Saturday, July 19, 2014

Steven Caulker doesn't fancy a tackle

It's not that the 22-year-old is poor at tackling, in fact his 63.8 career percentage is admirable, it's just not his style.  The one-time England international has clearly learned the game from former clubmates Ashley Williams and Ledley King.  Neither of those two were much of tacklers either, but both are/were considered capable defenders.  Caulker still has a way to go before he reaches the level of those two, but at least he's on the right path.
npg90gc90cc90ap90ccvTTI90
0.090.110.270.039.18.1
pass%bp%sacc%shot%intp90clrp90
8322.831.310.51.398.47
drbp90bs90tp90tack%adw90adw%
0.221.151.2263.82.856.2
gsp90gap90gop90tgopgopd
1.121.56-0.44-0.25-0.19
Stats definitions can be found here.

Those are his career stats from the last three Premier League seasons.  He spent 2011-12 on loan to Swansea, where he paired with Williams, 2012-13 at Spurs, and in the summer of 2013, Tottenham sold him to Cardiff.  Three years, three different clubs, and next season he'll be at either QPR or Liverpool, but is he worth buying?

The thing about Caulker is that he was a much better player in his season with the Spurs than at either Welsh club.  He set career highs in goals and assists per 90 minutes played, successful passing, tackling, and shot accuracy percentage, true turnover index per 90 minutes played, interceptions and clearances per 90 minutes played in that campaign.  A couple were particularly impressive, his 89.7% successful pass percentage with only a 27.8% back pass percentage is outstanding and his 4.3 true turnover rate is one of the best I've ever seen.  I can only imagine how impressive his numbers would be if he came to Liverpool.

Probably his most commendable career stat is his 0.22 dribbled past per 90 minutes. If his 0.26 drbp90 from last season at relegated Cardiff, which would have been second to only Skrtel among Liverpool centre backs, doesn't impress, his 0.06 drbp90 in his season at Tottenham is mind-blowing.  Again, that is a number  so low, I'm pretty confident I have never seen anything like it.  For perspective, Lovren posted a 0.48 drbp90 last season at Southampton, that would have been worst among Liverpool centre backs last season, even behind the 0.44 put up by 'Ole Man' Toure.

If we can get Caulker for the £8m that QPR apparently bid (and was accepted), by all means we should sign him.  Even £10m is an acceptable amount.  He is right-footed and will give Skrtel a run for his money, not to mention the Slovak and Agger are both 29-years-old and not getting any younger.  If Sakho shows improvement and adapts better to the English game next season, he and Caulker would be a force hard to reckon with for years to come.

Is Micah Richards an upgrade of Glen Johnson?

Two seasons ago, Micah Richards was on top of the world.  He had helped City win their first Premiership and had worked his way back into England national team consideration.  Then injury devastated his career path and he has seen the pitch just a total of 18 times in all competitions since.

It's tragic since the 26-year-old is actually a pretty remarkable footballer.  In the last 5 seasons, he has made only 79 league appearances for 5866 minutes, equivalent to 65.2 matches, less than two full seasons.  Glen Johnson, on the other hand, has made 141 league appearances for 12267 minutes. Here's how they size up in the last five years combined:
npg90gc90cc90ap90pass%sacc%shot%
Johnson0.060.141.210.0882.325.55.4
Richards0.080.180.460.1182.7358.3
intp90clrp90drbp90bs90t90adw90adw%
Johnson1.892.410.730.262.511.3258.6
Richards1.644.710.520.511.922.9071.1
ccvTTI90gsp90gap90gop90tgopgopd
Johnson6.711.61.941.090.950.660.29
Richards23.38.052.021.030.991.42-0.43

Micah Richards is three years younger and is in the prime of his career, so it should not be surprising that he takes 17 of 21 categories.  Glen Johnson is 29 and in decline, but the elder still seems to be a more important factor to his sides' results.

Richards will definitely have to improve on his chances created per 90 minutes if he wants to stay hold of a starting spot on Rodgers' side.  He may make up for it in nearly every other stat, but a -0.43 goals on pitch difference is a yellow flag in the least.

Richards would be an excellent addition to our club, if he could stay healthy and right now that's an unsurety.  He would probably cost at least £10m, which is a bargain if he can give us at least three productive seasons. At the right price and passing a thorough medical, Richards is the ideal signing, certainly a better choice than Bertrand.

Friday, July 18, 2014

The transfer rubbish bin: Vidal, Pogba, the Pope & Santa Claus

The latest slop to come from the transfer pig trough is Liverpool's interest in Juventus midfielders Arturo Vidal and Paul Pogba.  The chance of such rumours coming to fruition are like Kate Upton having my love child.

Arturo Vidal is a man-beast.  Unfortunately, Liverpool have no interest nor room for the 27-year-old Chilean International. With Can, Henderson, Gerrard, & Lucas, minutes would be sparse, and his lack of 'specialization' would only hurt his chances of pitch time.

Vidal is an all-round good midfielder, but does nothing great.  Here are his stats from last season:
npgp90gcp90ccp90ap90ccv
0.330.591.730.1810.6
pass%bp%sacc%shot%TTI90
83.740.933.319.313.2
gsp90gap90gop90tgopgopd90
2.210.741.471.5-0.03
intp90drbp90tp90tack%adw%
1.441.994.843.253.8

If he hadn't scored 11 goals and had 5 assists, he'd be a poor man's Lucas.  If he didn't post such defensive numbers, he'd be a slightly passing inferior Jordan Henderson.  Either way, he pales in comparison to a 33-year-old Gerrard.

Pogba falls under the same problem, he's also a box-to-box whom would probably be great at being either an attacking or defensive midfielder if he just concentrated his efforts towards being one or the other.  He does seem to be better on the ball than Vidal though.

npgp90gcp90ccp90ap90ccv
0.210.411.410.2114.6
pass%bp%sacc%shot%TTI90
83.839.739.79.611.3
gsp90gap90gop90tgopgopd90
2.140.591.551.50.05
intp90clrp90tp90tack%adw%
1.061.142.4640.658.4

They are very similar players which is probably why Juventus are shopping both, but will probably only sell one.  Unfortunately, there is no reason to buy either, Henderson is just as good, Gerrard is better, Lucas is a far superior holding midfielder, and Can has all the assets to compete for minutes.

The Pope is great at crosses and saves, but do we really need a winger/keeper?

Thursday, July 17, 2014

Club of the Serbian 'Harry Potter' is open to offers

Adem Ljajic is talented, no doubt, but is he worth the £10m price tag?  Kind of yes, but ultimately no, let me explain.  Here are his stats from last season:
npgp90gcp90ccp90ap90ccv
0.280.611.830.2815.2
pass%bp%sacc%shot%TTI90
90.955.852.811.39.8
gsp90gap90gop90tgopgopd
1.830.8311.24-0.24

Not bad, but not mind-blowing.  What about the season before, his last with Fiorentina:
npgp90gcp90ccp90ap90ccv
0.561.062.440.4418.2
pass%bp%sacc%shot%TTI90
88.159.64113.39.5
gsp90gap90gop90tgopgopd
1.941.330.610.74-0.13

Overall better, he impressed with his chance created per 90 minutes as well as his chance created value.  His passing slipped in both directions though, having a lower success percentage and a higher back pass rate. In the end, he failed to leave a positive mark upon either season, having negative goals on pitch differences for both campaigns.  He improved in the areas that he can control. but it failed to translate in the areas he could not.

Roma have Miralem Pjanic and recently added Juan Iturbe, so the 22-year-old Serbian has become expendable.  Unfortunately, there is no real reason sign to him.  Yes, the pattern of his career shows that next year will be a bumper crop, but who knows how bad he'll crash the following campaign.  His inconsistency is his biggest fault.

I think it's nice that we are linked to such a talented, young player, but he's just too big of a risk.  Rodgers should only sign players who have proven themselves over a number of years, no matter the age or the league.  If Ljajic is as talented as advertised, he's still at least two years from being a Premier League star.

Wednesday, July 16, 2014

Rising French star to 'replace' Suarez

Alexandre Lacazette is a 23-year-old forward who plays for Lyon in Ligue 1 and the France national football team.  He's got great ball skills, passing vision, and is a solid finisher.  Last season he came into his own, netting 15 goals in 36 appearances.  Here is his output from that campaign:
npgp90gcp90ccp90ap90ccv
0.470.561.270.097.3
pass%bp%sacc%shot%TTI90
77.352.947.617.911.2
gsp90gap90gop90tgopgopd90
1.581.090.490.320.17

At first glance, that chance created value is dismal.  It basically means he is not setting up his teammates with good looks at goal or his teammates take bad shots or they are horrible finishers.  The fact that his teammates took 51% of their shots outside of the box leads me to believe answer number two is most likely why his ccv was so poor.  Still, it's an area in need of improvement.

His passing could see some development as well, a 52.9% back pass percentage tells me that his 77.3% passing rate is misleading, but at least he isn't turning over the ball at an obscene rate.  An 11.2 true turnover index is about what Sterling and Coutinho post.

There are other positives, he is only 23 and will only probably only cost about £16m.  I don't know if we necessarily need him though and maybe another year at Lyon would be best for all.  If he can improve on last season and score 20+ goals, he probably won't go up in value more than £25m, but he'll be a proven talent, not just a flash in the pan. A 'replacement' for Suarez though? I think not.

Let Man United waste their dosh on Cavani

Is Edinson Cavani the most overrated player in the world? If not, he's up there.  He can't pass, he can't shoot, he can't dribble, and he does not create goals.  What is the big deal?

His stats from last season do nothing to justify his £50m+ estimation:
npgp90gcp90ccp90ap90ccv
0.550.710.90.088.7
pass%bp%sacc%shot%TTI90
85.562.336.516.79.5
gsp90gap90gop90tgopgopd90
2.120.631.491.61-0.12

His pass success rate of 85.5% is excellent, at being misleading.  I'm not sure If I have ever seen a back pass percentage above 60, even Iago Aspas had 58.1% last season.  He does have a low turnover rate, but he wasn't exactly the primary ball carrier for PSG, they do have a few other well-known footballers on their squad.  In fact, he only averaged 28 pass attempts and 3.8 shots per 90 minutes last season, for perspective, Ibrahimovic averaged 50 and 5.2 respectively.

Further proof that his passing rate from last season was an anomaly:
yearageclubcompapp(sub)pcompattpass%
2012-1326NapoliSerie A33(1)54459877.9
2011-1225NapoliSerie A32(3)55175872.7
2010-1124NapoliSerie A32(3)49567873
2009-1023PalermoSerie A31(3)52368276.7
totals2113271677.8

His previous four year average is nearly 8 points lower.  All those expensive teammates make him look like a Pirlo, when he's really just a Kevin Nolan.  Oddly enough, his 8.7 ccv is his lowest in five years, while his career high was 18.8, his first season in Napoli.  His five year average though is only 11.

Cavani is far from worth £50m, he's probably not even worth £15m. I hope Van Gaal buys him though, it will just add to the horrible deals they made this summer.

The best 'unknown' striker in the world and why Rodgers should sign him

Seydou Doumbia is not completely unknown, Arsenal and Newcastle have both been linked to him in recent years, yet he continues to terrorize defenses of the Russian Premier League.  Prior to that, he made minced meat of the Swiss Super League, winning player of the year honours in 2008-09 and 2009-10.

The 26-year-old Ivorian's scoring rate at CSKA Moscow is Suarez-esque, 54 goals in 82 matches, but that's not the only indication he is worthy of a £25m transfer fee.  Here are his stats for his club from last season:
npgp90gcp90ccp90ap90ccv
0.811.451.340.4130.4
pass%bp%sacc%shot%TTI90
77.345.251.73110.1
gap90gsp90gop90tgopgopd90
0.72.561.860.771.09

Those numbers in blue are outstanding and he's been posting such for six years now.  Sure, the RPL and the SSL are not the EPL, but even if his production drops by a third, he'll still produce a goal a match.

It's not just goals though, it's his efficiency. A 30.4% chance created value combined with a 31% goal for shot rate is ridiculous, Sturridge was the closest player for us last year with a 23.3% ccv and a 21.2% shot percentage.

His feet are quick, but not Suarez-level quick, few are.  His finishing is not clinical, it's extraordinary.  He also has the knack to be in the right place at the right time, which is something that can't be taught.  He's a unique talent who knows how to score no matter the given situation and that's why Rodgers should try and sign him.

Need more evidence? Start with this video. 

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