Liverpool 2, PFC Ludogorets Razgrad 1: The same old rubbish

Like clockwork, the problems plaguing our side once again reared their ugly heads.  We couldn't score despite plenty of intrusions into our opponent's third and got caught out of position at the back.  We were lucky not to lose and the only way to justify a win is to say we deserved it, but even that is laying it on a bit thick.  Sure, we dominated the match, played a reckless style that was enjoyable to watch, but should have scored loads of goals and not allowed any by a clearly inferior side.

Sterling has to take his shots, forget about trying to help Balotelli break the duck or trying to share the wealth with his captain, he has to shoot it.  Has he lost his confidence? If so, his play on the ball doesn't show it, he should just thump away without a concious like Suarez did last year.  I'd rather he take it on a decent look than lay off and let the defence collapse around whomever receives it.  It became infectious as even Gerrard passed on a decent look at the top of the box where he has, in the very least, challenged the keeper many times throughout his career.

Beyond that, after the first goal, eighty-two minutes into the match and seen coming from a mile away, Rodgers should have pulled everyone back instead of allowing his players to be greedy.  I know it's not his style, but it should have been 4-0 at that point, take what you can get and park the bus.  Our defence become porous and Ludogorets produced counter after counter with ease. Once Sakho and Lovren got 'adventurous' the probable became inevitable.  Also, Mignolet didn't help with his decision to come out of net so early.  Then, of course, we are saved by a dubious penalty, which probably did more bad than good.  No matter what, we must learn to score without Sturridge, whom along with Gerrard, saved us many a time last season.

As for individual performances, Lallana is now 0-2 on chances to impress. Big surprise, I thought he was going to show me I was wrong about him being a wasted £26m? Yeah, not gonna happen, if he pulls his club out of this scoring rut, I may lay off of him, but he won't. We'll be laughing about him being the second worst acquisition in LFC history soon enough.  I also thought Southampton was going to be relegated? Again, ridiculous.

Balotelli was probably the man of the match, but Moreno needs special mention for his assist, five chances created, 37/41 passing (90.2%), and 3 tackles for good measure.  Also, Manquillo was a beast on defence, leading the side with 8 tackles, 3 interceptions, and 3 clearances.  In the end, it's a much needed three points for our Champions League cause.  Next we have West Ham at Upton, which means Sam Allardyce trying to measure up against Rodgers and Liverpool's superior talent.  I will be shocked if Big Sam takes a stifling defensive approach, but if he does, it won't be the first time he's surprised me.  Hopefully we'll find an answer to our scoring issues early on and then pour it on.

Liverpool 0, Aston Villains 1: 'Character'? Senderos should be suspended

In continuing some of the worst football seen in the Premiership in years, Aston Villa pulled off a criminal win against Liverpool on Saturday.  The farcical display was highlighted by four, yes, four off-the-ball assaults by Phillip Senderos on Mario Balotelli.  Somehow all four officials missed them all.  Oh yes, there are FOUR officials, not just one or two or three, but four.  Once again the Prem cheapens it's product with a laughable display of officiating and then blatantly ignores the 'ignoring'.  Yes, the refs saw all four fouls, if that was Sakho on Rooney, the Frenchman would have been sent off immediately after the first assault and then probably fined and suspended.  Save the lies, misdirections, and double-speak for the idiots who will fork over any amount of money to feel like a winner because their lives are so pathetically indulged in vicarious behavior and will never analyze anything beyond where they defecate.  If the Premier League truly cared about racism, they certainly failed to show it at Anfield on Saturday.  If the Premier League truly cared about putting an honest product on the pitch, they would never allow contentious acts of 'character' be displayed one time, yet alone four.  Welcome to the hyperreality, you just got a front row seat.

With my diatribe out of the way, Liverpool did not deserve to win either, but they certainly should not have lost.  They dominated nearly every aspect of the match except thuggery.  Lo and behold had the home side acted in the manner that the Brum bruisers did, cards would have been in abundance.  The fact that LFC received more cards than the visitors is laughable in itself.  Amazingly the Claret and Blue got called for more fouls though, a whole one that is, and 19 total fouls in the entire match?  Maybe the refs didn't see anything in the match, maybe they were just too busy thinking about their summer homes.

As for individual performances, outside of the amazing diplay of 'character' by Phillip Senderos, who probably thinks by 'character', he means a cartoon character.  Maybe he thought he was Elmer Fudd and Balotelli was Bugs Bunny. Who knows, who cares.  Getting on with it, Adam Lallana has a long way to go to justify his £26m transfer fee, 80% passing is just not going to get it done.  It was technically his first match so he gets a pass, this time.  The bottom line is, we had an 89% pass success rate, we moved the ball down the pitch with ease, but once we got in the opponent's third, we failed to find space, failed to make space, and failed to take advantage of the few true shot opportunities afforded to us by the 'negative' football being displayed by Villa.

Once in a while, especially early on in matches, we need to take ambitious chances to score spectacular goals and once we are a threat from scoring outside the box, it'll open up the pitch like magic.  Sterling, Coutinho, and Henderson are going to have to 'thump' it from distance and try to at least force a save from the opposition keeper.  Maybe Balotelli sneaks and puts away on the rebound, you never know.  It's nice to have players that want to help their teammates score, but one too many passes is becoming habitual among our players and getting us no where.  Sometimes being selfish is best for the team.

There is little logic to Saturday's result.  Aston Villa basically planned on the nil-nil draw and got a lucky result.  They had no intentions of trying to play an up-and-down match with a side that would have abused them for doing so.  Still, Liverpool is going to have to deal with this a lot this season, very few other than the top five or six clubs have the firepower to get into a free-for-all.  Coutinho, Sterling, Henderson, and Lallana are going to have to step up, take chances and quit going for the obvious pass all the time.  Failure to do so is going to result in a long season and Balotelli getting assaulted often.

Lazar to get off the Markovic? Liverpool to win 6-0? What the markets say...

Aston Villa to win at 11/1 seems like a decent gamble and 45.92% of all bettors agree.  Looks like a sucker bet to me and Liverpool at 1/3 isn't worth the return.  5/1 for a draw seems to high, expect Liverpool to win.

To win:
Aston Villa	11/1	45.92%
Liverpool	1/3	43.78%
Draw	5/1	10.30%

A lot of people seem to think Sterling will be the first to score and there's a nice pay off if they're right, but if I was a betting man, I'd go with Balotelli or even Gerrard.  Hopefully someone doesn't bet on Studge.

First goalscorer:
Sterling	6/1	39.02%
Balotelli	15/4	24.39%
Weimann	16/1	7.32%
Gerrard	8/1	4.88%
Coutinho	10/1	4.88%
Markovic	7/1
Lambert	7/2
Agbonlahor	14/1
Borini	6/1
Henderson	10/1
Sturridge	14/5

The market is giving Aston Villa much of a chance when it comes to the final tally.  The lowest odds for the visiting side to win is 1-0 and that's at 25/1.  Liverpool at 12/1 for 4-0 looks intriguing and a tiny wager on 6-0 at 50/1 wouldn't hurt.  Apparently most bettors think Villa will double their average goals per a match and score twice against Liverpool.  It's possible, just not very probable.  

Correct score:
Liverpool	4-2	40/1	13.89%
Liverpool	3-0	17/2	11.11%
Liverpool	3-1	11/1	8.33%
Liverpool	2-0	6/1
Liverpool	4-0	12/1
Liverpool	5-0	25/1
Liverpool	6-0	50/1

Bettors overwhelmingly think Balotelli will score at some point in the match and the 19/20 pay off shows it.  Even Markovic with a 21/10 return is not that great off odds.  Henderson at 4/1 or Lovren at 6/1 look like good wagers to me.

Anytime scorer:
Balotelli	19/20	71.43%
Lambert	6/5	9.52%
Bent	6/1	4.76%
Henderson	4/1
Lovren	6/1
Markovic	21/10

Balotelli to score 3 is awfully low at 20/1 and there's a great pay-off if either Markovic gets hot or free-kicks and penalties come into play for Gerrard.

Score hat-trick:
Balotelli	20/1
Markovic	80/1
Gerrard	50/1

Balotelli to score a brace is not that great of a payoff either, Markovic and Gerrard seem most likely again but the return is much less.  Henderson at 25/1 here seems like a decent wager.

Two or more goals:
Balotelli	9/2
Markovic	14/1
Gerrard	12/1

Bettors and bookmakers agree that Sterling will be Man of the Match, but since the pay-off isn't that great and there usually isn't much money bet on these kind of perks, it could happen.  Vlaar at 22/1 though, yeah, good luck.  The best bet is probably Balotelli at 6/1, but I like Henderson at 12/1 and Markovic as a long shot at 14/1 though the return isn't that great.

Man of the match:
Sterling	4/1	37.50%
Vlaar	22/1	25.00%
Balotelli	6/1
Gerrard	4/1
Henderson	12/1
Markovic	14/1

Finally, who do you think will most likely get shown a card?  Yeah, me too, and at 3/1 he isn't even the favorite.  Hutton and Lucas are, which isn't that surprising.

Shown a card:
Balotelli	3/1
Hutton	7/4
Lucas	7/4

The Villan to watch out for on Saturday

Aston Villa is a dreadful, mundane side.  Currently they rank as the third worst attacking side and are second worst on defence, so how have they managed seven points in their first three matches?  Well, other than being quite fortuitous, they rely heavily on their five best players setting up shop in front of the net.

The Birmingham club lives and dies by the performances and defensive cohesiveness of Guzan, Senderos, Vlaar, Westwood, and Delph.  Vlaar is the heart while Delph is the engine and Westwood is the brains of the operation.  Senderos is there just to take care of the leftovers and Guzan is the mouth, his job is to keep everyone talking.  So if you want to stop Villa from initiating attack, take Westwood out of the picture.  If Westwood can't get the ball out to Richardson or N'Zogbia or is unable to break into the Liverpool's third by himself, the Villans will curl up and die a slow death.  Delph will occasionally make a dangerous run forward, but that leaves his side thoroughly exposed on the counter, something in which Liverpool are quite adept, so he'll probably be cautious to do so on Saturday.

For Liverpool to score, they are going to have to penetrate the invisible fortress maintained by the five aforementioned Villa players.  Our best bet is to have Sterling or Coutinho or Markovic or even Suso bring the ball up on the left and go straight at Alan Hutton, if he's not already behind them after a futile attempt at defence or attack.  They are going to have to draw out Senderos and pass the ball back across in the middle to whomever is rushing forward or, God forbid, play the cross game, attempting cross after cross hoping to find Balotelli or Lambert in a welcomed spot in the box.  The latter isn't really Rodger's approach so hopefully we won't resort to such mindless Van Gaalish/'European' tactics.

Villa will rely more on Delph's athleticism to stop Liverpool's attack, which means Westwood will be relied even more on attack.  I highly doubt he'll score, but he is their best 'specialized' passer, though no where near the class of a Gerrard.  Still Liverpool need to respect his abilities and with Skrtel out, hopefully Sakho won't make too many of his runs into the opponent's half.  Lucas cannot continue his horrible form so far this season either, but at least he's more likely to stay back.  In the end. I think Liverpool will prevail, but a nice old fashion whipping would be a much-needed comfort.

Three weeks of hell? Or has the Fixture God shown mercy?

Liverpool play seven matches in three weeks starting with Villa at Anfield on Saturday.  The thing is, all seven are winnable, even with the injuries we have sustained recently.  The 2-0-1 record, 7 points, and current third place standing on the table are flattering to deceive for the Villans.  To say they've been lucky would be the understatement of the season by far.  They were manhandled at Stoke in their first match, but somehow managed a 1-0 win. They needed a red card by Newcastle to get a 0-0 result at home in week two, and barely managed to hold on against Hull at Villa Park two weekends ago.  Karma has to catch up with them at some point and history says it could very well come Saturday.

Next up we host Ludogorets on Tuesday, our easiest Champions League fixture by far.  I can see Rodgers going with a 'weaker' side in this match, hopefully Suso will play a part.  I don't know if he'll go as far as starting Borini, but he could make the bench.  Then we go to Upton Park to take on the Hammers, where Liverpool has won 7 of the last 9 matches and Rodgers has never lost to Allardyce or West Ham.   The London club has the sixth most efficient defence, but sixth worst attacking efficiency, who knows how that could change when they face the equally volatile Hull City on Monday.

Three days later, Liverpool host Middlesborough in the League Cup.  We should definitely see an 'experimental' side here.  If Markovic hasn't broken his duck by then, this will be his best opportunity.  Liverpool have not lost to the Boro at Anfield since March 6, 1976, 38 years ago and before I was born.  The two have not met since 2009, when the then Premier League side beat Liverpool 2-0 at Riverside.  I remember the dismal affair, Nabil El Zhar started for us, Xabi scored an own goal, and Tuncay sealed it in the 63rd minute.  LFC dominated the match in every aspect, winning 9 corners to Boro's 2, having 16 shots, 7 on-target to the home side's 5 and 3 respectively, 84.7% to 65.6% passing, and 72% to 28% possession, but just couldn't score.  It was one of the matches looked back on as costing Liverpool the title that season and baffled many as the Reds had just beat Real Madrid 1-0 at the Bernabeu three days earlier.

One of the harder matches of the lot is Liverpool hosting Everton the Saturday following the Boro fixture.  I'm not really that worried as much as I probably should be when it comes to hosting the lesser Liverpool club.  They have not beaten us in four years, at Anfield in 19 years, and how suspect their defence has been this season, we should be able to get the goals needed for three points.  Any result less than a win will be unacceptable and detrimental to any chance of winning the League.

If a visit from the Blue side of Merseyside isn't the hardest fixture of this bunch, the trip to Basel four days later definitely is.  Kicking off October at the defending Swiss Super League Champions in our second CL fixture isn't the worst of scenarios, but even if our squad isn't as injury depleted as it is now, we will still have fatigued players.  That'll be six matches in 19 days, only Man City have the depth to maintain a high level of football during that kind of run.  The good news is, we've never lost to Basel, that bad news is, we've never beaten Basel and we've only ever played them twice.  The 'Rotblau' currently sit atop the SSL table, are unbeaten in 7 matches with 6 wins, and lead the league in goals scored with 18.  I still think we can get a win here, but will not be too aggrieved if we only manage a draw.  Wins at home are a must in CL group play and that should be enough to get us through to the elimination round.

Finally, we end the Shine on Harvest Moon tour with a visit from West Brom.  The Baggies have baffled us the past few years, a ship that seemed to be righted with our 4-1 dismantling of the West Midlands club, but a title costly 1-1 result at the Hawthorns last February rekindled the recent pain. Before winning at Anfield in two of the last three meetings, WBA hadn't won there since 1965.  Liverpool are 3-1-4 versus West Brom in their last 8 meetings in all comps, but the Baggies have the least efficient defence in the league by quite a distance.  We should be able to end this run with three points as long as we don't beat ourselves.

EPL Fantasy Picks R4: Can't budge on Studge

I have yet to be able to adorn these fantasy picks posts with Liverpool players and now that I can, Sturridge is sidelined.  There is a plethora of chop-lickin' picks this week including Liverpool, Chelsea, Stoke, Southampton, Man U, and even Hull?

Keeper
Asmir Begovic is the best keeper in the league and has the third most efficient defence playing in front of him.  Factor in Stoke is home against Leicester on Saturday and it's a no-brainer.  The Foxes have dropped all the way to second-to-last in attack eficiency, but they should be able to get off some shots on goal, though nothing Begovic can't handle.

Alternates: Speroni (CP), Mignolet (Liv), Forster (Sou), MacGregor (Hull)

Begovic also looks like a solid long-term pick as well with Stoke's upcoming fixtures: vs Leicester, at QPR, home to Newwcastle, at Sunderland, and then hosting Swansea.  Mignolet has a lot of clean sheet chances coming up, the only worry being the massive schedule congestion coming up with Champions League and League Cup play.  LFC play a ridiculous 7 fixtures in the next 23 days.  Other decent picks are DeGea (Man U), Forster (Sou), and if you're feeling particularly cardiac-ish, Burnley's Tom Heaton has 5 weeks of clean sheet chances coming up.

Defenders
A blind monkey could probably pick a productive group of backs this week. The dream team would be Shawcross (Sto), Ivanovic (Che), Lovren (Liv), and Chester (Hull).  The almost dreamy team would be Pieters (Sto), Moreno (Liv), Davies (Hull), and Clyne (Sou).  The 'what the hell they'll probably do well' side would be Terry (Che), Dann (CP), Alderweireld (Sou), and Sakho (or Skrtel) (Liv).  Finally, the 'why not? they are worth a shot' side is Rojo (Man U), Blackett (Man U), Kelly (CP), and Wilson (Sto).  If I could only pick four, I would really role the dice and go with: Terry, Rojo, Kelly, and Pieters, just have a 'weird' feeling about those four.  Is Daley Blind (Man U) listed as a defender? If so, he's worth a shot as well.

In the long term, it's more of who to avoid from Stoke, Liverpool, Man U, and Southampton.  I think I'd go Shawcross, Lovren, Rojo, and oddly enough, Fonte (Sou).  The latter is also worthy of a pick this week as well.  The players I would avoid from those four clubs are Sakho (Liv), mostly because Skrtel will start when he's fit, Bardsley (Sto), Bertrand (Sou),  and Evans (Man U).  The latter three are all capable of having a solid run, but statistically least likely.

Midfielders
The elephant man's bones could pick a decent midfield this week. The ace picks are Sterling (Liv),Fabregas, Oscar, Hazard (Che), Schniederlin (Sou), Zaha (CP), DiMaria (Man U), and Mata (Man U).  Decent picks are Henderson, Gerrard (Liv), Schurrle (Che), Cazorla (Ars), MacArthur, Puncheon (CP), McGeady (Eve), Livermore, Elmohamady, Ramirez (Hull), Ward-Prowse (Sou), N'Zonzi, Whelan, Moses (Sto), Johnson, Larrson, Rodwell, Giaccherini (Sun), Brunt, Gardner, and Morrison (WBA).  Seriously, put all those names in a hat and draw, you'll probably have a better chance than anyone picking a high-scoring group.  Again, if I had a gun to my head and had to go with my gut, I'd take Sterling, Schniederlin, Zaha, and DiMaria.  If you truly want to take a gamble go with either Markovic or Lallana.

Long term picks are the same for defenders, pick from Stoke, Liverpool, Man U, and Southampton with a little sense and it should turn out fine.  The players I would avoid though are Davis, Wanyama (Sou), Herrera (Man U), Allen and Lucas (Liv).  Mainly because they are either inconsistent or not consistently in the line-up.

Forwards
Seriously, if you need help picking a few strikers for your team this week, you should probably just quit.  A dead fish on a ouija board listening to Justin Bieber could pick decent front men this round.  The prime picks are Balotelli (Liv), DeCosta (Che), Rooney, Van Persie (Man U), Pelle, Long (Sou), and Diouf (Sto).  The boss picks are Gayle (CP), Lukaku, Naismith (Eve), Hernandez, Jelavic (Hull), Crouch (Sto), Wickham (Sun), and Berahino (WBA). The 'that guy at Anfield Banter don't know squat' picks are Zarate (WHam), Dzeko (MCity), Mirallas (Eve), Flacao (Man U) and Welbeck (Ars).  If I went with my gut, I'd go with Balotelli, DeCosta, and Gayle.

My long term forwards would be Balotelli, Rooney, Pelle, Long, Diouf, and Bony (Swa).

Make sure to check and make sure your players are not injured and expected to start before the first match on Saturday.  Not my problem otherwise.  Cheers and buena suerte.

Will Liverpool 'throttle' Villa at Anfield? Will Lazar get off the 'Markovic'? Inquiring minds just exploded.

Liverpool are 13-7-5 in league matches at home versus Aston Villa since 1989, but only 1-2-2 in the last five seasons.  They went through a similar run from 1998 to 2003 when they also went 1-2-2.  Take away those two 'slumps', they are 11-3-1 the past 25 years.  Hopefully their current difficulty against the Birmingham club will come to an end after five matches as well.  The last time Liverpool finished 2nd, they lost to Villa at home the following season in the third round, a 1-3 defeat that featured a Lucas Leiva own goal, a rare Curtis Davies header, and a penalty awarded on a Gerrard foul, converted by Ashley Young.

Liverpool is 6-3-1 at home in round 4 EPL matches, their only loss being 2-1 at the hands of Tottenham 21 years ago, August 25, 1993.  A brace by Teddy 'the dirty Sheriff' Sheringham bettered an early clinical finish from new boy Nigel Clough.  The only other time they have ever met Villa in this scenario is 2000-01 with LFC prevailing 3-1.  A first half hat-trick from then 20-year-old and not yet loathed, Michael Owen, was all the home side needed.

Villa is 5-2-5 as visitors in the round four fixture in Prem history, not exactly push-overs.  In fact, they have never lost by more than a goal and have only allowed multiple goals in three of those 12 fixtures.  They've only allowed 3 goals once, an exciting clash with Spurs in 1997-98 that resulted in a 3-2 Tottenham win.  After falling behind 0-1 in the sixth minute, Dwight 'New York, New' Yorke equalized in the 27th minute and Stan 'less is' Collymore gave them the lead in the 68th, but Spurs came roaring back to win on a 77th goal from Ruel 'what the' Fox.

Finally, the previous season 2nd place finisher is 19-2-1 at home against the previous season 15th place finisher in Premier League history.  The only time a 15th has beaten a 2nd at home was in 1996-97, when Sheffield Wednesday overcame a 13th minute penalty from Alan Shearer to win 2-1.  Short-time Villa player and Pompey 'legend' Guy Whittingham scored the winning goal.  The home side in this fixture has won the last 11, outscoring the visitors by a whopping 28 to 4.  In fact, the host club has only allowed 8 goals in all 22 fixtures with 15 clean sheets and only once allowing multiple goals.  Liverpool has twice been involved and unfortunately was part of one of the draws, a 0-0 result versus Everton in 2002-03.

So what do all these numbers say?  Even without Sturridge and Villa's staunch record on the road in round four, Liverpool should prevail. I hope Rodgers gives Markovic a start and if he does, I fully expect him to get off the mark.  I'll go out on a limb and say Liverpool 3-0 with goals from Lazar, Balotelli, and Sterling.

Spurs 0, LFC 3: Five things learnt

1. Mamadou Sakho is a bad influence.
In the first two matches, Lovren was rarely caught out of position, but against Spurs it happened twice and Liverpool were lucky not to surrender a goal.  Sakho uses his athletic ability to cloak his 'bad' positioning, but Lovren doesn't have that luxury.  It was also the first match that the Croatian played on the right.

2. You shall not pass!
Tottenham dominated possession and were able to move around the ball quite freely, that is until they got close to Liverpool's box.  Spurs managed just 9 of 22 passes into the box, that was 1.9% of their passes completed and 0.4% attempted, resulting in only 3 chances created.  Liverpool, on the other hand, attempted just 10 passes into the box (2.8%), completing 4 (1.4%), creating a chance and another that lead to a goal.

3. Sometimes efficiency doesn't matter that much
Especially when you can be effective on the counter.  All three goals came on the counter and if we are able to 'build a fort' around the box, opponents will just get frustrated.  That should lead to even more counter opportunities as we take advantage of their errors and lack of equal pace. Here are the efficiency stats for each side:

	att	def	ovr
Tottenham	0.633	0.679	0.656
Liverpool	0.54	0.645	0.593

As you can see, Tottenham were superior, they just weren't able to take advantage of their chances.  That could have been due to Liverpool's defence or Spurs' incompetence.

4. Do I really have to start calculating 'forced back passes'?

Tottenham were forced to make 94 backward passes in Liverpool's third out of 121 completed overall.  They attempted 95 and 160 respectively, which means that 38 times the ball either went out of bounds or changed possession.  It also means they were only able to continue their forward attack on 27 passes.

5. Liverpool can play defence when they want to.

28 tackles, 14 interceptions, 45 clearances, and 2 blocked shots, that's quite a line.  Not to mention the clean sheet.  The good part is we can play better and will need to when we have to play the real contenders.  The moments of communication breakdown were quite evident versus Spurs and others will punish us for that.

Sturridge remains least efficient on Liverpool, N'Zogbia now worst overall

*Only players with 180 minutes played qualify.

Sturridge is still the least overall efficient player LFC player at 0.492.  He has averaged about 12 'give-aways' per match and a 78.1% pass completion percentage.  True strikers are always going to be 'middle of the pack' at best as they take more chances and are usually out-numbered in the final third. Jovetic is the highest rated and he's 71st in the league, Sturridge ranks 155th out of 191.  Goals don't matter much, even if Sturridge had scored 10 goals in the first three matches, his per would have only went up to 0.565, good for only 126th, which happens to be Alexis Sanchez' current ranking.

The ten worst overall per:

C. N'Zogbia	0.338
L. Jutkiewicz	0.355
M. Phillips	0.358
C. Wickham	0.361
M. Biram Diouf	0.390
Kieran Tripper	0.394
C. Cole	0.399
Loic Remy	0.409
Y. Bolasie	0.419
J. Schlupp	0.420

I didn't realize N'Zogbia still played  in the league, I also can't believe he's only 28.  Seems like he's been around forever.  Loic Remy was clearly unhappy at QPR, watch how miraculously his stats go up at Chelsea.  Not only because he got out of Loftus Road, but now he's got world class service from Fabregas & Co.

Liverpool has played hardest schedule, boasts best defence

Not being too pleased with defensive rating results after matches this past weekend, I decided to tweak my formula to consider strength of opponent.  Mainly I just wanted to make it so I could 'prove' Liverpool have been the best defensive side and that Man U are not as good as my ratings say.  Unfortunately, I could only manage the former.

Here are the most difficult schedules according to opponent's attack efficiency:

team	opp ape
Liverpool	0.66872
Leicester	0.65853
Burnley	0.65069
C Palace	0.62751
WBA	0.61973

I didn't even factor in home field advantage, which would more than likely pad Liverpool's lead at the top of the table considering they have played at City and at Spurs. In the end though, it is a non-factor since all clubs will have played each other home and away, but I will probably start factoring it in after match day five.

The least difficult schedules?

club	opp ape
Arsenal	0.52008
Hull City	0.53570
Chelsea	0.54696
Newcastle	0.55131
Tottenham	0.57160

Arsenal, far and away, have had the easiest walk in the park, but have only managed 5 points in 3 matches.  Is Hull relegation bound?  Their second half against Villa suggests not, but they still lost and their schedule just gets harder from here on out.

So here are the adjusted defensive rankings:

club	adj dpe
Liverpool	0.93203
Burnley	0.93190
Stoke	0.90287
Man U	0.87822
Leicester	0.87333

Burnley and Leicester are here on strength of schedule and the fact that two of their first three matches have been at home.  Stoke is apparently the real deal as they showed at City Saturday and Man U is basically here because they dominated two crap sides, only managing draws though, and lost to a somewhat decent Swansea attack.

Worst defences:

club	adj dpe
Aston Villa	0.798
Swansea	0.805
Hull City	0.806
Tottenham	0.810
Newcastle	0.816

Villa come to Anfield next and if LFC take them seriously, it should be a route.

Skrtel top defensively, Flamini takes over attack & overall

Martin Skrtel didn't even touch the pitch on Sunday, but he still went to the top of the defensive efficieny table.  That's what happen when everyone else falters.  If he doesn't play at least 60 minutes in two weeks time when we host Villa, he'll no longer qualify.

player	dpe
M. Skrtel	0.905
M. Flamini	0.899
C. Chambers	0.889
J. O'Shea	0.888
P. McShane	0.878
R. Ferdinand	0.877
F. Coloccini	0.877
D. Lovren	0.873
V. Kompany	0.873
P. Jagielka	0.870

 Flamini has produced an absolutely ridiculous 95.2% pass completion rate in his two matches for Arsenal, which helped him take top in both attack and overall efficiency.  The most excellent Morgan Schniederlin makes his debut in attack rankings and I expect him to be there for the long run.

player	ppe
M. Flamini	0.856
S. Nasri	0.855
Y. Toure	0.838
D. Fletcher	0.813
S. Cazorla	0.805
N. Bentaleb	0.803
Cesc Fàbregas	0.789
E. Capoue	0.788
Schneiderlin	0.785
G. Barry	0.784

John O'Shea may be a bit surprising, but he rarely makes mistakes, and Capoue is a ball-moving machine, second in the league only to Aaron Ramsey with 339 touches but leads with 301 pass attempts.  Gerrard dropped to 33rd overall, by the way.

player	per
M. Flamini	0.878
Y. Toure	0.837
J. O'Shea	0.834
S. Nasri	0.829
C. Chambers	0.829
F. Coloccini	0.829
E. Capoue	0.824
D. Fletcher	0.824
Fernando	0.821
V. Kompany	0.818

Without Dean Hammond and Andy King, Leicester would probably be pointless, as would there season, but those two have carried the foxes thus far.

player	eot
D. Hammond	0.207
J. O'Shea	0.206
Andy King	0.202
David Jones	0.192
J. Olsson	0.182
Ron Vlaar	0.179
Dean Marney	0.179
G. Whelan	0.179
F. Coloccini	0.169
P. Senderos	0.168

Skrtel is Liverpool's most valuable player with 0.148 eot, followed by Lovren at 0.108 and Gerrard at 0.100.

Tottenham 0, Liverpool 3: Sometimes moments of madness...

They dominated possession, had a higher pass completion percentage, and were superior in the air, but Tottenham still limped away 3-0 losers.  How could this be? Counter attack and positioning.  All three of Liverpool goals were due to anticipating our opponent's movements and responding quickly.  That takes practice and talent, an ode to our mad Professor Rodgers.

What made it most impressive is that Gerrard had an uncharacteristically poor performance on attack, but made up for it on defence.  He completed just 71.1% of his passes, his lowest amount for a long time, but did have 3 tackles and 8 clearances.  Without some of those clearances, it may have been a closer match.

Gerrard's bi-polar display was quite indicative of many other LFC 'stars'.  Sterling was tremendous on the ball, scored a great goal, but his passing was poor (69.7%)and he really should have had scored from point blank range.  Lovren was impressive as well with 4 tackles, 2 interceptions, and 13 clearances, but his passing was also dreadful and he had to make two potential goal-saving tackles that were probably his fault to begin with.

Balotelli and Allen were not at their best, but Manquillo and Sturridge were the worst of the bunch.  The former was clearly rattled and wasted passes throughout, while the latter seemed to be trying to hard to make things happen.  I don't want to say he is trying to make up for the loss of Suarez, but he is, and it isn't working.  He's got to let the match come to him.

Henderson, Can, and Markovic played well, the last two in a cameo capacity.  I can't wait to see how the Serbian does in a full debut, he's very confident and smooth on the ball, which is entertaining to watch.  My man of the match though was Moreno, but not just because of his lung-bursting stunner.  He also added 4 tackles, 9 clearances, and a passing percentage of  87.1%, when others failed to post decent passing stats.

This was a must-win for several reasons, mostly for the confidence of the team and supporters.  If we can go into a place like White Hart Lane and not play to the best of our ability, but still come away with an impressive 3-0 win, just imagine who we can beat at our best.  Fortunately our next 12 fixtures are favorable, hopefully we'll win all of them and be at our confident best when Chelsea come to town November 8th.