ballon D'or, if Suarez can continue his scorching pace, Messi should be the only other player considered.  How they and their teams perform in the World Cup is probably on what the award will hinge.  Both are off to great starts, but Uruguay will have to beat Italy if they want to advance to the knock-out stages.  Suarez will probably once again have to prove his 'world class' if they are to do so.