Sunday, June 22, 2014

How good is Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz?

Before the World Cup match between Uruguay and England, Roy Hodgson said that Luis Suarez is not yet 'world class'.  Well, he found out the hard way how wrong he was.  Suarez may not have had the greatest match, but his world class ability shone through.

Let's see how he sizes up against some other players considered 'world class'.  Charted below is their previous seasons in their respective leagues except for Falcao, his stats are from his previous and last season in La Liga with Atletico Madrid.

SuarezMessiRonaldoBaleCostaFalcao
age272629242528
app (sub)3329(2)3024(3)34(1)34
mins296224982537206529522896
goals312831152728
assists121191231
chances877547404532
npg900.940.790.890.660.670.62
gcp901.31.41.31.20.910.9
ccp902.62.81.61.81.41
pass %74.88580.376.375.579.9
bp %44.144.656.452.26159.4
sacc %44.846.343.134.15043.1
shot %17.117.514.417.12522.8
TTI901713.112.911.515.512.8
SturridgeY. ToureAgueroRVPRooneyRibery
age243126302831
app (sub)26(3)3520(3)18(3)27(2)18(4)
mins226729171526157824461635
goals212017121710
assists79631010
chances294034165656
npg900.830.4310.570.510.55
gcp901.10.91.40.8611.1
ccp901.21.220.92.12.8
pass %79.390.184.976.780.183.9
bp %53.435.15650.948.450.8
sacc %42.442.25033.942.649.2
shot %21.231.319.819.416.817
TTI901110.211.810.515.417.8

Suarez comes in 2nd in non-penalty goals per 90, 3rd in goals created per 90, and 3rd in chances created per 90.  He also finished 4th in shot accuracy.  Unfortunately he had the worst pass rate, but he did have the second lowest back pass percentage, bettered only by Yaya Toure.  His TTI90 was second worst after Franck Ribery, mainly due to bad pass attempts.

Overall he is bested by Messi alone, but the Argentinian's stats are padded by 6 penalty goals where Suarez had none.  If you consider the six penalties that Ronaldo converted, Suarez is much better overall.  He already trumps the defending Ballon D'or winner in nearly every category, but take away spot kicks and CR7 is not even part of the conversation.

Speaking of the Ballon D'or, if Suarez can continue his scorching pace, Messi should be the only other player considered.  How they and their teams perform in the World Cup is probably on what the award will hinge.  Both are off to great starts, but Uruguay will have to beat Italy if they want to advance to the knock-out stages.  Suarez will probably once again have to prove his 'world class' if they are to do so.

Saturday, June 21, 2014

Daley Blind is the epitome of World Cup sensationalism

There are reports that Daley Blind may be one of the left backs on Rodgers' transfer wish list, especially after his two solid World Cup performances for the Dutch, but is really that good?  Let's take a look at his output last season for Ajax and compare it to last season for Flanagan and the previous campaign of Jose Enrique.

BlindFlanaganEnrique
age242128
app(subs)292325(4)
mins250318902257
goals112
assist114
chances371326
gcp900.070.10.24
ccp901.330.621.04
pass%88.183.780.4
bp%38.742.637
sacc%28.642.936.4
shot%3.614.39.1
tack pm2.73.42.5
tack %50.445.775.3
int pm2.61.71.2
clear pm23.32.5
dribb past pm1.31.70.3
bs pm0.20.20.1
adwon pm1.51.30.4
adwon%65.746.838.2
own goals000
TTI9010.99.215.6

Overall, I would have to agree Blind is a slightly better player than Flanagan and Enrique.  He is clearly better at passing, chance creating, and aerial duels, but should work on his shot selection.  The problem I have with Blind is how much will he cost and is it worth bringing in a slightly better player, especially one who is currently riding the World Cup hype train though his club stats aren't anywhere near someone like Ricardo Rodriguez?

A couple of things that should be factored in is that he not only plays in the Eredivisie, but he plays for the best team in the league.  Ajax has won the league four straight years now, though only by an average of five points.  Ajax and PSV usually have the best talent in the league, so his stats, especially his passing are probably skewed by having the most talented teammates.

His age should be taken into account as well.  He is 24, three years Flanagan's senior.  Who is to say Flanagan won't be as good or better if he can get the playing time over the next few seasons?  Flanagan seems to improve slightly every match and his stats from the Prem last year are not too shabby considering his inexperience.

I'm not saying it would hurt to add another left back, we are gonna need at least three players at every position to get through next year's schedule congestiation if we want to be successful, but why bring in just another good player when there's a Rodriguez out there?  Blind is satisfactory, but Rodgers can't get caught up in all the World Cup ballyhoo.

Ricardo Rodriguez would be a brilliant addition

We are obviously shopping for a left back with reports that we have bid for Alberto Moreno and are also looking at Marcos Rojo & Daley Blind, but Ricardo Rodriguez of VfL Wolfsburg & Switzerland may be the best value.  I'm not big on adding World Cup phenoms, but Rodriguez has also shown his worth at the club level. Here are his stats from the Bundesliga last season:

app(subs)34
mins3060
goals5
assist9
chances78
gcp900.41
ccp902.3
pass%80.5
bp%44.6
sacc%55.3
shot%13.2
tack pm3.1
tack %57.7
int pm1.9
off won pm0.4
clear pm2.8
dribb past pm0.8
bs pm0.4
adwon pm3.1
adwon%56.2
own goals0
TTI9011.1

If we are going to splash major cash for a player, Rodriguez would be the one.  He is arguably the best left back in the world right now.  His chances created per match, pass %, shot selection, tackling success, and aerial duels won are phenomenal.  Paying £30m for him is very reasonable as he remarkably will turn just 22 this August.

His TTI90 does worry me, but he more than makes up for it with his ccp90.  Imagine him feeding Sturridge and Suarez.  We could even play him in front of Flanagan or Enrique on the wing and allow him to utilize his creative abilities and worry less about his defensive responsibilities.

Alberto Moreno isn't worth £16m

Sure, he's 21, but will he develop into the all-round left back we need? Let's compare him to Jon Flanagan and Jose Enrique over the last two seasons.

MorenoFlanaganEnrique
2012-1313-1410-1213-1412-1313-14
app(subs)12(3)27(2)122325(4)6(2)
mins10832414100418902257604
goals030120
assist100142
chances819513268
gcp900.80.1100.10.240
ccp900.670.710.450.621.041.2
pass%78.178.979.483.780.480.4
bp%4536.5-42.63740.8
sacc%2017042.936.433.3
shot%013014.39.10
tack pm1.91.81.73.42.51.3
tack %37.839.6-45.775.353.3
int pm3.12.51.81.71.21.1
off won pm0.300.20.10.20.1
clear pm2.81.51.53.32.52.5
dribb past pm1.10.80.81.70.30.3
bs pm0.30.30.20.20.10.1
adwon pm0.70.90.51.30.40.3
adwon%47.85052.646.838.222.2
own goals000000
TTI9010.48.569.215.611.3
*Note: Jon Flanagan's '1st season' are his stats from league appearances from 2010-12.*

At a glance, Moreno is not much of an upgrade from Flanagan and no where near as good as a healthy Enrique.  All he really brings to the table is a better interception and blocked shot rate, which is admirable, but not worth £16m.

Enrique does turnover the ball significantly more than the other two, but his back pass rate tells me that it is probably primarily in the opposition third and his chances created per 90 somewhat makes up for his risk-taking.

We definitely need more coverage at left back, but I don't think Alberto Moreno is the answer.  He would probably be a solid addition to the squad, but if you are going to spend £16m, you should be buying a Sakho and not an Aspas.

Friday, June 20, 2014

Suarez was not even the best LFC player on the pitch for England vs Uruguay

In fact, I would argue he was the worst.  It's amazing how a little luck and a lot of skill can cloak such a poor performance.  Not to take anything away from his brilliant finishing, but if it wasn't for a great pass from Cavani and an errant header from Gerrard, Suarez would probably be ridiculed for his erroneous-filled effort. A look at the stats is even more damning:

SuarezJohnsonSturridgeSterlingGerrardHenderson
mins889090649087
goals200000
assists010000
chances130011
gcp902.0510000
ccp901.0230011.03
pass%678373867489
bp%65.232.234.65029.321.7
cross att1131171
succ cross000020
cross %000028.60
sacc%5006000100
shot%5000000
take on0/11/23/55/61/11/2
take %0506083.310050
dispo321501
offside201000
fouled113100
fouls301310
tack 120031
tack %5067006050
int000011
off won000000
clear230043
clear %10010000100100
shot blk000010
adwon221221
adwon%50405066100100
TTI17131610128

Suarez was the inferior passer by a mile, completing only 67% of his passes despite 65.2% were towards his own goal.  He also attempted and failed 11 crosses, that's the same amount of all the other LFC players combined considering Gerrard had two successful.  He also had the highest TTI and that doesn't even account for crosses that changed possession.

If I had to pick the best player, statistically speaking, it would be Jordan Henderson.  His passing was outstanding, especially considering his incredibly low back pass rate and the fact that he lead all players with 60 attempts.  If he had only scored on his lone attempt, we would be talking about him today as the MotM instead of Suarez.

The only player who gave Suarez a run for his money was Sterling.  Had he not been subbed out in the 64th minute, he very well could have had a higher TTI, but his passing and take-on numbers were both superior.

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