Friday, July 4, 2014

Agger was our best defender last season, Sakho was worst

Last season Brendan Rodgers utlilized 16 different line-ups on the back line.  I remember back in the day when Benitez used to change the line-up that often, he was ridiculed as a 'tinkerer'.  The truth is, he was ahead of his time and most successful managers started to do the same including Mourinho and Ferguson. Nowadays it's the status quo for clubs involved in multiple competitions, especially Europe (Sorry Man U).

 Rodgers, though, had a ton of injury issues to deal with last season.  Sakho, Enrique, Johnson, Toure, and Agger all had injury spells, some multiple.  Here are those line-ups along with their stats:

MGAGAPMCS
JohnsonToureAggerEnrique200.002
JohnsonSkrtelAggerEnrique100.001
JohnsonSkrtelAggerCissohko200.002
JohnsonSkrtelSakhoFlanagan320.671
ToureSkrtelAggerSakho111.000
FlanaganSkrtelToureCissohko441.001
JohnsonSkrtelAggerFlanagan551.002
ToureSkrtelSakho571.400
FlanaganSkrtelAggerJohnson231.501
WisdomSkrtelSakhoEnrique122.000
JohnsonSkrtelAggerFlanagan242.000
JohnsonSkrtelSakhoCissohko122.000
JohnsonSkrtelSakhoAgger122.000
JohnsonSkrtelSakhoFlanagan5102.000
JohnsonSkrtelToureCissohko252.500
JohnsonSkrtelToureFlanagan133.000

Those are sorted by goals allowed per match and if we break it down per player:

msgagapmcscs%
Agger16150.9480.50
Cissohko9111.2230.33
Johnson27361.3390.33
Toure15201.3330.20
Skrtel36501.3980.22
Flanagan22311.4150.23
Sakho17261.5310.06

It's pretty clear our most valuable player on the back line is Agger.  It's not even close.  In fact, we only had 2 clean sheets without him.  What's disappointing is Sakho appears to be the biggest liability.  One clean sheet in 17 starts and the highest goal allowed per match average at 1.53.

I'm not sure what Rodgers plans on doing since it was pretty clear by the end of last season that Skrtel and Sakho were his first choice centre backs.  If they continue last year's form, that's not acceptable.  Agger is our best defensive back and I don't know what else proof the gaffer needs.  We will not win the league next year unless we shore up our defense, no matter what hard decisions need to be made.  I like Sakho, but if that means sitting him, so be it.

The age-old debate: Coutinho vs Ozil

Ever since Michael Owen trolled Arsenal fans by claiming Coutinho is superior to Ozil, an endless debate has spawned.  One thing before we look at their complete stats from last season.  They usually don't play the same position, but when Coutinho plays central midfield, Ozil's primary position, the Brazilian has the higher production.  I'll explain more after the stats.

CoutinhoOzil
age2225
app (sub)28(5)25(1)
mins23232139
goals55
assists79
chances6476
npg900.190.21
gcp900.470.59
ccp902.53.2
ap900.270.38
ccv10.811.9
pass %80.688
bp %36.741.5
sacc %28.760
shot %716.7
TTI901112.4

As you can see, Ozil edges out in most every stat, but he should.  He's older, more experienced and usually plays the same position, central attacking midfielder.  Which takes us back to my aforementioned point.

Coutinho played 16 matches at central midfield and in those matches he scored 3 goals and served up 7 assists.  At that rate, had he played all his matches at that spot, he would have probably had more impressive stats than his Arsenal counterpart.

It's all speculation in the end, but to be honest, if Coutinho puts up the same numbers as Ozil in three years, I will be slightly disappointed.  He's nearly at that level now and he's potentially much better.  Rodgers wouldn't trade the Brazilian for the German and neither would I.

Memphis Depay: The Dutch Raheem Sterling

If you haven't been impressed with 20-year-old Dutch attacking midfielder, Memphis Depay, at the World Cup, than there's plenty more to drool over.  First off, one of my favorite sites, StatsBomb, wrote an excellent article about how he may be a great replacement for Suarez.  Here's his stats from last season at PSV compared to some of our players and one soon-to-be former player:

DepaySterlingCoutinhoLallanaSuarez
age2019222627
app (sub)3224(9)28(5)37(1)33
mins26942220232330822962
goals1295931
assists857612
chances8651646887
npg900.370.360.190.260.94
gcp900.670.570.470.441.3
ccp902.882.062.51.92.6
ap900.270.20.270.210.37
ccv9.49.710.811.114.2
pass %77.581.780.684.674.8
bp %44.146.836.750.344.1
sacc %48.448.928.741.444.8
shot %9.12071817.1
TTI9011.612.11113.917

The thing that stands out most is his chances created per 90, he is the best of the bunch, even better than Suarez.  Speaking of 'El Conejo Loco', Depay comes second only to him in non-penalty goals per 90, goals created per 90, and assists per 90.  Only Coutinho keeps better care of the ball, but not by much.



For some reason he's only valued at £4.4m at http://www.transfermarkt.co.uk. I'm sure that was pre-World Cup, because it would be idiotic for PSV to let him go for less than £15m.  Though unlike Lallana, I wouldn't mind spending upwards of £27m for him.

Good riddance Suarez, we'll be better without you

If Suarez leaves, and it's looking highly likely, we'll be fine.  We still have Sturridge, Sterling, Coutinho, Gerrard, and Henderson, all but one are young and all will be improved.  We don't need to necessarily make up 31 goals, we could actually play better defense.  If we would have prevented just 5 more goals last year, we would have won the league.  Last season, we lead the league in defensive errors with 42, 13 which directly resulted in a goal, that obviously has to stop.

If there ever was an example to follow,  look no further than Ateltico Madrid from last season.  They only scored 77 goals, 27 less than Real, and 23 less than Barça.  They also only allowed 26 and committed just 17 defensive errors, which was not best in league, but only 5 off and light years better than 42.  They also lost Falcao and Martin Demichelis from the season before.

Falcao scored 28 goals for Atletico in the 2012-13 season, that was a ridiculous 43.1% of their total output of 65.  Suarez was 'only' responsible for 30.1% of our goals last season,  but his 13 assists means he took part in 42.6%.  Atletico rebounded with Diego Costa and added David Villa, we have Sturridge and added Rickie Lambert.

In fact, over the years, Atletico has lost a number of key players.  Since summer 2007, they've lost Falcao, Martin Demichelis, Eduardo Salvio, Serio Aguero, David De Gea, Diego Forlan, Jose Manuel Jurado, Simao Sabrosa, Maxi Rodriguez, Martin Petrov, and of course, Torres.  In that time they've won a Copa Del Rey, 2 Europa Cups, and 2 UEFA Super Cups.  Their progression in La Liga since 2009-10 has been consistent to say the least, they went from 9th to 7th to 5th to 3rd to winning it last season.  

They also reduced their goals allowed each season starting in 09-10 they conceded 61, then 53 in 10-11, 46 the next season, and 31 the year before last.  The thing is, their goal scoring showed no such progression save last season.  Over the same period from 2009-10 to 2012-13, they scored 57, 62, 53, and 65 in each successive season.

Brendan Rodgers appears to have solved our goal scoring issues, but now he needs to focus on defense.  I think we'll be better because our defenders, Sakho in particular, should be more familiar with on another.  Communication appeared to lack last season, I just hope that changes.  Also, the addition of Emre Can gives us another option at defensive midfielder, which is the most important defender on the pitch.

Suarez leaving is far from the end of the world.  Yes, he scored and created goals, but he also gave away the ball an awfully lot.  Counter attack goals killed us last year, particularly late in the season.  We can make up for Suarez by playing smarter defense and most of all, holding on to the ball longer and making smarter passes, though we will need to add at least one more attack-minded player.  Hopefully that's Shaqiri, Sanchez, or in the very least, Memphis Depay.

Thursday, July 3, 2014

Forget Lovren, we've got Kevin Stewart now

It is baffling that the signing of Kevin Stewart is deemed 'news'.  What is more pathetic though is when a blog sensationalizes and exaggerates to trick people into visiting their site by calling Stewart a 'Prem' defender.  He is 20-years-old and has played a grand total of zero Prem minutes.  Unless Rodgers thinks he'll be some sort of late bloomer, what's the point?  Is Ilori and/or Coates, as long as the latter is here, going to get a chance?  We need a player who is going to challenge for a starting spot and Stewart isn't that.

Dejan Lovren, on the other hand, could. The 25-year-old Southampton and Serbian international anchored a very solid Saints defense last season.  In fact, in my overall defense ranking table, the South Coast side finished third, only a point from being tied top with Chelsea and Crystal Palace.  As I have said, I don't think individual defensive stats hold much water, but I do think in the very least, you can find fault and strength. Here are Lovren's stats from last season along with those of Sakho, Skrtel, Agger, and Old Man Toure.

LovrenSakhoSkrtelAggerToure
age2524292934
app(subs)3118(1)3616(4)15(5)
mins27871478322114211443
goals21720
assist10112
chances42727
npgp900.070.060.20.130
gcp900.10.060.220.190.13
ccp900.130.120.20.130.44
ap900.0300.030.060.13
ccv0.2300.150.460.3
pass%8292.590.889.186.4
bp%21.522.623.718.720.5
sacc%15.21053.342.814.3
shot%91046.728.60
tp9021.61.41.72.1
tack %57.871.45055.665.1
intp902.71.61.71.30.9
clrp907.78.311.57.29.2
dribpp900.50.30.40.30.4
bsp900.30.41.10.50.8
adwp903.32.93.62.82.7
adwon%61.25670.165.250.6
TTI9010.45.65.255.8

So what does Lovren do well? Interceptions and aerial duels certainly stand out.  Though it's kind of disconcerting that he's easily taken off the dribble more than the other four, especially Toure.  It questions his pace and quickness.  He also turns over the ball significantly more and he had less touches than Skrtel, so the 'Suarez' factor does not come into play.

Is he worth the reported £20m that it may cost to bring him in? Absolutely not.  If he alone was the reason the Saints defense was so good, yes, but they have/had Schneiderlin, Wanyama, Fonte, Clyne, and Shaw.  None of those five, save Shaw, is worth that much, and that's only because Shaw is 19.  I'd rather us just try and sigh Steven Caulker. 

Emre Can will be boss

I remember back in the day when Momo Sissoko galloped across the pitch to and fro, wreaking havoc, it's just too bad he couldn't hold on to the ball.  Well Emre Can, our latest signee, can and does, he just needs to sharpen his passing skills and decision-making.  Here's how he matches up with his new teammates (stats from last season, Can played at Leverkusen in the Bundesliga):

CanLucasAllenGerrardHenderson
age202725*3424
app (sub)24(5)20(7)15(9)33(1)35
mins21901896144328953129
goals301134
assists300137
chances1613186762
npg900.1200.060.090.11
gcp900.2500.060.810.32
ccp900.70.621.132.11.78
ap900.12000.40.2
ccv0.17000.190.11
pass %77.990.886.785.987.1
bp %39.630.33830.641.2
sacc %31.42242.151.70.15
shot %1205.327.10.12
TTI9013.27.99.810.99.7
tp903.14.24.232.4
t%44.8435652.242.8

Can certainly holds his own with the exception of passing and turnovers, but he's only 20 and the guidance of Rodgers should help.  His versatility is what makes him exciting, he clearly is more of a box-to-box midfielder, but can play at the holding spot as well.  He sort of reminds me of a young Gerrard or Yaya Toure, when the latter was at Olympiacos & Monaco.

The thing Can will have to display most of all is discipline.  If he's playing defensive midfield, he must be cautious about going forward, but I'd rather see him be something of a factor on the attack unlike Lucas, who prefers not to get involved except via long balls.  Man City's DMs go forward all the time, but when you pair a Yaya Toure with either Fernandinho or Javi Garcia, you always have coverage.  So does that mean we should start Lucas and Can together? If it gets to that, it probably means Gerrard and Henderson are both out due to injury or discipline, which I don't think anyone wishes for.  It would be great to see it as an experiment in a cup tie though.

Another interesting aspect is that Can can play left back.  He did so for 10 matches last season at Leverkusen.  In fact he got some of his highest match ratings on whoscored playing that position:







His talent alone makes him a steal at £9.75m, but his versatility may make Rodgers look like a genius.

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